Speculation: Armchair GM Thread

[bdub24]

I was just thinking this morning. I was excited and nostalgic and happy when Trotz was announced as Poile’s successor. Then we landed some names. Everything on paper was exciting. What a cluster f***.

 

[originalpredfan]

Not a good time to be an NHL or NFL fan in Nashville. Does anyone truly believe that either GM has the ability to either select draft picks, make intelligent trades, pick the right coach, or recruit top notch free agents? I know I for one have no confidence in Trotz or Carthon to make correct decisions.

 

[adsfan]

It goes down like this I’ll only call Trotz the AntiPoile from now on

My daughter says that Poile was the "Architect of Mediocrity".

Trotz could be the "Bringer of Doom" in my book!

Mr Doom? Dr Doom? The End of all Things (Holy or Good)?

 

[adsfan]

This is going to suck. I might need to take a break from this team for a bit.

Like until 2030?

 

[adsfan]

Pärssinen has no value at this point. He sits in the pressbox and is probably only avoiding waivers because Trotz already looks like a dumbass for Fabbro and Tomasino. Novak is lucky to get 12 mins a night under Bruno and hed probably rather have sissons as 3C tbh. Those two are treated as spare parts to be dealt with.

Wood is a bigger guy that isnt overly physical and not fleet of foot.

None of these guys really fit the team identity. Doesnt mean we should have to pay this much but also players that dont really fit the teams direction.

Why not keep Novak? He is smaller, not overly physical and not that fleet of foot.

 

[adsfan]

Some of it is maybe passable yada yada GM speak and then he just starts trying to gaslight us into thinking Bruno is maximizing this roster.

I thought that Bruno is minimizing this roster? That is why the Preds are in 31st / 32nd place!

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Like until 2030?

Hell, I'm not sure I'll be above ground by then at the rate things are currently going.

 

[adsfan]

Hell, I'm not sure I'll be above ground by then at the rate things are currently going.

You know the old saying.

If Hell freezes over, we will play hockey down there too.

(The flip side is that Kronwall will be down there on the other team!)

 

[BigFatCat999]

Not a good time to be an NHL or NFL fan in Nashville. Does anyone truly believe that either GM has the ability to either select draft picks, make intelligent trades, pick the right coach, or recruit top notch free agents? I know I for one have no confidence in Trotz or Carthon to make correct decisions.

Heh, i’m a patriots and Preds fan. Both are in contention to get number one.

 

[Scoresberg]

Yeah I mean I wouldn't be surprised if we got on a mini hot streak to end up higher in the standings but nothing that has happened this season indicates to me we are destined to go on a run at some point.

In terms of analytics, there's actually a bunch of data that indicates that we've been really unlucky this year and it could very well turn around anytime soon.

Our PDO (the luck metric of hockey, if you will) is .970, which is the lowest of the league by a healthy margin. 5v5 shooting percentage is 5.79%, which is historically low as well.

Also, in terms of xGF%, we're hovering around league average whereas our GF% is, again, league-low by a good margin.

Add to that Saros' good play to start the year and I do think we'll turn this around at some point, just enough to dodge a top-pick at the draft. I'd say 8-11 is the range we'll end up.

 

[Predsanddead24]

In terms of analytics, there's actually a bunch of data that indicates that we've been really unlucky this year and it could very well turn around anytime soon.

Our PDO (the luck metric of hockey, if you will) is .970, which is the lowest of the league by a healthy margin. 5v5 shooting percentage is 5.79%, which is historically low as well.

Also, in terms of xGF%, we're hovering around league average whereas our GF% is, again, league-low by a good margin.

Add to that Saros' good play to start the year and I do think we'll turn this around at some point, just enough to dodge a top-pick at the draft. I'd say 8-11 is the range we'll end up.

Essentially each of those stats is just an indicator of the same thing which is that we have a low shooting percentage. Which I suppose there is a decent argument that guys like Stamkos and Forsberg will eventually revert to the mean and shots will stop dropping. However, I’ve never really found any argument around shooting percentage all that compelling at the individual season level. Analytics are all well and good but watching our games I don’t see all that many that we’ve lost that we should have won whether or not the fancy stats say we should be winning more on aggregate.

 

[Scoresberg]

Essentially each of those stats is just an indicator of the same thing which is that we have a low shooting percentage. Which I suppose there is a decent argument that guys like Stamkos and Forsberg will eventually revert to the mean and shots will stop dropping. However, I’ve never really found any argument around shooting percentage all that compelling at the individual season level. Analytics are all well and good but watching our games I don’t see all that many that we’ve lost that we should have won whether or not the fancy stats say we should be winning more on aggregate.

Yeah, something tells me that Forsberg's, Stamkos' and Marchessault's 22-goal paces will start to improve and we'll start winning games.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Yeah, something tells me that Forsberg's, Stamkos' and Marchessault's 22-goal paces will start to improve and we'll start winning games.

Maybe but it’s not like we’ve never seen teams vacillate between being high scoring and low scoring in consecutive seasons. Just look at the difference between the 21-22 team and the 22-23 team that was mostly the same guys.

 

[Armourboy]

Not to mention the other night showed that just because we score doesn't mean we are going to win. Sure we scored 4, but we gave up 5. Just because those guys start scoring doesn't mean we start winning.

 

[ShagDaddy]

In terms of analytics, there's actually a bunch of data that indicates that we've been really unlucky this year and it could very well turn around anytime soon.

Our PDO (the luck metric of hockey, if you will) is .970, which is the lowest of the league by a healthy margin. 5v5 shooting percentage is 5.79%, which is historically low as well.

Also, in terms of xGF%, we're hovering around league average whereas our GF% is, again, league-low by a good margin.

Add to that Saros' good play to start the year and I do think we'll turn this around at some point, just enough to dodge a top-pick at the draft. I'd say 8-11 is the range we'll end up.

Your post is more proof that those made up stats are pretty much useless. If it’s not a hard stat like goals for, goals against, wins and losses, then it’s just a unicorn fart or pixie dust.
XGF%. Who exactly expected it to be a goal, Mary and her little lamb or Superman?

 

[Scoresberg]

Your post is more proof that those made up stats are pretty much useless. If it’s not a hard stat like goals for, goals against, wins and losses, then it’s just a unicorn fart or pixie dust.
XGF%. Who exactly expected it to be a goal, Mary and her little lamb or Superman?

Are shooting and save percentages considered ”hard stats”?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Your post is more proof that those made up stats are pretty much useless. If it’s not a hard stat like goals for, goals against, wins and losses, then it’s just a unicorn fart or pixie dust.
XGF%. Who exactly expected it to be a goal, Mary and her little lamb or Superman?

I dread the day hockey goes full advanced stats...it ruins baseball discussion. Counting stats that have been "meaningful" for 100 years become irrelevant (e.g. RBIs...yes, it is a flawed and contextual stat) and all player discussion and comparison boils down to who has the higher WAR.

 

[ShagDaddy]

Are shooting and save percentages considered ”hard stats”?

Can shooting and save percentage be physically measured?

 

[wmupreds]

I dread the day hockey goes full advanced stats...it ruins baseball discussion. Counting stats that have been "meaningful" for 100 years become irrelevant (e.g. RBIs...yes, it is a flawed and contextual stat) and all player discussion and comparison boils down to who has the higher WAR.

The reason that happened, to the extent it did, is that the highly paid management types figured out that WAR correlated more closely with winning games than the old stats. It's that simple. Hockey is behind baseball in that regard (and the game doesn't lend itself as well to quantifying in that way) but there's no shame in attempting to better spend your limited resources.

 

[Armourboy]

The reason that happened, to the extent it did, is that the highly paid management types figured out that WAR correlated more closely with winning games than the old stats. It's that simple. Hockey is behind baseball in that regard (and the game doesn't lend itself as well to quantifying in that way) but there's no shame in attempting to better spend your limited resources.

Yeah but it reduced the game into dullness and has removed 90% of the strategy. Might as well just check the box score, its about as entertaining as the actual game.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Yeah but it reduced the game into dullness and has removed 90% of the strategy. Might as well just check the box score, its about as entertaining as the actual game.

This is the same sport that had to limit defensive positioning because hitters refused to just hit the ball to the gaping hole on the other side of the field...because fancy stats said they should just keep swinging for the fence instead. Tony Gwynn rolling in his grave.

 

[Scoresberg]

Some rumours on ROR:

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Yeah I saw Eliot's segment this morning.

All I gotta say is our management is soft as toilet paper. ROR is probably our best trade chip and if we aren't willing to move him because he hasn't indicated he wants to be moved then the "retire in Nashville" line Trotz had when he started the gig is a complete farce.

 

[Kat Predator]

Yeah I saw Eliot's segment this morning.

All I gotta say is our management is soft as toilet paper. ROR is probably our best trade chip and if we aren't willing to move him because he hasn't indicated he wants to be moved then the "retire in Nashville" line Trotz had when he started the gig is a complete farce.

Trotz is the hotelier of the country club.

 

[Armourboy]

Yeah I saw Eliot's segment this morning.

All I gotta say is our management is soft as toilet paper. ROR is probably our best trade chip and if we aren't willing to move him because he hasn't indicated he wants to be moved then the "retire in Nashville" line Trotz had when he started the gig is a complete farce.

It is a farce, the Stamkos, Marchessault, and Saros contracts already proved that. It was simply a line he used to take a poke at Duchene, a guy he didn't like.