Armchair GM Thread

[GeauxPreds1]

I know Kemell isn't lighting the world on fire at MIL the way we'd all like him to, but I wouldn't mind seeing him get an extended look to start the year. He's exactly the type of player we could use (at least in theory), just get the puck to the net and plays like he actually gives a $hit. Not going to put too much stock in a 2 game cameo but he didn't look out of place and was peppering the net when he came up this year.

Our problem is not giving the young players minutes and allowing them to develop along side veterans. Even if Kemell is up brunette will give him 7-9 minutes playing with grinders.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Where are you guys at with Kemell? I don't hear much chit chat about him making your roster next season over this thread.

I would be shocked if he was in the NHL next season? He’s not putting up good enough numbers to have an offensive role in the NHL. And while he plays with some energy and spark, probably the organization has Weisblatt and L’Heureux ahead of him for any such lesser roles.

I think he just needs to bring us a 30-goal season in the AHL first.

That or he really needs to catch lightning in a bottle if he ever gets called up as an injury replacement at some point next season. That’s going to be really tough to do under Brunette though.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I hate that it's the case, but yeah it does feel like Kemell is trending similar to other prospects we've been excited about. Second full season in NA and from a numbers standpoint, he did not improve. Maybe his overall game got better (idk) but you need offensive prospects to be improving their stats each season if they're going to have a chance to be a serious NHL player. And not only did he not improve his output, but it wasn't particularly great in either season, 40 points in 60 games as an AHL player doesn't suggest a lot of NHL production. Players with a more impressive stat line failed to come through with the Predators.

Actually, looking back, the last forward that the Predators drafted and developed, who made a noticeable impact at the NHL level for the Predators over a decent amount of time is Viktor Arvidsson in 2014. Fiala was that same draft, he looked good for us, but then was shipped out and really blossomed elsewhere. Novak has good numbers, not great, he's not an impact top-6 player even if we liked him and now he's gone too with really just one full season played here.

So Evangelista maybe is that guy if he can cement himself in the top-6. A few other guys that it's too early to say. But while I used to defend Poile when people said he couldn't draft forwards (Legwand, Erat, Hartnell, Radulov), even those days appear to be long gone, it's just easy to see how poorly we've drafted and developed, which led us to where we are now. I'd blame it on "going for it" after the Cup run, but we honestly only had one season without a 1st round pick

 

[wmupreds]

I hate that it's the case, but yeah it does feel like Kemell is trending similar to other prospects we've been excited about. Second full season in NA and from a numbers standpoint, he did not improve. Maybe his overall game got better (idk) but you need offensive prospects to be improving their stats each season if they're going to have a chance to be a serious NHL player. And not only did he not improve his output, but it wasn't particularly great in either season, 40 points in 60 games as an AHL player doesn't suggest a lot of NHL production. Players with a more impressive stat line failed to come through with the Predators.

Actually, looking back, the last forward that the Predators drafted and developed, who made a noticeable impact at the NHL level for the Predators over a decent amount of time is Viktor Arvidsson in 2014. Fiala was that same draft, he looked good for us, but then was shipped out and really blossomed elsewhere. Novak has good numbers, not great, he's not an impact top-6 player even if we liked him and now he's gone too with really just one full season played here.

So Evangelista maybe is that guy if he can cement himself in the top-6. A few other guys that it's too early to say. But while I used to defend Poile when people said he couldn't draft forwards (Legwand, Erat, Hartnell, Radulov), even those days appear to be long gone, it's just easy to see how poorly we've drafted and developed, which led us to where we are now. I'd blame it on "going for it" after the Cup run, but we honestly only had one season without a 1st round pick

I won't disagree that Kemell's trajectory is a little concerning. But he came over super young and just turned 21 a month ago, so I won't really be overly worried unless he fails to take a major step this next year.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

It's odd that we complain around here about management not giving prospects a chance and people have basically written off Kemell already.

 

[Legionnaire11]

It's odd that we complain around here about management not giving prospects a chance and people have basically written off Kemell already.

I'm not writing him off, but there are concerns there that suggest he's not going to be who we hoped he could be. He can still easily be an NHL player and contribute, but probably not as a high impact player. If you look at "star" players in the NHL go through their AHL stats and it's very rare that they spend even a full season in the AHL, and then stick in the NHL on their first or second callup. Players who take longer can become really solid players, but not one that you'd consider a star.

For reference, I looked through the top 100 scoring wingers in the NHL over the past 3 seasons. They spent an average of 54 games in the AHL, while Kemell is at 146 and counting.

Of those 100 there were only 6 that have played more AHL games than Kemell:
Jonathan Marchessault - career high of 76 points in the NHL
Michael Bunting - 63
Trevor Moore - 57
Nick Paul - 46
Stefan Noesen - 41
Jordan Martinook - 36

So just looking at it from a statistical standpoint, Kemell is not trending to become a top-6 NHL winger and he'd have to be in the top 3% of players who did so to even have a 50 point season. I'm not blaming the Predators development for this, it's just an unfortunate situation where we took a swing on a guy who was injured and falling down the draft board, had some hope that he would be a solid goal scorer for us and so far hasn't shown that he will pan out as a top player at his position. Fingers crossed that he bucks the trend and blossoms for us soon.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It's odd that we complain around here about management not giving prospects a chance and people have basically written off Kemell already.

I really do not think anybody around here has "written off" Kemell? There's a huge difference between being "mildly concerned" about his lack of offensive progression in the AHL and "writing him off".

It's definitely conversation-worthy to consider what NHL upside he has, given his demonstrated production in 2 years in the AHL and his trajectory to play a 3rd year in the AHL. While at the same time acknowledging he started young and still has time to blossom.

Our management hasn't even had a chance to get in his way yet.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

I'm not writing him off, but there are concerns there that suggest he's not going to be who we hoped he could be. He can still easily be an NHL player and contribute, but probably not as a high impact player. If you look at "star" players in the NHL go through their AHL stats and it's very rare that they spend even a full season in the AHL, and then stick in the NHL on their first or second callup. Players who take longer can become really solid players, but not one that you'd consider a star.

For reference, I looked through the top 100 scoring wingers in the NHL over the past 3 seasons. They spent an average of 54 games in the AHL, while Kemell is at 146 and counting.

Of those 100 there were only 6 that have played more AHL games than Kemell:
Jonathan Marchessault - career high of 76 points in the NHL
Michael Bunting - 63
Trevor Moore - 57
Nick Paul - 46
Stefan Noesen - 41
Jordan Martinook - 36

So just looking at it from a statistical standpoint, Kemell is not trending to become a top-6 NHL winger and he'd have to be in the top 3% of players who did so to even have a 50 point season. I'm not blaming the Predators development for this, it's just an unfortunate situation where we took a swing on a guy who was injured and falling down the draft board, had some hope that he would be a solid goal scorer for us and so far hasn't shown that he will pan out as a top player at his position. Fingers crossed that he bucks the trend and blossoms for us soon.

I really do not think anybody around here has "written off" Kemell? There's a huge difference between being "mildly concerned" about his lack of offensive progression in the AHL and "writing him off".

It's definitely conversation-worthy to consider what NHL upside he has, given his demonstrated production in 2 years in the AHL and his trajectory to play a 3rd year in the AHL. While at the same time acknowledging he started young and still has time to blossom.

Our management hasn't even had a chance to get in his way yet.

Both of these responses are reasonable and what I expected. My point is Kemell may need to start next season in the A but it's time to bring him up and see what he can do.

I'm all for letting prospects develop in the A and earn their icetime in the N when they come up, if, you're a winning club. This is no longer a winning club and needs to be treated like a developmental team at the NHL level until they can figure out how to be a competitive NHL team.

 

[predhead1]

Even if Kemell doesn't pan out to be a top-6 forward, would it necessarily be a bad thing to have a bottom-6 forward with a little bit of offensive skill instead of rolling out the same grinders you can pick up off the waiver wire at any time?

 

[BigFatCat999]

So there’s a lot of noise Montreal wants Marchy what would you ask for if they said they want him at 50%?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

So there’s a lot of noise Montreal wants Marchy what would you ask for if they said they want him at 50%?

I would need Hage or Reinbacher if we retained that much. Straight up, someone like Beck or Kapanen if we don’t retain.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

So there’s a lot of noise Montreal wants Marchy what would you ask for if they said they want him at 50%?

Marchessault at 50% should be worth their #16/17 draft pick. He's a good player on a good contract already. If you want him, you pay.

I don't know their prospects well enough, but if any of their guys have value corresponding to those 1sts, ok, I'm listening. But surely they aren't dumb enough to trade a 1st for Marchy? You still have to set that bar, though, from our perspective.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Here are some moves I;d make if we aint blowing it up

(this also assumes Josi is Cooked and on Long Term IR, which for he and his family's sake I hope is the case)


To MTL: Marchassault (Max Retention), Saros (50% retained) Luke Evangelista,
To Nash: David Reinbacher , Owen Beck , Dobes (signed for $1.5M AAV)

Sign Marner ($15M aav)

To MN: Colton Sissons, Jeremy Lauzon , 23rd Overall Pick
To nash: Marco Rossi (rights)

Rossi signed for 10 years x $7M

Doing the "Back of the napkin" math, we should have enough cap space to do all of this and sign our remaining RFAs

Forsberg-Rossi-Marner
Stamkos-Svechkov-L'Hereux
Bunting-ROR-Matthew wood
Mccaron-Beck-Smith

Skjei-Barron
Wilsby-Blankenburg
Stastny-Del Gaizo