Around The League Thread | Let the Games Begin

[VanillaCoke]

Yep. If there is a contender in danger...it's them. We can all laugh at the Oilers, but they'll be fine and pull out of it. They seemingly have a disastrous stretch early in the season ever year.

Ppl keep repeating this and idk if it's factual, everything had to go right last season, imo it's unlikely a worse team repeats the same unlikely scenario again.

 

[bossram]

Ppl keep repeating this and idk if it's factual, everything had to go right last season, imo it's unlikely a worse team repeats the same unlikely scenario again.

I don't really get what you're saying here.

Is EDM the "worse team", as in worse relative to last season?

Their underlying numbers are strong. Problems are the same as before (shooting and goaltending), which typically regress toward average (and in the case of EDM, you'd think their baseline finishing would be stronger).

 

[WTG]

I think they will ultimately make the playoffs, but I wouldn't call them "fine". If there is no guarantee Nuke or Landy come back (and who knows how well Landeskog can even play after two years off), then there is no guarantee those situations get resolved.

It's probably bad if Landeskog comes back tbh. 7 million dollars for a player that hasn't seen icetime since 2022. He's a career 60 point guy and with an injury like his, like you say, he probably is done. Even if Nichushkin comes back, he's only played over 65 games in the regular season once that was his rookie year so he's good for around 50 points.

 

[tantalum]

I don't really get what you're saying here.

Is EDM the "worse team", as in worse relative to last season?

Their underlying numbers are strong. Problems are the same as before (shooting and goaltending), which typically regress toward average (and in the case of EDM, you'd think their baseline finishing would be stronger).

Can't really go by underlying numbers yet. Not enough of a sample size. Clearly they likely should have more goals scored but on the other hand watching the games they haven't played well. And really the canucks numbers are good through two games but in no world does anyone think they've played well! Same with the Oilers.

Things will regress to the mean over the long term but that is several dozen games. Look at the playoffs, the Oiler PK was killing at a ridiculous rate but there wasn't time for it to regress to the mean. Over multiple seasons they were a sub 80% killing team.

 

[bossram]

It's probably bad if Landeskog comes back tbh. 7 million dollars for a player that hasn't seen icetime since 2022. He's a career 60 point guy and with an injury like his, like you say, he probably is done. Even if Nichushkin comes back, he's only played over 65 games in the regular season once that was his rookie year so he's good for around 50 points.

Nuke is the real deal though. If he is in the lineup, he elevates them a ton.

Problem is they can't trust him to be available when they really need him.

Can't really go by underlying numbers yet. Not enough of a sample size. Clearly they likely should have more goals scored but on the other hand watching the games they haven't played well. And really the canucks numbers are good through two games but in no world does anyone think they've played well! Same with the Oilers.

Things will regress to the mean over the long term but that is several dozen games. Look at the playoffs, the Oiler PK was killing at a ridiculous rate but there wasn't time for it to regress to the mean. Over multiple seasons they were a sub 80% killing team.

I mean, yes it's a small sample size.

Also, if you think the Oilers are a true-talent ~3.5% shooting team, I don't know what to tell you. Skinner was a dogs breakfast last season...until he wasn't.

We've seen this story multiple seasons with the Oilers. They have a horrible stretch, sky is falling, blah blah etc. etc., then they turn around and make the playoffs just fine.

Yes, regression may take some time. It's the first week of an 82 game season.

 

[arttk]

Landy isn't a permanent LTIR, so they could only replace his cap hit for a year. Not acquire someone long term since there was still a chance he could return. Nuke, they committed to him long term and he had that incident in Seattle and has now taken leave. Like Landy, he may return so they can't commit that cap to someone else long term. So, kind of stuck with short term options for that cap.

Yeah Nuke is the one that is tricky. He could come back at any point with very little notice and there goes the cap. Also not sure but he still can go to the program once more, level 4, and come back.

 

[Ernie]

I mean, yes it's a small sample size.

Also, if you think the Oilers are a true-talent ~3.5% shooting team, I don't know what to tell you. Skinner was a dogs breakfast last season...until he wasn't.

We've seen this story multiple seasons with the Oilers. They have a horrible stretch, sky is falling, blah blah etc. etc., then they turn around and make the playoffs just fine.

Yes, regression may take some time. It's the first week of an 82 game season.

Obviously the Oilers will turn it around to an extent, but this is an indication of their weaknesses.

Their offseason is a bit bizarre. They've decided to go all in on offence to an unprecedented level, even more so than Dubas did with the Leafs. Sure, it probably looks great on some spreadsheet somewhere but this is a team that went down 3-1 to the Canucks and 3-0 to the Panthers in the playoffs.

Every single cup winner in the past decade has put at least an equal emphasis on defence as they have offence. The fact that they are trying to fix things by signing Shattenkirk instead of picking up a more defensively sound players like Friedman off of waivers is a bit mind boggling. They pencilled into their 2nd pairing a 24 year old who played on the 3rd pairing for the worst team in the league last season.

Anyways, as I said entering the season, this will be interesting to watch. I guess if they are lifting the cup at the end of the season I'll be eating my words, but I'm skeptical.

 

[Hansen]

Blast from Canuck past in the Sens 8-7 win vs Kings today:

View attachment 916660

MacEwen had 2 goals today.

MacEwen is listed as 240lbs now buddy has let go

 

[bossram]

Obviously the Oilers will turn it around to an extent, but this is an indication of their weaknesses.

Their offseason is a bit bizarre. They've decided to go all in on offence to an unprecedented level, even more so than Dubas did with the Leafs. Sure, it probably looks great on some spreadsheet somewhere but this is a team that went down 3-1 to the Canucks and 3-0 to the Panthers in the playoffs.

Every single cup winner in the past decade has put at least an equal emphasis on defence as they have offence. The fact that they are trying to fix things by signing Shattenkirk instead of picking up a more defensively sound players like Friedman off of waivers is a bit mind boggling. They pencilled into their 2nd pairing a 24 year old who played on the 3rd pairing for the worst team in the league last season.

Anyways, as I said entering the season, this will be interesting to watch. I guess if they are lifting the cup at the end of the season I'll be eating my words, but I'm skeptical.

I don't really get this manufactured narrative of "all in on offense" and "spreadsheet team" or whatever. Pretty much everyone thought the low-risk Skinner and Arvidsson signings were good. Everyone also knew they had cap problems and would have to jettison players, which is what happened.

Like, is Friedman supposed to be their saviour? Also a bizarre take.

People had bizarre narratives about them last year, and then they went to the Final.

As an aside, this "Dubas all offense no defense spreadsheet team hurr durr" narrative is a hilarious fabrication as well. In Dubas' later years, he was obsessed with adding gritty plugs and "leaders", to the detriment of the team. He acquired like 3 legitimate top-four defensemen to complement Reilly, during his tenure. Their downfall was a lack of scoring, not defending.

 

[Vector]

I don't really get this manufactured narrative of "all in on offense" and "spreadsheet team" or whatever. Pretty much everyone thought the low-risk Skinner and Arvidsson signings were good. Everyone also knew they had cap problems and would have to jettison players, which is what happened.

Like, is Friedman supposed to be their saviour? Also a bizarre take.

People had bizarre narratives about them last year, and then they went to the Final.

As an aside, this "Dubas all offense no defense spreadsheet team hurr durr" narrative is a hilarious fabrication as well. In Dubas' later years, he was obsessed with adding gritty plugs and "leaders", to the detriment of the team. Their downfall was a lack of scoring, not defending.

Well kind of. The Leafs have never ever, and still haven't, actually been able to get their defence looking good. Pretty much everyone they get can do one thing and failed to get any effective two-way defencemen. Offense stalled because other than Rielly they can't get the puck going or utilize their defencemen in the offensive zone. They tried one time with Jake Muzzin, he broke down, and haven't tried again.

 

[Ernie]

I don't really get this manufactured narrative of "all in on offense" and "spreadsheet team" or whatever. Pretty much everyone thought the low-risk Skinner and Arvidsson signings were good. Everyone also knew they had cap problems and would have to jettison players, which is what happened.

Like, is Friedman supposed to be their saviour? Also a bizarre take.

People had bizarre narratives about them last year, and then they went to the Final.

As an aside, this "Dubas all offense no defense spreadsheet team hurr durr" narrative is a hilarious fabrication as well. In Dubas' later years, he was obsessed with adding gritty plugs and "leaders", to the detriment of the team. He acquired like 3 legitimate top-four defensemen to complement Reilly, during his tenure. Their downfall was a lack of scoring, not defending.

So many contradictions in this post! Sorry to have touched a nerve.

Lots of people thought the Skinner / Arvidsson signings were good because they were considered solid bang for the buck, but as you say they had cap issues so even a good deal becomes a bad one when you have to cut on other essentials.

As for the Leafs, the lack of acquiring responsible top 4 defensemen is exactly what I mean! And yes their scoring dried up in the playoffs, but they scored plenty in the regular season. Things get a lot tighter in the playoffs which is kind of my point.

For what it's worth I also don't like people knocking analytics. But there is a certain philosophy amongst some analytics people that you can outscore all of your problems, which hasn't been reflected in the results when it comes to the playoffs.

 

[bossram]

Well kind of. The Leafs have never ever, and still haven't, actually been able to get their defence looking good. Pretty much everyone they get can do one thing and failed to get any effective two-way defencemen. Offense stalled because other than Rielly they can't get the puck going or utilize their defencemen in the offensive zone. They tried one time with Jake Muzzin, he broke down, and haven't tried again.

In consecutive seasons, Dubas added the likes of Brodie, Muzzin, Giordano, McCabe. 3/4 were in their primes at the time and quality players (top-four calibre at minimum). I would categorize Muzzin and McCabe in the two-way mold, not defense-only. He substantially upgraded their blueline and significantly improved their defensive results.

Another big part of the Leafs offense drying up in the playoffs was the PP going cold. The blame for that is diffuse.

So many contradictions in this post! Sorry to have touched a nerve.

Lots of people thought the Skinner / Arvidsson signings were good because they were considered solid bang for the buck, but as you say they had cap issues so even a good deal becomes a bad one when you have to cut on other essentials.

As for the Leafs, the lack of acquiring responsible top 4 defensemen is exactly what I mean! And yes their scoring dried up in the playoffs, but they scored plenty in the regular season. Things get a lot tighter in the playoffs which is kind of my point.

For what it's worth I also don't like people knocking analytics. But there is a certain philosophy amongst some analytics people that you can outscore all of your problems, which hasn't been reflected in the results when it comes to the playoffs.

The contradictions are from you friend.

How is a cap strapped team going to substantially upgrade the blueline? (Well, if any team listened to me they would have Kovacevic, but we'll ignore that)...Any other bargain basement top-four D-men?

And you literally are interpreting the opposite of what I'm saying regarding the Leafs. Dubas did add several quality defensemen. Their defensive results substantially improved. But they needed to score more goals in the playoffs. They needed offense. The defending was good. But your criticism is that they focussed too much on offense.

Please show me where "analytics" say that you should exclusively focus on "outscoring all your problems". Which article is that? Which metric is that?

 

[Ernie]

How is a cap strapped team going to substantially upgrade the blueline? (Well, if any team listened to me they would have Kovacevic, but we'll ignore that)...Any other bargain basement top-four D-men?

They could spend the $7m they spent on their "great deals" on filling out their defence.