OT: Around Hockey and the NHL

[Felonious Python]

Thibaud Chatel actually has a more recent NHLe model from May 2024, and you know what that means: feature creep

edit: 1.1 update

‎Gemini - NHLe Points Calculator HTML Code

Created with Gemini

g.co

I'm up to 500 lines of HTML code. When I get to 60k, my hard drive might crash from overheating.

source:

NHLe numbers Updated for 2024

As you know, we recently tweaked our NHLe recipe to become an era-adjusted and 5 years rolling thing.

thibaudchatel.substack.com

 

[JoVel]

I knew the KHL had gone down in quality recently but I didn't know it was that bad.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Nashville been so ass this year. Had an identity last year and completely went away from it over the offseason, plus everyone regressed. Woof

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[Felonious Python]

This is a big concern of my 2.5% idea, but with NHL and NHLPA oversight, bad actors should hopefully be able to be found relatively quickly. Independent rinks aren't immune to this stuff, either.

 

[Felonious Python]

I forced an AI to completely vibe code a working(?) ECHL KRACH calculator with a PDF reader in Python.

Despite my username, I'm sort of ambivalent towards snakes (although I would generally prefer to avoid) and have never coded anything, much less in Python. No link, as I ran out of credits in Cursor and have to inch forward in figuring out how to package it as a standalone app. I can get it running with Flask, but have to get it running in Waitress or something that is more appropriate for a public release.


https:// i.imgur.com/r3OHSxO.png

KRACH and Pairwise (RPI) actually makes sense. A ton of teams in the ECHL don't even play each other each season. There'd be a case for the AHL as well.

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[Felonious Python]

I spent some time arguing with the new Gemini 2.5 pro model. I still had to do most of the heavy lifting mentally, but here's what the back and forth came up with for the NA hockey ecosystem. The only real pushback I got was on the U18 rule, and the associated 'limiting player freedom' that comes with it.

I'd like for NHL teams to be able to somehow extend the rights of their NCAA players by getting them on some type of pre-contract, but the AI would not budge on that. No money would be exchanged until after they've decided to turn pro, but I've found that LLMs are very deferential towards the NCAA. It's by-laws are innate and eternal.

A player can make some money before college, a lot of money in college, but not have any plans to make money afterward. Makes sense. The spirit of amateurism must not be tarnished.

edit: I realized that Canadians had a leg up on Americans with the draft, so I think just a flat 23 years old or exhaustion of amateur options is the way to go. We can argue about letting that 24-year-old get that extra year, but it's not very often a player that old, still playing college hockey, becomes an actual NHL player.

Recommended Ecosystem: "Education-Gated Pathways & Simplified Rights"

This model balances player well-being, educational attainment, national development goals, league strengths, player choice (post-high school), and provides a clearer NHL rights structure.

1. Foundational Development (Ages ~14-17)

• Leagues: Youth AAA, High School/Prep, Tier II Junior (NAHL, NCDC), Canadian Junior A (BCHL, AJHL, etc.).
• Player Movement: Relatively open, including cross-border options at these levels. Focus on broad skill development.

2. The "Diploma/GED First" Gateway (Transition to CHL/USHL)

• The Rule:A coordinated rule implemented by both the CHL and USHL:
  • Americans cannot join a CHL roster until possessing a US high school diploma or GED.
  • Canadians cannot join a USHL roster until possessing a Canadian high school diploma or equivalent.
• Rationale: Prioritizes secondary education completion and player well-being before entering the highest-intensity junior leagues. Framed as an objective educational standard.
• Effect: Keeps most 16/17-year-olds within their home country's top junior system (CHL for Canadians, USHL/NTDP for Americans), strengthening those pathways and addressing displacement concerns, while still allowing other cross-border options at lower tiers or prep schools.

3. Premier Junior Pathways (Post-Diploma/GED, Ages ~18-20)

• Player Choice Opens: Having met the educational requirement, players have broader choices between top leagues.
• Pathway A: CHL (WHL, OHL, QMJHL): Elite, pro-style, regionalized. Attracts top Canadians, Europeans, and now Americans after high school. Offers NCAA option post-CHL career.
• Pathway B: USHL (+NTDP): Elite, NCAA-focused pathway. Attracts top Americans (pre- & post-diploma), and potentially Canadians after graduation preferring the direct NCAA route.

4. Advanced Development & Pro Matriculation (Ages ~18-24)

• NCAA Division I: Enhanced hub taking players from various paths, often entering with completed secondary education.
• Professional Leagues: NHL/AHL/ECHL/Europe fed by CHL and NCAA graduates.

5. NHL Draft Rights System (Simplified Age 23 / Eligibility Exhausted Model)
(Requires NHL CBA negotiation)

• Core Rule: NHL team holds exclusive rights until August 15th following the player's 23rd birthday, OR August 15th following the season in which the player exhausts their North American amateur eligibility (CHL/USHL/Canadian Jr. A age limits, NCAA graduation), whichever comes first.
• Application:
  • NCAA-Bound Player (Drafted 18/19): Rights typically held until Aug 15 after turning 23 OR completion of NCAA eligibility, whichever comes first.
  • CHL/USHL/Cdn Jr. A Player (Drafted 18/19): Rights typically held until Aug 15 after turning 21 (after final junior season).
  • Player Drafted at 20 from NA Junior: Rights held for 1 year (expire Aug 15 after turning 21).
  • European Player (Drafted any age): Rights held until Aug 15 after turning 23 (simple, accommodates contracts).
• Key Outcome: Players finishing their NA junior eligibility (typically age 20/21) whose rights haven't expired become UFAs if unsigned by Aug 15 after turning 21, even if they subsequently choose NCAA.
• Safeguard: If rights expire, player is UFA; subsequent NCAA enrollment doesn't reinstate rights for the original team. Signing an ELC supersedes.

Why This Ecosystem Works:

• Balances Priorities: Addresses player well-being/education, national development, league strengths, NHL needs (including US growth via strong USHL), and player choice (post-HS).
• Legally Sounder: The "Diploma/GED First" rule uses an objective, pro-educational rationale.
• Simpler Rights: The rights system is clearer and easier to administer than complex hybrids, based primarily on age and eligibility completion.
• Aligns with Reality: Acknowledges CHL age limits, NCAA timelines, the value of education, and the fact that NHL team situations change over time.
• Incentivizes Education: Directly links top junior access to completing secondary school.

I feel like the current overage rules in the CHL and USHL would hold up. Any player determined enough to trigger UFA earlier by playing their overage year in the CHL or USHL wouldn't be governable anyway. It'd be a narrow category. Player good enough to be drafted, but doesn't want his league rights held by the specific team that took him (and they can't or won't trade him), and is willing to forego the development of joining an NCAA team to play another year against 16 and 17-year-olds.

 

[Felonious Python]

You just know Buccigross is waiting for John Mustard to score a goal so he can have the biggest cringe moment of the tournament.