Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[MoeBartoli]

He's a year past scoring 75 pts. I think he might pop back up, though perhaps in spot duty. I've been thinking that JVR and Nyquist would both be ideal veterans to have either in rotation with each other or filling in for injuries. I have no problem having guys like that as the third man on the second line.



And you understood that this is just the summer shopping, where supplies are very limited? I would also prefer to get all our new toys as soon as possible, but if the best one or two pieces come a few months later then what's the big deal?

I’m not sold in Nyquist at this point but am totally with you on keeping JVR.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

And you understood that this is just the summer shopping, where supplies are very limited? I would also prefer to get all our new toys as soon as possible, but if the best one or two pieces come a few months later then what's the big deal?

Yes. Limited in the ways of quantity but not quality. There’s two great fish (Ehlers, marner) out there that we could easily get involved in. Why wait when you don’t have to? That doesn’t mean you get stupid and over spend, there’s a limit to both of them, but if you can get them for a hefty (but fair enough) price, why not?

The “big” deal is teams like to hold onto their pieces as long as possible. When was the first REAL trade this year? Looking at the list, it appears it was Colorado getting Scott Wedgewood in late November almost early December. That was for a backup goalie. Then it was the Jiricek deal (or if you don’t count that, it’s the Trouba deal in December).

The point is, major deals don’t happen usually until near the halfway point of the season. Some players don’t do well when dealt mid year. Look at Rantanen. He didn’t start going until the middle of the first round.

Not saying your thought process is wrong. But we have draft capital to spend this year that we don’t have in October. Or whenever that deal would come. Plus, when dealing for a star you are not only competing with other teams for him, trading major assets, you probably also have to pay them a ton of money (either now or in the future with an extension). Why would I want to do that when there’s two stars in UFA that I can get without trading Lindstrom/insert other prospect here?

FWIW, I am completely fine with adding Nyquist or/and JVR. I just don’t think they should be the “major” additions up front.

 

[Xoggz22]

It’s hard to really project those things in bold. Without getting political, the economists have projected a recession ever since these tariffs started and yet the markets continue to fight off all issues. Maybe they will be right, they probably will, but we know for sure what the cap is going to be for the next 3 years and it’s going up a ton. All we know is the league is doing well, and the cap is linked to league revenue. But if ownership has some insider information that suggests the cap could crash in 3 years, then yeah, proceed with caution. But we’re not privy to that information as fans so until otherwise we should be full steam ahead on adding top end talent if available.

We’ve done enough of the being patient aspect of this rebuild. We shouldn’t just sit on this cap space in hopes of spending it a year or two from now on our own guys. f*** that. If they earn the deals, great. Nobody is advocating for spending 40 million this summer alone in long term deals. I hope Waddell signs Fantilli and Voronkov long term this summer and locks them down at a lower aav.

I would be very disappointed if we were in the top 5 of cap space after this summer. Tolling away at the bottom of league spending and potentially having a set back season next year is a very quick way to see Zach Werenski requesting a trade. He wants to win now. We don’t have the time people seem to think we do.

Who cares where we are with the CAP and space after this Summer? The question should always be, is this team going to get better based on the moves this offseason, not how much we spend. Maybe that's not what you are getting at, but that's how I'm interpreting your recent posts in this thread.

I'm one who hasn't been pushing for Marner and I've seen the passive aggressive jabs from others around "fans" (reading them they appear targeted at some of my posts) not wanting to spend to get better. Don't target the high end UFAs, etc. That's not the case. We all have preferences on how we think we should improve the team, but spending to get near the CAP ceiling isn't a guaranteed recipe for success, especially on UFAs. Spending on the right fits are. I happen to be of the opinion that Marner is not what we need to spend $13MM or $14MM on. That said, I'd love a shot at Bennet or Ehlers. Hell, why not both. Spend there if that's where the improvement up front comes from. I mean adding a guy like Bennet would push me to move a guy like Sillinger for a core, young RD like Willander (just example) or added to a deal for a guy like Macavoy (still my #1 target this off season)

Ultimately, was this year a step or a mirage? We don't know that, but I think most of us would agree that it appears to be a significant step forward for most of this roster. And there appears that there can be more improvement over the next couple years with the building core. I would love a long term Fantilli deal this summer. Sign Voronkov to 5 or longer. If we don't spend on UFAs, I don't see any impact to Werenski. If we don't improve next year...sure, maybe. I guess I'm just drinking the cool aide with this team that the improvement is real and that we'll see another step next year regardless. I also think we will be very active this Summer, but more via trade than UFA additions. I could see one splash and, again, would prefer a guy like Bennet or Ehlers in lieu of Marner. We get Marner? Great. He better earn that deal because it would easily be the biggest in team history and sets the table for future players.

 

[Xoggz22]

Or lots of people assume he will suck here and not be worth the money.

I'm not a proponent of him being a need because we have bigger needs but I'm not going to turn him down if he's an option and we still address those needs.

Also, the biggest complaint I read from anyone one here when it comes to any free agent is the worry about saving cap space for 2-3 years down the road because we might have to pay player X a ton of money. In many of those instances in our history that has not panned out and that player moved along.

As I said, we actually have a good possibility those pan out with players like Fantilli and Marchenko on his next deal. However, we can deal with that when the time comes. UFA does cost a lot but some players might actually be worth it just like we all thought Bob wasn't worth 10 million.

For the record, Bob wasn't worth over $10MM at that time for Columbus. That would not have been a good use of money as I don't think the prospects of this teams trajectory would have changed much with Bob. likely just pushed mediocrity a bit more with an inflated payroll.

 

[Xoggz22]

Maybe for you, but I keep reading “use the cap for a D” when there isn’t a D to use it on. If you’re going to go bargain hunting for the next Fabbro, you’re still going to have a hell of a time getting to the salary cap floor.

Meanwhile there’s 2 high tier forwards on the market that you can splurge on and add to your young and dynamic offense. Last summer the Eagles had a great run game and a good offense, yet they still went out and spent top dollar on Saquon Barkley and it took them over the top. Different sport, but I think the example applies.

There is a limit on what I’d spend for Marner (12-13M) but if we want to opt to undercut the market and get Ehlers while everyone chases Marner, I’m completely fine with that too. I do have a sneaky feeling we may get Boeser instead of Marner or Ehlers though, and I’m not sure how I feel about that one.

TLDR, I want us to spend money this summer to improve and not just sit on our hands to spend it on our current players a year or two from now. I’m glad you agree on spending now, but not everyone does. I wish there was a Defenseman worthy of spending top dollar on in the market, but there isn’t one. Maybe we can trade for that guy.

For the record, I think the CAP "spending" on D can easily come in the form of a trade for either a signed asset (again, my dream is Macavoy) or potentially a RFA that would be signed to a bigger deal. I'm in agreement with you there there isn't the big fish for the back end, but there are good players to be had that would improve our backend without spending $14MM on a single one of them. That's my only argument, spending to land a big fish in an area that is secondary just isn't what I'm personally interested in. I'm not against spending now. Hell, I'm advocating using assets instead of just money. That's a double swing.

I think the money gets spent, but it's via trade and lesser big fish in UFA (ie. Ehlers, Boesser or maybe even Bennet)

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Who cares where we are with the CAP and space after this Summer? The question should always be, is this team going to get better based on the moves this offseason, not how much we spend. Maybe that's not what you are getting at, but that's how I'm interpreting your recent posts in this thread.

I care. How many years did we hear from Jarmo that we were going to weaponize our cap space? Heard it for years. Very little delivering, and when he did deliver on it, it lead to our best seasons in franchise history.

Yes you can get better without adding Marner or Ehlers or any other big name high priced guy you can think of. That is true. But it’s not an aggressive way to build your roster and I think, for the first time since the 2019 trade deadline, we should be an aggressive team to get better. Hell they had no intention of adding Johnny when they did, they literally had to be told by Gudbranson to go after him. Be Aggressive, not reckless.

We all have preferences on how we think we should improve the team, but spending to get near the CAP ceiling isn't a guaranteed recipe for success, especially on UFAs. Spending on the right fits are. I happen to be of the opinion that Marner is not what we need to spend $13MM or $14MM on. That said, I'd love a shot at Bennet or Ehlers. Hell, why not both. Spend there if that's where the improvement up front comes from. I mean adding a guy like Bennet would push me to move a guy like Sillinger for a core, young RD like Willander (just example) or added to a deal for a guy like Macavoy (still my #1 target this off season)

I’m not advocating to be a cap team this summer. Quite the opposite. I like your mindset, and ill sign off on both Bennett and Ehlers rather than Marner, however that’s probably well over the 13-14 million threshold we’re talking about with Marner. Which is fine with me. But I don’t even think Bennett goes to market personally. I think he stays in Florida.

Ultimately, was this year a step or a mirage? We don't know that, but I think most of us would agree that it appears to be a significant step forward for most of this roster. And there appears that there can be more improvement over the next couple years with the building core. I would love a long term Fantilli deal this summer. Sign Voronkov to 5 or longer. If we don't spend on UFAs, I don't see any impact to Werenski. If we don't improve next year...sure, maybe. I guess I'm just drinking the cool aide with this team that the improvement is real and that we'll see another step next year regardless. I also think we will be very active this Summer, but more via trade than UFA additions. I could see one splash and, again, would prefer a guy like Bennet or Ehlers in lieu of Marner. We get Marner? Great. He better earn that deal because it would easily be the biggest in team history and sets the table for future players.

Yeah I am very worried about it being a mirage, this is why I want to be aggressive! I think sitting on our hands and cap space is a very quick way to potentially taking step backs like Buffalo and Detroit have in recent years after they barely missed. If that happens, I do worry deeply about the fallout of that (Werenski asking out mostly). I don’t love bringing back the same goalies. But that’s what we’ve been told is likely. So, how do you combat this? With an improved defense (the top priority, which we seem to all agree with) and an improvement up front. Ehlers, Bennett, whatever. I am fine with it. They’re both improvements.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

For the record, Bob wasn't worth over $10MM at that time for Columbus. That would not have been a good use of money as I don't think the prospects of this teams trajectory would have changed much with Bob. likely just pushed mediocrity a bit more with an inflated payroll.

Kind of hard to say that. The direction of this team could have been drastically different today had we paid him 10 million back then.

Florida got a cup out of it and they weren't good back then when he signed.

We've had years of goalie uncertainty and management ostracizing players in contract negotiations.

It all comes down to management decisions and committing to the right players which this team has failed to do under the Jarmo era. Keeping Bob could have had a big butterfly effect on this organization in the years going forward.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

But I don’t even think Bennett goes to market personally. I think he stays in Florida.

take sam bennett out of florida (where he plays with tkachuk and verhaeghe) and he's an $8m+ forward putting up 40 points and getting suspended twice a year.

the same people who complain about marner being an inefficient signing (in terms of contributions vs salary) then say in the next breath that they want an even more inefficient signing in bennett.

if it's just a toughness thing, 1) the jackets already have a lot and 2) there are cheaper ways to add more besides bennett. if it's a "we want guys who perform in the playoffs" thing, let's maybe focus on getting there first.

I don’t love bringing back the same goalies. But that’s what we’ve been told is likely. So, how do you combat this?

this board has put entirely too much stock into waddell's comments about elvis being a blue jacket. there's no way he's back next year.

doesn't feel like an ample goalie market, but luckily for columbus that's a position where year-to-year results are volatile and team-reliant. think about how kuemper, blackwood, gibson, knight and others were perceived this time last year compared to now. the first two guys on that list were cap dumps who immediately turned things around in better situations.

jackets have plenty of targets for similar moves. they could offer an escape hatch for teams that may need to start rebuilding (i.e. saros or swayman) or bet on less established talent (i.e. UPL or one of philly's goalies) to emerge in a better situation the way ullmark did after leaving buffalo, for example.

 

[Ice9]

Not sure what Elvis brings to the table or detracts from the team (if anything) but I’m kinda tired of hearing about him so just turning the page from these years would be really nice.
Fair or unfair who cares, just move on…

 

[stevo61]

Dallas still looks like a potential partner. I just wonder if whoever they trade with they insist on that team taking Dumba aswell

 

[CBJWerenski8]

this board has put entirely too much stock into waddell's comments about elvis being a blue jacket. there's no way he's back next year.

I’ve already explained how Waddell hasn’t exactly been a mystery box since he’s been here. Flat out said he’d only move 4th overall for an impact player and he was trying to get Necas with it, said they’d deal Laine and it would be ideal if it was before camp (and did it before camp), said he’d look to move Jiricek (and did), said he wanted a top 6 forward (didn’t do it but did get Kunin), said he’d keep Olivier, etc

The only time he’s “deceived” the public was when he said he wasn’t a believer in spending big in UFA and then turned around and signed Monahan a day or so later.

With the goalie market being what it is, unless a move comes that nobody expects, it would probably make our situation in net worse if Elvis was bought out/traded.

 

[Misfire Puck]

i get the sentiment here but in practice it just means nothing ever gets done. here's how it plays out:

1. you identify marner as being worth a certain number
2. you won't go above that number in negotiations
3. he signs somewhere else for about $1-2m per year more than you offered

if you're taking this approach with a good player, that's fine. let's say you offer brock boeser $6.5m a year and he signs elsewhere for $8m. you can get creative and find another $6.5m player elsewhere.

but with an elite player? like if a "decent" price is $12m and he's gonna get $13.5m, all you're doing is ensuring you miss out on a player who your own data shows is a top 10-15 player in the league. the $1-2m extra AAV is marginal, you can make up that efficiency elsewhere in the lineup.

I get your point and agree to some extent. This is where it comes down to prof. scouts, coach, inside information etc. If after all info you think player is worth going after, then go. And if it takes 10%-15% overpay to what you think is fair, so be it.

But regarding Marner and the information that I have, I'm not quite sure I want to pay the amount he (and his agent+father) might want. Disclaimer here is that I don't know what he wants but if he wants to get Draisatl money then I'm out.

i can't see seattle moving larsson or new york moving schneider. cernak has a full NTC and doesn't pay state taxes. and while andersson plays big minutes and can throw the body, he's more of a pure puck moving type, plus he'll be up for a huge contract soon.

if you're in the mood for a hockey trade, a sillinger-kesselring swap makes sense. i really like the player – may be a bit risky as a mateychuk partner, but all the traits are there.

Yeah I was pretty much just throwing names for the sake of conversation.

i get the sense that the jackets will end up getting a top four LHD rather than a RHD. it just gives them some more options (like mateychuk on his off-side or severson in the top four) and there's more of a market.

This is what I fear will happen. I know that I'm overvaluing RD's being RH but at the same time I think some ppl are undervaluing it. I just don't want situation where you have LHD playing RD and you get say 80% effectiveness out of that player. Ofc if said LHD is fine playing either side and the results are the same, then no problem. But generally there is a reason why RD's are RH.
And if they would find LHD that would work with Severson and actually make that pair worthy of 2nd pair minutes, that would be great. Maybe just not optimal for my taste.

 

[Misfire Puck]

Talking about Bennett, if he becomes available, I wonder if we could have sneaky insider change because of Monahan. They spend 5+ years together in Calgary but don't know how good friends they are.

Not interested paying 8m or something like that but say 6,5m and I'm thinking about it.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Talking about Bennett, if he becomes available, I wonder if we could have sneaky insider change because of Monahan. They spend 5+ years together in Calgary but don't know how good friends they are.

Not interested paying 8m or something like that but say 6,5m and I'm thinking about it.

He just had a 66 point season at the age of 28. 6.5 doesn’t even get him to pick the phone up if he hits the market.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

With the goalie market being what it is, unless a move comes that nobody expects, it would probably make our situation in net worse if Elvis was bought out/traded.

i get that he's been direct about things, but the comment was literally "as of now, we haven't talked about [a buyout]" which is different than saying "we are not changing the goaltender position"

the "as of now" part of that literally meant mid-april, before the playoffs started, when half the league was still playing. two months before the buyout window for teams to get eliminated and the goaltender market to shift.

so, one reasonable way to interpret don's comments is that they aren't going to consider a buyout until they've exhausted all other options. it's also a professional way to go about it, since it gives the player two months of peace before a buyout would actually happen.

 

[Misfire Puck]

He just had a 66 point season at the age of 28. 6.5 doesn’t even get him to pick the phone up if he hits the market.

51 point season + 10 in the playoffs so far.

 

[Xoggz22]

take sam bennett out of florida (where he plays with tkachuk and verhaeghe) and he's an $8m+ forward putting up 40 points and getting suspended twice a year.

the same people who complain about marner being an inefficient signing (in terms of contributions vs salary) then say in the next breath that they want an even more inefficient signing in bennett.

Since this appears directed at me... maybe take a look at Bennett's performance in the playoffs and his overall game. I'm not looking just at points, but his overall game is one that makes Florida better and he sure looks like a playoff performer to me. You can pull the stats and maybe you'll provide the GF% or whatever else, but 32 G and 66 pts in 97 games is pretty good to me. Especially for his role...and watching him play...yeah he's on the border of legal sometimes, but he's all in. Just like Olivier. I want more of that on this team and someone that doesn't fade in the tough games.

Don't get me wrong, I still want the D addressed first and would hope they make those moves prior to any possible UFA season opening foray. As mentioned by CBJW, he's unlikely to hit the market, but I would have no issue adding him.

 

[ratbid]

Hey guys, coming in from the Vancouver boards and wondering what's happening with Voronkov. Obviously a fantastic and unique player which I suspect every fan wants to keep, but I was curious that there's so little news on the contract front for him.

Any insight on this?

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Hey guys, coming in from the Vancouver boards and wondering what's happening with Voronkov. Obviously a fantastic and unique player which I suspect every fan wants to keep, but I was curious that there's so little news on the contract front for him.

Any insight on this?

There is no hurry to get anything done since he is RFA. I don't think it will be an issue to get it done unless the value gap ends up being wide where his agent thinks he should be paid more than he's worth. I think Columbus will pay him appropriately but I think he's still got some conditioning work to be done and I wish he'd play a bit more physically.

 

[stevo61]

Hey guys, coming in from the Vancouver boards and wondering what's happening with Voronkov. Obviously a fantastic and unique player which I suspect every fan wants to keep, but I was curious that there's so little news on the contract front for him.

Any insight on this?

It's may and he's an RFA, we probably won't know too much for awhile. Johnson and Marchenko signed late July last year

 

[ColumbusTrill]

Talking about Bennett, if he becomes available, I wonder if we could have sneaky insider change because of Monahan. They spend 5+ years together in Calgary but don't know how good friends they are.

Not interested paying 8m or something like that but say 6,5m and I'm thinking about it.

I’d be all in on him. As I’ve said before we need more assholes on the ice. Plus his playoff experience trumps anything we have. Would be huge to have in the room as he hopefully are in the postseason next year

 

[CBJWerenski8]

i get that he's been direct about things, but the comment was literally "as of now, we haven't talked about [a buyout]" which is different than saying "we are not changing the goaltender position"

the "as of now" part of that literally meant mid-april, before the playoffs started, when half the league was still playing. two months before the buyout window for teams to get eliminated and the goaltender market to shift.

so, one reasonable way to interpret don's comments is that they aren't going to consider a buyout until they've exhausted all other options. it's also a professional way to go about it, since it gives the player two months of peace before a buyout would actually happen.

There’s way more interpretation with Waddell’s words with Elvis than he gave with Severson. I can agree there. I just don’t think it’s going to happen personally, especially with the goalie market being what it is.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Since this appears directed at me...

not directed at you! bennett's name is coming up everywhere and i was responding to the overall sentiment i've seen rather than about a specific commenter.

maybe take a look at Bennett's performance in the playoffs and his overall game. I'm not looking just at points, but his overall game is one that makes Florida better and he sure looks like a playoff performer to me.

he is a very good playoff performer. i don't think he's a bad player by any means.

but he is linemate-dependent and isn't even a top three defensive center on his own team (barkov, reinhart, lundell, arguably luostarinen). in fact, his defensive metrics are… not good.

i want the jackets to upgrade the 3C spot because sillinger, while obviously talented and tough, is not an effective defensive center, and doesn't really elevate his linemates. sam bennett is the exact same kind of player, albeit more effective, but much older and is set to cost about 4x as much against the cap.

my strong preference would be to instead trade for ross colton, who will cost half as much, is similarly effective, and fits their needs better.

You can pull the stats and maybe you'll provide the GF% or whatever else, but 32 G and 66 pts in 97 games is pretty good to me. Especially for his role..

his net rating on the athletic is +4, which is good, but significantly behind his two linemates in verhaeghe (+8) and tkachuk (+18). that +4 carries a $5.5m market value, which is way under what he's going to get if he leaves florida.

that same model paints him as a negative-value defender on what might be the best defensive team in the league. take that for whatever it's worth.

.and watching him play...yeah he's on the border of legal sometimes, but he's all in. Just like Olivier. I want more of that on this team and someone that doesn't fade in the tough games.

the current forward group doesn't exactly lack physicality or compete, but if you're looking to throw money at those areas this summer, why not just go for marchand? he's a better player and brings those same elements, but instead of asking for seven years he's going to want two.

Don't get me wrong, I still want the D addressed first and would hope they make those moves prior to any possible UFA season opening foray.

imo the order of moves doesn't really matter – they have five months – so long as they get all of the moves done. they have enough assets and cap room to improve all three position groups.

 

[majormajor]

Yes. Limited in the ways of quantity but not quality. There’s two great fish (Ehlers, marner) out there that we could easily get involved in. Why wait when you don’t have to? That doesn’t mean you get stupid and over spend, there’s a limit to both of them, but if you can get them for a hefty (but fair enough) price, why not?

That's just two guys though. And though we should make offers, we shouldn't try and win on making the highest offer there, there are clubs out there that scored half as much and will be very desperate to land a top forward. Then I think the guys becoming available over the year will actually be better quality targets for us. And we should be willing to trade assets for pieces that fit what we need.

The “big” deal is teams like to hold onto their pieces as long as possible. When was the first REAL trade this year? Looking at the list, it appears it was Colorado getting Scott Wedgewood in late November almost early December. That was for a backup goalie. Then it was the Jiricek deal (or if you don’t count that, it’s the Trouba deal in December).

That's true, we'd probably be getting someone around mid-season or later, based on the way things usually go. It's a wait. You think we fall out of the playoff picture if we wait through the first half of the season?

FWIW, I am completely fine with adding Nyquist or/and JVR. I just don’t think they should be the “major” additions up front.

How would you characterize what the issues with our forward group were this past season?

They obviously scored more than anyone else at 5v5. #1 in the league. My one big complaint is that they did so much of it on the rush, and it's the cycle game where the playoff scoring usually comes from. Are Marner and Ehlers going to help that much on the cycle?

 

[majormajor]

For the record, I think the CAP "spending" on D can easily come in the form of a trade for either a signed asset (again, my dream is Macavoy) or potentially a RFA that would be signed to a bigger deal. I'm in agreement with you there there isn't the big fish for the back end, but there are good players to be had that would improve our backend without spending $14MM on a single one of them. That's my only argument, spending to land a big fish in an area that is secondary just isn't what I'm personally interested in. I'm not against spending now. Hell, I'm advocating using assets instead of just money. That's a double swing.

I think the money gets spent, but it's via trade and lesser big fish in UFA (ie. Ehlers, Boesser or maybe even Bennet)

I seriously wonder if McAvoy might become available during the season next year. As I've been saying, it's hard to imagine the Bruins selling this summer but not too hard to imagine them struggling badly during the season and then being forced to sell off. He's got a Team USA D teammate here he might want to play with.

jackets have plenty of targets for similar moves. they could offer an escape hatch for teams that may need to start rebuilding (i.e. saros or swayman) or bet on less established talent (i.e. UPL or one of philly's goalies) to emerge in a better situation the way ullmark did after leaving buffalo, for example.

When I went through the list of teams that might be forced to rebuild at some point next season, several of the clubs have high profile goalies with big contracts. Sorokin, Shesterkin, Saros, Swayman, etc... I'm a believer in some of those guys, particular Sorokin and Shesterkin, but I also believe that Jet Greaves has high upside and is maybe ready to be a #1. I'd like to run with Jet and see where that goes.

the current forward group doesn't exactly lack physicality or compete, but if you're looking to throw money at those areas this summer, why not just go for marchand? he's a better player and brings those same elements, but instead of asking for seven years he's going to want two.

The case for us making a strong offer to Marchand is very good. We need what he has to teach and provide on the ice and we are in a great position to make a short term overpay. It's just not that realistic that he would go to a team this young, so I'm not going to get too far into it.