Maukkis
EZ4ENCE
- Mar 16, 2016
- 10,641
- 7,461
I, for one, quite like the 'out-PDO the f*** out of everyone and watch people brag about the team on HFBoards' approach. Also known as the Vegas model.
Tom Wilson 6 years at 31 million. Yikes.
This seems crazy...
Much more.Brady signing today with NYR should help focus in on what Trouba is really worth.
Much more.
Skjei is a Morrissey comparable. Would not be shocked to see the two getting identical deals.
I love glue guys, character guys, guys who go into the corner, and I am sceptical “fancy stats” but good gravy that Tom Wilson contract seems terrible to me. I’m surprised the Capitals fans are defending it.
Guys with intangibles (which I actually think is a legit thing) should not be paid as if they are superstars.
This makes me even more happy about the Lowry signing. Not that Lowsie is a filthy head shot artist like Wilson so I’m hesitant to make too much of a comparison, but Lowry is out physical guy you don’t want to go into the corners with who adds some secondary scoring.
Comparing what Lowry did in 45 games and the playoffs is not the same as Wilson when you dig a bit deeper into the stats. Lowry carried everyone with him (mostly "4th liners") and shut down and dominated everyone, as a C.regarding fancystats and such: there's actually another similarity between Lowry and Wilson besides the whole physical play stuff. I'd call it a lesson on sample sizes and age curves more than fancystats...
what probably (imo) makes some Washington fans "defend" the contract: 2018 Playoffs Tom Wilson (21 games) is actually a really good player according to the basic fancystats. Above average first line scoring at evens, Corgis are barking. Easily worth over $5M.
In the same way, the fancystats of 17-18 Regular Season Adam Lowry (45 games) looked like he'd be easily worth $6M, as I've argued in this post.
But in both cases, you're not signing 2018 Playoffs Wilson or 17-18 Regular Season Lowry; you're signing Tom Wilson or Adam Lowry. Both have a long history of not being 2018 Playoffs Wilson or 17-18 Regular Season Lowry, but significantly worse. Fans might tend to think they're young so it was a "breakout" instead of a random hot streak (24 years really isn't "young" for most players). I wonder what would have happened had Lowry's offensive production carried on into the playoffs (this is a neutral statement, I really do wonder).
by the way: another example of a player whose numbers hinted at an above average first line forward is 14-15 Marko Dano (38 games). His 2.43 5v5 P/60 was better than all 17-18 Jets forwards, and a +6 CF%Rel on top of that? Small samples...
Comparing what Lowry did in 45 games and the playoffs is not the same as Wilson when you dig a bit deeper into the stats. Lowry carried everyone with him (mostly "4th liners") and shut down and dominated everyone, as a C.
2 out of 3 isn’t too badWilson is winning life right now. Cup, contract, gf from Winnipeg...
I hope Ceci doesn't sign a contract prior to his arbitration award being announced.
With the asks being 3.5 (team) and 6 (player), I want to see how the impartial arbitrator handles this one. You could argue that Ceci does not deserve that 3.5 that has been offered by the Sens. If he decides to split the difference, I will seriously question the competence of whoever is in charge of evaluating players in these cases.
In those cases, going down the middle was even somewhat sensible. When it comes to Ceci, 4.75 would be just a gross overestimation of what Ceci is and has no bearings on his results.What a job. You get paid to listen to both side argue ( in the case of Trouba it was said to be 6 hours ) and then you make the decision you had already decided you were going to make before the meeting even started.... right down the middle.
Two players so far went to arbitration meetings this year ( Trouba - WPG, Kulak - CAL ) both were awarded a split.
I hope Ceci doesn't sign a contract prior to his arbitration award being announced.
With the asks being 3.5 (team) and 6 (player), I want to see how the impartial arbitrator handles this one. You could argue that Ceci does not deserve that 3.5 that has been offered by the Sens. If he decides to split the difference, I will seriously question the competence of whoever is in charge of evaluating players in these cases.
There's no way Cici is worth 3.5 million. The sens were forced to offer that as a minimum, because of RFA rules.
What RFA rule compels the team to offer more than the player is worth?
You cannot go below whatever the player's qualifying offer is. That goes for both arbitration cases and other contracts.What RFA rule compels the team to offer more than the player is worth?
You cannot go below whatever the player's qualifying offer is. That goes for both arbitration cases and other contracts.
Now, Ceci's base salary from last year was 3.35 million, so they did offer a bit more.
I think there is a mandatory bump of 5/10% to qualifying offers that are near the league minimum. Don't remember the exact terms, but if you're making over a million, it shouldn't apply.Don't qualifying offers also have to have a base inflation of 5% over the previous year salary? Either way, there's no way Cody Ceci is worth that much.
I think there is a mandatory bump of 5/10% to qualifying offers that are near the league minimum. Don't remember the exact terms, but if you're making over a million, it shouldn't apply.
Midpoint between 6 million and 3.5 is 4.75 million.
Would you rather have: An open roster/contract spot OR Cici for 1x4.75 million?
I'd take the open roster spot. At 3.5 I'd think about it.