Around the NHL — Episode XLXVII

[Tuna99]

How’s everyone doing, we over the pain and humiliation of the WJC lose yet? Anyone need a few more days?

It’s funny because if you go back to the Roberto Luongo WJC 25 years ago, you will hear the Bobfather in the Boxing Day pregame talk about how Canada doesn’t always ice the best and most talented teams, but we always have the best goalies and that’s why we win.
Not saying the Team Canada goalie let them down, but 25 years ago Canada was aware we weren’t always the best every year and goaltending often masked teams that weren’t at the talent level of their rivals, here we are 25 years later Pearl clutching because we lost, nothing learned and the egos as fragile as ever

 

[GCK]

How’s everyone doing, we over the pain and humiliation of the WJC lose yet? Anyone need a few more days?

It’s funny because if you go back to the Roberto Luongo WJC 25 years ago, you will hear the Bobfather in the Boxing Day pregame talk about how Canada doesn’t always ice the best and most talented teams, but we always have the best goalies and that’s why we win.
Not saying the Team Canada goalie let them down, but 25 years ago Canada was aware we weren’t always the best every year and goaltending often masked teams that weren’t at the talent level of their rivals, here we are 25 years later Pearl clutching because we lost, nothing learned and the egos as fragile as ever

Take this nonsense to the WJC thread.

 

[bicboi64]

Him being the centerpiece of the Spezza return will never not piss me off.

At the time I was hoping for Nichushkin or Faksa would be the main piece coming back smh

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Take this nonsense to the WJC thread.

Main board worthy ... needs a little more Yakemchuk content though

 

[Senscore]

Hab fans having problems deciding on whether Hutson is better than Hughes or Makar but I think they're leaning towards "both".

 

[Xspyrit]

At the time I was hoping for Nichushkin or Faksa would be the main piece coming back smh

yeah but that trade wasn't nearly as disastrous as it was made to be. Of course, you give up the best player you lose but it was mostly because of Spezza's name. Note that he was traded at 31 y/o, which was close to his decline, probably due to his back problems. He only had 2 good seasons after leaving Ottawa, after that he was massively overpaid. Emotionally, people think of what the player who left was (like I have been doing with Joseph or Brown for example) but in reality, it's the future guy who left and Spezza as much as we liked him, didn't have much left in the tank, at least as a top player.

Jason Spezza in Dallas (7.0 AAV in 2014-15 then 4 years at 7.5 AAV) : 379 GP 81 G 147 A 228 Pts, 0.60 PPG

Note that 0.60 PPG is roughly 49 pts per 82 games, quite expensive for a 7+ AAV player. That's similar to Josh Norris PPG since last season and 8.0 AAV today is less than 7.5 AAV from 10 years ago... and Norris is much better defensively. Also, 40% of Spezza's production in Dallas was on the PP, which is quite high

The Sens missed out on the 2nd round pick from the return (Gabriel Gagne), but this is what else they got :

Alex Chiasson 153 GP 19 G 21 A 40 Pts, 0.26 PPG
Nick Paul 227 GP 29 G 37 A 66 Pts, 0.29 PPG
Mathieu Joseph 139 GP 18 G 47 A 65 Pts, 0.47 PPG
Blake Montgomery : currently looks like our 2nd best prospect

Total : 519 GP 66 G 105 A 171 Pts, 0.33 PPG

These 3 guys only had 9% of their production on the PP and were dirt cheap for the most part outside of Joseph 2 seasons at 2.95 AAV

Basically replaced overpaid 2nd line production by good cheap defensive support 3rd liners. Could have kept Nick Paul all the way too but if Montgomery becomes a player, I'd say this "trade tree" still has potential to end up positive.

I've seen some comments regarding how Murray's trading was bad but when you look at trade trees, it's not as nearly as disastrous as Dorion's trade trees, actually not bad at all. Look at Heatley's trade tree for example, we dodged a massive bullet as he became a massive anchor contract while Michalek was a cheaper and much better 2-way player.

 

[PlayOn]

Hab fans having problems deciding on whether Hutson is better than Hughes or Makar but I think they're leaning towards "both".

Lol long way to go in his own zone but he’s legit. He drives their offense like only the elite offensive dmen in the league can.

Watching the Habs vs Canucks made me miss Karlsson.

 

[GCK]

Lol long way to go in his own zone but he’s legit. He drives their offense like only the elite offensive dmen in the league can.

Watching the Habs vs Canucks made me miss Karlsson.

His brother is sooooo good.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

His brother is sooooo good.

as well lol

 

[PlayOn]

His brother is sooooo good.

He is.

Nobody is developing defencemen like the US. The talent they are churning out on the backend is nuts.

 

[Xspyrit]

He is.

Nobody is developing defencemen like the US. The talent they are churning out on the backend is nuts.

Werenski, Quinn Hughes, Fox, Slavin, Lane Hutson, Faber, McAvoy, Carlson, Hanifin, Sanderson, Luke Hughes, Pionk, Harley, Alex Vlasic, Lacombe, Lohrei, Kesselring, Skjei, Seth Jones, Cole Hutson, Buium...

Team 1 :

Werenski - Fox
Hughes - McAvoy
Slavin - Carlson

Team 2 :

Hutson - Faber
Hanifin - Harley
Sanderson - Hughes


Absolutely ridiculous

 

[bicboi64]

yeah but that trade wasn't nearly as disastrous as it was made to be. Of course, you give up the best player you lose but it was mostly because of Spezza's name. Note that he was traded at 31 y/o, which was close to his decline, probably due to his back problems. He only had 2 good seasons after leaving Ottawa, after that he was massively overpaid. Emotionally, people think of what the player who left was (like I have been doing with Joseph or Brown for example) but in reality, it's the future guy who left and Spezza as much as we liked him, didn't have much left in the tank, at least as a top player.

I've seen some comments regarding how Murray's trading was bad but when you look at trade trees, it's not as nearly as disastrous as Dorion's trade trees, actually not bad at all. Look at Heatley's trade tree for example, we dodged a massive bullet as he became a massive anchor contract while Michalek was a cheaper and much better 2-way player.

I'd 100% agree that the trade tree from the Spezza trade isn't as bad as most of Dorion's work, but at the time, the trade felt like a disaster.

Not getting back a first round pick or blue chip prospect was awful. Nick Paul was a product of our development and his work ethic, but at the time he was a meh 4th round selection and Guptil was a meh 3rd rounder. The 2nd round pick was the most valuable part of the trade and that's just pathetic for even a declining 1C who was still top 30 in points league wide, top 15 in centres production, and a beast on the dot in a down year.

Going forward for any trade Staios does, the bar has to be better than Murray imo

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I'd 100% agree that the trade tree from the Spezza trade isn't as bad as most of Dorion's work, but at the time, the trade felt like a disaster.

Not getting back a first round pick or blue chip prospect was awful. Nick Paul was a product of our development and his work ethic, but at the time he was a meh 4th round selection and Guptil was a meh 3rd rounder. The 2nd round pick was the most valuable part of the trade and that's just pathetic for even a declining 1C who was still top 30 in points league wide, top 15 in centres production, and a beast on the dot in a down year.

Going forward for any trade Staios does, the bar has to be better than Murray imo

He did have trade protection that limited it too though. There was a better deal worked out with Nashville was there not?

 

[DrEasy]

I'd 100% agree that the trade tree from the Spezza trade isn't as bad as most of Dorion's work, but at the time, the trade felt like a disaster.

Not getting back a first round pick or blue chip prospect was awful. Nick Paul was a product of our development and his work ethic, but at the time he was a meh 4th round selection and Guptil was a meh 3rd rounder. The 2nd round pick was the most valuable part of the trade and that's just pathetic for even a declining 1C who was still top 30 in points league wide, top 15 in centres production, and a beast on the dot in a down year.

Going forward for any trade Staios does, the bar has to be better than Murray imo

Not to mention that Nick Paul was even waived at some point, so one might consider that branch of the trade tree dead at that point. We were lucky he cleared waivers and ended up being useful eventually.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[bicboi64]

He did have trade protection that limited it too though. There was a better deal worked out with Nashville was there not?

Spezza says no to Nashville

While Friday was a severe disappointment for the Senators – unable to find a trading partner for Spezza and unable to secure a first round draft pick – Nashville Pr…

ottawacitizen.com

Damn I just read that Spezza blocked a trade to Nashville. I wonder what the return would've been at the end of the 2013-14 season. Probably a piece like Jarnkrok or Cissons coming back as a roster player with a 2nd and some mid round prospects like with Chiasson, Paul, Guptil, etc.,

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Spezza says no to Nashville

While Friday was a severe disappointment for the Senators – unable to find a trading partner for Spezza and unable to secure a first round draft pick – Nashville Pr…

ottawacitizen.com

Damn I just read that Spezza blocked a trade to Nashville. I wonder what the return would've been at the end of the 2013-14 season. Probably a piece like Jarnkrok or Cissons coming back as a roster player with a 2nd and some mid round prospects like with Chiasson, Paul, Guptil, etc.,

Ya I was sure that was the case. Seemed like his value wasn't super high, but also a limited amount of suitors. I think I remember Hornqvist being in the deal, but hard to say for sure at this point.

 

[Micklebot]

Spezza says no to Nashville

While Friday was a severe disappointment for the Senators – unable to find a trading partner for Spezza and unable to secure a first round draft pick – Nashville Pr…

ottawacitizen.com

Damn I just read that Spezza blocked a trade to Nashville. I wonder what the return would've been at the end of the 2013-14 season. Probably a piece like Jarnkrok or Cissons coming back as a roster player with a 2nd and some mid round prospects like with Chiasson, Paul, Guptil, etc.,

If memory serves, the rumour was we'd have gotten something similar to what the pens got from Neal as he was their backup plan, so Hornqvist, Spaling and probably a pick to bridge the difference in value between Spezza and Neal.

 

[Xspyrit]

I'd 100% agree that the trade tree from the Spezza trade isn't as bad as most of Dorion's work, but at the time, the trade felt like a disaster.

That's because you never want to trade a beloved player and particularly not for quantity but sometimes there's no choice. Spezza got tired of being scapegoated and asked for a trade. IIRC we almost got a sweet return from the Preds but Spezza didn't want to go there.

It was like the Karlsson trade, many felt it was an automatic loss. But despite some good seasons/moments after, Karlsson was never going to be as good somewhere else and he comes with a heavy price tag, which made him a cap dump. Considering we got Stutzle, Norris, Ostapchuk, Sogaard and Merilainen in return, it is clearly a Win for Ottawa in the end despite it feeling like a disaster at the time.

Not getting back a first round pick or blue chip prospect was awful. Nick Paul was a product of our development and his work ethic, but at the time he was a meh 4th round selection and Guptil was a meh 3rd rounder. The 2nd round pick was the most valuable part of the trade and that's just pathetic for even a declining 1C who was still top 30 in points league wide, top 15 in centres production, and a beast on the dot in a down year.

Going forward for any trade Staios does, the bar has to be better than Murray imo

Like already touched above, only the Preds offered a first round pick IIRC. We obviously overrated Spezza. GMs saw him more like a better Mike Ribeiro who was a risk to become overpaid in the near future due to chronic back issues while we saw him as much better than he really was. I think what happened after the trade quickly showed why nobody was offering an incredible return for him. I remember liking Nick Paul as a prospect but Chiasson was a Top prospect, IIRC he had a 8.0 B rating on HF's future.

And yes Staios will need to be very good in trades. The Ullmark trade seems like a homerun because giving up Kastelic and a late 1st for a top goalie (which we extended 4 years) is a good move, even more since we dumped 75% of Korpisalo contract on them.

The Chychrun trade is a disaster in terms of value but he made the best out of a really bad situation in getting a solid stop gap veteran for 2 years. It shocks me that we couldn't get a better pick than a 3rd though. I don't get NHL teams there, it was such an easy call to expect a solid bounce back season from Chychrun (one of my easiest calls in a while), not sure why he had such terrible value. I guess he didn't have the best reputation in terms of attitude... which I suspect is similar for Joseph which is why Staios also had to lose that trade.

He didn't do much outside of these but the Jarventie trade was puzzling to me, why spend a 4th round pick to swap Roby for a lesser prospect?

 

[DackellDuck]

The Chychrun trade is a disaster in terms of value but he made the best out of a really bad situation in getting a solid stop gap veteran for 2 years. It shocks me that we couldn't get a better pick than a 3rd though. I don't get NHL teams there, it was such an easy call to expect a solid bounce back season from Chychrun (one of my easiest calls in a while), not sure why he had such terrible value.

I don't think it was terrible value, considering the premium that right-shot defensemen have in the league right now.

I'd say that Jensen's "value" was about the same as John Marino's (also a RD) last summer, who was traded to Utah for two 2nd RD picks.

So if you break the value down as Chychrun for 2nd + 2nd + 3rd... I don't think that's bad.

We paid a 1st + 2nd + 3rd to get him in the first place, but he played poorly here and burned 1.5 years of his affordable contract.

 

[Xspyrit]

I don't think it was terrible value, considering the premium that right-shot defensemen have in the league right now.

I'd say that Jensen's "value" was about the same as John Marino's (also a RD) last summer, who was traded to Utah for two 2nd RD picks.

So if you break the value down as Chychrun for 2nd + 2nd + 3rd... I don't think that's bad.

We paid a 1st + 2nd + 3rd to get him in the first place, but he played poorly here and burned 1.5 years of his affordable contract.

Yeah but the difference is that Marino was 27 y/o while Jensen is 34 y/o. He was also playing a bigger role in NJ than Jensen in Washington.

And little nitpick but we actually paid 1st + 2nd + 2nd, to get Chychrun and the 1st was a 12th OA pick, which is significantly more valuable than the 1st used in Ullmark's trade, for example.

But yeah, we were always going to lose that trade. Considering the need for a RHD, getting Jensen was better than getting a couple 2nds.

 

[DackellDuck]

Yeah but the difference was that Marino was 27 y/o while Jensen is 34 y/o. he was also playing a bigger role in NJ than Jensen in Washington.

And nitcpick, we actually paid 1st + 2nd + 2nd, and the 1st was a 12th OA pick, which is significantly more valuable than the 1st used in Ullmark's trade, for example.

But yeah, we were always going to lose that trade.

It wasn't the 12th OA pick at the time of the trade, we were a couple of points out of a playoff spot in early March and the expectation/hope was that the acquisition would propel us into the wildcard and we'd be giving up the 16-19th pick, but we ended up going 9-9-4 the rest of the way and missed.

And while Marino had the extra year and played slightly more, he also had a limited NTC so his pool of suitors was more limited than Jensen's.

Did we lose the trade on value? Maybe slightly, but not by much. Chychrun was very bad here last season. He's obviously gotten his shit together in a contract year, though.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Spezza says no to Nashville

While Friday was a severe disappointment for the Senators – unable to find a trading partner for Spezza and unable to secure a first round draft pick – Nashville Pr…

ottawacitizen.com

Damn I just read that Spezza blocked a trade to Nashville. I wonder what the return would've been at the end of the 2013-14 season. Probably a piece like Jarnkrok or Cissons coming back as a roster player with a 2nd and some mid round prospects like with Chiasson, Paul, Guptil, etc.,

The speculation at the time was that it involved the 11th overall pick. But I don't recall if that was from a major source, or just message board speculation.

The Dallas return was very disappointing, but I remember Bryan Murray being quite high on Nick Paul - or at least, he talked him up a lot in interviews, maybe to help manage the reaction to the trade.

If I recall, Spezza's back issues were a concern. He was also on the final year of his contract and the trade didn't come with an extension right out of the gate. It was bad timing because a few years earlier when they started their rebuild, he probably would have gotten the Senators a massive return. He had that awesome Hart candidate season around that time, but then he missed almost the entirety of the lockout shortened season due to back issues.

 

[OD99]

His brother is sooooo good.

And there is still a younger brother as well? I don't think he is the same level prospect as they were/are, but who knows.

Imagine a US team with brothers on the 1st and 2nd pair and then a pair playing wing together up front. It's crazy.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Yeah but the difference is that Marino was 27 y/o while Jensen is 34 y/o. He was also playing a bigger role in NJ than Jensen in Washington.

And little nitpick but we actually paid 1st + 2nd + 2nd, to get Chychrun and the 1st was a 12th OA pick, which is significantly more valuable than the 1st used in Ullmark's trade, for example.

But yeah, we were always going to lose that trade. Considering the need for a RHD, getting Jensen was better than getting a couple 2nds.

To know what we paid for Jensen, we would have to know what kind of offers were on the table for Chychrun at the draft.

I think that we probably left value on the table and overpaid because we badly needed a stabilizing RHD, and our other options were off the table. I think that we probably should have gotten more than a 3rd with Jensen, but it's possible that the market for Chychrun was bad.