Around the NHL — Episode XLXVII

[Senscore]

Knowing when to cut bait on players, even beloved ones, is a real talent and takes guts to do.


Tampa did the right thing.

 

[NyQuil]

There's no way Stamkos can get two goals on that team in a single game.

 

[KingAlfie11]

Everyone was enthusiastic about Nashville, and Trotz was hailed as a brilliant GM. It seems that spending heavily on UFAs may not be all it's made out to be.

 

[Knave]

Everyone was enthusiastic about Nashville, and Trotz was hailed as a brilliant GM. It seems that spending heavily on UFAs may not be all it's made out to be.

Trotz is a GM?

 

[Big Muddy]

Dallas is good. They’ll be one of the best teams again this year. They are consistent and have been good for awhile.

 

[Dionysus]

Dallas is good. They’ll be one of the best teams again this year. They are consistent and have been good for awhile.

Still remember the game last season the Sens beat the Stars. Best game I have seen this current core play. Hopefully they can put together that complete game more often this season.

 

[Xspyrit]

Yes, I absolutely would. SS did too so it's not like that's some crazy take either. I don't really care about the age factor for spare part players in general since none would be significant parts of the future. I think both are smarter players and bring more of the safe 200 foot play this team needs.

Metrics have revealed the opposite and not just on a short term scale... Over the last 3 seasons, Joseph has a 2.51 xGA/60 (92th best out of 438 forwards who played at least 1000 ES minutes) mostly on a rebuilding team heavily struggling defensively.

Amadio had a very good 2.33 xGA/60 but played on a top contender with excellent 2-way metrics. He mostly played with William Karlsson who is a Top 2-way center (regularly gets Selke votes) and also other great 2-way forwards like Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone (another perennial Selke candidate), etc. Amadio defensive numbers weren't nearly as good before joining Vegas, actually he was not even a regular NHL player.

Perron had 2.95 xGA/60 which is not very good and that's despite playing the 2021-22 season with Ryan O'Reilly. He also played with Larkin, Copp, Raymond, Compher in Detroit but still had bad ES metrics.

I also disagree that 3rd line players are "spare parts", they spend almost as much ES TOI as your top-6 forwards, the difference being the PP TOI. For example, Amadio has the same ES TOI/GP as Josh Norris so far this season, and Perron has only 1:37 per game less than Norris. In today's NHL, your whole Top-9 is extremely important. Yes the PP is important but in the end, good teams are good at ES and we need to be good at ES. We haven't been in years.

I think Joseph is one of those really fast players that gets your attention, but still a relatively spare part that struggles to put the puck in the net himself. He had some hot streaks in Ottawa and does produce some offence but it's pretty comparable overall and his goal scoring is hovering pretty low at 11 goals per 82 the last 3 seasons for 3 mil, compared to Amadio at 18+. I've said many times this summer that I prefer the idea of a guy that potentially scores more himself being added to the 3rd line, over a guy with a ton of speed but lacks finish. I also agree with SS that this team sorely needed some veteran influence and significant change in general, so happy with that element on both guys and how the roster came together. Could end up wrong but that's my 2 cents.

ok but the problem is like I said, he outscored them both at ES last season and when you're looking at a 3rd liner, you look at ES scoring since that player doesn't play on the PP.

Joseph : 33 ES pts in 72 games
Amadio : 22 ES pts in 73 games
Perron : 30 ES pts in 76 games

... but yet he is the defensive specialist and PK expert (constantly among the best PK metrics among forwards). Both Perron and Amadio don't PK as they are far from being top defensive options for a NHL coach.

Perron has had a great career but the guy is going on 37 y/o now. Joseph has had a much better career than Amadio so far. Sure, Joseph had a terrible season in 2022-23 offensively as he didn't score at ES but overall has the same GPG (0.15) as Amadio. If you're only looking at last season, Perron and Amadio both had 0.62 goals/60 and Joseph just below with 0.60

Don't be surprised if Joseph outscores them both this season, both in goals and points.

If Joseph weren't fast, nobody would give a shit and the only part of it all that I didn't really like was the requirement of a pick to move Joseph.

Don't like that argument at all. If "player X" wouldn't have his best attribute, he wouldn't be as good. Yeah, even McDavid and Karlsson wouldn't be as good if they weren't as fast. If Mark Stone didn't have as good of a hockey IQ, he wouldn't be in the NHL.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Metrics have revealed the opposite and not just on a short term scale... Over the last 3 seasons, Joseph has a 2.51 xGA/60 (92th best out of 438 forwards who played at least 1000 ES minutes) mostly on a rebuilding team heavily struggling defensively.

Amadio had a very good 2.33 xGA/60 but played on a top contender with excellent 2-way metrics. He mostly played with William Karlsson who is a Top 2-way center (regularly gets Selke votes) and also other great 2-way forwards like Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone (another perennial Selke candidate), etc. Amadio defensive numbers weren't nearly as good before joining Vegas, actually he was not even a regular NHL player.

Perron had 2.95 xGA/60 which is not very good and that's despite playing the 2021-22 season with Ryan O'Reilly. He also played with Larkin, Copp, Raymond, Compher in Detroit but still had bad ES metrics.

I also disagree that 3rd line players are "spare parts", they spend almost as much ES TOI as your top-6 forwards, the difference being the PP TOI. For example, Amadio has the same ES TOI/GP as Josh Norris so far this season, and Perron has only 1:37 per game less than Norris. In today's NHL, your whole Top-9 is extremely important. Yes the PP is important but in the end, good teams are good at ES and we need to be good at ES. We haven't been in years.

I don't have much interest in going this in depth with advanced stats with this argument. If the metrics make it so obvious why did an NHL GM that also pulled off the best trade of the summer do the opposite. That's not meant to be an appeal to authority, but it certainly points to those metrics not telling the whole story to people in the industry while this drum gets hammered like it was nonsensical. Why was he so hard to move despite a relatively low salary and reportedly available for a calendar year dating back to Dorion. I'm comfortable with my opinion on the matter and if you feel you can demonstrate otherwise 100% through numbers on paper and feel like you've won the debate, then you may have it, honestly. SS moved him, had to pay to do so, and to bring in 2 other players that I like more and bring the type of veteran influence the team needed more than anything besides goaltending. That doesn't mean I wanted Joseph gone at all costs or disliked him, but status quo would not have been at all acceptable to me for the roster, and he's to me that type of player with one strong attribute that leaves you wanting. Call the other guys more well rounded imo. His effort and performance as it appeared to me was all over the map and that's not what this team needs. Disappearing under Martin, the first competent coach was a concern and may have influenced the feedback given to management, which would be red flag to me if that were Martin's feedback given my high amount of respect for him. Gregor has replaced him as the special skill speedy winger already and I don't think we've really lost anything as far as the overall roster is concerned.

The spare parts comment is more about the age thing you brought up and that they're just not core long term pieces, so whether they're 25 or 35, I really only care about what they bring for the likely only couple years they're part of the team until they're recycled, and I don't really want long term contracts given out to those guys in general. You're right they haven't been good in years, so imo change is good, but like Chychrun for Jensen, sometimes what looks foolish on paper, isn't in reality when you see them lacing them up and joining the group. Jensen has obviously been one of our best so far, and his age shouldn't matter with Chychrun needing a massive deal we'd surely regret and Yak not being far behind.

ok but the problem is like I said, he outscored them both at ES last season and when you're looking at a 3rd liner, you look at ES scoring since that player doesn't play on the PP.

Joseph : 33 ES pts in 72 games
Amadio : 22 ES pts in 73 games
Perron : 30 ES pts in 76 games

... but yet he is the defensive specialist and PK expert (constantly among the best PK metrics among forwards). Both Perron and Amadio don't PK as they are far from being top defensive options for a NHL coach.

Perron has had a great career but the guy is going on 37 y/o now. Joseph has had a much better career than Amadio so far. Sure, Joseph had a terrible season in 2022-23 offensively as he didn't score at ES but overall has the same GPG (0.15) as Amadio. If you're only looking at last season, Perron and Amadio both had 0.62 goals/60 and Joseph just below with 0.60

Don't be surprised if Joseph outscores them both this season, both in goals and points.

The difference between Joseph and Perron at ES there is not much for relevancy imo, especially if we're being honest about what management wanted to do to this team this offseason by bringing in veterans with good work ethic and turning over ~30% of the roster. PP or not, Perron was still trusted to be there and put up those points, so they aren't entirely tossed out to sea imo. I whole heartedly supported those goals management had. Amadio has outscored him significantly the last 3 seasons per 82 games, ES or PP, don't really care, I just think Amadio has proven he can approach 20 goals per season with his 18+ per 82 games the last 3 seasons while Joseph is barely above 10. The last 3 seasons are far more important than anything else in their careers as far as assessing what they are now and what this team needs, imo. I think Amadio's higher Goals/82 pace matters and makes him a potentially more effective 3rd liner over a guy that skates like the wind but struggles to put the puck in the net when he does put himself in that position because of that one elite skill. I already like what I'm seeing out there from Amadio in a big way. Perron is a guy I'm not going to bat for as much as far as on ice ability, but I can certainly appreciate that the team DESPERATELY needed veteran leadership, but from a guy that can still put up some points and not be a liability out there. Also worth noting that last year was Perron's worst in a very long time, so while it may likely be age related specifically and is easy to point to, it also bucks his career averages, even the year prior, and it's possible that isn't his ceiling this year, just like Joseph may be more of a 25 point guy like he averaged in TB before his minutes and role spiked in Ottawa. If Perron provides 40-50 points and brings leadership, PP production or not, I'm more than happy with that signing in a bubble. This was a special case of a team needing to introduce some veterans to the lineup and a price was paid to do so that I'm happy with.

They need Brady, Stutzle, Batherson, Pinto, Norris & Greig as their top 6 offensive guys at this point. These are guys meant to support them, so sometimes what appears as a drop off really isn't when they're all slotted correctly and the entire group is considered. The way St Louis has used Joseph so far, it seems like his minutes are being reduced by about 4 minutes compared to Ottawa, and back to his TB averages, so we'll see what happens. I wish him the best and hope he succeeds, but I do prefer Amadio and Perron for this team right now.

Don't like that argument at all. If "player X" wouldn't have his best attribute, he wouldn't be as good. Yeah, even McDavid and Karlsson wouldn't be as good if they weren't as fast. If Mark Stone didn't have as good of a hockey IQ, he wouldn't be in the NHL.

That's fine. I'm not trying to convince you otherwise tbh, was just giving my 2 cents and stand by it, but to be fair, he has nothing in common with the types of names you have here so not sure where to take that. Those are superstar needle movers, not 3rd liners with a special skill that sometimes gets them put in spots they otherwise wouldn't be. I see him more like a Carl Hagelin and he bounced around a lot too because that's the nature of those players and he had much better offensive numbers at times than Joseph does. It's tough with a guy that has an elite skill like speed, but lacks so much else compared to guys high up the lineup. He's a specialist basically that will sometimes be in positions he shouldn't, because of the thing he brings.

All that said, I'm not arguing Joseph is a bad player, but It's clear something was amiss between his advanced numbers, how he looked at times, and how management felt about him. Many feel that doesn't matter without the facts and want to hammer this as dumb management, but personally I can't ignore it, especially with the incident in Pittsburgh and this team so drastically needing some serious turnover this summer while lacking cap space and the core all locked in. If it were a player I felt was more important, I might be kicking and screaming and arguing the same, but if that's the one guy they identified out of the whole group as the one they would pay an asset to move, I have a hard time not giving them the benefit of the doubt on it and running with the assumption that they saw something under the hood they didn't like. Small beans roster decision imo I guess.

 

[Knave]

Sportsnet not understanding Toronto crosschecking a Rangers player into their own goalie is not goalie interference by the Rangers. He tried to walk it back a little I guess.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Slow start for Mathieu. 1 point in 5 games and is averaging his lowest toi since 2020-21.

He will catch fire and score 18 points in 10 games.

Then he will get 3 points in the next 20. Then get hot again, then cold for twice as long and eventually finish the year with a cat hair shy of .5 points a game like usual.

Looking like a stud gamebreaker for 20 games and a husk tweener for the rest.

Like he always does.

 

[Big Muddy]

Today was a marathon day for watching hockey. I watched:

• Senators/TBL
• Oilers/Stars
• Florida/VGK
• Leafs/Rangers

 

[GCK]

IMO it never made any sense, trading a 24 y/o with good potential for a 35 y/o UFA at the end of the year while you are REBUILDING. You are never done rebuilding until you start making the playoffs regularly, it seems like Dorion never really understood that and squandered so many assets because of it.

Like most of my opinions, my opinion on Gustavsson wasn't just a brief one, I saw him play live at the 2018 rookie tournament and said here that I preferred Kevin Mandolese. It took a long time before I changed my mind on him but I eventually did a 180° in 2020-21 where he looked like he finally figured out pro NA hockey, he looked very good in both the AHL and NHL that season. Yes his NHL stats were not as good the following season but I personally take anything goalies did in Ottawa during our rebuild with a huge GRAIN OF SALT. DJ Dorion hockey was not easy on goalies, completely left out to dry most of the time



Wait, this is the argument for Coffey being better than Karlsson?



Joseph was a known quantity for us, I'd rather have him over Amadio and/or Perron, plus the pick and the cap space (in Perron's case). It better be an off-ice decision than a on-ice decision. If not, it's not looking like our pro scouting is any better than before.

Moving on from Gus for Talbot was idiotic.

Coffey was better than Karlsson but that’s not a slight at EK. Orr then. Coffey then debate
M

Joseph was a negative in his time with the Sens. I have no idea why anyone thinks he was anything more than Tyler Ennis.

 

[Knave]

Montreal is the team with the most puck luck and it's not even close.

 

[BondraTime]

Tyler Ennis was probably one of the best bottom 6 player the Sens have had since the last time they were in the playoffs.

 

[GCK]

Tyler Ennis was probably one of the best bottom 6 player the Sens have had since the last time they were in the playoffs.

lol, I respect your opinion but Ennis was the epitome of activity with zero value.

 

[BondraTime]

lol, I respect your opinion but Ennis was the epitome of activity with zero value.

Putting up .5 ppg on the 3rd line is very valuable. Different team and different year, but our bottom 6 isn’t looking too hot.

We’re going to have Perron put up about 20/25 points at 4 million a year in the bottom 6 with no PK this year.

(Perfectly fine grabbing him and letting Joseph go, but Joseph would be the better bottom 6 player for the Sens)

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

He will catch fire and score 18 points in 10 games.

Then he will get 3 points in the next 20. Then get hot again, then cold for twice as long and eventually finish the year with a cat hair shy of .5 points a game like usual.

Looking like a stud gamebreaker for 20 games and a husk tweener for the rest.

Like he always does.

Lol. He is a special kind of streaky. I have no doubt he'll end the season with 8-13 goals and 25-30 points. I think that's firmly what he is in the NHL when slotted correctly on a decent team.

I also appreciate he was effective on the PK, but that only really matters if the Senators struggle in that area this year and can be pointed to as something we lost.

 

[GCK]

Putting up .5 ppg on the 3rd line is very valuable. Different team and different year, but our bottom 6 isn’t looking too hot.

We’re going to have Perron put up about 20/25 points at 4 million a year in the bottom 6 with no PK this year.

(Perfectly fine grabbing him and letting Joseph go, but Joseph would be the better bottom 6 player for the Sens)

I’m of a different opinion. Perron brings a missing element. Besides Gregor was Joseph replacement and Cousins replaced Kelly IMO.

 

[Knave]

I feel like as long as Norris stays healthy in the lineup we can afford to go with Perron's nastiness and grit over Joseph.

We haven't had a problem scoring goals.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Looking back, I really wish we would've protected Daccord. Kid is a worker and a fighter and has been making steady improvement every year. So many goalies in and out of this organization.....

 

[SensFactor]

Utah are a tough out. They are really young, but can absolutely fly if you don't mark them. Gave Boston fits all night.

 

[DrEasy]

Looking back, I really wish we would've protected Daccord. Kid is a worker and a fighter and has been making steady improvement every year. So many goalies in and out of this organization.....

Daccord was available on waivers long after we lost him in the expansion draft, we could have brought him back if we wanted to. IIRC we had a choice between protecting Daccord and Gus. I was in favor of protecting Gus. I doubt Gus would have been waived after being taken from us.

 

[Big Muddy]

Joseph plays RW, Gregor is a LW.

Kelly is a Center. Cousins is playing LW.

The ideas of who replaces who seem rather arbitrary & seems to be defined by the end user versus on a positional basis.

Also, Perron is getting paid $4 m and is signed for 2 years, so we have to hope he elevates his play beyond all of these guys that are part of this discussion. He also has a 15 team M-NTC. He’s been pretty invisible so far IMHO.

Edit/Update - Joseph & Kelly’s positions are based on where St. Louis & Colorado have these players positioned.

 

[Micklebot]

Joseph plays RW, Gregor is a LW.

Kelly is a Center. Cousins is playing LW.

The ideas of who replaces who seem rather arbitrary & seems to be defined by the end user versus on a positional basis.

Also, Perron is getting paid $4 m and is signed for 2 years, so we have to hope he elevates his play beyond all of these guys that are part of this discussion. He also has a 15 team M-NTC. He’s been pretty invisible so far IMHO.

Joseph played both sides, and Kelly played LW and C, but generally I agree that people match guys up arbitrarily to fit their argument.

I've actually liked Perron despite him not directly producing, it doesn't tell the whole story, but he has the best xGF% on the team at 5v5, the issue is a dreadful on ice sh% of <3% and a sv% of .840. It's way too early in the season to get worked up about pts production, particularly for a guy expected to be around 45 pts.

.

 

[Big Muddy]

Joseph played both sides, and Kelly played LW and C, but generally I agree that people match guys up arbitrarily to fit their argument.

I've actually liked Perron despite him not directly producing, it doesn't tell the whole story, but he has the best xGF% on the team at 5v5, the issue is a dreadful on ice sh% of <3% and a sv% of .840. It's way too early in the season to get worked up about pts production, particularly for a guy expected to be around 45 pts.

.

Players that play more than one position is kind of helpful. I keep an eye on Perron waiting for him to do something that is noticeable, but just haven’t seen it. I made it pretty clear with words like “so far” that it's too early to pass judgement.