Armchair GM Thread

[Bye Bye Blueston]

We're not going to have a fairy godmother come down from on high and get us out of the Saros contract. Nobody values him as highly as Trotz.

To get rid of him and his contract will be a negative value trade. They get Saros, only 50% of his contract, a bunch of draft picks, and probably a couple of prospects if we have any remotely interesting. We get back a chance to bottom out hard and try to rebuild on a 10 year plan.

This is silly. Saros wasn’t great this year, but he wouldn’t be hard to deal. Might not get much value, but we wouldn’t need to do anything like that.

 

[Kat Predator]

This is silly. Saros wasn’t great this year, but he wouldn’t be hard to deal. Might not get much value, but we wouldn’t need to do anything like that.

What sort of value do you give to a small goalie on the wrong side of 30, diminishing numbers, and with a $7.74M for 8 years contract? Name the GM out there that'll help Trotz out and give him a good return. Keep in mind that Trotz has already pulled the trigger on trades that many around the NHL consider laughable.

 

[Kat Predator]

What sort of value do you give to a small goalie on the wrong side of 30, diminishing numbers, and with a $7.74M for 8 years contract? Name the GM out there that'll help Trotz out and give him a good return. Keep in mind that Trotz has already pulled the trigger on trades that many around the NHL consider laughable.

Let me add a different take on the argument.

I'll be some other NHL GM and you can be Barry. You call me and start talking about Saros and asking me questions about my goaltending situation.

OK, cool. I'm not a moron. I know how you love Saros. I know the contract details. I know Saros hasn't even played 1 second of 1 game under that contract. I'm leaning back in my swivel chair with a huge smile on my face thinking, you sound sort of desperate. The fact you're calling absolutely reeks of desperation. And this is a contract that you negotiated and you signed. You put yourself in this position and your panic is oozing out of the phone. Basically, I'm going to lift you up by your ankles and shake you to see what falls out of your pockets. You're in a bad negotiating position and probably don't know it. Sure, I'll do you a favor. I got a couple of replacement level veterans on mid-level contracts that you could use since your team can't score and can't defend. I'll take Saros and some of your draft picks and maybe I like ZLH. I'll throw in a pick in a draft 4 years down the road. But hey, you're out from under your own contract.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

That is an honest picture of how that call would go, and it’s exactly why the Saros contract is such a problem. It’s not just the dollar amount or the term. We have already lost leverage the moment we decided to move on from Askarov. Every GM knows Saros is Plan A, B, and C now, which means Trotz isn’t negotiating. He is admitting he f***ed up.

Saros hasn’t played a second on that deal yet, which works against us. Teams don’t want to take on risk before they see if there is a bounce back. It is hard to discern who sucks on a team as ass and old as this one.

That’s the frustrating part that pisses me off so much. The Saros deal didn’t have to happen like this, but instead of leaning into a patient build with a blue-chip prospect in net and cap flexibility, Trotz bought into the idea that we were closer than we are. Now we’re staring down an aging roster with NMCs with a midget for a goalie.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Man I hope trotz is watching this Dallas and Edmonton game. Because any hockey personal or fan can see that nashville is no where close to competing with these guys. This team needs to be tore the F down. Tell everyone that has a ntc your plan to rebuild and see if they will waive to a contender. You have 2 retention slots so that can help you get max value. Forsberg will get a really nice return, josi could bring back something good. Oreilly as well. Stammer and marchessault with retention could bring something nice as well. Trotz has to watch this series and realize this team is cooked

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

This all feels backwards to me. It’s not that we would be looking to unload Saros, as we don’t have another option. If he is traded it’s bc team like Edmonton or Carolina decides they can’t win Cup with their current guy or team like Philly or Columbus decides they need better g to make playoffs. We would take back their crappy goalie and get pick and/or prospect.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

This all feels backwards to me. It’s not that we would be looking to unload Saros, as we don’t have another option. If he is traded it’s bc team like Edmonton or Carolina decides they can’t win Cup with their current guy or team like Philly or Columbus decides they need better g to make playoffs. We wouldn’t take back their crappy goalie and get pick and/or prospect.

You have to come to the realization that even if Saros is good, he is only hurting draft position. We are far away from contending.

Goalies are not starting pitchers in the MLB.

Skinner was drafted 78th overall and had a .896 SV pct. McJesus is the only reason EDM is EDM.
Oettinger was 26th overall and had a .909 SV pct. Dallas is one of the deepest rosters in the league.
Bobrovsky was undrafted and on his 3rd NHL team. Quite the story and a .906 SV pct.
Andersen was drafted 87th overall by the Ducks and is on his 3rd NHL team. .899 SV pct.

Anyone willing to say anything less than the Saros contract was a fireable offense should be considered for the block list. It is not a serious opinion. It was an unforced error. There is zero upside to keeping Saros with the construct and age of this roster.

*Saros SV pct. the past 3 seasons are .919, .906, and .895 respectively

 

[glenngineer]

I tried to understand the moves Trotz made when they happened. I understand why he signed Saros because of all the other moves he was making.

At the end of the day, he made one huge blunder that is a fireable offense, having an expectation that a core group of players in your top 6 that are on the wrong side of their 30’s could drive this team to the playoffs and possibly a Cup.

There isn’t one Cup team I can think of that had the majority of their top 6 in their 30’s that won a Cup. Teams have had guys in their 30’s that provided depth and were supplemental pieces but they weren’t the ones driving the bus.

How Trotz didn’t understand this is beyond me. If he had kept the kids he moved on from and let them play and really see what he had, we’d be in a much better position than we are today. We’ve lost a ton of depth, have an aging roster and not much to look forward to.

Trotz and Brunette have made way too many mistakes to still have a job at this point. At the very least, Brunette should have been let go. The fact that Trotz doubled down is even more ludicrous than all the moves he’s made.

It’s honestly laughable.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Im two pages behind but if Marner knows either Stamkos or Marchy and asks them about coming here I suspect we would have zero chance of signing him, even if we wanted him

I cant see any top tier UFA wanting to play here as long as Bruno is the coach.

Well, anybody who is older and looking for top dollar with minimum tax and a long off-season of golfing might want to come here... ?

 

[PredsV82]

Well, anybody who is older and looking for top dollar with minimum tax and a long off-season of golfing might want to come here... ?

And thus not meet the definition of "top-tier UFA"

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is silly. Saros wasn’t great this year, but he wouldn’t be hard to deal. Might not get much value, but we wouldn’t need to do anything like that.

I agree. But... the window is closing fast on that. Coming off back-to-back "meh" seasons, and with that contract looming, his value is definitely at an all-time low. Yet I still dare to dream that the right team with the right level of desperation could take him at... well at least at zero value? Not quite negative?

"The right team" is basically just Edmonton at this point, though. Lose because of their goaltending this year, and maybe the looming specter of McDavid hitting UFA would cause them to reach out and do a trade like Skinner-for-Saros, as one last ditch attempt?

Problem is, that MIGHT work for Edmonton. But it's not going to work for Trotz. So let's face it, we're screwed.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

And thus not meet the definition of "top-tier UFA"

The "top tier" is who this year? Just Marner? Or does it include Tavares or other guys like that? In a slim UFA market, even the "top tier" can meet that definition. Alas.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I tried to understand the moves Trotz made when they happened. I understand why he signed Saros because of all the other moves he was making.

At the end of the day, he made one huge blunder that is a fireable offense, having an expectation that a core group of players in your top 6 that are on the wrong side of their 30’s could drive this team to the playoffs and possibly a Cup.

There isn’t one Cup team I can think of that had the majority of their top 6 in their 30’s that won a Cup. Teams have had guys in their 30’s that provided depth and were supplemental pieces but they weren’t the ones driving the bus.

How Trotz didn’t understand this is beyond me. If he had kept the kids he moved on from and let them play and really see what he had, we’d be in a much better position than we are today. We’ve lost a ton of depth, have an aging roster and not much to look forward to.

Trotz and Brunette have made way too many mistakes to still have a job at this point. At the very least, Brunette should have been let go. The fact that Trotz doubled down is even more ludicrous than all the moves he’s made.

It’s honestly laughable.

Doubling down on Brunette... or not mandating a change of course to him... that sort of thing could be considered a fireable offense as well?

I also think the Saros contract was that bad. It was just such an unforced error. We had ample wiggle room to not offer Saros that contract. He had trade market value last summer which he doesn't have now. And if the slide in his level of play can't be reversed, we're going to be locked into a horror show for 8 more years. Biggest gaffe of all of Barry's contract decisions IMO.

 

[Armourboy]

The Saros signing was bad because it didn't need to be made at the time. You still had another season and a player that wanted to be here. You had the trade deadline if nothing else but to crunch him on term. The dollars was never the issue, it's just his term should have never been over 4 years. If he doesn't take it you get a stop gap and move on.

Trotz thought he had the summer of a lifetime when really what it turned out to be is a noose on the franchise.

I think you could move Saros. It might take 1-2 million in retention and a bad contract coming back but it's possible. Trotz would expect a solid return so it would never happen.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I didn't like the re-signing, and still think he should have been traded, but I would not be shocked to see Saros' stats go up next season. His down seasons are the Brunette seasons, and yes he will have that again next year so who really knows. I just don't think he's totally cooked, but I also don't think his contract is in line with where this roster is and where it's heading.

 

[Scoresberg]

FWIW, Saros has been MVP-level for Finland in the WC. Carrying his team.

 

[Kat Predator]

I agree. But... the window is closing fast on that. Coming off back-to-back "meh" seasons, and with that contract looming, his value is definitely at an all-time low. Yet I still dare to dream that the right team with the right level of desperation could take him at... well at least at zero value? Not quite negative?

"The right team" is basically just Edmonton at this point, though. Lose because of their goaltending this year, and maybe the looming specter of McDavid hitting UFA would cause them to reach out and do a trade like Skinner-for-Saros, as one last ditch attempt?

Problem is, that MIGHT work for Edmonton. But it's not going to work for Trotz. So let's face it, we're screwed.

The Oilers were 1 win away from a Cup last year and are 8 wins away this year. They are doing this with discount meh goaltending, although one could argue that Pickard and Skinner have had some pretty solid showings in this playoffs. I just don't see Bowman coming hat in hand and begging Trotz or having enough assets to meet Trotz where he is. Trotz has said he goes into trades considering how valuable the player is to him, and you have to think Saros is one at the top of his list. A franchise star and key player. Bowman isn't desperate enough to offer a star player in return, and I doubt he's dumb enough to misread the situation and think he's the one over the barrel with the Saros contract situation as it is. The Oilers are already spending their cap and would be wise to use any new space to keep their stars (Draisaitl's new contract is pre-spent cap) and improve the overall depth of that roster as a fair amount of it is older guys (really most of their forwards), etc.

Last thing: I just don't see Trotz wanting to trade Saros. We may look at a contract that pays him $7.74M to play goalie to age 38 and scratch our heads, but there is no indication at all Trotz sees it that way. It's a different colored bike shed, but the same thinking as he has with Bruno. We can see Bruno is failing, but Barry is going to go down with that ship and wakes up every morning thinking Bruno is a great coach who just needs more puck luck.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The Oilers are already spending their cap and would be wise to use any new space to keep their stars (Draisaitl's new contract is pre-spent cap) and improve the overall depth of that roster as a fair amount of it is older guys (really most of their forwards), etc.

I think the main question is that of depth vs. goaltending. One could argue either direction, both areas could stand to be improved, but again despite both weaknesses the Oilers have been "close" to a championship as it is. Which one of those areas pushes them over the top? Hard to say for sure, I guess we could ask McDavid and see what he says?

Last thing: I just don't see Trotz wanting to trade Saros. We may look at a contract that pays him $7.74M to play goalie at age 38 and scratch our heads, but there is no indication at all Trotz sees it that way. It's a different colored bike shed, but the same thinking as he has with Bruno. We can see Bruno is failing, but Barry is going to go down with that ship and wakes up every morning thinking Bruno is a great coach who just needs more puck luck.

Oh absolutely. Trotz doesn't want to trade Saros at all, let alone as basically a contract dump with bad players coming back. So it's a moot point really whether Edmonton would be interested or not. Alas for us.

 

[Kat Predator]

I think the main question is that of depth vs. goaltending. One could argue either direction, both areas could stand to be improved, but again despite both weaknesses the Oilers have been "close" to a championship as it is. Which one of those areas pushes them over the top? Hard to say for sure, I guess we could ask McDavid and see what he says?


Oh absolutely. Trotz doesn't want to trade Saros at all, let alone as basically a contract dump with bad players coming back. So it's a moot point really whether Edmonton would be interested or not. Alas for us.

I just think Bowman knows he can spend a little more on goaltending and improve that area (on paper) without going all in and paying "next to superstar" money. Which would be the smarter choice given that recent results show a team can win a Cup with a competent goalie on a hot streak just as well as a superstar goalie. Pickard was getting pretty hot before his leg got bent up and wet noodley.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

FWIW, Saros has been MVP-level for Finland in the WC. Carrying his team.

It's a pretty dire looking Finland lineup, that's for sure. But 1.19 GAA and .959 SvPct is pretty good, for sure. All the more reason for Trotz to keep him, I guess. :/

He let O'Reilly have a goal, but then beat Canada 2-1 in a shootout. Tolvanen had a 4 goal game earlier.

I wonder what's wrong with Filip Forsberg? Given how weak some of the lesser teams are in this tournament, the better NHLer players are generally piling up huge stats. But Forsberg hasn't scored at all.

 

[glenngineer]

Doubling down on Brunette... or not mandating a change of course to him... that sort of thing could be considered a fireable offense as well?

I also think the Saros contract was that bad. It was just such an unforced error. We had ample wiggle room to not offer Saros that contract. He had trade market value last summer which he doesn't have now. And if the slide in his level of play can't be reversed, we're going to be locked into a horror show for 8 more years. Biggest gaffe of all of Barry's contract decisions IMO.

I'd say a good portion of his decisions are fireable.

How can a fan base see that 18-game point streak as an outlier and not a trained professional?

How can a fan base see the Saros contract as an albatross and not a trained professional?

How can a fan base see that the coach's system doesn't work and not a trained professional?

Cutting Fabbro loose for nothing should have gotten both of them canned.

I can go on and on but I think this enough of a start.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

FWIW, Saros has been MVP-level for Finland in the WC. Carrying his team.

He can carry us to WC2, bounced in the first round in 5 games, and the 21st overall pick.

 

[Softball99]

I'd trade later 1st for his rights, that's for sure.

TBs 1st and Sissons for Rossi?

 

[jumb0]

TBs 1st and Sissons for Rossi?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

TBs 1st and Sissons for Rossi?

Sure but… I suspect Trotz wouldn’t. He just flat out won’t want Rossi. Young, small, not a cereal winner, and looking to get a big rai$e? Nope, not on Trotz’s wish list.

He’d be more likely to trade for a guy like Marchment.