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Around the NHL Part VIII

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I don't understand your beef.

There is an extremely finite amount of possible outcomes to these remaining games. Simulations are run using all possible scenarios and the percentages are derived from that data.
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I don't have any "beef." My beef is with the fact that people act like I'm some idiot because I don't take those odds as "fact" which they aren't.

Again, people are equating this stat with a stat such as he has 10 assists, he has 10 goals, which it is not. It's a probability algorithm, same type of thing that is used on stocks, etc. a frequency distribution, using HIS chosen benchmarks. How often do you see those things run, where they end up being wrong, because they take into account numerous likelihoods? It happens more often then .06% of the time. 99.4 is an assume percentage, based on that persons algorithm (which I also don't fully agree with, having read what goes into it). He automates wins against teams like EDM (who we just lost to) and takes that into account as a given 2 points, which again, they are not.

I would prefer that he dilute the points basis for each team based on the percentage likelihood that we have to win those games. Not the fact that well, we have a 51% chance of beating EDM, therefore, it's a win.

Again, we will likely make the playoffs, but those stats all but present it as fact, which it is not. Assuming teams take care of business with their games in hand, this race is much closer then it seems.
 
AHB said:
I don't have any "beef." My beef is with the fact that people act like I'm some idiot because I don't take those odds as "fact" which they aren't.

Again, people are equating this stat with a stat such as he has 10 assists, he has 10 goals, which it is not. It's a probability algorithm, same type of thing that is used on stocks, etc. a frequency distribution, using HIS chosen benchmarks. How often do you see those things run, where they end up being wrong, because they take into account numerous likelihoods? It happens more often then .06% of the time. 99.4 is an assume percentage, based on that persons algorithm (which I also don't fully agree with, having read what goes into it). He automates wins against teams like EDM (who we just lost to) and takes that into account as a given 2 points, which again, they are not.

I would prefer that he dilute the points basis for each team based on the percentage likelihood that we have to win those games. Not the fact that well, we have a 51% chance of beating EDM, therefore, it's a win.

Again, we will likely make the playoffs, but those stats all but present it as fact, which it is not. Assuming teams take care of business with their games in hand, this race is much closer then it seems.
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Okay that is very clearly not what the site does.

It takes our win %, EDM's win %, then comes up with a number using probability formulas for how often we would beat Edmonton if we played them approximately 20 million times (to get a large sample size).

If you don't want it weighted to teams individual win percentages, you can set the probabilities yourself to be a coin flip. 50% chance that we beat Edmonton. Then the games are played out 20 million times (each one being a coin flip), and we still come out with a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs. Does that clear things up?
 
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Anybody who remembers what happened at the end of the 05-06 Rangers season and the 2007 Mets season knows that those percentages mean nothing.

Do you remember we had a 9 point lead with 5 to play over the Devils?

Hockey Reference makes it a chore to view standings on certain dates. I've done it before now I can't figure out how.
 
someone stole hank said:
I was wondering when we were going to start a new thread:laugh:
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Sorry, SSH. I had gone such a long time without getting any lunch on my shirt and then, today, boom. :facepalm:

If you want, you can always hit the report button on the 1000th post and the new thread will get put up super quickly.
 
Fire Sather said:
Anybody who remembers what happened at the end of the 05-06 Rangers season and the 2007 Mets season knows that those percentages mean nothing.

Do you remember we had a 9 point lead with 5 to play over the Devils?

Hockey Reference makes it a chore to view standings on certain dates. I've done it before now I can't figure out how.
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Well obviously they don't mean anything in terms of certainty, or else they would be 100%. The Mets collapse was historic, yes. At one point they had a 98.6% chance of making the playoffs. Does this percentage mean nothing? No, it means that if you replay that scenario a million times, that collapse probably doesn't happen again. It would take something roughly equal to that Mets collapse for the Rangers to miss the playoffs. Can it happen? Sure. (Anything can happen :sarcasm:) But to say that the percentage means nothing is just plain stupid.

Edit: I think what's happening here is people not realizing that 3% is still a chance. When someone says the Rangers have a 97% chance of making it in, we're not guaranteeing anything. A 3% chance is about equal to flipping a coin and getting heads 5 straight times. Not too likely, but it certainly happens every now and then.
 
Alien Valuating said:
Well obviously they don't mean anything in terms of certainty, or else they would be 100%. The Mets collapse was historic, yes. At one point they had a 98.6% chance of making the playoffs. Does this percentage mean nothing? No, it means that if you replay that scenario a million times, that collapse probably doesn't happen again. It would take something roughly equal to that Mets collapse for the Rangers to miss the playoffs. Can it happen? Sure. (Anything can happen :sarcasm:) But to say that the percentage means nothing is just plain stupid.

Edit: I think what's happening here is people not realizing that 3% is still a chance. When someone says the Rangers have a 97% chance of making it in, we're not guaranteeing anything. A 3% chance is about equal to flipping a coin and getting heads 5 straight times. Not too likely, but it certainly happens every now and then.
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Not a million times. 98,6% means that it (most likely) happens 14 out of 1000 times. Where are we now? 99%? Nobody says we can't drop out, the likelihood is just it happening once in a hundred times.
 
April 7, 2011
Atlanta Thrashers 3
New York Rangers 0

April 23, 2013
New York Rangers 2
Florida Panthers 3

I'm not doing my happy dance until the little "x" appears next to "New York Rangers" in the standings.
 
It's fascinating to watch how the Leafs are completely falling apart. You've gotta think they're in too deep of a hole mentally to dig themselves out, right?
 
Valverde said:
It's fascinating to watch how the Leafs are completely falling apart. You've gotta think they're in too deep of a hole mentally to dig themselves out, right?
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They don't strike me as a team that could ascend out of the mess they've made. :laugh:

It's like they literally never practice defense.
 
Hawks announcers saying there should be two trophies for defence men...one for best offensive D man and one for best two way D man
 
Dion Phaneuf takes the face off on a 3-on-5, Flyers score immediately to make it 1-0. That was the funniest thing I've ever seen.

Leafs-fan.bmp
 
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Alien Valuating said:
Okay that is very clearly not what the site does.

It takes our win %, EDM's win %, then comes up with a number using probability formulas for how often we would beat Edmonton if we played them approximately 20 million times (to get a large sample size).

If you don't want it weighted to teams individual win percentages, you can set the probabilities yourself to be a coin flip. 50% chance that we beat Edmonton. Then the games are played out 20 million times (each one being a coin flip), and we still come out with a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs. Does that clear things up?
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The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.
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It is running the scenarios based on the assumptions that the Rangers will beat the lesser teams. Don't see what you're misinterpreting here.

As we saw tonight, whatever advantage they are giving the Rangers over EDM or CGY (say, 90/100) is not realistic.
 
FromTheSide said:
PHI losing would help secure a playoff spot? Keeping teams under us tends to do that ya know.
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Yes, but if Philly overtakes us, chances are (here we go again with percentages) we can still make the playoffs. If one of the teams currently outside the playoffs does, chances are we will not. This is what I meant.
 
Close your eyes and hope we get help this weekend or everything can quickly get back to where it was.

Every single loss can be the start of a slide. We need help today and need to win tomorrow.
 
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