Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[Aaaarrgghh]

I don't see how locking up Dante Fabbro is not Waddell's top priority right now. It would be terriby frustrating if he didn't return next year.

Anyway, here is the defensemen that are interesting to my uninformed mind to some degree, in order of preference and by type. It's not terribly original, mostly it's defensively oriented types. Size is factored in too. Mateychuk should be the only small guy in the regular D lineup.

UFAs

• Fabbro (3–5 years)
• Gavrikov
• Ekblad (max 5 years)
• Burns (max 1 year)
• Perbix

RFAs

• Samberg (highly unlikely, maybe try a Kotkaniemi?)
• Miller
• Romanov (highly unlikely)
• Dobson

Trade

• Pelech (NTC becomes an M-NTC on July 1st)
• Kesselring (unlikely)
• Willander (highly unlikely)

Beyond Fabbro, my main targets remain Samberg, Gavrikov and Pelech, in that order.

Samberg would require some offer sheet shenanigans à la Kotkaniemi, I'd assume. I have a hard time seeing Winnipeg let him go.

Gavrikov is a UFA and Waddell has hinted as being slightly unwilling to resort to free agency, so if Gavrikov doesn't want to stay with the Kings, maybe they and the Blue Jackets could try swapping UFAs? Provorov for Gavrikov?

With regards to Pelech, I assume that Waddell will want to address the defense already at the draft, which might exclude him due to his contract. Of course, injuries are an issue here too, which might make him a bit of a risk.

Speaking of risks, Ekblad is a very interesting player, but the injuries and physical decline are huge issues. I can see a team like Buffalo being more than willing to offer him 7 years. I wouldn't go longer than 5 with him. Unlikely then.

While on the subject of defensive D, how did Richard look in Cleveland? I seem to recall the first few games being promising.

 

[thebus88]

Getting a goalie is still easily the most important aspect with the team, IMO.

Yes, on acquiring Mavrik Bourque.

No, on trading Chinakhov.

Fabbro is a completely different player when playing with someone other than Werenski. I just think most people are significantly overstating what he is as a player, and the impact he actually has on the team as a whole and on Werenski individually.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Getting a goalie is still easily the most important aspect with the team, IMO.

Yes, on acquiring Mavrik Bourque.

No, on trading Chinakhov.

Fabbro is a completely different player when playing with someone other than Werenski. I just think most people are significantly overstating what he is as a player, and the impact he actually has on the team as a whole and on Werenski individually.

I think it’s entirely possible that Zach elevated his play so much this season that it made it appear Fabbro was especially good as his partner rather than Fabbro allowing Zach to elevate his game.

 

[CannonFire1]

Yeah I’m not trading KJ

I agree with not trading KJ.

 

[alphafox]

I think it’s entirely possible that Zach elevated his play so much this season that it made it appear Fabbro was especially good as his partner rather than Fabbro allowing Zach to elevate his game.

I think its a bit of column A and a bit of column B. Werenski definitely elevated beyond what we have ever seen before, but I suspect that his elevation was both a function of his increased dedication and post-Johnny maturation as well as getting a RD partner that was at least competent which meant he could fully lean into the strengths of his game. If it was up to me, you resign Fabbro and then try to find an upgrade on the Right side (McaVoy, Dobson, Andersson) and then you find the best mix between Z, RD upgrade, Mateychuk and Fabbro. If you can end up with effectively two top pair it really allows you to shelter your third pairing minutes, which I suspect we will need.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I think it’s entirely possible that Zach elevated his play so much this season that it made it appear Fabbro was especially good as his partner rather than Fabbro allowing Zach to elevate his game.

It is quite plausible there was a good reason why Nashville put him on waivers.

It is the same team that ended up with Nick Blankenburg as their 3rd highest scoring defenseman this past season.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I think it’s entirely possible that Zach elevated his play so much this season that it made it appear Fabbro was especially good as his partner rather than Fabbro allowing Zach to elevate his game.

I think there’s lots of truth in this. Fabbro had a good year and I’d like to see him re-signed but it’s fair to ask if he can repeat or play at the level he did of not with Z

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Regarding goaltending, what possibilities are there? I do think Merzlikins needs to go. And I'm done with Tarasov, personally.

The most obvious solution is signing a guy like Jake Allen in free agency. But doesn't he have a history of being slightly inconsistent, exactly the opposite of what the Blue Jackets need next to Greaves? Are there any other options?

I do tend to wonder if the Blue Jackets take a bet on a Merzlikins-Demko swap. It would be a big gamble for Columbus, to be sure. Especially considering Columbus' own injury history. But he only has one year left on his deal.

Otherwise, which starting goaltenders are even realistically available in a trade? Shesterkin? Saros? Swayman? Sirokin? None of them strikes me as terribly likely. Gibson has been discussed, but it's not obvious to me that he's a better goaltender than Merzlikins. In fact, he is just as inconsistent.

I just don't see how the goaltending situation is surely going to be improved unless you think that trading Merzlikins is addition by subtraction, which I don't necessarily.

With that in mind, maybe they just roll with Merzlikins and Greaves next season.

 

[majormajor]

I think there’s lots of truth in this. Fabbro had a good year and I’d like to see him resigned but it’s fair to ask if he can repeat or play at the level he did of not with Z

Always fair to ask. But did he ever give us a sign with his play here that he might not be able to handle top 4 duty? Not even a glimmer of that, in my opinion. He got very good results with everyone, not just with Werenski on the ice, and showed a polished game at both ends. We're on the verge of not just losing the most cost efficient partner for Werenski, but also just losing an all-around top 4 RD.

I just don't see how the goaltending situation is surely going to be improved unless you think that trading Merzlikins is addition by subtraction, which I don't necessarily.

With that in mind, maybe they just roll with Merzlikins and Greaves next season.

"Surely going to be improved" is not something you ever get with goaltending. No guarantees. Not with Allen, or Demko, or anyone who isn't a superstar. I think we have more room for optimism with Jet Greaves coming up. He might take care of it, which is the most you can say about any young goalie.

 

[Banana duck]

It's a moot point until about December when things get so ugly in Boston that McAvoy and/or Pastrnak demand a trade. Then if the Jackets are in a very good standings position Werenski can make a good pitch to McAvoy to join him.



I think we get outbid on both.

Everyone constantly trying to unload KJ.

Regarding goaltending, what possibilities are there? I do think Merzlikins needs to go. And I'm done with Tarasov, personally.

The most obvious solution is signing a guy like Jake Allen in free agency. But doesn't he have a history of being slightly inconsistent, exactly the opposite of what the Blue Jackets need next to Greaves? Are there any other options?

I do tend to wonder if the Blue Jackets take a bet on a Merzlikins-Demko swap. It would be a big gamble for Columbus, to be sure. Especially considering Columbus' own injury history. But he only has one year left on his deal.

Otherwise, which starting goaltenders are even realistically available in a trade? Shesterkin? Saros? Swayman? Sirokin? None of them strikes me as terribly likely. Gibson has been discussed, but it's not obvious to me that he's a better goaltender than Merzlikins. In fact, he is just as inconsistent.

I just don't see how the goaltending situation is surely going to be improved unless you think that trading Merzlikins is addition by subtraction, which I don't necessarily.

With that in mind, maybe they just roll with Merzlikins and Greaves next season.

Demko has an injury that was described as “unprecedented” and “never seen before in an NHL player.” His prognosis was “there’s no surgical fix, he will just have to learn how to play through it”

There is a reason Vancouver has a - previously Vezina caliber goalie - on the trade block and has signed another goaltender long term.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Even if Fabbro was enhanced by Werenski, do we not want a stable and reliable partner long term for Mateychuk as well? If Fabbro is easy to play with, wouldn’t that be good for Mateychuk as well as he starts growing?

I have no problems if people have higher aspirations for a partner for Werenski. That’s fine. But we have to walk before we can run and we know he works well with Z. Why not keep him around while also still aiming to get better than him?

 

[thebus88]

Everyone constantly trying to unload KJ.

Chinakhov, actually. It’s ridiculous that people would think about moving either guy, IMO.

Even if Fabbro was enhanced by Werenski, do we not want a stable and reliable partner long term for Mateychuk as well? If Fabbro is easy to play with, wouldn’t that be good for Mateychuk as well as he starts growing?

I have no problems if people have higher aspirations for a partner for Werenski. That’s fine. But we have to walk before we can run and we know he works well with Z. Why not keep him around while also still aiming to get better than him?

Severson > Fabbro

IMO, of course. The negative opinions regarding Severson around here are an entirely different subject, while also inherently related and “ingrained” within all Fabbro talks.

Fabbro is not a “polished” player, and has plenty of issues within his game, that absolutely showed at times during the year.

It’s like I’m watching completely different players from most people when it comes to Severson, Provorov and Fabbro.

That said, quite frankly and simply, NONE of the 3 are good partners for EITHER Werenski or Mateychuk.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Chinakhov, actually. It’s ridiculous that people would think about moving either guy, IMO.


Severson > Fabbro

IMO, of course. The negative opinions regarding Severson around here are an entirely different subject, while also inherently related and “ingrained” within all Fabbro talks.

Fabbro is not a “polished” player, and has plenty of issues within his game, that absolutely showed at times during the year.

It’s like I’m watching completely different players from most people when it comes to Severson, Provorov and Fabbro.

That said, quite frankly and simply, NONE of the 3 are good partners for EITHER Werenski or Mateychuk.

Severson isn’t going anywhere. So, Im fine with including him in the “potential partner for Mateychuk” group.

If our right side D is some mix of Severson, Fabbro, and a shutdown D..I don’t think anyone will complain. You can put whoever you want on any pair.

 

[thebus88]

Severson isn’t going anywhere. So, Im fine with including him in the “potential partner for Mateychuk” group.

If our right side D is some mix of Severson, Fabbro, and a shutdown D..I don’t think anyone will complain. You can put whoever you want on any pair.

I ultimately have no issue with Severson-Fabbro-Gudbranson FILLING OUT the right side.

But, the issue is that last sentence. NONE of these guys should be playing top pair with Werenski. I could make the case for Gudbranson being the best fit out of the 3 with Werenski. It’s clear to me that Werenski essentially “carried” every partner he played with, other than Mateychuk. Who also, isn’t really a great partner for Werenski, at least not yet, while probably being a better option than all the other candidates.

 

[CannonFire1]

My list of defensive targets would be a top tier of Weegar, McAvoy or Gavrikov, followed by a second tier of Pulock, Pelech, Kesselring or Ekblad. I would also like to see Fabbro return.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Chinakhov, actually. It’s ridiculous that people would think about moving either guy, IMO.

i think they will move him and i’m not against it.

when healthy he’s a good player who is worth keeping. but he’s missed something like 150 of the 320 possible games he’s been on the roster for.

between the healthy scratches/ineffectiveness down the stretch, the reports of the team being frustrated with his efforts to get back, and the (likely) leak about his injury not being structural right before the deadline, it’s not unreasonable to think there’s enough smoke to think there’s some fire to him not being in their plans moving forward.

Severson > Fabbro

IMO, of course. The negative opinions regarding Severson around here are an entirely different subject, while also inherently related and “ingrained” within all Fabbro talks.

Fabbro is not a “polished” player, and has plenty of issues within his game, that absolutely showed at times during the year.

fabbro’s not big and is a bit penalty prone sometimes but i think he’s pretty good. not a crease clearer but he has good ice coverage and makes smart reads. also had some very good sequences in the offensive zone as a chance creator.

That said, quite frankly and simply, NONE of the 3 are good partners for EITHER Werenski or Mateychuk.

fabbro is the best partner werenski’s had since seth jones imo, just in a different way.

he’s not a guy who carries a defensive pair, but he was awesome playing a complimentary game that let werenski run wild.

there are definitely guys out there who have better skillsets as NZ stoppers but fabbro wants to be here and shouldn’t break the bank. feels like they should direct assets to finding a difference maker for the second pair.

this board seems hellbent on getting a RH second pair guy to play with mateychuk, but to your point about severson, it might be more effective to find him a partner for the second pair (ideally a mobile NZ stopper like gavrikov) and let denton run wild next to gudbranson on the third pair.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[EspenK]

Not sure if I'm in favor of him or not but Columbus is close to Toronto and its a great place to raise a family. Plus team is on the upswing and he'd fit nicely. We have the cap. He's a good defensive F.

Marner-Monahan-Voronkov
Marchenko-Fantilli-Johnson

Could be a very good top 6.

 

[Ice9]

Make an offer. Show others that we’re trying to compete and willing to try and sign guys who could make a difference. Send a signal that CBJ are a competitive franchise. Get guys in for a look see…

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

That tweet reads like - and I know I do this and oftentimes it’s just the vagaries of Twitter-speak - Marner is looking at teams and then also there are teams he’s not looking at that are preparing offers.

 

[LJ7]

Not sure if I'm in favor of him or not but Columbus is close to Toronto and its a great place to raise a family. Plus team is on the upswing and he'd fit nicely. We have the cap. He's a good defensive F.

Marner-Monahan-Voronkov
Marchenko-Fantilli-Johnson

Could be a very good top 6.

Agreed. We are weak on special teams and have become a relatively big, tough team that lacks some playmaking down the forward lineup. Marner helps with each of those problems and I think he would flourish here. I personally would sort it a little differently and run:

Johnson-Monahan-Marchenko
Voronkov*-Fantilli-Marner

With the Voronkov spot up in the air, maybe could be filled by Jenner, Chinakhov, Sillinger even. You never know who clicks with who though.

Marner and Fantilli are awesome compliments to one another on paper and I believe Marner can help Fantilli on his possesion play while maintaining his scoring output. He would help the PK instantly as well, and would improve the struggles the lineup faces with passing and connective play sans Monahan's line and Johnson. Marner would help us in the arms race with NJD we are engaged in. Being comparatively as skilled as the Devils while being bigger and tougher overall sounds nice to me.

EDIT:
I also have some thoughts on the practicality of the move. I'm not sure the massive tricked-out-with-clauses 14 million dollar deal that Marner desires is out there for him. Cap space is there in spades this summer, but when big name perimeter playmaker wings hit UFA. On the other hand I expect defensemen and tougher players to get paid higher than expected, Gavrikov may get 8 million imo. I don't forsee a full NBA 2016 summer. Maybe I'm totally off base but I expect Marner's deal will land around 12 annually million without a full NMC. If he gets a bigger contract that Matthews I would be a little surprised even with the cap bump.

Another angle is that we are a UFA destination. We aren't a destination to the extent of the cup contending teams located in perma-summer climates, but we've landed some very high profile free agents lately. That's our reality. The setup here isn't for everyone but guys with young families that love the game and may not love what comes with the game off-ice both come here and stay here. I don't know Marner well enough to understand what he values in life currently, but we are a pretty appealing option. Adding in the fact that the team is rising and has exited the leagues basement certainly helps as well.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

That tweet reads like - and I know I do this and oftentimes it’s just the vagaries of Twitter-speak - Marner is looking at teams and then also there are teams he’s not looking at that are preparing offers.

Thats my assumption as well. That we arent apart of the 7-8 teams hes "looking at".

 

[NotCommitted]

Wasn't Werenski pretty vocal about liking to play with Fabbro? I mean I'm not expecting he would say anything bad or not compliment anyone he was playing with, but I seem to remember it reading to me like he really meant it beyond nice words.

Too lazy to check right now, but sometime during last season I took a look at their numbers and if I recall right Werenski did about equally great with all of Fabbro / Severson / Provorov. I think he just was a beast last season. That said if it is like I remember and he basically went out of his way to praise Fabbro, you'd think Waddell would be eager to sign the guy. Or maybe I read too much into it and it was just another one of those cases where someone asked Zach about Fabbro and he went full-on "American handing out the compliments" mode

IMO Severson is a better player than most people give him credit for but it seems like "most people" includes Evason so maybe they are looking into moving him. With the cap going up I guess that contract isn't looking that bad anymore.

 

[LJ7]

IMO Severson is a better player than most people give him credit for but it seems like "most people" includes Evason so maybe they are looking into moving him. With the cap going up I guess that contract isn't looking that bad anymore.

Dean may be more comfortable with Severson if he gets a security blanket shutdown 2nd pair, and Severson slides down to the 3rd pair with Mateychuk up with Werenski or down with Severson. It's hard to imagine how we would create a 2nd pair out of nothing over the summer though, but maybe we could do something like Toronto did with McCabe and Tanev.

 

[Banana duck]

Wasn't Werenski pretty vocal about liking to play with Fabbro? I mean I'm not expecting he would say anything bad or not compliment anyone he was playing with, but I seem to remember it reading to me like he really meant it beyond nice words.

Too lazy to check right now, but sometime during last season I took a look at their numbers and if I recall right Werenski did about equally great with all of Fabbro / Severson / Provorov. I think he just was a beast last season. That said if it is like I remember and he basically went out of his way to praise Fabbro, you'd think Waddell would be eager to sign the guy. Or maybe I read too much into it and it was just another one of those cases where someone asked Zach about Fabbro and he went full-on "American handing out the compliments" mode

IMO Severson is a better player than most people give him credit for but it seems like "most people" includes Evason so maybe they are looking into moving him. With the cap going up I guess that contract isn't looking that bad anymore.

Yes he was. I assume Waddell just hasn’t gotten around to it yet. He has another month to do it. In his own words, he wanted to speak to Evason about the pending UFAs, and Evason has only been back in the states about a week.

If you look at when a lot of his contracts were signed in Carolina, there are a few that went deep into June before getting done.