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Phion Keneuf said:
McDavid has 17 points in 7 games
Draisaitl with 16 points in 7 games

Would be nice if our top guys scored at even half of that rate in the playoffs.
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They would easily get to half those numbers if they played a similar game. You don't see McDrai avoiding any physical engagement and they'll both drive the net. Far more motion on the PP makes it difficult for the PK to maintain it's structure. Once that breaks down, get the puck to McDavid and watch the mayhem that ensues and bang the puck home once defensive chaos kicks in.
 
Legion34 said:
He had no where near the resume at the time of signing. If that’s the case next year. We will see
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Draisaitl had a fairly better pre-contract year then marner

Draisaitl came I think 8th in scoring in 2017 with 77 in 82 and 10th in ppg

Marner comes 11th in scoring in 2019 with 94 in 82 and 15th in ppg

Draisaitl had an incredible 2017 playoffs with 16 pts in 13 games and led the oilers to R2 Game 7 in WCSF

Marner had 4 pts in 7 games in playoffs in 2019. His career playoff numbers were 17 pts in 20 games

Draisaitl was a 3rd OA pick and a player projected to be a big bodied center with elite offensive game

Marner was a 4th OA pick who was a small skzed but shifty winger with elite game

Both played in CAD markets, so no tax impact excuses really

Draisaitl signed for 8.5M x 8 in Aug 16 2017 or 11.33% of salary cap

Marner signed for 10.893M x 6 or 13.38% of salary cap

Marner adjusted for term got closer to 15% of cap vs 11.33% for Draisaitl

Marner got ridicously overpaid against all comparables. Draisaitl, Barkov, Eichel, Rantanen, Aho etc
 
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hamzarocks said:
Draisaitl had pretty much the same pre-contract year as Marner

Draisaitl came I think 8th-10th in scoring in 2017 with 79 in 82

Marner cames 8th - 10th in scoring in 2019 with 94 in 82

Draisaitl had an incredible 2017 playoffs with 16 pts in 13 games and led the oilers to R2 Game 7 in WCSF

Marner had 4 pts in 7 games in playoffs in 2019. His career playoff numbers were 17 pts in 20 games

Draisaitl was a 3rd OA pick and a player projected to be a big bodied center with elite offensive game

Marner was a 4th OA pick who was a small skzed but shifty winger with elite game

Both played in CAD markets, so no tax impact excuses really

Draisaitl signed for 8.5M x 8 in Aug 16 2017 or 11.33% of salary cap

Marner signed for 10.893M x 6 or 13.38% of salary cap

Marner adjusted for term got closer to 15% of cap vs 11.33% for Draisaitl

Marner got ridicously overpaid against all comparables. Draisaitl, Barkov, Eichel, Rantanen, Aho etc
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Drai had a terrible 2 years prior Marner had like 210 pts.

Drai was seen as an over pay at the time. He killed it.

Marner absolutely was about 1.5 million overpaid. He lived up to it pretty much. But should have been about 9.25 plus the bonuses he was owed.

Eichel was the over paid one.
 
Legion34 said:
Drai had a terrible 2 years prior Marner had like 210 pts.

Drai was seen as an over pay at the time. He killed it.

Marner absolutely was about 1.5 million overpaid. He lived up to it pretty much. But should have been about 9.25 plus the bonuses he was owed.
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Draisaitl had 51 pts in 72 games in 2016 his first full season in the NHL

Or a 58 pt pace per 82 for the 2nd worst team in the NHL

Marner had 61 in 77 or 65 pts per 82 in a much better team than 2016 oilers were and then 69 pts in 82 in 2018 on much better team than 2016 oilers (fringe playoff team in 2017 and then 105 pt team which was 7th most in the league in 2018)

Marner was fortunate to get sent down in 2015-2016 otherwise his ppg would tank and he would have been signed off a 69 pt year similar to nylander (61 pt year for him in 2018)

Draisaitl had oilers burn a hear of his ELC in 2014-2015 for some dumb reason playing him 37 games when he wasnt NHL ready, which marner never had to do

You are not owed a single $ as an unproven rookie. Marner wasnt owed any bonuses.

He was worth at max 9M x 8 years

He got 3-4M overpaid when factoring term of 6 years
 
hamzarocks said:
Draisaitl had 51 pts in 72 games in 2016 his first full season in the NHL

Or a 58 pt pace per 82

Marner had 61 in 77 or 65 pts per 82 in a much better team than 2016 oilers were and then 69 pts in 82 in 2018 on much better team than 2016 oilers

Marner was fortunate to get sent down in 2015-2016 otherwise his ppg would tank and hed be signed off a 69 pt year. Draisaitl had oilers burn a hear of his ELC in 2014-2015 for some dumb reason playing him 37 games when he wasnt NHL ready, which marner never had to do

Your not owed a single $ as an unproven rookie. Marner wasnt owed any bonuses.

He was worth at max 9M x 8 years

He got 3-4M overpaid when factoring term of 6 years
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drai had no where near the resume Marner did at the time. He clearly is a better player and I would have traded them in a second.

But that’s not at the time of the deal. These are facts

Marner relented on performance bonuses because Lou said he didn’t give them. Then turned around and gave them to Matty. Willy and Matty got them. Marner didn’t.

He had every right to ask for the money he would have earned. That wasn’t fair.

Even with that money. He was still about 1.5 million overpaid. He did well

95 pt player. 2x first team all star. Selke nominee. He lived up to the contract.

Still should have been about 9.5 factoring in bonuses and 210 pts in ELC.
 
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Legion34 said:
drai had no where near the resume Marner did at the time. He clearly is a better player and I would have traded them in a second.

But that’s not at the time of the deal. These are facts

Marner relented on performance bonuses because Lou said he didn’t give them. Then turned around and gave them to Matty. Willy and Matty got them. Marner didn’t.

He had every right to ask for the money he would have earned. That wasn’t fair.

Even with that money. He was still about 1.5 million overpaid. He did well

95 pt player. 2x first team all star. Selke nominee. He lived up to the contract.

Still should have been about 9.5 factoring in bonuses and 210 pts in ELC.
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They arent facts they are literally your opinion

Your ignoring context behind marners ELC and just stating 210 pts vs 137 for Draisaitl

Marner had 0 + 61 + 69 if your comparing their direct seasons. He had 130 pts in his 3 years post draft vs 137 in 3 for draisaitl

If your looking at body of ELC Matthews looked pretty overpaid with 69 + 63 pts in his first two seasons only

Maybe 9.5M x 8 may have been fine. 500K-1M overpayment that he could hopefully grow into

9.5 x 6 is still way to much for a winger who showed to be a poor playoff player already in 2019 prior to his signing

Nylander and Marner both have higher ELC ppg numbers due to not playing in 2015 (nylander) and 2016 teams much (nylander played 22 games and marner 0)

They and Matthews all joined the leafs at the right time.
 
hamzarocks said:
They arent facts they are literally your opinion

Your ignoring context behind marners ELC and just stating 210 pts vs 137 for Draisaitl

Marner had 0 + 61 + 69 if your comparing their direct seasons. He had 130 pts in his 3 years post draft vs 137 in 3 for draisaitl

If your looking at body of ELC Matthews looked pretty overpaid with 69 + 63 pts in his first two seasons only

Maybe 9.5M x 8 may have been fine. 500K-1M overpayment that he could hopefully grow into

9.5 x 6 is still way to much for a winger who showed to be a poor playoff player already in 2019 prior to his signing

Nylander and Marner both have higher ELC ppg numbers due to not playing in 2015 (nylander) and 2016 teams much (nylander played 22 games and marner 0)

They and Matthews all joined the leafs at the right time.
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People don’t get paid for context. Comparables are comparables. You aren’t looking at the right things.
Goals and points both total and per game lead to contracts.

That’s the formula. It was proven. We went over this ad nauseum

Drai was a year older than Marner. He came to the NHL at 19 just like him.

Marner had a lot more points and goals even.
Comparing Matthews is missing the point.

This is not true. Since 1995-1996

Matthews was top 10 in goals goals per game points points per game as an ELC.

He was 2nd in goals behind ovy. He got what he was worth. 14% x5 was fair for him based on comparables. (Malkin, Crosby,Nash, Kovy got more).

Facts are facts. There are charts. Context is silly. Arbitration hearings don’t use context
 
Legion34 said:
People don’t get paid for context. Comparables are comparables. You aren’t looking at the right things.
Goals and points both total and per game lead to contracts.

That’s the formula. It was proven. We went over this ad nauseum

Drai was a year older than Marner. He came to the NHL at 19 just like him.

Marner had a lot more points and goals even.
Comparing Matthews is missing the point.

This is not true. Since 1995-1996

Matthews was top 10 in goals goals per game points points per game as an ELC.

He was 2nd in goals behind ovy. He got what he was worth. 14% x5 was fair for him based on comparables. (Malkin, Crosby,Nash, Kovy got more).

Facts are facts. There are charts. Context is silly. Arbitration hearings don’t use context
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Draisaitl played his D+1 not his D+2. Age doesnt matter its when you play post draft. There will always be age differences in drafts between different players. Marner got the advantage of not having to play his D+1 on a tanking horrible team like Draisaitl which is the only reason for better ELC numbers

That is the only reason for Marner having better ELC numbers in his D+2 and D+3 years vs Draisaitl in his D+1 & D+2 years

Matthews didnt have a season as good as either Draisatil or Marner 2017 and 2019

He got paid prematurely to 11.634 x 5 (signed after a super hot start in 2018-2019 which ended with 73 pts in 68 games) which he did have 3 years of living up to so his deal isnt as bad as Marners who had 1 year where be lived up to it (2021-2022)

Marner had advantages in team quality, line mate quality, league scoring level rising during his ELC, delayed ELC start.

It was the job of Dubas to negotiate and bring all this context to the table. He turned a blind eye, overpaid marmer by 3M and marner just continued to prove he isnt a guy you can build around

The handling of WN, MM, and AM contracts alone should have gotten Dubas fired

He gave them everything they wanted when all 3 had comparables signed to better deals.

Rantanen literally signed after that disgraceful of a contract at 9.25M x 6 (overpaid too compared to Draisaitl after Marner deal). Sakic threw the Marner deal out the water and signed the better and more promising player to a lower deal
 
tmlms13 said:
Look at the goalies they've played
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We played Swayman a .894 goalie vs the panthers this year through 3 games

Same swayman who had and .875 in game 7 choke vs Panthers in 2023

And a .911 in 5 games vs Panthera in 2022

Besides his 6 games vs the leafs in 2p24, Swayman has been an average to really shit playoff goalie
 
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hamzarocks said:
Draisaitl played his D+1 not his D+2. Age doesnt matter its when you play post draft. There will always be age differences in drafts between different players. Marner got the advantage of not having to play his D+1 on a tanking horrible team like Draisaitl which is the only reason for better ELC numbers

That is the only reason for Marner having better ELC numbers in his D+2 and D+3 years vs Draisaitl in his D+1 & D+2 years

Matthews didnt have a season as good as either Draisatil or Marner 2017 and 2019

He got paid prematurely to 11.634 x 5 (signed after a super hot start in 2018-2019 which ended with 73 pts in 68 games) which he did have 3 years of living up to so his deal isnt as bad as Marners who had 1 year where be lived up to it (2021-2022)

Marner had advantages in team quality, line mate quality, league scoring level rising during his ELC, delayed ELC start.

It was the job of Dubas to negotiate and bring all this context to the table. He turned a blind eye, overpaid marmer by 3M and marner just continued to prove he isnt a guy you can build around

The handling of WN, MM, and AM contracts alone should have gotten Dubas fired

He gave them everything they wanted when all 3 had comparables signed to better deals.

Rantanen literally signed after that disgraceful of a contract at 9.25M x 6 (overpaid too compared to Draisaitl after Marner deal). Sakic threw the Marner deal out the water and signed the better and more promising player to a lower deal
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Literally go back and read the thread and articles. Hockey reference. Goals points raw and per game.

Matthew was well within his comparables at 14% x 5 (Crosby. Malkin. Nash. Staal. Stamkos. Kovy).

Willy was around his comparables (gaudreau, forsberg, ehlers etc). His negotiation holf
Out was stupid but his contract was fair

Marner had a direct comparable at 9.25. Marner should have got that plus the ELC money he was owed.

He was still overpaid.

Facts are facts. Go back and read all the comparables. And posts and models.

Repeating draft plus 1 and context that has no bearing is irrelevant.
 
Legion34 said:
Literally go back and read the thread and articles. Hockey reference. Goals points raw and per game.

Matthew was well within his comparables at 14% x 5 (Crosby. Malkin. Nash. Staal. Stamkos. Kovy).

Willy was around his comparables (gaudreau, forsberg, ehlers etc). His negotiation holf
Out was stupid but his contract was fair

Marner had a direct comparable at 9.25. Marner should have got that plus the ELC money he was owed.

He was still overpaid.

Facts are facts. Go back and read all the comparables. And posts and models.

Repeating draft plus 1 and context that has no bearing is irrelevant.
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Its irelevent simply b/c you want it to be

Nylander got paid 6.96M for 6 years (sat out 1/3 of 2019). Ehlers got 6M x 7, Pastranak a better player got 6.6 x 6

Matthews got 5 years which was the problem. The 5 year post ELC deal was dead until we gave it to Matthews. We should have gotten that at 7 or 8 years term. Matthews will now make 13.25M before mcdavids 12.5M contract and draisaitls 8.5M expire. Still Matthews deal you swallow as hes a top 5 player in the world past 3 of 4 years.

He is worth the money mostly besides the playoffs so far. His build and style makes it more a sure fire bet he will become a playoff beast and dominate for a cup run there sooner than later

You are not owed ELC money. Marner wasnt good enough to play his D+1 unlike Matthews. He wasnt good enpugh to win Calder and be a major award finalist like matthews (Rocket) he was also a average playoff performer and not some crazy beast.

Lou did the right thing not giving him bonuses on his ELC Dubas f***ed it up by paying him 3M more than he deserved on a 6 year deal with full signing bonuses and an NMC 2 years before becoming a UFA. A competent GM hardballs marner and looks for either a good deal which fits the teams long term strategic window or finds a blockbuster deal to shake up a core where the sense of entitlement was starting to form (nylander hold out, matthews making babcock come to arizona due to not liking playing with hyman etc)

All the articles you mentioned tried hard to justify the big 3 deals and were prop pieces to defend the bad deals from Dubas and Co.

Marner full stop isnt a 13+% of cap player at any term. He should have come around 11% for full 8 years as he had achieved nothing but put up good numbers on a stacked leafs offensive team from 2017 to 2019 while having no standout playoff runs where he took us deep into the playoffs

On the leafs alone he was

2017 - 4th to 6th best player (Andersen, Matthews, Kadri, Nylander JVR and Him with first 3 being clear cut top 3 on the team)

2018 - 2nd to 3rd best player - Matthews best again, Andersen and Marner for 2nd and 3rd

2019 - 1st to 4th - Tavares, Rielly, Andersen and Marner could all be argued for best player that season for the leafs
 
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