Prospect Info: At 18th Overall the Winnipeg Jets Select C Chaz Lucius

[buyinnow]

article

 

[John Agar]

I was talking with Chaz Lucious over the fence the other day…

Chaz mentioned that he knows Benjamin Doveridge is welcome to his opinion… but says his Turrette’s makes him say stuff he regrets sometimes…

Chaz asked Me to ask Garrett for the Statistical Calculator he borrowed from him this spring…

Lucious suggested Garrett should know better…

 

[FonRiesen]

How about this: Every single NHL team has an AHL affiliation which means they DO ALL SPEND MONEY on player development. Running a 76 game AHL season, and paying players 75-250K USD is an absolute investment in player development. These AHL teams all have full coaching staffs, trainers, doctors, etc ... so again, that would be considered a tangible investment in future prospects.

In my humble opinion, player development is much more of an organizational philosophy than it is something you can simply throw money at. Unlike European soccer, NHL teams have no rights or access to players until they are drafted. Conversely, a European Soccer Academy will have hundreds of teenagers in their academies and guide 100% of their skills / training / game play. As they grow older, they play for the (U14 / U16 / U18) clubs etc. whereby only a small select few actually ever make it to the BIG team. That is player development.

In the NHL, 99% of drafted players are committed to either: NCAA, USHL, OHL, WHL, QMJHL, KHL (VHL/MHL), Liiga, SEL. All these teams have their own coaching staff, dedicated trainers, etc. 90% of a kids development will happen within their club team (not affiliated to NHL).

Yes, NHL teams will host a week long rookie camp and speak to the importance of proper training routines, nutrition, etc., but if you think any of this stuff is *new* to players, you're not aware of hockey in 2021. These elite kids come from hockey academies elite programs and have been living this world since they've been 13 years old (probably younger). If they don't make the NHL, they continue to play with their club team where they develop some more.

Not trying to diminish the role of Keane or Jimmy Roy - I'm sure it's fantastic for the kids to have them as resources. But you're kidding yourself if you think Chaz Lucius will get more from a few phone conversations than he will from the Minnesota Gophers elite NCAA programming.

True and tangible hockey development by an NHL club is likely token at best UNTIL the player actually starts playing in the AHL at which point a true hands on approach can commence.

That's a good point - I agree, there's a lot of developmental support that is less direct. To be fair, though, 4 teams don't have an active AHL affiliate this year (Seattle's will activate next year) - St Louis (sharing with Vancouver), Nashville (sharing with Carolina), and Florida (sharing with TB).

And your post is a bit misleading - some AHL/NHL teams have the same owners, but others are completely separate org's and it's more of a rights' agreement with NHL paying their affiliate the salaries of the players they're loaning to the AHL.

A GUIDE TO THE UNIQUE NHL AHL RELATIONSHIP - Beyond the Glass

As an additional data point, only 26 teams have ECHL affiliates - and that relationship is (logically) even more distant.

Back to Chaz - I'm excited for him and I'm grateful he's being developed by Minnesota. The article was interesting - it sounds like he was the reason the NCAA changed recruiting rules since he was offered a scholarship so young! (Thanks for getting us back on topic, @buyinnow!)

 

[Jimmyjets]

I'm just glad the Cruz Lucious is projected to go as a late 1st or early 2nd round pick so we should be able to continue the trend of drafting brothers.

 

[Guffman]

What's ludicrous is being a rookie poster and challenging a veteran poster who actually works in the NHL.

Exactly. For example, rookie posters should believe things like Dano and Petan being budding superstars based on superficial “advanced” data spouted by a veteran poster.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Exactly. For example, rookie posters should believe things like Dano and Petan being budding superstars based on superficial “advanced” data spouted by a veteran poster.

I think you'd agree there's a considerable difference between attempting to predict the future of a prospect & stating emphatically the way an organization runs their business.

There's no parallel to be made.

 

[Boxertim]

I think you'd agree there's a considerable difference between attempting to predict the future of a prospect & stating emphatically the way an organization runs their business.

There's no parallel to be made.

i think the more reasonable response would have been

'i come here to bitch about the team and make grandiose statements. the last thing i care about is how often the player comes out of the corners with the puck when the opponent is a leftie drafted out of the ohl.' these fancy stats guys ruin alot of good conversation.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not similar situations at all.

You’re only paying $700k per year for a player you carry on your NHL roster all year. AHL makes roughly a 10th of your NHL-salary, and CHL/Euro prospects aren’t being paid by the team at all (besides signing bonuses). Your 50-60k “foot soldiers” at work also will likely stay with your organization for years and are not represented by professionals who’s job is to maximize their career earnings.

Garret has worked within the industry and is pretty dialed in — if he claims this is the case, I believe him.

Just to add - they also know that their prospects are generally being well coached where they are. A lot of the development is being taken care of for them.

Edit: Stated in greater length by several others.
Not much recent discussion of Chaz Lucius here.

 

[Oilpeg]

Just to add - they also know that their prospects are generally being well coached where they are. A lot of the development is being taken care of for them.

Edit: Stated in greater length by several others.
Not much recent discussion of Chaz Lucius here.

I'm still stuck on the fact that Chaz has a brother named Cruz...

 

[Duke749]

I'm still stuck on the fact that Chaz has a brother named Cruz...

Ain’t that some shit!

 

[garret9]

Get serious, this is the NHL where the league minimum salary is $700,000+. You don’t spend that much money on a foot soldier and not invest in them. At work, we invest in our entry level people and they make $50-60,000. There is not a chance that any NHL team is so careless that they just expect teenagers to develop themselves. That’s ludicrous.

It's not that they expect them to develop themselves. It's that they think the ones most worth it will have the "character to earn it themselves." Slight difference.

Related, I know of a different team where a person I know was arguing against the typical convention:
Guy I know: We should draft X because he's really good
Scout: He's a bad skater though. Can't skate, won't play
Guy I know to skills guy: You are one of the best skating coaches in the world, could you fix him
Skills guy: probably
* I don't know the rest of the conversation but the team did not end up drafting him and now the kid will likely play in the NHL*

 

[Atoyot]

It's not that they expect them to develop themselves. It's that they think the ones most worth it will have the "character to earn it themselves." Slight difference.

Related, I know of a different team where a person I know was arguing against the typical convention:
Guy I know: We should draft X because he's really good
Scout: He's a bad skater though. Can't skate, won't play
Guy I know to skills guy: You are one of the best skating coaches in the world, could you fix him
Skills guy: probably
* I don't know the rest of the conversation but the team did not end up drafting him and now the kid will likely play in the NHL*

Kaliev, Hague, Sokolov? And no I don't expect you to say who it was

 

[ps241]

It's not that they expect them to develop themselves. It's that they think the ones most worth it will have the "character to earn it themselves." Slight difference.

Related, I know of a different team where a person I know was arguing against the typical convention:
Guy I know: We should draft X because he's really good
Scout: He's a bad skater though. Can't skate, won't play
Guy I know to skills guy: You are one of the best skating coaches in the world, could you fix him
Skills guy: probably
* I don't know the rest of the conversation but the team did not end up drafting him and now the kid will likely play in the NHL*

A wise friend of mine had access to many of the high end skating coaches and they had a common answer on player skating development (NHL on down). "Show me a player mentally and physically willing and we can improve their skating". Conversely, if a player doesn't buy in nothing is going to happen. Its not surprising to me to find out that all pros don't necessarily buy in.

 

[Whileee]

It's not that they expect them to develop themselves. It's that they think the ones most worth it will have the "character to earn it themselves." Slight difference.

Related, I know of a different team where a person I know was arguing against the typical convention:
Guy I know: We should draft X because he's really good
Scout: He's a bad skater though. Can't skate, won't play
Guy I know to skills guy: You are one of the best skating coaches in the world, could you fix him
Skills guy: probably
* I don't know the rest of the conversation but the team did not end up drafting him and now the kid will likely play in the NHL*

I would be much more confident that a player's skating can improve, than that anyone can improve a player's ability to see the game and make quick and creative decisions with and without the puck.

Also, a player that thinks, anticipates and reacts quickly doesn't need to skate as well as a player that struggles in any of those areas.

 

[garret9]

We lost Aavco over posts like this. I still miss the guy’s thoughtful and smart posts. Sadly….

At least Aavco was smart and thoughtful. Me....

 

[Whileee]

At least Aavco was smart and thoughtful. Me....

LOL...

I resisted using the "ignore" function for quite some time, but have found that it greatly improved my experience on the Board.

 

[larmex99]

LOL...

I resisted using the "ignore" function for quite some time, but have found that it greatly improved my experience on the Board.

Yeah, best feature on HF imo.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Kaliev, Hague, Sokolov? And no I don't expect you to say who it was

Stone?

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Funny how the Chaz Lucius thread has very little updates on Chaz Lucius

 

[ps241]

Yeah, best feature on HF imo.

It saved me during the years of the invasion.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

A lot of teams don't "develop" they rely on the Junior teams or Europe to do that. Really in the last 10 years or so do you see teams sending out guys to keep track of and assist guys with what they work on.

 

[surixon]

A lot of teams don't "develop" they rely on the Junior teams or Europe to do that. Really in the last 10 years or so do you see teams sending out guys to keep track of and assist guys with what they work on.

Yeah which Imo is a pretty big missed opportunity.

I know the Jets developement staff are in constant communication with our prospects and their coaches but I know many orgs aren't as judicious about it.

Granted not much you can control when a player is with their junior/NCAA/European team.

 

[Constable]

Exactly. For example, rookie posters should believe things like Dano and Petan being budding superstars based on superficial “advanced” data spouted by a veteran poster.

This is true! It's not like the Jets have had a problem with their pro staffing actually developing their players. I hope there's nothing in the news today that opposes this.

Maybe we shouldn't be asking why those players haven't turned out, and ask why everyone that isn't essentially gifted top-9 or PP minutes from the jump hasn't become anything more than a bottom-6 or depth guy in the org. Lucius is a guy that I think the Jets (and Minnesota) need to be putting their best foot forward to create a good player and outside of the gimmes what has this org produced?

 

[Yukon Joe]

This is true! It's not like the Jets have had a problem with their pro staffing actually developing their players. I hope there's nothing in the news today that opposes this.

Maybe we shouldn't be asking why those players haven't turned out, and ask why everyone that isn't essentially gifted top-9 or PP minutes from the jump hasn't become anything more than a bottom-6 or depth guy in the org. Lucius is a guy that I think the Jets (and Minnesota) need to be putting their best foot forward to create a good player and outside of the gimmes what has this org produced?

Seriously?

How about Lowry (2nd round 2011), Hellebuyck (5th round 2012), Copp (4th round 2013), Poolman (5th round 2013), Appleton (6th round 2015), and with others that are still developing. Lots of teams would love to have that many players taken after the first round play in their organization.

 

[10Ducky10]

This is true! It's not like the Jets have had a problem with their pro staffing actually developing their players. I hope there's nothing in the news today that opposes this.

Maybe we shouldn't be asking why those players haven't turned out, and ask why everyone that isn't essentially gifted top-9 or PP minutes from the jump hasn't become anything more than a bottom-6 or depth guy in the org. Lucius is a guy that I think the Jets (and Minnesota) need to be putting their best foot forward to create a good player and outside of the gimmes what has this org produced?

Lowry, Copper, Tanev, KC, Scheif (not a gimme), Helle...I'll stop there.