Around The League Thread | Let the Games Begin

[Wisp]

I knew the Kraken would be lol the minute they announced Ron Francis as GM.

 

[timw33]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1844064044157952361

Is it me or are hockey reporters getting progressively stupider.

This is very specifically not how the cap works or how they should be thinking about the Ullmark contract, you do not get to average in this year's 5MM in any calculus of this deal. Like, they didn't even negotiate in the very good value $5MM last year of his previous contract.

Just an extremely dumb "analysis" trying to make it seem like Ottawa didn't just pay a premium price out of desperation to solve their goaltending crisis.

 

[Ernie]

Is it me or are hockey reporters getting progressively stupider.

This is Dreger, he's always been this bad.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Seattle made the classic mistake of entrusting the guy who screwed up in the first place as the architect of the solution. That never works. We did it with Benning, too.

 

[credulous]

i really liked what francis did up until this offseason. i can kinda see the logic behind the montour deal but the stephenson one is just mystifying

i still think they'll be pretty good if they can develop some of their billion prospects but they're gonna hit a cap wall pretty quick

 

[timw33]

We have two totally solid NHL depth D men fully cleared on our AHL team 90 minutes down the road. This is a great position to be in heading into the season.

IIRC with these moves we are pacing for 5.67MM of deadline cap space, not that I think that will hold up with various injuries etc.

Will be curious to see if they yo-yo Raty/Bains on paper to pick up $4k of cap space per day per player.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

The “Insiders” are only good for breaking news.

If you get into the weeds of their opinions, most of them are raving morons.

And none of them will say a peep about the stories that actually matter for fear of losing that precious inside status.

Spineless weasels, the lot of them.

 

[StreetHawk]

We have two totally solid NHL depth D men fully cleared on our AHL team 90 minutes down the road. This is a great position to be in heading into the season.

IIRC with these moves we are pacing for 5.67MM of deadline cap space, not that I think that will hold up with various injuries etc.

Will be curious to see if they yo-yo Raty/Bains on paper to pick up $4k of cap space per day per player.

If they were going to do that, games 1 and 2 would be the time to do so and run a minimum roster until they fly out to Florida (and who knows the damage this Hurricane Milton will do). If it's really bad, they'd probably be better off relocating the game elsewhere, be it to Sunrise or something if they are going to have to reschedule multiple home games as TB his scheduled to have a 3 game homestand following this Hurricane, with Van as the 2nd game.

You are not going to yo yo guys when on the road. It can only really be done when you are at home. Can't take the chance that guys can't arrive on the road. Given their ages, these are not the types to yo yo up and down. PDG at his age, I can understand, same with Friedman.

 

[tantalum]

Not that I necessarily agree with it, but I'll point out that Demko got this same contract 3 years ago with a similar record. This is the kind of money an average starter makes. Worthwhile to remember that SV% has dropped about 10% over the past few seasons, and the .916 he put up last season is tied for 3rd amongst all goalies who played at least 41 games last season.

Goalies are voodoo and while the Demko contract has worked out, it could have easily been another Benning screwup.

It's going to be interesting to see what this management group does with Demko when his contract expires. If he's healthy and maintains his numbers he's priced himself in the $8-10m range.

Completely different career trajectory. One is a 28 year old goaltender who until last year was a 3rd string goaltender who now has 69 (giggitty) NHL games under his belt. The other was a 25 year old starter who already took the job of the guy ahead of him on the depth chart after steady and continuing development since the day he was drafted. It was still a risk for sure but the risk levels are significantly different. Add in the Kraken already have a pretty highly paid goaltender and the canucks didn't. Kraken are spending a lot of money at that position.

 

[arttk]

i really liked what francis did up until this offseason.

explains a lot

 

[Hodgy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1844064044157952361

Is it me or are hockey reporters getting progressively stupider.

This is very specifically not how the cap works or how they should be thinking about the Ullmark contract, you do not get to average in this year's 5MM in any calculus of this deal. Like, they didn't even negotiate in the very good value $5MM last year of his previous contract.

Just an extremely dumb "analysis" trying to make it seem like Ottawa didn't just pay a premium price out of desperation to solve their goaltending crisis.

You are right, its a really dumb way of thinking of it.

But on the Ullmark contract, initially, I thought it was a bad contract, and questioned why Ottawa would commit so much before seeing him play a game in Ottawa. And I still think that is a fair criticism.

But with that said, Ottawa (like other undesirable teams) is really in a tough situation. Ullmark can basically say to them that he is willing to sign this contract right now but that he won't be re-signing with them if he has a good year (or even average year) as he will test free agency and sign in a better location with a lower income tax. So, if Ottawa thinks he is good (and they must since they acquired him) and thinks he will play well this year, they should in fact lock him up and pay the Ottawa tax on top of his FMV which they seem to have done.

So, on the fact of it, it looks like a bad contract, but I really don't envy the position Ottawa was in.

 

[StreetHawk]

Ott got jumped by Dallas in 2017 as I recall there were draft analysts that had them taking Ottenger. Ended up drafted Sogaard in 2019 in round 2. But, he had a rough 2nd year as a pro splitting time in the NHL and A with bad numbers at both. 3.3 GAA and sub 0.9 %. Bounced back last season with strong numbers in the A, but only 32 games.
Probably hoping Sogaard is ready to challenge for #1 in about 3 seasons. Then deal with Ullmark then.

NHL goalies like QBs. Can go cheap and they end up like a Fitzpatrick/Minschew who can go a few weeks with solid play then go bad for 3-4 weeks. Same with goalies. Give you 2 solid years then blow up. If you don't have a QB you are in trouble. If you don't have solid goaltending, you're in trouble too.

 

[arttk]

You are right, its a really dumb way of thinking of it.

But on the Ullmark contract, initially, I thought it was a bad contract, and questioned why Ottawa would commit so much before seeing him play a game in Ottawa. And I still think that is a fair criticism.

But with that said, Ottawa (like other undesirable teams) is really in a tough situation. Ullmark can basically say to them that he is willing to sign this contract right now but that he won't be re-signing with them if he has a good year (or even average year) as he will test free agency and sign in a better location with a lower income tax. So, if Ottawa thinks he is good (and they must since they acquired him) and thinks he will play well this year, they should in fact lock him up and pay the Ottawa tax on top of his FMV which they seem to have done.

So, on the fact of it, it looks like a bad contract, but I really don't envy the position Ottawa was in.

considering he signed at 4x8.25M, even though there are risks invovled, probably would be better to hold ground and actually pony up like extra millions or years if he performs well. the risk of having an anchor contract for 4 years >>>>>>> overpay a guy that can actually perform by a year or 2 with an extra M.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

You are right, its a really dumb way of thinking of it.

But on the Ullmark contract, initially, I thought it was a bad contract, and questioned why Ottawa would commit so much before seeing him play a game in Ottawa. And I still think that is a fair criticism.

But with that said, Ottawa (like other undesirable teams) is really in a tough situation. Ullmark can basically say to them that he is willing to sign this contract right now but that he won't be re-signing with them if he has a good year (or even average year) as he will test free agency and sign in a better location with a lower income tax. So, if Ottawa thinks he is good (and they must since they acquired him) and thinks he will play well this year, they should in fact lock him up and pay the Ottawa tax on top of his FMV which they seem to have done.

So, on the fact of it, it looks like a bad contract, but I really don't envy the position Ottawa was in.

It probably is a bad contract, but I can see why Ottawa does it. They are desperate for goaltending to start winning with this group. Granted, Boston is a very goalie-friendly team to play for and Ottawa is the opposite of that. Ullmark does have some very good numbers for Buffalo which is promising. He is 31 though and how long he can keep that up is a question. I do think they are better off betting on Ullmark not regressing than another Korpisalo type in free agency.

 

[Ernie]

I think the Ullmark contract is pretty reasonable on the whole. He has 250 NHL games with two different organizations and has put up .915 or higher save percentage in 5 straight seasons, which is very solid consistency. Goalies usually are a bit older than skaters before their numbers start falling off. His playoff record is a bit of a concern but the Senators would just like to make the playoffs at this point.

 

[Hodgy]

considering he signed at 4x8.25M, even though there are risks invovled, probably would be better to hold ground and actually pony up like extra millions or years if he performs well. the risk of having an anchor contract for 4 years >>>>>>> overpay a guy that can actually perform by a year or 2 with an extra M.

Ottawa is going to have to pay the Ottawa tax no matter when he signs. Its probably a bit less now than later, but they are always going to have to pay it outside of some limited exceptions like Giroux.

But if Ottawa didn't re-sign him now, there is a very good chance (and a position that Ullmark could legitimately and realistically take right now) that he just wouldn't re-sign with Ottawa because he could sign to play for a team that is a combination of the following: (1) better than Ottawa; (2) in a much nicer City than Ottawa; or (3) is in a jurisdiction with a far lower income tax.

The whole "they can just pay more" isn't necessarily true.

 

[StreetHawk]

Also seeing an adjustment in the goalie market. Sorokin, Helly, Swayman now into the $8 mill range. Ahead of them are Vasi in the mid $9’s and Bob/Price at $10 mill.
Currently Gibson in Ana at $6.4 is next after the $8 mill goalies in terms of highest AAV.