Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[CBJWerenski8]

The atheltic did an article about 5 RFAs who could get traded:

The list was Byrum, Rossi, Peterka, Dobson, and K’Andre Miller

Any interest in any of these guys, namely miller and Dobson?

 

[CBJx614]

The atheltic did an article about 5 RFAs who could get traded:

The list was Byrum, Rossi, Peterka, Dobson, and K’Andre Miller

Any interest in any of these guys, namely miller and Dobson?

Gotta think if Waddell has been talking about fixing the D we'd at least reach out on Miller. Seems like the kinda guy who could fit in with the defensive core

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Gotta think if Waddell has been talking about fixing the D we'd at least reach out on Miller. Seems like the kinda guy who could fit in with the defensive core

I don't think KAM has developed into the all-around player his frame might suggest, though?

I happened into some discussion on the NYR board suggesting they should explore KAM for Sillinger. While the response was they should aim higher than Cole, there was also the sense that Miller didn't fit here because we have guys who do what he does.

I wonder if Byram, who also profiles similarly, might be a better target? Problem with those two (and add in Dobson) is that they all profile similarly, a potential all-around d-man but who is stronger offensively. I'd like the exact same profile except "defensively" after stronger. I just don't know who that might be.

 

[GoJackets1]

For some reason I thought Dobson was 28 or 29. I know he's more offensively oriented, but his underlying 5v5 possession numbers seem pretty solid for the last couple years as well. This in spite of an obviously unlucky PDO this past year. I'm only looking at corsi/fenwick but they are solid so if anyone has evidence to the contrary, I would certainly be interested.

Knowing his possession numbers are better than I expected and that he's only 25 increases my interest level quite a bit. He would fit our timeline pretty well and could give us a pretty elite, possession controlling 1st pair, even if he's not the "defensive D-man" we're looking for. Grabbing him in addition to a solid, defensively-oriented D-man to put with Mateychuk on the 2nd pair would make me feel pretty confident in our D core moving forward.

 

[Banana duck]

I don't think KAM has developed into the all-around player his frame might suggest, though?

I happened into some discussion on the NYR board suggesting they should explore KAM for Sillinger. While the response was they should aim higher than Cole, there was also the sense that Miller didn't fit here because we have guys who do what he does.

I wonder if Byram, who also profiles similarly, might be a better target? Problem with those two (and add in Dobson) is that they all profile similarly, a potential all-around d-man but who is stronger offensively. I'd like the exact same profile expect "defensively" after stronger. I just don't know who that might be.

We don’t need more LHD. Especially one that doesn’t play on his opposite side very well.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

there was also the sense that Miller didn't fit here because we have guys who do what he does.

hard disagree – he's one of the best possible fits with evason's system imo.

I wonder if Byram, who also profiles similarly, might be a better target? Problem with those two (and add in Dobson) is that they all profile similarly, a potential all-around d-man but who is stronger offensively. I'd like the exact same profile expect "defensively" after stronger. I just don't know who that might be.

i'm in the minority here but i want absolutely no part of bo byram.

the elite skating and draft pedigree are nice. the stats haven't been great when he's been away from dahlin. maybe that's just the buffalo effect but if they're gonna move a defenseman i'd go hard after owen power instead. byram's concussion history is terrifying.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

We don’t need more LHD. Especially one that doesn’t play on his opposite side very well.

i'm higher on mateychuk than pretty much anyone but there is absolutely no issue with adding more LHD to the roster.

1. there's a more robust market for LHD than RHD, especially for guys who can do what the jackets need in a top four capacity.
2. the jackets third pair LHD options (harris, christiansen, hunt) aren't particularly good
3. mateychuk played a ton of RD in junior and the AHL and can absolutely play there long-term
4. letting mateychuk carry a third pair is arguably better for his development

 

[majormajor]

if they're gonna move a defenseman i'd go hard after owen power

He's possibly a downgrade for us in the short run. He still doesn't defend at an NHL level. Did you miss having Boqvist back there? Who is giving up offensive minutes to accommodate Power?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

the elite skating and draft pedigree are nice. the stats haven't been great when he's been away from dahlin. maybe that's just the buffalo effect but if they're gonna move a defenseman i'd go hard after owen power instead. byram's concussion history is terrifying.

Yeah I'm more about having the discussion rather than advocating a course of action.

That said, I'd think we could offer Byram a scenario not unlike Buffalo's regarding having an elite partner?

 

[Banana duck]

i'm higher on mateychuk than pretty much anyone but there is absolutely no issue with adding more LHD to the roster.

1. there's a more robust market for LHD than RHD, especially for guys who can do what the jackets need in a top four capacity.
2. the jackets third pair LHD options (harris, christiansen, hunt) aren't particularly good
3. mateychuk played a ton of RD in junior and the AHL and can absolutely play there long-term
4. letting mateychuk carry a third pair is arguably better for his development

Byrum has expressed that he is unhappy in Buffalo because he wants top pairing responsibilities. This doesn’t seem to work with our situation here.

 

[majormajor]

Yeah I'm more about having the discussion rather than advocating a course of action.

That said, I'd think we could offer Byram a scenario not unlike Buffalo's regarding having an elite partner?

The Byram - Dahlin pairing had the best goals ratio in the NHL, something like 70% if I recall. The wrinkle for us though is that Dahlin played the right side. We don't have that.

 

[majormajor]

Byrum has expressed that he is unhappy in Buffalo because he wants top pairing responsibilities. This doesn’t seem to work with our situation here.

He was top pairing there, do you recall more precisely what he said?

I think it's possible that he wants to be the #1D somewhere. But how many teams is he going to be the #1 D on?

 

[Banana duck]

He was top pairing there, do you recall more precisely what he said?

I think it's possible that he wants to be the #1D somewhere. But how many teams is he going to be the #1 D on?

I think it was maybe Friedman on 32 Thoughts that said the issue with him on the Sabres is that with Dahlin and Power there is less room for him to have a heavy role and that wasn’t what he wanted.

Both Dahlin and Power were gone for extended periods this season with injury and I think he was able to play more.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

The atheltic did an article about 5 RFAs who could get traded:

The list was Byrum, Rossi, Peterka, Dobson, and K’Andre Miller

Any interest in any of these guys, namely miller and Dobson?

100% Rossi, love his game

 

[cbjthrowaway]

That said, I'd think we could offer Byram a scenario not unlike Buffalo's regarding having an elite partner?

sure, but why pony up the asset capital to acquire byram + the cap space to keep him just to displace fabbro, who works extremely well with werenski to begin with?

the idea is to build a second (and third) pair that can win its minutes, and ease the burden on werenski that way.

He's possibly a downgrade for us in the short run. He still doesn't defend at an NHL level. Did you miss having Boqvist back there? Who is giving up offensive minutes to accommodate Power?

owen power is a lot of things. adam boqvist is not one of them.

his defense is a work in progress (albeit on a very bad team). he doesn't throw the body like you'd want him to. but he's huge, is an elite skater, and is still just 22 years old. he also is one of the best puck movers in the league already.

the talent is there, and he has a ton of runway to improve and grow into a big-time, do-everything defenseman. he already has elite ice coverage and the ability to control a game with his skating and skill – that's how you ease the burden on werenski.

as for the minutes thing… as schumaker pointed out in his piece yesterday, evason gave huge minutes last year to ivan provorov. power's biggest flaw (NZ defense) is the same as provorov's. he grades out as a better penalty killer, too. and he's an elite puck mover.

editing to add: florida built an elite defensive group over the last few years by betting on talented defensemen with elite skating (montour, forsling, mikkola) and underwhelming defensive metrics, coaching them up, and integrating them into a system that leveraged their strengths. why shouldn't the jackets aim to do the same?

same logic applies to miller and spence. and would've applied to samberg (to an extent) before his big breakout this year.

 

[majormajor]

owen power is a lot of things. adam boqvist is not one of them.

his defense is a work in progress (albeit on a very bad team). he doesn't throw the body like you'd want him to. but he's huge, is an elite skater, and is still just 22 years old. he also is one of the best puck movers in the league already.

the talent is there, and he has a ton of runway to improve and grow into a big-time, do-everything defenseman. he already has elite ice coverage and the ability to control a game with his skating and skill – that's how you ease the burden on werenski.

as for the minutes thing… as schumaker pointed out in his piece yesterday, evason gave huge minutes last year to ivan provorov. power's biggest flaw (NZ defense) is the same as provorov's. he grades out as a better penalty killer, too. and he's an elite puck mover.

editing to add: florida built an elite defensive group over the last few years by betting on talented defensemen with elite skating (montour, forsling, mikkola) and underwhelming defensive metrics, coaching them up, and integrating them into a system that leveraged their strengths. why shouldn't the jackets aim to do the same?

same logic applies to miller and spence. and would've applied to samberg (to an extent) before his big breakout this year.

You're making aspirational claims for Power, he is not that player yet. And Buffalo wasn't a very bad team or even a bad team in a way that would wreck someone's 5v5 stats. They were even on goal differential at 5v5.

I'm not sure you're seriously suggesting we acquire Power so we can hand him the heavy load defensively. He hasn't succeeded yet in handling medium defensive responsibility.

I get trying to learn what we can from the Florida model but you're seemingly listing every random young defenseman without care to how they actually play. Samberg, Spence, K'Andre Miller, these players couldn't be more different from each other.

You brought up Niko Mikkola. He is a sturdy defensive minded player, always was. And Florida got him by signing him to a $2.5m x 2. Their approach is quite far from spending top tier assets to acquire a recent #1OA pick. If we want to emulate Florida then we should upgrade our forecheck so that flawed defenseman like Mikkola can succeed here.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

You're making aspirational claims for Power, he is not that player yet.

the idea is to get players who can become great players before they're great, because it's more cost-effective. one tried-and-true way to do that is to target high picks who are struggling on bad teams.

I'm not sure you're seriously suggesting we acquire Power so we can hand him the heavy load defensively. He hasn't succeeded yet in handling medium defensive responsibility.

seems like you're inferring line construction similar to what tampa has done (elite 1D carrying the top pair, feed hard matchups to the second pair, sheltered third pair) in which case he wouldn't make sense as an immediate target. that's not what i'm saying.

evason didn't do the matchup pair thing last year. his usage wasn't dictated by matchups, it was to simply feed ice time to his top four defensemen, and give some extra shifts to his #5.

in my eyes he is simply a more capable player than provorov, with similar deficiencies but elite offensive tools and physical traits (size, skating) that suggest he can be molded into a very strong defender, given how much runway he has at just 22.

it won't be seamless, but there are ways to mitigate his defensive shortcomings in the interim, such as:

1. pairing him with a partner who fills his biggest weakness (NZ stopping) and lets him do what he does extremely well (retrievals, joining the rush) – basically letting him run wild
2. building up a more matchup-inclined third pair that evason is more comfortable using

so, not the tampa approach. perhaps some shades of the approach vegas took (pair mobile activators with NZ stoppers on the top two pairs, then build a budget matchup third pair) over the last few years.

I get trying to learn what we can from the Florida model but you're seemingly listing every random young defenseman without care to how they actually play. Samberg, Spence, K'Andre Miller, these players couldn't be more different from each other.

because i'm not trying to point out a stylistic similarity between those three players. i'm saying that the florida model is, more broadly, "acquire undervalued players."

obviously reinhart's not a defenseman, but the narrative around him was that he was a one-dimensional skill guy. now he's gonna be a selke finalist.

"overpaying" for dylan samberg last year would've looked like a genius move today. miller's stock is down (a la sam bennett's in calgary) and the questions with spence are around scalability of his metrics to a larger role (i.e. vince dunn leaving st. louis).

You brought up Niko Mikkola. He is a sturdy defensive minded player, always was. And Florida got him by signing him to a $2.5m x 2. Their approach is quite far from spending top tier assets to acquire a recent #1OA pick.

spending top tier assets for a recent top-five pick was their exact approach in the reinhart and tkachuk trades. bennett, too, to an extent. but my point was less about the cost paid and more about the methodology.

montour and forsling both had big flaws (both scouted and in their analytical profiles) but had high-end mobility; florida got both for dirt cheap and turned them into elite defensemen. florida understands that mobility and skill are scalable traits when finding defensemen. owen power has both in spades.

florida bets on talent and acquires players with an idea of what they can be, not just what they have been. it's been their most reliable way of beating the market.

 

[Xoggz22]

The atheltic did an article about 5 RFAs who could get traded:

The list was Byrum, Rossi, Peterka, Dobson, and K’Andre Miller

Any interest in any of these guys, namely miller and Dobson?

Either would be an exciting and big time move. My preference is Dobson. RHD with room to grow, fits the core and could be a top pair RHD for a long time.

 

[koteka]

the idea is to get players who can become great players before they're great

This is the goal. And if we can trade someone near their peak ability and peak value for this undervalued and not yet great player, that would be fantastic.

 

[majormajor]

seems like you're inferring line construction similar to what tampa has done (elite 1D carrying the top pair, feed hard matchups to the second pair, sheltered third pair) in which case he wouldn't make sense as an immediate target. that's not what i'm saying.

Or inferring from any team with a good defensive pairing.

evason didn't do the matchup pair thing last year. his usage wasn't dictated by matchups, it was to simply feed ice time to his top four defensemen, and give some extra shifts to his #5.

We didn't have any good defensive players you would give hard matchups to, so I'm not sure if that was Evason's choice.

There are at least a few reasons why we might target a defenseman -

1) Is good at a thing that we need help with (shutdown)

2) Will improve because of our lineup / system

3) Is undervalued


I don't think Owen Power is undervalued, he's still a recent #1OA and a lot of clubs would like to get him out of Buffalo. It would take one of our better players going back.

And I'm skeptical about criteria #2 as well - much of Power's issue in Buffalo is that he's an offensive LD stuck behind two other high end offensive LD. We can't fix that for him. He's a guy that would blossom the best on a team like San Jose where he could be the guy offensively. #1 PP time and #1 offensive minutes, and not having to stress if you screw up and lose games. He stands to improve with age but there are better situations for him elsewhere.

because i'm not trying to point out a stylistic similarity between those three players. i'm saying that the florida model is, more broadly, "acquire undervalued players."

I also like acquiring undervalued players. It was the other things that you ascribed to those players (yes there was more) that didn't fit.

spending top tier assets for a recent top-five pick was their exact approach in the reinhart and tkachuk trades. bennett, too, to an extent. but my point was less about the cost paid and more about the methodology.

montour and forsling both had big flaws (both scouted and in their analytical profiles) but had high-end mobility; florida got both for dirt cheap and turned them into elite defensemen. florida understands that mobility and skill are scalable traits when finding defensemen. owen power has both in spades.

florida bets on talent and acquires players with an idea of what they can be, not just what they have been. it's been their most reliable way of beating the market.

Florida has given a lot of minutes over the years to D like Kulikov and Mikkola. That was their second pairing this year. And I'm not under the impression that either is some incredible discovery. They have an aggressive system that allows their D to play on their toes - it's why Seth Jones is a great fit there, he's great on his toes and bad on his heels. Then you have Gus Forsling who is just a great player and is the one example of Zito acquiring a great D that was criminally undervalued. We can talk about Montour too but a lot of folks were expecting a breakout at different times from him. Buffalo thought he was going to pop for them and he wasn't ready. It's not just one thing that has allowed Florida to ice a very cost efficient D group, but if we had to pick one thing it would be the aggressive forecheck game that takes the defensive pressure off their D.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Either would be an exciting and big time move. My preference is Dobson. RHD with room to grow, fits the core and could be a top pair RHD for a long time.

Is this really the profile wo should be paired with Werenski?

From the Athletic article:

"The 25-year-old exploded for 70 points and finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting in 2023-24. However, he’s coming off a disappointing 2024-25 season where he produced just 39 points in 71 games. Dobson is an enormously talented top-pair defenseman, but his defensive play has flaws, and his offensive production has clearly vacillated."

From this article:

NY Islanders' Noah Dobson A Complete Enigma In 2024-25

Noah Dobson is the most polarizing member of the 2024-25 New York Islanders. Some will tell you he is a franchise cornerstone who the Islanders should build aro

eyesonisles.com

"What makes it worse is that Dobson’s mistakes are ghastly. There’s currently no analytical way to weigh the importance of a play. Numbers do not discriminate against “goals against”; they all count the same. But the eye test shows that when Dobson messes up, he really messes up and it usually ends up in the back of the net."

"It’s earned him the nickname “Slob-son” from agitated fans. He doesn’t drive the play much, especially on the power play. That’s a minimum expectation of an offensive defenseman; to drive the play and spark the counterattack. His body language is terrible, often appearing visually aloof and lazy. His mistakes all appear to come from not paying attention, physical “softness”, and apathy."

And in reference to some stats showing how good he is or visually how bad he can appear at times:

"As I said above, the answer is probably somewhere in between. There is merit to the belief that Dobson’s high xG indicates an unteachable talent that the Islanders ought to cherish. 25-year-olds don’t often play at this level like that for 24 minutes per night. However, there’s also merit to the belief that he is a contact-avert, underachieving defenseman who has not lived up to his potential."

I don't really watch Islanders games so I have no opinion on him but this synopsis by Islanders fans could make him into Severson 2.0.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

There are at least a few reasons why we might target a defenseman -

1) Is good at a thing that we need help with (shutdown)

this part isn't quite as rigid as you're making it out to be.

power is a high-end PKer. he's great on retrievals and exits. he's an elite playmaker. he's a good play driver. he skates better than any of their non-werenski defensemen.

i would categorize all of those as "needs"

i also wouldn't be so quick to dismiss puck moving as a need, unless you're banking on evason to trust severson. mateychuk's not really there yet. i understand projecting him to grow there, but then why draw the line at power improving in different facets? he's less than two years older than mateychuk.

on that same note, i thought this A3Z article was a good read.

2) Will improve because of our lineup / system

his strongest traits (mobility, activation, skill) play well in our system. but system + lineup fit aren't the only sources of improvement. age curves, physical maturation and coaching all are, too.

3) Is undervalued

I don't think Owen Power is undervalued,

he will be if he improves his defense after being moved.

a columbus trade for him would be predicated on their belief that they can get him there.

he's still a recent #1OA and a lot of clubs would like to get him out of Buffalo. It would take one of our better players going back.

it very well could. i'm only talking about his fit as a target. i'm not talking about the broader market. although, if that market is robust, that would seem to prove that he is or will soon be a very good player, no?

And I'm skeptical about criteria #2 as well - much of Power's issue in Buffalo is that he's an offensive LD stuck behind two other high end offensive LD.

again, my perspective is less rigid here.

dallas's defense is built around two hyper-mobile, high-activation LHD. it's a workable template for the jackets within evason's system. and i don't think that precludes mateychuk from having a big role, either.

It's not just one thing that has allowed Florida to ice a very cost efficient D group, but if we had to pick one thing it would be the aggressive forecheck game that takes the defensive pressure off their D.

they're extremely mobile and prolific on both retrievals and zone exits. that drives possession, which drives their forecheck game.

owen power? extremely mobile, strong on retrievals and zone exits.

if you wanna talk about the guys florida's had who aren't like that, it's been low-cost complimentary guys like gudas, ekman-larsson and kulikov. there's a lane for the jackets to get cheap guys in that mold while also going big for a potential game-breaker in power.

 

[majormajor]

again, my perspective is less rigid here.

dallas's defense is built around two hyper-mobile, high-activation LHD. it's a workable template for the jackets within evason's system. and i don't think that precludes mateychuk from having a big role, either.

FWIW Heiskanen and Dahlin both play on the right side of their respective pairings. They're LHD but RD at the moment. It might not be the biggest obstacle for us if Mateychuk can move over to the right side, we haven't seen him tried there in the NHL yet.

 

[Xoggz22]

Is this really the profile wo should be paired with Werenski?

From the Athletic article:

"The 25-year-old exploded for 70 points and finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting in 2023-24. However, he’s coming off a disappointing 2024-25 season where he produced just 39 points in 71 games. Dobson is an enormously talented top-pair defenseman, but his defensive play has flaws, and his offensive production has clearly vacillated."

From this article:

NY Islanders' Noah Dobson A Complete Enigma In 2024-25

Noah Dobson is the most polarizing member of the 2024-25 New York Islanders. Some will tell you he is a franchise cornerstone who the Islanders should build aro

eyesonisles.com

"What makes it worse is that Dobson’s mistakes are ghastly. There’s currently no analytical way to weigh the importance of a play. Numbers do not discriminate against “goals against”; they all count the same. But the eye test shows that when Dobson messes up, he really messes up and it usually ends up in the back of the net."

"It’s earned him the nickname “Slob-son” from agitated fans. He doesn’t drive the play much, especially on the power play. That’s a minimum expectation of an offensive defenseman; to drive the play and spark the counterattack. His body language is terrible, often appearing visually aloof and lazy. His mistakes all appear to come from not paying attention, physical “softness”, and apathy."

And in reference to some stats showing how good he is or visually how bad he can appear at times:

"As I said above, the answer is probably somewhere in between. There is merit to the belief that Dobson’s high xG indicates an unteachable talent that the Islanders ought to cherish. 25-year-olds don’t often play at this level like that for 24 minutes per night. However, there’s also merit to the belief that he is a contact-avert, underachieving defenseman who has not lived up to his potential."

I don't really watch Islanders games so I have no opinion on him but this synopsis by Islanders fans could make him into Severson 2.0.

Yet the underlying numbers term a different story and when better to add after a down year on a bad team. He's 25, a RHD, has the full skill set to be a top pair guy and I wonder what a good coach and system might do?

Yes, he's a guy i would love. I still want Mcavoy first, but unlikely the Bruins would move him. Perfect to pair guy on this team

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Is this really the profile who should be paired with Werenski?

He's 25, a RHD, has the full skill set to be a top pair guy and I wonder what a good coach and system might do?

imo dobson should be looked at as a potential partner for mateychuk instead of werenski, albeit one that is stylistically different than what people have been clamoring for.

he's not a bruiser, and he loves to jump up in the rush, but has some skating issues that keep him from getting back as fast as werenski (who is incredible at that). mateychuk's ice coverage would help in that regard.

this may lead mateychuk to develop more as a mobile play-killer rather than a prolific rush activator, but the trade-off is that he'd be playing with a guy in dobson who can reliably win his minutes.

at the end of the day, though, i think darche will be too smart to move him.