Damn, I almost regret the 2 wins vs Columbus. It's still possible but no margin for error
Also, Sens are the 3rd best team in the NHL since March 1st! 0.727 P% (Blues 1st and Golden Knights 2nd), +13 differential, 3.27 G/GP which is much better than it has been earlier in the season.
5v5, Sens were 31st in the first 58 games of the season, 1.92 GF/60 but since March 1st, Sens have been 12th with 2.59 GF/60, which is much better.
Bring on the Leafs!
It will be interesting to see what happens over the long term with Mtl, that top line has been getting a lot of praise, but is it sustainable?
GF% is running at 61% for Slaf-Suzuki-Caufield, but xGF% is 48.1%. so
To put that into perspective, that xGF% is 66th out of the top 78 lines in TOI (200+ mins), but 24th in GF%. The Detla between expected and actual is 13.2 above expected, so maybe they are talented guys, perhaps but Hyman-Draisaitl-Mcdavid are +3.9, Knies-Matthews-Marner are +1.6, Lehkonen-Mackinnon-Rantanen were +1.8. That got me interested so I checked the correlation on individuals year over year for beating their xGF and there is very little correlation from one year to the next, and what little there is would likely be attributable to goaltending quality.
Long story short, I think that line is likely to regress, which probably shouldn't surprise anyone. They are still pretty talented offensive players, so they'll continue to be effective, but they simply aren't likely to be among the best lines in hockey over the long term. .
Weren't they scoring largely above expected last season too? I think it's normal that players with deadly shots are going to do that. Think about Norris, 18.1 s% career wise, that's crazy. He's not the only one, Brayden Point shoots at 18.7% career wise, Draisaitl at 18.6%. These guys typically score more goals than expected, as their shots are so sneaky good. On the Sens, Norris was the one converting the most but this season, Gaudette and Stutzle (if that guy could start shooting) also beat the odds, and inversely, Tkachuk, Greig and Pinto should all have more goals (but pretty normal in Tkachuk's case)
As I said the other day, Suzuki and Caufield look like safe bets to be 16%+ guys and it remains to be seen for Slafkovsky who is at 13%+ since his 19 y/o season. There's also Laine who has been converting a lot for them (and has a career 14.9%) but the good thing is they might not keep him after his contract is over since he's not very good 5v5 and so enigmatic. The problem though is Demidov who might become their biggest threat. Suzuki, Caufield and Laine are the only 3 MTL forwards who significantly scored more than expected, all the others scored as expected or even a bit under.
Suzuki/Caufield/Slaf scored 83 goals this season so far and 81 goals last year so even if they outplayed the expectations more this year, they still scored a similar total. In comparison, our 3 best forwards scored 75 goals this year and 83 goals last year. So for things to change, would need their 3 guys to start missing some games, they've been so lucky as only Slaf missed 3 games this season, that's it for 2 whole seasons... Then maybe their coaching staff ask them to play even more defensively and it affects their goals total. Also, maybe they faced more backups early in the season as they were expected to be out of the playoffs so if they make it, teams will take them more seriously next season.
But, it's not even them, the factors that makes me anxious are Demidov, Hutson and Fowler. Habs are likely to move on from Dach and Newhook as 2nd line C options. Laine won;t probably stay beyond next season so their 2nd line is still a big question mark. Also, some of their vets contracts expire (Armia and Dvorak) so they probably don't re-sign them and it disrupts their bottom-6 that has been providing unreal depht this season.
I'm also curious to see what will happen with the Leafs and both Tavares and Marner... I could see the Sens finishing ahead next season if Staios can find a way to add a decent converter and if the Leafs lose them...
Maybe my standards are high but after going through a full rebuild like that for so long, I am expecting to be a Top-2 team in the Atlantic and easily Top-5 in the East, making the playoffs every year and winning rounds.
