Speculation: Armchair GM Thread

[Softball99]

Maybe he can talk them into Novangkowski.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

Man, I just don't see Cozens, with that contract, being worth ZLH and a 1st. If he were suddenly a UFA, would he even get 7M per year for 6 years? Unless there's some heavy retention, I don't see that value.

At 50% off, for sure, but not at full price for that long when he's been 0.5PPG for two years.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Yeah well based on what we are seeing this season Trotz is more likely to screw it up than get it right anyways. If Trotz is still trying to fix this team rather than look to the future he needs to be fired.

Certainly won't disagree with that.

 

[Kat Predator]

I dunno, we're not exactly the place where struggling young players come to turn things around?

Buffalo fans sure don't seem to think Cozens is very good, nor do they think he can stick at center in the NHL. I don't watch him play enough to have a personal opinion, but putting together all the hearsay, he sure sounds like he'd really be some kind of desperation pickup if we went after him.

I guess if you put together a bunch of stuff we don't want or need like Carrier, Sissons, etc, then maybe you could take a gamble, but it's a pretty high stakes one given his contract, with low odds of a payoff?

I for sure wouldn't be putting in any futures assets that we still have high hopes for. Not any of our 1sts (not the late VGK one even) or any of our top prospects. We shouldn't get overexcited just because he's a "young center"... he might be an overly expensive middle-6 RW in reality.

Buffalo fans talk about Cozens like we talked about Joey but with even less optimism. He's maybe available for a reason. You throw in that we don't like to develop young players and this sounds par for the course.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think trading ZLH in a deal like this is just cutting off the left arm to replace a missing right arm. You don't have anyone else wit ZLH's characteristics, so that alone makes him worth keeping and rolling the dice on. ZLH may not ever be anymore than he is, but he is young and has a ton of room to progress. Frankly finding guys like him is about as hard as finding a good Center.

Yeah, if I see the Preds basically "throwing in" ZLH in a deal like this, it just reads more to me again like Trotz liquidating players he didn't pick. L'Heureux has made a very nice ascension through the pro ranks so far. We seem to be very predisposed to having guys play out the string in the AHL, but he has forced himself onto the NHL roster after just 1 season. I think he has a lot more he's going to show over the next couple of seasons.

His player type is definitely somewhat rare. Some might say that's almost a "good thing", and maybe Trotz doesn't like the history or the possibility of ZLH being a "marked man" by the refs, and how that might play out? I don't know. It just seems to me like there is maybe not that much separating ZLH and Cozens as assets to begin with. Then you factor in Cozens' contract. Then we're piling in a bunch more on top of ZLH?

 

[Flgatorguy87]

ZLH is a nice player, but Cozens broke into the league at 19, was a 0.5ppg at 20, and .84 ppg at 21. I get he's not been as good the last 2 years, but again if he was good this entire conversation doesn't exist. He's clearly got the talent to play at a high level in this league. I would be happy if ZLH gets to the level Cozens was at last year in a bad year. The contract is a gamble, but worth exploring retention on for sure or swapping back Novak.

I just point this out because in my time on this board I have seen years and years of complaints that we never have a center that's capable, then some potential suitor comes along, warty as they might be, and everyone talks themselves out of the player. We also tend to fall in love with a lot of the players we send out in deals.

I have no idea what will come of this deal, but if Trotz thinks Cozens can be the 68 point player he was before then we should be making this trade. Like I said before, do we have confidence that Trotz and the boys can make the correct assessment? If the answer is no then the entire conversation is moot because we got the wrong guy in place.

 

[Kat Predator]

I just point this out because in my time on this board I have seen years and years of complaints that we never have a center that's capable, then some potential suitor comes along, warty as they might be, and everyone talks themselves out of the player.

The thing is that Poile did try this same approach multiple times before. And, yes, people complained because collecting someone else's reclamation project is necessarily risky. It's just obvious that if Cozens was playing like McDavid, he wouldn't be available for 15 clones of ZLH.

The real drawback here is the contract. If he turns out to be a Turris that we have to buyout, that's not going to go over real well. I suspect he may be something between Joey and Duchene. Good enough if you surround him just right. Maybe even very good in spurts.

The second order drawback is that we're really set up to make young players fail here at the moment. So Cozens, if he lands here, better hit the ground flying, because at 23 and a non-cereal winner, his leash will be short.

 

[bdub24]

If Trotz does make a trade for Cozens, hopefully he’s not dumb enough to include Fink in that. Could you imagine giving up the next Gretzky for a potential 1C/2C guy????

Why for the love of the game would anyone advocate for abusing the next Gretzky by keeping him in an org like ours?

 

[Flgatorguy87]

The thing is that Poile did try this same approach multiple times before. And, yes, people complained because collecting someone else's reclamation project is necessarily risky. It's just obvious that if Cozens was playing like McDavid, he wouldn't be available for 15 clones of ZLH.

The real drawback here is the contract. If he turns out to be a Turris that we have to buyout, that's not going to go over real well. I suspect he may be something between Joey and Duchene. Good enough if you surround him just right. Maybe even very good in spurts.

The second order drawback is that we're really set up to make young players fail here at the moment. So Cozens, if he lands here, better hit the ground flying, because at 23 and a non-cereal winner, his leash will be short.

If they retain, which seems unlikely to me then yes the contract is the gamble and the reason you have any chance of trading for him. If Novak is going back we are clearing some space on his deal. Unfortunately, we've not really been able to find ways to create our own prospects but at least with Cozens your getting a younger player instead of an older retread.

It's a gamble for sure, but if ZLH is the best piece we are giving up then I roll the dice.

 

[Kat Predator]

If they retain, which seems unlikely to me then yes the contract is the gamble and the reason you have any chance of trading for him. If Novak is going back we are clearing some space on his deal. Unfortunately, we've not really been able to find ways to create our own prospects but at least with Cozens your getting a younger player instead of an older retread.

It's a gamble for sure, but if ZLH is the best piece we are giving up then I roll the dice.

So, you're good with Novak, ZLH, and a 1st for Cozens?

Having seen this movie several times already, I'm pretty confident with the expectation that he's not going to be our magical #1C unicorn if he comes here. Also, not going to say we don't need to upgrade down the middle anyway.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

At least if Trotz trades for the guy and is on the hook to pay him $7M+ then I doubt he’d be allowed to go through the Bruno meat grinder for young players. He’ll be granted his 20 mins a night on a top line… for better or worse.

So there is that.

(Yes, I do have that much faith in the complete lack of any meritocratic approach being applied here these days.)

 

[Flgatorguy87]

So, you're good with Novak, ZLH, and a 1st for Cozens?

Having seen this movie several times already, I'm pretty confident with the expectation that he's not going to be our magical #1C unicorn if he comes here. Also, not going to say we don't need to upgrade down the middle anyway.

I think so because we have so many 1sts already, I'm not a Novak fan, and ZLH is the hardest piece for me to give up. I accept the risk with it and see the biggest risk being Cozens turns into a 40ish point player and he's just a more expensive Novak. That would be hard to swallow, but I see us in a place that we should be trying to get more aggressive in finding players with higher potential.

It would be a lot cooler if we could do Novak and a 1st.

 

[Kat Predator]

At least if Trotz trades for the guy and is on the hook to pay him $7M+ then I doubt he’d be allowed to go through the Bruno meat grinder for young players. He’ll be granted his 20 mins a night on a top line… for better or worse.

So there is that.

(Yes, I do have that much faith in the complete lack of any meritocratic approach being applied here these days.)

Sounds like Trotz wants the Sabres to eat a bunch of that contract. So that would put him closer to Novak's contract. Which might mean he gets the yo-yo treatment.

 

[beardawg]

I think moving a 1st + another significant prospect for Cozens is probably where the deal starts at. Buffalo isn't trading him for our spare parts regardless of how his points have regressed- it would just make more sense to keep him and hope he rebounds. He's only 23.

I'd pretty easily move one of the late 1st rounders, Wood/Edstrom, Novak and Lauzon/Carrier for him. If he can get back to a 60 point average, then he's pretty much a prime RyJo at a lower cap. He can take 1C responsibilities until our shiny new top 5 pick is ready for it. O'Reilly slides to 3C in the last year of his deal

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Sounds like Trotz wants the Sabres to eat a bunch of that contract. So that would put him closer to Novak's contract. Which might mean he gets the yo-yo treatment.

If Trotz can get them to retain on a 7 year deal then absolutely sign me up. If we could get his deal into the 5.5ish million range then his chances of being a net positive 2C are pretty high in my opinion. 2Cs aren't the going rate they use to be.

 

[Kat Predator]

I think so because we have so many 1sts already, I'm not a Novak fan, and ZLH is the hardest piece for me to give up. I accept the risk with it and see the biggest risk being Cozens turns into a 40ish point player and he's just a more expensive Novak. That would be hard to swallow, but I see us in a place that we should be trying to get more aggressive in finding players with higher potential.

It would be a lot cooler if we could do Novak and a 1st.

Yeah. Plus this is a weak draft, so having a ton of 1st rounders may not turn into as much as we'd like.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Yeah. Plus this is a weak draft, so having a ton of 1st rounders may not turn into as much as we'd like.

If we don't do anything with our 1sts then I'd like to see us trying to concentrate our assets. I know there's 2 different points on the board, and one side says they want more bites at the pie...I want one big bite. We have historically been able to find middle six, positionally average players. I want and we need difference makers.

 

[bdub24]

If we don't do anything with our 1sts then I'd like to see us trying to concentrate our assets. I know there's 2 different points on the board, and one side says they want more bites at the pie...I want one big bite. We have historically been able to find middle six, positionally average players. I want and we need difference makers.

Yes and - I dont trust Trotz with making sound choices with high draft picks based on his evaluation ‘prowess’ he’s displayed as a GM thus far.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Trotz is not going to get them to retain. But that's where a contract like Novak's comes in. It means we get the little discount in effect for the first couple years of the Cozens deal.

Cozens isn't THAT far gone that retention is going to be available. Unless Buffalo's GM is even worse than ours.

 

[Kat Predator]

Trotz is not going to get them to retain. But that's where a contract like Novak's comes in. It means we get the little discount in effect for the first couple years of the Cozens deal.

Cozens isn't THAT far gone that retention is going to be available. Unless Buffalo's GM is even worse than ours.

Has their GM tried the "well, if you won't give me a prospect plus 4 draft picks for him, I'm going to just waive him!" stealth negotiating move?

 

[glenngineer]

I can understand the frustration with trading a potentially ascending player... but let's be real. This franchise has been built on grinders and fan favorites, not skill forwards. We have not been able to find Centers in any capacity, but we have found good, hard working, bottom 6 guys that might score slightly more than they are expected to. I just don't think the value for those two things is comparable. If Cozens turns into a 65 point player we win this deal going away even if ZLH is a 20/20 2nd line winger. The other issue is Barry is still thinking how do I fix THIS team, so whatever our perspective is on that doesn't matter. He thinks Cozens can play 2C with Stammer and March.

You don’t win championships with 1Cs scoring 65 points.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

You don’t win championships with 1Cs scoring 65 points.

I'd view Cozens as a 2C with hope we could upgrade him.

 

[Soundgarden]

You don’t win championships with 1Cs scoring 65 points.

We're also banking on a top 5 pick being that 1c we've been looking for. I think I want to lock down that piece at the draft before getting pieces to build around him. Thoughts?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

You don’t win championships with 1Cs scoring 65 points.

Interestingly, ROR had never scored 65 points until the year he win the Cup. And last year was his only year above that since.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Didn't read the last page but getting rid of L'Heureux right now is a mistake. He reminded Smith and McCarron that they are grinders and supposed play that way. Other teams already hate him and he isn't doing anything egregious out there.

If you want to use Parssinen, Novak and picks to get a center, fine. Do not f***ing throw away a kid like L'Heureux because you have a fever dream about someone else's prospect.