Duchene is one of the most overrated players on HFBoards. Almost every reasonable trade proposal on the forums is turned down these days because of the narrative that is following him around.
I'm torn on him.
At times he looks like the 30 goal, 70-75 point player he's shown glimpses of. At other times, I see a 20 goal, 55 point type player. Frankly, I've seen a lot more of the latter in recent years and throughout his young career at this point.
But even if I split the difference and say he's a 25 goal, 60-65 point player on a good team, I'm just not sure how much he raises the play of those around him.
So the question I have to ask, beyond promises of his potential and glimpses of what he's shown in the past, is how much am I willing to pay?
Over the last three seasons, player A has scored .294 goals per game and had a point per game average of .660.
Player B has scored .253 goals per game and had a point per game average of .618.
Player C has scored .249 goals per game and had a point per game average of .738
If all three players play an 82 game season, that means Player A averages 24 goals and 54 points, while Player B averages 21 goals and 51 points and Player C averages 20 goals and 61 points.
Player A is Matt Duchene, at the age of 26, with a bounty of a cost.
Player B is Zibanejad, at the age of 24, acquired for Brassard a year ago.
Player C is Stepan, at the age of 27, recently traded for a 21 year-old former first round pick, and the 7th pick in the draft.
All three guys have question marks.
Zibanejad was continuing his trend up prior to his injury, but has never hit the levels Duchene has. He's the youngest of the three.
Duchene has yo-yo'd a little, but has the history of at least hitting closer to full potential. He is generally seen as having the highest upside of the three.
Stepan has proven a little snake bit with injuries, but has played the most consistent all-around game of the three. He's also the oldest of the three.
The general consensus is that Duchene is the superior player of the three. But based on numbers and age, how much more is he realistically worth?