Armchair GM Thread

[Porter Stoutheart]

That's not quite what I meant. What I meant was Marner is a money-driven player and will look to maximize his earnings on his next deal. Tennessee is a state with no-state income tax so that automatically makes it appealing for Marner. Especially when you compare the earnings for a 7-year-period.

Also, I keep coming back to the fact that ROR tried to talk Trotz into trading for Marner when he was reportedly available. Trotz apparently tried to acquire him but couldn't come into agreement on the price. I don't think they've forgotten Marner completely, and all the talk of "trying to be competitive next year" makes me believe they'll try to sign him over the summer.

And I'm saying, I doubt he maximizes his earnings here. There is a slight tax advantage, yes, but the Leafs will give him more money per year than we would, and over 8 years instead of 7, and he'd probably have many times larger endorsements income there. So if he's money-driven, he will stay in Toronto. That's where he will make the most money.

But if he wants to factor in other considerations than pure $$$, such as less annoying media, or perceives a better chance of winning elsewhere, he could sacrifice some of that to go elsewhere... Florida, Vegas, and Seattle could fit him in among other teams with no state tax. (Yes, even Vegas with just $10.5M space atm - I'm sure they could find a way given their track record!) I don't know why he'd come to Seattle or us if he's in that position, however. There are plenty of contending teams, or teams with better supporting talent that he could get as much money from as us. There is allure in playing in big markets like Chicago or New York or Boston or LA. The state income tax is just one component of his potential earnings, it represents a few percentage points on his overall salary. Which historically for us has been enough of an attraction as long as we were at least a competitive team. Now as a basement-dwelling team, I doubt that slim advantage will hold much weight.

And all of that is quite fine with me... Marner is a very good player, but I come back to pointing out that he's not really much better than a Forsberg-level guy. If you're going to pay that player $12-15M for the next 7 years, I think it's a very questionable contract. He's not a savior on his own. We have weakness in so many areas that I don't think it makes sense to pile that much money on one mid-level star forward instead of spreading it out across 3 or 4 solid players in other areas.

 

[herzausstein]

I don't see why a younger player like Marner would want to come here looking at the core being as old as it is. Unless we get a top 3 pick and draft a high end C.... even then this team is closer to rebuild than the cup

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't see why a younger player like Marner would want to come here looking at the core being as old as it is. Unless we get a top 3 pick and draft a high end C.... even then this team is closer to rebuild than the cup

It comes back to what I said somewhere else... do you even WANT a big name guy who would come here at this point? Looking at the mess we're in, you'd only come here if you were content to chillax in the country club before retiring, right? Catch-22 for us. This is what comes with sucking.

 

[Scoresberg]

And I'm saying, I doubt he maximizes his earnings here. There is a slight tax advantage, yes, but the Leafs will give him more money per year than we would, and over 8 years instead of 7, and he'd probably have many times larger endorsements income there. So if he's money-driven, he will stay in Toronto. That's where he will make the most money.

But if he wants to factor in other considerations than pure $$$, such as less annoying media, or perceives a better chance of winning elsewhere, he could sacrifice some of that to go elsewhere... Florida, Vegas, and Seattle could fit him in among other teams with no state tax. (Yes, even Vegas with just $10.5M space atm - I'm sure they could find a way given their track record!) I don't know why he'd come to Seattle or us if he's in that position, however. There are plenty of contending teams, or teams with better supporting talent that he could get as much money from as us. There is allure in playing in big markets like Chicago or New York or Boston or LA. The state income tax is just one component of his potential earnings, it represents a few percentage points on his overall salary. Which historically for us has been enough of an attraction as long as we were at least a competitive team. Now as a basement-dwelling team, I doubt that slim advantage will hold much weight.

And all of that is quite fine with me... Marner is a very good player, but I come back to pointing out that he's not really much better than a Forsberg-level guy. If you're going to pay that player $12-15M for the next 7 years, I think it's a very questionable contract. He's not a savior on his own. We have weakness in so many areas that I don't think it makes sense to pile that much money on one mid-level star forward instead of spreading it out across 3 or 4 solid players in other areas.

Let's say he gets the Rantanen deal in TOR, so 96 mil over those years. According to PuckPedia's calculator, his net earnings over those eight years would be 44.9 million.

Let's say he gets 14x7 from Nashville. 98 million. Again, according to PuckPedia's calculator he's going to net over 62 million from those years.

That's almost a 20 million dollar difference.

Yeah, there might be some cities where it's closer but let's not act it doesn't matter to those guys. Even Rantanen said, there were only four teams he would sign for and three of those (Dallas, Florida, Vegas) were no-state income tax states.

 

[herzausstein]

Let's say he gets the Rantanen deal in TOR, so 96 mil over those years. According to PuckPedia's calculator, his net earnings over those eight years would be 44.9 million.

Let's say he gets 14x7 from Nashville. 98 million. Again, according to PuckPedia's calculator he's going to net over 62 million from those years.

That's almost a 20 million dollar difference.

Yeah, there might be some cities where it's closer but let's not act it doesn't matter to those guys. Even Rantanen said, there were only four teams he would sign for and three of those (Dallas, Florida, Vegas) were no-state income tax states.

I don't see why anyone with cup aspirations would sign here.

 

[Scoresberg]

I don't see why anyone with cup aspirations would sign here.

Teams that have experience with winning won't bring in Marner to mess up the group dynamic. Could you imagine Florida where Barkov and Tkachuk make less than Marner? Or Vegas with Eichel and Stone?

Now, of course, there are some teams that are CLOSER to the Cup than us. For example, I could see him going to Utah, that's a fairly low-tax state as well. Chicago, yeah, I guess but they're a ways away as well.

The most realistic scenario probably still is that he re-signs in Toronto, but considering it hasn't happened yet, I'd find it a bit odd if they would run it back especially if they go out early this season as well.

 

[herzausstein]

Teams that have experience with winning won't bring in Marner to mess up the group dynamic. Could you imagine Florida where Barkov and Tkachuk make less than Marner? Or Vegas with Eichel and Stone?

Now, of course, there are some teams that are CLOSER to the Cup than us. For example, I could see him going to Utah, that's a fairly low-tax state as well. Chicago, yeah, I guess but they're a ways away as well.

The most realistic scenario probably still is that he re-signs in Toronto, but considering it hasn't happened yet, I'd find it a bit odd if they would run it back especially if they go out early this season as well.

I mean Dallas did just send out Stankoven plus for Rantanen and give him a big extension. I don't think it is out of question that a well established team with much better cup odds than ours would pay him especially as a free pickup in UFA.

Even then, Marner should look at this team and easily realize that our 1C RoR was their 3C and they still didn't make it out of the 1st round. Our defense is as big of a mess as theirs too.

 

[Scoresberg]

I mean Dallas did just send out Stankoven plus for Rantanen and give him a big extension. I don't think it is out of question that a well established team with much better cup odds than ours would pay him especially as a free pickup in UFA.

Even then, Marner should look at this team and easily realize that our 1C RoR was their 3C and they still didn't make it out of the 1st round. Our defense is as big of a mess as theirs too.

You're right, although I look at Dallas a bit differently from Florida and Vegas. I don't think they had a "top-dog" on their team unlike Vegas and Florida who still have Eichel and Barkov, respectively.

I don't know, to me Marner's situation just reminds me of when Johnny Hockey went to Columbus as a FA. Both are a bit similar, smaller skill guys who just aren't THAT interested in winning as much as they're interested in chasing top-dollar.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Let's say he gets the Rantanen deal in TOR, so 96 mil over those years. According to PuckPedia's calculator, his net earnings over those eight years would be 44.9 million.

Let's say he gets 14x7 from Nashville. 98 million. Again, according to PuckPedia's calculator he's going to net over 62 million from those years.

That's almost a 20 million dollar difference.

Yeah, there might be some cities where it's closer but let's not act it doesn't matter to those guys. Even Rantanen said, there were only four teams he would sign for and three of those (Dallas, Florida, Vegas) were no-state income tax states.

The PuckPedia calculator is very wrong, though. It really just seems to apply flat tax rates. Whereas it has been well established by now that NHL players have lots of other ways of tweaking the tax situation. Marner really only needs to pay local tax rates for the 41 home game days. He can maintain residence wherever he wants, and has to pay road game taxes wherever those games are located. So he can play in a higher tax bracket state and still maintain a much lower overall tax rate than that calculator shows.

Plus he is right now the actual #1 NHL endorsement player in the entire league... as surprising as that might seem, but I think he has a pretty active accountant/agent that some other players might not... which probably has some fees associated with it as well... nevertheless, he's reportedly pulling in around $3M extra in endorsements per year, which is largely part of being a keystone in the Toronto market, and I doubt he can pull anything like that in as a 70-80 pt unknown in Nashville.

The real tax difference is probably 10% or less if he's working it actively, which I get the impression his group will be. So the extra year alone already more than offsets that. And then the endorsements, competitive advantage, etc will make us a non-starter for him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeah, there might be some cities where it's closer but let's not act it doesn't matter to those guys. Even Rantanen said, there were only four teams he would sign for and three of those (Dallas, Florida, Vegas) were no-state income tax states.

I mean, I guess let's not forget that Florida and Vegas are the last two Stanley Cup champs, and Dallas is a top contender this year. You can put that down to a slim tax advantage if you want, but the Contender correlation certainly seems to stand out as well.

Who was the 4th team?

 

[herzausstein]

You're right, although I look at Dallas a bit differently from Florida and Vegas. I don't think they had a "top-dog" on their team unlike Vegas and Florida who still have Eichel and Barkov, respectively.

I don't know, to me Marner's situation just reminds me of when Johnny Hockey went to Columbus as a FA. Both are a bit similar, smaller skill guys who just aren't THAT interested in winning as much as they're interested in chasing top-dollar.

Feel like CBJ and Nashville would be at two very different points at the time of signing. Johnny signed at a time when CBJ was beginning to try to come out of the gutter. Some high first round picks in hand, Johnson, sillinger, jiricek.... some up and good young talent in Werenski, Laine and some up and comers like chinakhov... all surrounded by some stable vets.

Meanwhile, we are a bunch of stable vets, with a couple mid round 1st that won't get much of a shot under current coaching.

Just seems like two franchises going in very different directions. Blue jackets looked like they'd be on the upward trend in the coming seasons. I cannot say the same for Nashville where all the top 6 contributors are over 30 with half over 35 next season and very little younger talent breaking into the nhl

 

[Scoresberg]

We can talk about this subject until the cows come home, but this is my stand - I believe there's a good chance Marner will be a Pred come July 1st. There's more reasons to it than just money, although that's the biggest deal in all of that. I've explained all the other reasons as well on this thread.

Marner can come here, get his 14 million dollars a year and play however the hell he wants because there's absolutely zero media pressure here. That's why the retirement guys like Stammer want to come here. Why in God's name they would go to for example Toronto where your every move is scrutinized?

Also, I believe that more people around the league than just Trotz truly believe that this is a one-off season for us.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Feel like CBJ and Nashville would be at two very different points at the time of signing. Johnny signed at a time when CBJ was beginning to try to come out of the gutter. Some high first round picks in hand, Johnson, sillinger, jiricek.... some up and good young talent in Werenski, Laine and some up and comers like chinakhov... all surrounded by some stable vets.

Meanwhile, we are a bunch of stable vets, with a couple mid round 1st that won't get much of a shot under current coaching.

Just seems like two franchises going in very different directions. Blue jackets looked like they'd be on the upward trend in the coming seasons. I cannot say the same for Nashville where all the top 6 contributors are over 30 with half over 35 next season and very little younger talent breaking into the nhl

Gaudreau seemed to really want to be close to home/family also, which made Philly/NJ seem like candidates? But Columbus ended up being a little better overall while still not too far off geographically?

Anyway, obviously we can't look at any considerations like that either for Marner. I think we have to just write off the whole Marner scenario. Past that, it's probably not going to be big-name UFAs who are going to be our salvation now. Draisatl re-signed in Edmonton, we aren't going to be competitive enough to leverage any McDavid opportunity should that arise. There is no savior sailing in via free agency for us.

I think we just need to make a few "savvy" UFA signings at this point to shore up our roster. A couple forwards, a couple RD especially. They don't have to be "saviors", just good solid players on non-killer contracts. The rest of our work really needs to be focused on drafting/development/graduation of our prospects. That's the only thing that can save us now. (And I'm not at all confident we can do that, alas )

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

We can talk about this subject until the cows come home, but this is my stand - I believe there's a good chance Marner will be a Pred come July 1st. There's more reasons to it than just money, although that's the biggest deal in all of that. I've explained all the other reasons as well on this thread.

Marner can come here, get his 14 million dollars a year and play however the hell he wants because there's absolutely zero media pressure here. That's why the retirement guys like Stammer want to come here. Why in God's name they would go to for example Toronto where your every move is scrutinized?

Also, I believe that more people around the league than just Trotz truly believe that this is a one-off season for us.

So you are onboard with offering Marner 7x$14M, right?

Ooookay. I still don't think he would take even that, but man, that would be a huge mistake for us to even offer that contract to a player like him.

 

[Armourboy]

Keep in mind when you are talking about the money part of it, while the contract may be 13 X 7, he's not actually going to get paid like that. The bulk of that contract will be paid in bonuses, which is where the true advantage of the no tax state comes in.

Marner might get 98 million, but 90 million or so will all be in bonuses. That's how these guys work the system and get around most of the high out of state taxes if maximizing dollars is what they are after.

I could definitely see a guy like Marner in Nashville. For alot of these guys setting themselves and their families up for a long time is what they are after, the winning is secondary.

 

[Scoresberg]

So you are onboard with offering Marner 7x$14M, right?

Ooookay. I still don't think he would take even that, but man, that would be a huge mistake for us to even offer that contract to a player like him.

I'm not necessarily saying I would want to see us giving him that. I'm just pointing out how I think it's a realistic scenario.

 

[ShagDaddy]

What’s one more big contract for a dysfunctional organization that has no direction? Bring it on! They’ll be in the McKenna sweepstakes next year.

 

[herzausstein]

Marner would definitely make us better. I don't think it makes us anywhere near a contender and probably waste the Last years of his prime unless we get a Misa or Hagens in the draft and they step into the NHL sprinting. The rest of our top players are either past their prime or in the last years of their prime. Even with a Misa/Hagens and marner, we would need a legit top pairing RHD. Maybe Trotz can work alot of magic but so far I'm expecting next season to be a top 5-10 overall worthy performance

 

[Marty Party]

Trotzy hangs out with Korn at the 300 level concourse during intermission's if you want to say, "Hi".

 

[wmupreds]

I really think this "all Marner cares about is money" thing is rank speculation. He's become the whipping boy in Toronto for various reasons but to the extent that their playoff struggles have been about not wanting to win badly enough, he's hardly the only guy that has struggled. Hell, he was very good in the two postseasons before last year.

Could be others that are the problem, could be that their roster just isn't constructed that well (I think this is most of it), could be bad luck, or some combination. It's not like he's some selfish player that doesn't play defense or something.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

I wouldn't be shocked if, after the crucible of being the whipping boy in Tortono's media environment, Marner likes the idea of $14M to play for a small market with no expectations.

 

[101st_fan]

Trotz has about 100 days to formulate his plan before the draft and free agency. How he manages the roster from end of season through about July 2nd is a troublesome thought.

 

[Kat Predator]

Trotz has about 100 days to formulate his plan before the draft and free agency. How he manages the roster from end of season through about July 2nd is a troublesome thought.

It's best not to think about it until after the 4th of July's hot dogs are fully digested.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Trotzy hangs out with Korn at the 300 level concourse during intermission's if you want to say, "Hi".

where at specifically in the 300s?

 

[herzausstein]

If we get anyone in UFA, it needs to be a late 20s year old (Marner or Chychrun age range) and we need to move some of the mid 30s guys and relegate of 4th liners to the AHL or trade them.