Aren't the Rangers like 12-5 and a point or two behind us with games in hand? Why the panic in Rangerland?
This was written in The Athletic on Thursday. Since then, they've gone on to lose to Calgary and get smoked by Edmonton....
12. Top-six worries in New York
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Rangers’ underlying numbers look more formidable than usual, but that’s being entirely driven by the bottom six — all of whom rank ahead of the team’s top six in both xG and goals this season. That’s good news for the team’s depth, but the stars not shining at five-on-five is not ideal.
Across the board, all five returning members of the top six have seen considerable drops at five-on-five compared to last season.
Rangers’ big five 2023-24
xG with: 51.2 percent
Goals with: 52.8 percent
xG without: 44.9 percent
Goals without: 44.3 percent
Rangers’ big five 2024-25
xG with: 49.3 percent
Goals with: 45.4 percent
xG without: 60.5 percent
Goals without: 83.1 percent
Mika Zibanejad’s line has been an especially big problem here with Zibanejad’s xG percentage dropping to 44 percent on the season, one of the worst marks on the team. The Rangers have paid the price for it on the scoreboard, too, being outscored by a 13-8 margin.
That effect has at least been recognized by the coaching staff to the point that it may actually be unfair to call Zibanejad’s line the team’s second line. His minutes at five-on-five have been cut to 11.7 per game this year, eighth among forwards on the team and down from 13.1 per game last year.
13. Rangers’ soft schedule
What makes all that especially worrying? The Rangers have had the second easiest schedule so far with an average opponent Net Rating of minus-11.
Of New York’s 17 games, only six have come against likely playoff teams, where the Rangers have generally struggled. They’re taking care of business against the league’s weakerthans, but they’ll need to step it up against the better teams going forward. The five-on-five divide is noteworthy.
Rangers vs. above-average teams (3-3-0)
xG: 40.1 percent
Goals: 40.7 percent
Rangers vs. below-average teams (9-1-1)
xG: 61.0 percent
Goals: 69.3 percent