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Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

^^^^^^^^^

So the team will be the same next year... :sarcasm:
Honestly, a defense of

Werenski Ekblad
Provorov Severson
Mateychuk Fabbro

Has a ton of potential .. Severson was not bad last year … he had a horrible, and I mean horrible 2 game stretch , was benched .. and when he came back after 5 games or so of sitting , he played really well. Personally I would prefer an upgrade over Provorov , but Waddell insist he’s our best actual defender , and maybe getting back to playing his natural side , and having an actual goalie that can bail you out when you do make a mistake like Jet showed at the end of the season will make a huge difference ..

Also, looking at the landscape of the NHL , Zito has plucked many so called down assets at the time , and many are key contributors on his current team . To me , it’s good to see Waddell realizes the answer may already be in the room , and rather than shipping Severson out, where he will go on to thrive elsewhere , it’s good to see that he got with Evason and told him Severson is too good of an asset to give up on , and that both Evason and Severson need a reset , and get it fixed for next year . We saw all year , everyone thought Jones was a diminished player , had lost a step etc.. how’s he looking now ?
 
He’s planning on meeting provorov’s agent in person at the combine, yet there’s only been “some talks” with Fabbro.
Well maybe Fabbro's agent is just not going to be there or the schedules just didn't work? Too many assumptions and unknowns. Maybe schedules just don't work out so I'm not reading into it.
 
Waddell always says stuff like this and it makes me wonder what he does all day. Is it that hard to have a meeting with Deano?

Personally I hope he is spending a lot of time looking at defensemen, both for the upcoming draft and guys that could be trade targets or free agent pickups. If he finds us the next Chatfield that would make this team much better. I also would like him to be looking for the next Nikishin.
 
Personally I hope he is spending a lot of time looking at defensemen, both for the upcoming draft and guys that could be trade targets or free agent pickups. If he finds us the next Chatfield that would make this team much better. I also would like him to be looking for the next Nikishin.
So someone we draft and don't see for 4 or 5 years?
 
Honestly, a defense of

Werenski Ekblad
Provorov Severson
Mateychuk Fabbro

Has a ton of potential ..
i'm not a fan, personally.
  1. provorov-severson's been a disaster every time they've tried it
  2. werenski and fabbro work well together, no need to break that up
  3. that part of the roster would become very inflexible – severson still has 6x$6.5m left, and provorov + ekblad are both gonna get more than that. on top of werenski and fabbro's deals.
definitely not opposed to pairing ekblad with mateychuk, for example, but that means there's no use in bringing provorov back.

imo the better route is to find a short-ish term top four LHD partner for severson (which wouldn't be provorov) and then a stable RHD partner for mateychuk on the third pair.

Severson was not bad last year … he had a horrible, and I mean horrible 2 game stretch , was benched .. and when he came back after 5 games or so of sitting , he played really well.
he played poorly for much more than two games, and he was just okay when he came back. focused too much on simplifying his game and (imo) lost a lot of the elements that made his game special. then obviously barely played once guddy came back.

part of his struggles came because he's simply not a match with provorov, who isn't a great problem solver in the d-zone and is prone to making bad decisions with the puck. they both put each other in bad positions, even if evason seemed to ultimately blame severson.

Also, looking at the landscape of the NHL , Zito has plucked many so called down assets at the time , and many are key contributors on his current team .
florida has an uncanny ability to put together a defensive core on the cheap, but it's not necessarily a talent identification thing. part of it is their system (which simplifies things for their d-men) and the bigger part, imo, is how absurdly strong their forward group is.

they are an elite possession team, driven by their forwards, who are great at winning pucks back. makes life a whole lot easier for the defensemen, and their system honestly doesn't ask a whole lot of them, which is why guys like OEL, schmidt and kulikov look great there.

that may cast some doubt on ekblad as a target. i don't think he's a bad player, but he does strike me as one of those defensemen who may fall off HARD after leaving an elite team. like what happened this year with brady skjei.

speaking of, skjei would be a really cheap provorov replacement (and would better fit evason's system) if he was willing to waive his NTC. he was awful this year and nashville has three first rounders. just thinking out loud.
 
Waddell always says stuff like this and it makes me wonder what he does all day. Is it that hard to have a meeting with Deano? It seems odd that he doesn't know about JVR yet.
Any chance that Evason might still be coaching somewhere and hasn't been around much since the end of the season? ;)
 
Fabbro will be back and he'll be on the 2nd pair as he should be. That means we acquired a true top pair guy to play with Zach AND our D is tremendously improved. I think Fabbro and Mateychuk would be a really really good 2nd pair. Doesn't solve the Severson/Gudbranson issue, but maybe they make up the 3rd pair. I know GMDW said a lot that sounds like very little will change, but I don't buy it. I think it's part of some of the game of GM speak. Bobby Mac doesn't seem to think Provorov will be back that the gap is pretty wide.

I happen to wonder if he's a sign and trade candidate to get him his 8 years. That would be interesting and a good use of an asset if you truly don't think he fits the structure. If you aren't signing these guys, there has to be something big on the back end in the works. If you are signing both, there has to be something big in the works to move Severson. Can't roll back the same 6 in my opinion.
 
If both picks are on the table, that means we are either interested in moving up or there could be a bigger trade. If Florida had extended Bennett, I wouldn't be personally opposed to the Lundell-Luostarinen pairing. But it is enough unlikely.



----

We're not moving Severson. He has too big and long a contract. So either the top 4 wouldn't change, and he would play with/replace Gudbranson, or one of the Fabbro-Provorov pairing won't be extended. If the latter, then Provorov is more likely. Although there is still a third option:

Werenski, Fabbro
Provorov, Gudbranson
Mateychuk, Severson

How realistic...
 
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got bored and threw together a couple armchair gm builds with similar parameters but different approaches.

the first one (here) is the obvious "what if marner" scenario.

Screenshot 2025-05-22 at 7.23.47 PM.png

Screenshot 2025-05-22 at 7.23.54 PM.png

  • despite the marner signing, this one actually has a more open cap sheet (both short and long-term)
  • initially considered moving sillinger for kesselring, but saw LAK fans mention that spence could be available, and i think he'd be too good to pass up.
  • didn't plan on breaking up z-fabbro, but don't love the idea of pairing spence with mateychuk (yet) – kept fabbro around as i think he's better than some of the potential mateychuk partners that have been floated here.
  • gave up a huge package for danault + spence. love the fit of danault + jenner on a shutdown line, and signed donato to bring some speed/finishing to that line.
  • did consider swapping donato and voronkov in the lines, as i have concerns about voronkov's footspeed. but reverted as i think he could be in for a big summer
  • expecting to get catch some flak for the chinakhov trade, but imo quick still has a lot in the tank and that's the kind of deal that would incentivize the rangers to move him. would rather bet on quick than the free agents out there.


the second one (here) was the "insane message board" scenario where there's a true one-stop shop.

Screenshot 2025-05-22 at 7.24.50 PM.png

Screenshot 2025-05-22 at 7.24.58 PM.png


  • i don't think rebuilding is in trotz's DNA but if he accepts the reality of the situation, this is about the best he could do to jump-start the process (the NTCs are an obstacle, but this is my armchair GM so who cares)
  • if the goal is to keep 10-23-86 together and up-level the kj-fantilli line, filip forsberg is the absolute best case scenario, so i rolled with that.
  • skjei was overwhelmed in a big role / bad team situation this season but i love him as a fit for the jackets, and waddell knows him well. he's a great NZ stopper + puck mover, really fits their needs better than provorov.
  • saros is expensive but that contract could age well if he rebounds in a better team situation.
  • hartman was a monster under evason in minnesota, and ross colton rules. putting those two guys with jenner forms a crazy good matchup line
  • there was another version of this i did where the jackets took dumba from DAL to pair with mateychuk – i'd like his fit there better than gudbranson but i didn't want to overcomplicate this one more than i already had

at the end of the day this was 1) a fun waste of time and 2) a compelling case for why i'll never be an NHL GM.
 
got bored and threw together a couple armchair gm builds with similar parameters but different approaches.

the first one (here) is the obvious "what if marner" scenario.

View attachment 1040732
View attachment 1040733
  • despite the marner signing, this one actually has a more open cap sheet (both short and long-term)
  • initially considered moving sillinger for kesselring, but saw LAK fans mention that spence could be available, and i think he'd be too good to pass up.
  • didn't plan on breaking up z-fabbro, but don't love the idea of pairing spence with mateychuk (yet) – kept fabbro around as i think he's better than some of the potential mateychuk partners that have been floated here.
  • gave up a huge package for danault + spence. love the fit of danault + jenner on a shutdown line, and signed donato to bring some speed/finishing to that line.
  • did consider swapping donato and voronkov in the lines, as i have concerns about voronkov's footspeed. but reverted as i think he could be in for a big summer
  • expecting to get catch some flak for the chinakhov trade, but imo quick still has a lot in the tank and that's the kind of deal that would incentivize the rangers to move him. would rather bet on quick than the free agents out there.


the second one (here) was the "insane message board" scenario where there's a true one-stop shop.

View attachment 1040734
View attachment 1040735

  • i don't think rebuilding is in trotz's DNA but if he accepts the reality of the situation, this is about the best he could do to jump-start the process (the NTCs are an obstacle, but this is my armchair GM so who cares)
  • if the goal is to keep 10-23-86 together and up-level the kj-fantilli line, filip forsberg is the absolute best case scenario, so i rolled with that.
  • skjei was overwhelmed in a big role / bad team situation this season but i love him as a fit for the jackets, and waddell knows him well. he's a great NZ stopper + puck mover, really fits their needs better than provorov.
  • saros is expensive but that contract could age well if he rebounds in a better team situation.
  • hartman was a monster under evason in minnesota, and ross colton rules. putting those two guys with jenner forms a crazy good matchup line
  • there was another version of this i did where the jackets took dumba from DAL to pair with mateychuk – i'd like his fit there better than gudbranson but i didn't want to overcomplicate this one more than i already had

I've been dreaming of getting Danault on the Blue Jackets for like six years. If that's your hard minutes matchup center, you're not only winning those matchups against the other team's best, you're freeing up Fantilli and Monahan to feast. The only way I see L.A. selling on him though is if they really stumble during the season. They're too good of a team. Spence is good, I like him, I don't think we want a D-group that small though. That's as many sub-6-foot D as the final four playoff clubs have combined.

The big Nashville trade is something that I'm a little iffy on. I could see a Nashville blow-up within the realm of possibility (though again more likely during the season, they'll try to win first). But then we're making big money commitments to all three - 8 years for Saros, 6 more for Skjei, and 5 for Forsberg. It ties our hands. I'd love to get Forsberg, I'm maybe neutral on the Skjei deal, and I'd rather not take on the Saros contract. I think Jet is going to be good, and good enough that we really don't need to spend that much there. I can see how taking on Saros could be part of the price for getting Forsberg, but then you're also spending Sillinger + 3 1sts, isn't that enough?

at the end of the day this was 1) a fun waste of time and 2) a compelling case for why i'll never be an NHL GM.

Well your rosters are outstanding. The only trouble is you play in god mode. It's where I'd like to get our roster to over a few years.
 
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I've been dreaming of getting Danault on the Blue Jackets for like six years. If that's your hard minutes matchup center, you're not only winning those matchups against the other team's best, you're freeing up Fantilli and Monahan to feast. The only way I see L.A. selling on him though is if they really stumble during the season. They're too good of a team. Spence is good, I like him, I don't think we want a D-group that small though. That's as many sub-6-foot D as the final four playoff clubs have combined.

There's a five-years-younger Danault analogue sitting on a bad team right now, just like Danault was wasted on the Habs. Waddell just needs to find him and make the move. Someone born 96-99ish and maybe still in his RFA years. Tomasino might be a great target, as a great skating two-way center, although it's unlikely Pittsburgh lets him go. Kurashev is another one. Zary, maybe, too, but Calgary isn't going to let him go cheap.
 
I've been dreaming of getting Danault on the Blue Jackets for like six years. If that's your hard minutes matchup center, you're not only winning those matchups against the other team's best, you're freeing up Fantilli and Monahan to feast. The only way I see L.A. selling on him though is if they really stumble during the season. They're too good of a team. Spence is good, I like him, I don't think we want a D-group that small though. That's as many sub-6-foot D as the final four playoff clubs have combined.
spence probably makes a lot more sense if fabbro's contract ask goes beyond where the jackets comfort zone. he's excellent at NZ stopping, puck moving and retrievals.

as for the size thing, that definitely is a concern, but carolina's defense has acquitted itself very well this season/postseason (up until running into florida) and they have three guys who are 5'11 in gostisbehere, walker and orlov.

there could be a version of this d-core that gives up a bit of size/crease-clearing ability in exchange for ice coverage, puck moving and NZ defense. evason had success with spurgeon in MIN. it'd also fit the way evason rolls his lines – the #6 guy rarely sees the ice, so they could use that spot to get someone who is big and mean for the PK.


The big Nashville trade is something that I'm a little iffy on.
reasonable take. that trade is, frankly, the most insane thing i have ever posted.

But then we're making big money commitments to all three - 8 years for Saros, 6 more for Skjei, and 5 for Forsberg. It ties our hands. I'd love to get Forsberg, I'm maybe neutral on the Skjei deal, and I'd rather not take on the Saros contract.
also very fair. the long-term cap sheet on that one looked alright to me (wouldn't have issues filling in extensions for kj, marchenko and mateychuk) although in the long-run they may have to take a more frugal/moneyball-type approach to filling out the roster at the fringes.

i actually initially thought about a skjei-severson swap. they have the same length remaining, both struggled last year, and severson is slightly cheaper while waddell has familiarity with skjei. figured nashville would probably be more motivated to move off of the contract entirely, though.
I think Jet is going to be good, and good enough that we really don't need to spend that much there. I can see how taking on Saros could be part of the price for getting Forsberg, but then you're also spending Sillinger + 3 1sts, isn't that enough?
also fair – the puckpedia folks are saying it's a huge underpay from the jackets but it all depends on how you view the saros contract.

if there's one thing don waddell loves, though, it's having an established veteran goalie. jet's an exciting player – i certainly agree that he's earned a look – but given how long it took them to give him a shot this season it sure makes me wonder if they'll go after one of the big-ticket goalies on rebuilding teams.

there are six goalies who fit that bill (gibson, swayman, sheshterkin, sorokin, saros, demko) – i don't think either of the NY guys get moved, and demko's injuries worry me. there's not really a middle class of goalies who could come share the net with jet outside of jake allen, and i think they'll have a ton of competition to sign him.

There's a five-years-younger Danault analogue sitting on a bad team right now, just like Danault was wasted on the Habs. Waddell just needs to find him and make the move. Someone born 96-99ish and maybe still in his RFA years. Tomasino might be a great target, as a great skating two-way center, although it's unlikely Pittsburgh lets him go. Kurashev is another one. Zary, maybe, too, but Calgary isn't going to let him go cheap.
the guys you mentioned make sense – i'd add poehling to that list too. also wonder how krebs would look outside of buffalo.

another guy who really sticks out for me given his team's cap situation is maverik bourque. graded out well defensively, still very young, and is offer sheet eligible. i assume he'll be in the 2nd round pick tier for an offer sheet, maybe dallas would prefer to make a trade instead and control the return.
 
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I've advocated for going after Bennett, but a $10+MM AAV for him is like the $14+MM AAV for Marner. I want neither. This is further proof of the challenges with UFA. Gotta take care of your own before they can leave to UFA land. Doesn't always work out that way, but man is UFA season brutal. Monahan deal looks better and better every day.

Trades are coming...
 
The NHL and NHLPA have some pretty big expectations on the salary cap jumping the next 3 years. Wouldn't be totally shocked to see teams operate using that info and maybe spend $ that seems crazy now but less so in a couple years.

Minnesota must be a team willing to go crazy for a guy like Bennett no? Apparently have issues with Rossi for his size so Bennett is probably a guy Guerin will go nuts for
 
I've advocated for going after Bennett, but a $10+MM AAV for him is like the $14+MM AAV for Marner. I want neither. This is further proof of the challenges with UFA. Gotta take care of your own before they can leave to UFA land. Doesn't always work out that way, but man is UFA season brutal. Monahan deal looks better and better every day.

Trades are coming...
I want neither, but I'd rather have Bennett at 10m than Boeser at 8m.
 
While the CBJ have Olivier, watching Florida steamroll and intimidate other teams into submission makes me think that Mr. Olivier needs a partner or two in crime. Gudbranson doesn't relish heavy physicality and the roster lacks overall toughness. The CBJ don't play a heavy game. Looks to me like that may become a necessity if Florida should end up winning it all. They flat out intimidate their opponents.

Watching cowards like Roslovic and Robinson play their soft as butter games makes me a bit ill. So glad to see those two off of the CBJ roster.
 
I want neither, but I'd rather have Bennett at 10m than Boeser at 8m.
Sam Bennett is a by product of the team for which he plays. $10 million for him with term? :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

I want a heavier roster but Bennett will be the beneficiary of a weak UFA group and desperate GMs thinking that he's their missing piece. I view him the same way I view Zac Hyman as a 50 goal scorer-complete function of his linemate Connor somebody. He's a 20 goal scorer as Bennett will be a 40 points guy and a diminishing presence as he ages.
 
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Sam Bennett is a by product of the team for which he plays. $10 million for him with term? :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

I want a heavier roster but Bennett will be the beneficiary of a weak UFA group and desperate GMs thinking that he's their missing piece. I view him the same way I view Zac Hyman as a 50 goal scorer-complete function of his linemate Connor somebody. He's a 20 goal scorer as Bennett will be a 40 points guy and a diminishing presence as he ages.
He's not a 10mil player but whether he is 40/50/60 point guy is semi irrelevant. Teams won't be paying him for points he racks up in the regular season, it's for what he does when the game matters. He's an asshole, effective and see's his productivity bump every postseason compared to the regular season.

Someone will pay a lot for that and there will be a lot of risk that comes with it but you know you are getting a guy who steps up instead of a guy who wildts when games get tough
 
He's not a 10mil player but whether he is 40/50/60 point guy is semi irrelevant. Teams won't be paying him for points he racks up in the regular season, it's for what he does when the game matters. He's an asshole, effective and see's his productivity bump every postseason compared to the regular season.

Someone will pay a lot for that and there will be a lot of risk that comes with it but you know you are getting a guy who steps up instead of a guy who wildts when games get tough
He's going to receive and enormous benefit in his price and term from being on the team that he's been on and the weakness of the UFA crop. He's probably gong to go for double what he's really worth.

Yes, his production is very relevant.

He's a complimentary piece at best now. He'll be an anchor halfway through any overpriced 7 year deal.

You want him for 7 years @ $8 or $9 million? The desperate management in Toronto will probably pay him whatever he wants.
 

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