Around the League 2017-18 Edition

[AngelDuck]

Well...in theory yes. That's not always how it works though.

And that's where GM's run into problems in my opinion. When you start giving ridiculously long term commitments to players that are good but aren't really even in your core, it usually ends up hurting.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Yeah I realize they can match, but that's a lot of leverage he and his agent have. If Vegas low balls him they can just wait around for a better offer and make Vegas pay him more in the end anyway. I think he ends up signing at 5 to 6 million per season and I'd bet if Vegas is trying to get him at between 4 and 5 they will just wait it out until an offer in the higher range comes. I could be wrong though. I know he is arbitration eligible so maybe that impacts things too.

If a team offers him 6 and 6 isnt that 4 1st rounders for vegas?

Nvm was reading an old one... either way the point stands do you want to risk mutiple picks and a big contract on someone with very limited history of these #s...

 

[Pennaduck]

If a team offers him 6 and 6 isnt that 4 1st rounders for vegas?

Nvm

Not that I remember. I just googled it and it looks like $3,925,976 to $5,888,960 is a 1st and 3rd, and $5,888,961 to $7,851,948 is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Four 1sts is 9.8 million and above.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Not that I remember. I just googled it and it looks like $3,925,976 to $5,888,960 is a 1st and 3rd, and $5,888,961 to $7,851,948 is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Four 1sts is 9.8 million and above.

Ya my bad i was reading an old 1, but either way your investing a lot of picks and money on something that isnt a sure thing... ans those picks arnt lottery protected.

 

[HanSolo]

And that's where GM's run into problems in my opinion. When you start giving ridiculously long term commitments to players that are good but aren't really even in your core, it usually ends up hurting.

I agree. I don't want to see Vegas make that mistake. In fact, I don't think Karlsson even deserves to make more than Marchesseault. 40 goals be damned, Marchesseault (despite the recent slump) has been Vegas' best forward. In Florida he showed flashes of playmaking capabilities but he really only ended up being something of a glass cannon for them. In Vegas his playmaking has been superb. I'd hesitate to say he's on the level of a Getzlaf or Crosby, but I wouldn't have a problem saying he's in that next tier. The way he draws defenders to him and finds tight seams to pull of incredible passes is just thrilling to watch. I only think that lately he's been gripping the stick a little more given Vegas' struggles and injury trouble. Karlsson's hockey IQ puts him in the right place at the right time for Marchesseault and Smith to find him with these incredible passes. Wild Bill in my opinion HAS the tools to start doing this without the help but he still needs to improve several areas of his game.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Not that I remember. I just googled it and it looks like $3,925,976 to $5,888,960 is a 1st and 3rd, and $5,888,961 to $7,851,948 is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Four 1sts is 9.8 million and above.

Correct but the total amount is based on a 5 year deal even if it's longer than 5 years. So a 6x6 deal would be set at 7.2m per. Regardless of the compensation though is the fact that no one is offersheeting that big of contract on top of giving draft picks for him. Offer sheets are extremely rare to begin with. If there is a contract dispute this summer it will likely go to arbitration and then Vegas will get a short term deal anyways.

 

[Pennaduck]

I also forgot to add that Karlsson doesn't necessarily have a ton of leverage. The guy has to know how much better he's been able to be because of his linemates. No coach around the league of a team capable of making the playoffs is gonna give him first line duties with excellent wingers.

It's 100% in Karlsson's best interest to try to stay with this Jack Adams lock of a coach and a line he has proven himself with. Anything else born out overzealous presumptions on his own talent could be catastrophic to his career.

I agree completely with your second part here, but I don't understand the first point. If another team brought him in, why wouldn't they try to replicate his successful season by giving him first line minutes and surrounding him with their best wingers?

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I dont think anyone offer sheeted lindholm or rakell... and both of those guys were much better and much more complete players than karlsson. And we even had a little trouble signing them.

 

[Pennaduck]

Correct but the total amount is based on a 5 year deal even if it's longer than 5 years. So a 6x6 deal would be set at 7.2m per. Regardless of the compensation though is the fact that no one is offersheeting that big of contract on top of giving draft picks for him. Offer sheets are extremely rare to begin with. If there is a contract dispute this summer it will likely go to arbitration and then Vegas will get a short term deal anyways.

Oh right, so the best value to try to get him to sign an offer sheet would be 5.8 x 5 or something comparable. I feel like that's close to what Vegas is going to sign him at anyway so I guess the point is moot.

 

[Pennaduck]

I dont think anyone offer sheeted lindholm or rakell... and both of those guys were much better and much more complete players than karlsson. And we even had a little trouble signing them.

True, offer sheets are extremely rare, as Duck Knight also pointed out above. But if it's a desperate team that views him as a true #1 C, that is perhaps more likely than seeing one for a scoring winger like Rakell. I'm still surprised that Lindholm didn't get one to be honest. Or for all we know if did but wanted to stay in Anaheim.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

True, offer sheets are extremely rare, as Duck Knight also pointed out above. But if it's a desperate team that views him as a true #1 C, that is perhaps more likely than seeing one for a scoring winger like Rakell. I'm still surprised that Lindholm didn't get one to be honest. Or for all we know if did but wanted to stay in Anaheim.

Yea thats a very risky move tho, and ya i was kinda surprised no one offersheeted lindholm or rakell(tho maybe they just didnt sign it)... anaheim was even tight money wise seemed like the perfect time to strike.

 

[HanSolo]

I agree completely with your second part here, but I don't understand the first point. If another team brought him in, why wouldn't they try to replicate his successful season by giving him first line minutes and surrounding him with their best wingers?

Can you think of a single team that is a legitimate threat to make the playoffs year in and year out that would displace their 1c for Karlsson? Hell even non playoff teams...

NYI: Tavares, no
ANA: Getzlaf, no
TBL: Stamkos, no
PIT: Crosby, no
LAK: Kopitar, no
CHI: Toews...doubtful.
WSH: Backstrom, no
PHI: Giroux, no
BOS: Bergeron, no
TOR: Matthews, no
WPG: Schiefele, no
COL: Mackinnon, no
DAL: Seguin, no
CGY: Monahan, no...maybe, but likely not.
EDM: Let's be real here.

VAN: Sedin or Horvat...maybe. But who is the best option for feeding Karlsson pucks here? Boeser, Sedin, or Leipsic? Downgrade for Karlsson as Boeser is a triggerman, Sedin is washed up, and Leipsic couldn't work with Karlsson in Vegas, I don't see why it would work on a worse team.
CBJ: PL Dubois or Foligno? I mean sure but it's pretty hilarious to think the team that gave him up is suddenly gonna run him as a 1c. He could be good with Panarin and Atkinson though
OTT: Duchene, ehhh. Most likely not.
NJD: Hischier, probably not
FLA: Barkov, nnnnope
NYR: Zibanejad, perhaps but unlikely. They don't really have great playmaking wingers anyway.
CAR: J. Staal. I guess, but what's enticing Wild Bill to go there?
MON: Same question. Sure MTL would give him that chance but they're a dumpster fire.
AZ: Stepan, sure, but again. Dumpster fire.
DET: I guess.
BUF: Eichel, no chance. Also dumpster fire
SJS: Couture, Pavelski. Absolutely not
MIN: Koivu, Staal. No chance.

 

[Pennaduck]

Can you think of a single team that is a legitimate threat to make the playoffs year in and year out that would displace their 1c for Karlsson? Hell even non playoff teams...

NYI: Tavares, no
ANA: Getzlaf, no
TBL: Stamkos, no
PIT: Crosby, no
LAK: Kopitar, no
CHI: Toews...doubtful.
WSH: Backstrom, no
PHI: Giroux, no
BOS: Bergeron, no
TOR: Matthews, no
WPG: Schiefele, no
COL: Mackinnon, no
DAL: Seguin, no
CGY: Monahan, no...maybe, but likely not.
EDM: Let's be real here.

VAN: Sedin or Horvat...maybe. But who is the best option for feeding Karlsson pucks here? Boeser, Sedin, or Leipsic? Downgrade for Karlsson as Boeser is a triggerman, Sedin is washed up, and Leipsic couldn't work with Karlsson in Vegas, I don't see why it would work on a worse team.
CBJ: PL Dubois or Foligno? I mean sure but it's pretty hilarious to think the team that gave him up is suddenly gonna run him as a 1c. He could be good with Panarin and Atkinson though
OTT: Duchene, ehhh. Most likely not.
NJD: Hischier, probably not
FLA: Barkov, nnnnope
NYR: Zibanejad, perhaps but unlikely. They don't really have great playmaking wingers anyway.
CAR: J. Staal. I guess, but what's enticing Wild Bill to go there?
MON: Same question. Sure MTL would give him that chance but they're a dumpster fire.
AZ: Stepan, sure, but again. Dumpster fire.
DET: I guess.
BUF: Eichel, no chance. Also dumpster fire
SJS: Couture, Pavelski. Absolutely not
MIN: Koivu, Staal. No chance.

No, as you pointed out in this list there aren't any teams that are current playoff teams that he would supplant their current 1C. But if he goes via offer sheet, its likely going to be a money decision and not a cup contender decision. His best bet is to stay in Vegas. I'm not arguing that point at all. But if Carolina or Montreal or Arizona or a JT-less NYI club offered him an insane deal, he and his agent might sign or at least use it as leverage in their negotiations.

Assuming his level of play is not entirely the result of his linemates and not entirely a fluke, if you put him on Carolina (with a better goalie) or Arizona (with a healthy defense and healthy goalie) those teams are probably playoff teams. Carolina might have been one this season if not for their goaltending and lack of a top center, and arizona might have been one this season if they had healthy Raanta all year and their team was playing at the level theyve been playing at since the all star break or so.

 

[Pennaduck]

changing the subject here...Calgary lost today and is stuck at 80 points with 9 games remaining. Assuming it takes 96 points to sneak into the playoffs, they are basically done. Best they could possibly due is 98 points and that would mean they won all of their remaining games which is incredibly unlikely.

 

[Pennaduck]

Also I know it was said earlier in this thread but deserves repeating that the remaining schedule for the Stars is ridiculous. They are losing to the Jets right now, and of their next nine games, only two are against teams not currently in a playoff spot (including one against us and we very well could leapfrog them and be in one by the time that game is). Also Bishop has left the game vs the Jets tonight after looking like he re-aggravated the injury that he just came back from, so it's possible they won't have him for a few more games also.

So in my opinion, Calgary if basically done and Dallas is done if they lose today and Bishop is out for any extended period of time.

 

[Pennaduck]

Also I know it was said earlier in this thread but deserves repeating that the remaining schedule for the Stars is ridiculous. They are losing to the Jets right now, and of their next nine games, only two are against teams not currently in a playoff spot (including one against us and we very well could leapfrog them and be in one by the time that game is). Also Bishop has left the game vs the Jets tonight after looking like he re-aggravated the injury that he just came back from, so it's possible they won't have him for a few more games also.

So in my opinion, Calgary if basically done and Dallas is done if they lose today and Bishop is out for any extended period of time.

Update: Bishop is slated to be reeavaluated in 2 weeks, so he's likely done for the year. I don't see Dallas being an above .500 club with their schedule and Lehtonen in net.

Im ready to call this a four team race now between us, LA, St Louis, and Colorado for the final 3 spots in the west

 

[Ducks DVM]

I think a case could be made that Chicago would be ok with jettisoning Toews and his 6 year 10.5M contract for EK.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

changing the subject here...Calgary lost today and is stuck at 80 points with 9 games remaining. Assuming it takes 96 points to sneak into the playoffs, they are basically done. Best they could possibly due is 98 points and that would mean they won all of their remaining games which is incredibly unlikely.

We can more or less end their season on Wednesday. Thatd be pretty neat.

 

[bumperkisser]

Update: Bishop is slated to be reeavaluated in 2 weeks, so he's likely done for the year. I don't see Dallas being an above .500 club with their schedule and Lehtonen in net.

Im ready to call this a four team race now between us, LA, St Louis, and Colorado for the final 3 spots in the west

i feel like i'd rather not be in the PO's than be 8th. goign up against nashviklle just to be eliminated by them 4x in a row is seriously depressing

 

[pbgoalie]

i feel like i'd rather not be in the PO's than be 8th. goign up against nashviklle just to be eliminated by them 4x in a row is seriously depressing

But, if we upset them, could you imagine what it would be like on hfboards!!!! Would make the Edmonton series and their fans look humble!!

 

[AngelDuck]

Flames are the ultimate blackhole team. Not good enough to ever be a contender to even win a playoff round, but not bad enough to get a high draft pick.

They are pretenders year in and year out.

 

[Paul4587]

All Vegas needs is a highlight reel of his goals to show how many times he's scored from Marchesseault or Smith drawing all the defensive heat, magically getting him the puck letting him shoot at a wide open net.

There is no denying Karlsson has made incredible strides this year but he is not the one generating chances for his line. He's there to finish on what the Florida boys create. Can he become the kinda guy that scores 30+goals and 60-70 points through mostly his own talent? Yeah. He's got the tools, but he needs the drive. You compare him to someone like Rakell, who does have the habit of falling into less than intense stretches and despite the face level numbers, Rakell is still the better player. This is not hyperbole but I think if you put Rakell with Marchesseault and Smith with the kind of year they've been having and Rakell could easily be pushing 50 goals

Rakell is a 30-35 goal scorer with the second or third best passer in the game on his line, not a chance he’s pushing 50 with inferior players.

 

[Opak]

Good guy Laine scores two goals and sinks the Stars for us, also ties OV for the NHL scoring lead. Thanks, Patrik!

Also, how the hell did Mikko Rantanen get up to 77 points in 71 games? I knew the kid was good, but not THAT good...

I guess when the NHL takes a look at MacKinnon's Hart bid, Nate can point at Rantanen's scoring totals as his "resume"...

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I think a case could be made that Chicago would be ok with jettisoning Toews and his 6 year 10.5M contract for EK.

Well sure, but Melnyk wouldn't be.

 

[HanSolo]

Rakell is a 30-35 goal scorer with the second or third best passer in the game on his line, not a chance he’s pushing 50 with inferior players.

Getzlaf is a better overall passer yes. But he doesn't pass through traffic and find seams the way Marchesseault does. Mostly cause he doesn't try. Not because he doesn't have the capability. Idk. Maybe I was being overzealous but if you watch the goals Marchesseault feeds to Karlsson, I'd think Rakell can finish more of them. I'm just saying if he had been there instead of Wild Bill and had the chemistry Rakell could have better numbers. Or at least the same numbers.

But Rakell is the better player and that's my main point.