Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[3074326]

The desperate management in Toronto will probably pay him whatever he wants.

Fingers crossed

 

[614 CBJ]

The Eastern Conference finals are a classic example why we do not want Marner

Florida is destroying Carolina on the forecheck, my #1 reason why that series is so one-sided so far

Marner doesn't know how to spell forecheck

 

[stevo61]

He's going to receive and enormous benefit in his price and term from being on the team that he's been on and the weakness of the UFA crop. He's probably gong to go for double what he's really worth.

Yes, his production is very relevant.

He's a complimentary piece at best now. He'll be an anchor halfway through any overpriced 7 year deal.

You want him for 7 years @ $8 or $9 million? The desperate management in Toronto will probably pay him whatever he wants.

it's pushing it for me but I also have a hard time saying no because he checks off so many boxes in terms of our needs

 

[Cyclones Rock]

it's pushing it for me but I also have a hard time saying no because he checks off so many boxes in terms of our needs

I get where you're coming from.

I would think that a heavy-hitting winger-who wouldn't score as much as SB-could be gotten via trade or UFA much cheaper and with less longer term risk as the 7 year deal Bennett will probably get ages.

It will be interesting to see if the FO goes out and gets a banger or two winger and if they opt for defensemen with some strength and willingness to engage in heavy hitting. With Z being an offensive wizard and Mateychuk's increasing offensive output, I don't think there's a real need to sign a defensemen who is offensively gifted.

 

[NotWendell]

So maybe it's Marner AND?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

So maybe it's Marner AND?

so, along these lines… i thought of this earlier and wondered what this board would think of it: would you trade kent johnson for jason robertson?

i don't think i'd like it… unless the jackets then signed marner. put those two guys with fantilli, keep the 10-23-86 line together, build a matchup line around jenner. would be a ridiculous forward group. then they could move the MIN pick, the 2026 1st, sillinger, etc. as needed to shore up the blueline and goaltending.

that said, if you take marner out of the equation… something around voronkov++ for robertson and a cap dump (maybe dumba) would be really nice.

 

[majormajor]

so, along these lines… i thought of this earlier and wondered what this board would think of it: would you trade kent johnson for jason robertson?

i don't think i'd like it… unless the jackets then signed marner. put those two guys with fantilli, keep the 10-23-86 line together, build a matchup line around jenner. would be a ridiculous forward group. then they could move the MIN pick, the 2026 1st, sillinger, etc. as needed to shore up the blueline and goaltending.

that said, if you take marner out of the equation… something around voronkov++ for robertson and a cap dump (maybe dumba) would be really nice.

I was just thinking from Dallas' perspective that they really should trade Robertson. He gets outworked and outmuscled so often. In previous playoffs he still scored a fair amount but not this year. Perhaps its just an injury, but he's always had this tendency to be far less valuable than his point totals would suggest. They could get good value for him and free up money to upgrade at center and D where they have some weak spots, especially for matchups.

Kind of for the same reasons, I don't really think of Robertson as a great target for the Jackets. The Jackets just had a year where they led the league in 5v5 scoring despite some weaker playdriving and won the easy games they could have won. Robertson seems like the kind of player that would accentuate that rather than upgrade it.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I was just thinking from Dallas' perspective that they really should trade Robertson. He gets outworked and outmuscled so often. In previous playoffs he still scored a fair amount but not this year. Perhaps its just an injury, but he's always had this tendency to be far less valuable than his point totals would suggest. They could get good value for him and free up money to upgrade at center and D where they have some weak spots, especially for matchups.

Kind of for the same reasons, I don't really think of Robertson as a great target for the Jackets. The Jackets just had a year where they led the league in 5v5 scoring despite some weaker playdriving and won the easy games they could have won. Robertson seems like the kind of player that would accentuate that rather than upgrade it.

the version of jason robertson that we've seen the last couple weeks, i agree, gets beat to pucks and outmuscled quite a bit. but to be fair to him, he's definitely not 100% right now health-wise.

it's also true that he outshoots his xG numbers… but i don't think that's a problem in his case because his xG numbers are still really good.

obviously this is all health-dependent, though.

edit: dug a little deeper into his underlying stats – his xGF% in the playoffs this year (while managing an injury) is still extremely good at 56.8%, while his actual GF% is in the 30s. so it's actually the opposite of the narrative, where he's more valuable this postseason than the numbers suggest. the stars have an ugly PDO (.924) when he's on the ice this postseason.

as for his regular-season stats, he's finished above his xGF numbers but as i said, those have still been very good:

	5v5 xGF%	5v5 actual GF%
21-22	58.24	60.71
22-23	59.47	65.14
23-24	58.30	57.89
24-25	51.71	56.36

 

[VT]

The Eastern Conference finals are a classic example why we do not want Marner

Florida is destroying Carolina on the forecheck, my #1 reason why that series is so one-sided so far

Marner doesn't know how to spell forecheck

Yet to be added is Carolina's inability to play creatively.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

The Eastern Conference finals are a classic example why we do not want Marner

Florida is destroying Carolina on the forecheck, my #1 reason why that series is so one-sided so far

Marner doesn't know how to spell forecheck

The league ebbs and flows. Right now, big and rough is in with the panthers and Vegas/St Louis before them. But before that, with Tampa and Colorado, it wasn’t.

Some other play style will come along that takes over for the panthers eventually that people try to replicate. That doesn’t mean we have to try to become the panthers

 

[VT]

so, along these lines… i thought of this earlier and wondered what this board would think of it: would you trade kent johnson for jason robertson?

i don't think i'd like it… unless the jackets then signed marner. put those two guys with fantilli, keep the 10-23-86 line together, build a matchup line around jenner. would be a ridiculous forward group. then they could move the MIN pick, the 2026 1st, sillinger, etc. as needed to shore up the blueline and goaltending.

that said, if you take marner out of the equation… something around voronkov++ for robertson and a cap dump (maybe dumba) would be really nice.

I'd focus on a player like Matthew Knies, a hard winger capable of playing in front of goal, rather than a soft Robertson. And I would never trade Voronkov for him.

Knies (23) - Monahan (31) - Marchenko (25)
Voronkov (25) - Fantilli (21) - Johnson (23)
Jenner (31) - Sillinger (22) - Chinakhov (24)
Aston-Reese (31) - Danforth (32) - Olivier (28)

Werenski (28), Fabbro (27)
Mateychuk (20), Ekblad (29)
Provorov (28), Gudbranson (33)

xxx

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I'd focus on a player like Matthew Knies, a hard winger capable of playing in front of goal, rather than a soft Robertson. And I would never trade Voronkov for him.

i love voronkov but it's wild how overrated he is in on this board. he started this season with 30 points in 34 games. he finished the season with 17 in his last 39. he basically rode a hot streak for the first half of his season and then tailed off hard.

a 47-point season for a 24-year-old wing isn't bad. but jason robertson is only a year older and has averaged 87 points over the last four seasons. he's struggled this postseason (while clearly injured) but the only shortcoming in his game is his footspeed, which… is also voronkov's biggest weakness.

Knies (23) - Monahan (31) - Marchenko (25)
Voronkov (25) - Fantilli (21) - Johnson (23)
Jenner (31) - Sillinger (22) - Chinakhov (24)
Aston-Reese (31) - Danforth (32) - Olivier (28)

Werenski (28), Fabbro (27)
Mateychuk (20), Ekblad (29)
Provorov (28), Gudbranson (33)

xxx

i'd bristle at the cost that it'd take to win the ekblad bidding war. take him out of florida and his flaws become a lot more apparent.

as for knies… he's a good player, but offer sheeting him would require:

1. him agreeing to sign here
2. the leafs not matching

unless it's in the "four first round picks" tier, there's simply no way the leafs don't match the offer sheet. and that would be $11.7m AAV.

either the jackets actually offer above $11.7m, or they go six years ($9.75m AAV) or seven ($8.36m) and it gets divided by five. but why would the leafs not simply match either of those contracts?

also knies was awful in that florida series for toronto. if marner and robertson don't get a pass for how they've played lately, why should knies? he was banged up, but so is robertson. and robertson played a more critical role on multiple stars teams that went farther than the leafs did this year.

 

[koteka]

i love voronkov but it's wild how overrated he is in on this board.

I 100% agree.

 

[koteka]

The league ebbs and flows. Right now, big and rough is in with the panthers and Vegas/St Louis before them. But before that, with Tampa and Colorado, it wasn’t.

Size and toughness have been way to go for awhile. The thing about Tampa and Colorado is they had a lot of talent throughout their line up. While Toronto and Edmonton have great forwards, Tampa and Colorado brought really good forwards, Norris-winning 1D, solid depth D, plus Tampa had an awesome goalie. Tampa during their run and Colorado (with a healthy Landeskog) are really well built teams that can win playing a variety of other types of teams. Colorado’s Achilles heal has been goalie and Tampa learned a lesson from us that you need a couple of tougher guys like Blake Coleman or you really will get pushed around.

 

[VT]

i love voronkov but it's wild how overrated he is in on this board. he started this season with 30 points in 34 games. he finished the season with 17 in his last 39. he basically rode a hot streak for the first half of his season and then tailed off hard.

a 47-point season for a 24-year-old wing isn't bad. but jason robertson is only a year older and has averaged 87 points over the last four seasons. he's struggled this postseason (while clearly injured) but the only shortcoming in his game is his footspeed, which… is also voronkov's biggest weakness.


i'd bristle at the cost that it'd take to win the ekblad bidding war. take him out of florida and his flaws become a lot more apparent.

as for knies… he's a good player, but offer sheeting him would require:

1. him agreeing to sign here
2. the leafs not matching

unless it's in the "four first round picks" tier, there's simply no way the leafs don't match the offer sheet. and that would be $11.7m AAV.

either the jackets actually offer above $11.7m, or they go six years ($9.75m AAV) or seven ($8.36m) and it gets divided by five. but why would the leafs not simply match either of those contracts?

also knies was awful in that florida series for toronto. if marner and robertson don't get a pass for how they've played lately, why should knies? he was banged up, but so is robertson. and robertson played a more critical role on multiple stars teams that went farther than the leafs did this year.

Regarding Voronkov, it's not so much about the points as it is about his style of play, his hard play include in front of the net. Besides, this is his 2nd season not only in the NHL, but also in North American hockey.

Knies is a young player, this kind of thing can happen, especially if you play in Toronto. To his price, I must agree... but I can dream...

I don't need Robertson according to this PO, but we need a tough player in the top 6 (Boone is aging and his health issues won't go away that fast) and not another soft player. Ideally we should move Voronkov to the 3rd line and bring in another power forward. And, honestly, I'd love to have Luostarinen on the team, together with Voronkov and Sillinger they could make a great 3rd line. But that's unrealistic.

Ekblad has PO experience, he's a SC winner. Having said that, he's not a soft player. The team could use a defenseman like that. And every defenseman has weaknesses.

 

[614 CBJ]

The league ebbs and flows. Right now, big and rough is in with the panthers and Vegas/St Louis before them. But before that, with Tampa and Colorado, it wasn’t.

Some other play style will come along that takes over for the panthers eventually that people try to replicate. That doesn’t mean we have to try to become the panthers

It's a good point.

That being said, I'd still sign Bennett before Mitch Marner.....8 days a week.

Bennett is going to get paid, at 28 years old he's going to want a 7 year deal likely.

I hope Waddell goes after him if he chooses to leave Florida.

(I have no idea Florida's cap situation and am too lazy to research it)

 

[stevo61]

The league ebbs and flows. Right now, big and rough is in with the panthers and Vegas/St Louis before them. But before that, with Tampa and Colorado, it wasn’t.

Some other play style will come along that takes over for the panthers eventually that people try to replicate. That doesn’t mean we have to try to become the panthers

It's a copy cat league but Tampa didn't get over the hump until Yzerman left and they started spending for more of those guys like Coleman and Goodrow to add to the pure skill of the team.
Colorado had some good grinding players that could get under you skin but also score and did add Manson but yeah they weren't Florida level

 

[majormajor]

i love voronkov but it's wild how overrated he is in on this board. he started this season with 30 points in 34 games. he finished the season with 17 in his last 39. he basically rode a hot streak for the first half of his season and then tailed off hard.

He's got some big problems with his game, no doubt. But you want to talk about upgrading and stacking advantages (was that your phrase?), we have a good chance of getting upgrades and advantages from Voronkov improving. What he does right ought to be tantalizing. A big netfront player who has poise and can make very good passes under pressure. Round out his game and then you have a vital piece of a cup winner.

Size and toughness have been way to go for awhile. The thing about Tampa and Colorado is they had a lot of talent throughout their line up. While Toronto and Edmonton have great forwards, Tampa and Colorado brought really good forwards, Norris-winning 1D, solid depth D, plus Tampa had an awesome goalie. Tampa during their run and Colorado (with a healthy Landeskog) are really well built teams that can win playing a variety of other types of teams. Colorado’s Achilles heal has been goalie and Tampa learned a lesson from us that you need a couple of tougher guys like Blake Coleman or you really will get pushed around.

Yes, Tampa made a lot of changes to get tougher. I'd say they did more than just add a couple tough guys, there was an evolution in playstyle.

 

[3074326]

It's a good point.

That being said, I'd still sign Bennett before Mitch Marner.....8 days a week.

Bennett is going to get paid, at 28 years old he's going to want a 7 year deal likely.

I hope Waddell goes after him if he chooses to leave Florida.

(I have no idea Florida's cap situation and am too lazy to research it)

If I take away my love of the Jackets for a moment, I would also prefer if you guys signed Bennett to a 7 year contract worth potentially $8M+. Dude struggles to hit 50 points. Robertson or Marner would make you guys a lot more scary IMO. Bennett has never scored more than 51 points in a season. Marner and Robertson are closer to superstars than Bennett is to scoring 60 points. Not even close for me.

If CBJ do sign him though, I hope I'm wrong! Bennett has all the makings of a contractual disaster.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

This will be welcome news to most of you

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Yeah no thanks on Orlov. Oof

 

[stevo61]

Yeah no thanks on Orlov. Oof

ooof

 

[Cyclones Rock]

This Carolina debacle could be a great learning moment for our GM. He assembled the team (for the most part) that is getting blown to smithereens by the Florida punks.

Waddell has a great opportunity to dissect his previous actions. There were a lot of good decisions but obviously he missed the boat in some significant ways. He has inherited a very nice core of players in Columbus and with what he is learning from his failures in Carolina, it's my hope that he can build the CBJ and not make some of the same mistakes he made in Carolina.

 

[stevo61]

This Carolina debacle could be a great learning moment for our GM. He assembled the team (for the most part) that is getting blown to smithereens by the Florida punks.

Waddell has a great opportunity to dissect his previous actions. There were a lot of good decisions but obviously he missed the boat in some significant ways. He has inherited a very nice core of players in Columbus and with what he is learning from his failures in Carolina, it's my hope that he can build the CBJ and not make some of the same mistakes he made in Carolina.

Well there is questions of how much he was truely in charge there but I think this recent draft and taking a risk on Lindstrom shows he's either changed his approach or didn't agree with what Carolina had going on.

Also Carolina has 0 toughness in terms of noone to drop the gloves or answer the bell but here he made it priority #1 to sign Olivier (thankful for that). He has stated he tried to acquire Olivier which is also good for us that Jarmo didn't go for it.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Well there is questions of how much he was truely in charge there but I think this recent draft and taking a risk on Lindstrom shows he's either changed his approach or didn't agree with what Carolina had going on.

Also Carolina has 0 toughness in terms of noone to drop the gloves or answer the bell but here he made it priority #1 to sign Olivier (thankful for that). He has stated he tried to acquire Olivier which is also good for us that Jarmo didn't go for it.

Eric Schumacher (author of the blog Pøcke CBJ) suggested recently that CBJ might be trying to construct a team that will be tough to play against. That might be prudent, he also pointed out, given the amount of skill assembled on New Jersey's roster, who are bound to be competitors during roughly the same time span. That is assuming CBJ do take the next step, obviously.