Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[cbjthrowaway]

He did say that, and then he immediately went out and bought Sean Monahan in what most people said at the time (me included) was a bad overpay.

at the time, the athletic graded this as a C- signing and said "It’s simply a lot of money and a lot of term for a complementary piece. If nothing else, the term should’ve driven down the AAV a bit."

the athletic's model then graded his contributions this season as being worth $11.7 million, more than 2x his $5.5m AAV. so… guess that makes up for the term thing, lol

He was after a top 6 forward all year, especially when the injuries happened. I truly believe he’s going to be very active to adding up front as well as On D.

he also mentioned how they made progress at the deadline laying the foundation for some summer moves. which i'm choosing to interpret as "we wanted to see where our draft picks fall before moving one of them for jared mccann"

 

[GoJackets1]

this is exactly what folks said about the guy in your profile pic

This is why the attitude about Marner is so weird to me. He's got more playoff experience than Johnny had and better PPG. Sure he'd be more expensive than Johnny but I truly don't understand being vehemently against adding a guy like that. We have a lot of guys that can score goals, we could definitely use a 100 point playmaker.

The softness may be an issue sure, but it's exacerbated by the fact that the Leafs whole core plays like that. If Marner plays on a team without that problem, then he's just one guy like that. Or, maybe he plays differently and less soft!

 

[Misfire Puck]

I would make a pitch for Marner but at decent price and I'm sure some other team would top that offer.

But to address greater need, RD, who are there to target? Andersson? One of Utah's rd's (Durzi, Marino, Kesselring)? One of NJ's? Larsson? Pulock? Schneider? Cernak? McAvoy is pipedream of mine but not happening.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

this is exactly what folks said about the guy in your profile pic

JGs playoff numbers were nothing to write home about.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I wonder if Seattle will make a pitch for Marner. The owner can't be happy with how things are going compared to their expansion brothers. Washington is also a no sales tax state like Texas and Florida so the main boards content on here will be something to see.

Didn't even consider them as a landing spot.

He'd be perfect for a team like that. He'd re-inject some enthusiasm into the franchise.

My guesses for his likely landing spot would be Seattle, Utah, Chicago, San Jose or Buffalo. A good team wouldn't need to roll the dice on his 70 game playoff sample being attributable to playing in Toronto. I doubt GMDW will tender an offer. He probably won't even kick the tires.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Now even me as a “we should go after Marner” guy thinks we shouldn’t go above 13. I know Pierre is just spitballing but there is definitely a limit to how far I’d stretch for him.

Also to pivot the conversation, I want to bring up this tweet from a Vancouver radio show in January:



Just something to keep in mind as it appears he’s going to UFA.

 

[majormajor]

On D, I keep reading on here that the type of D we need aren’t hard to acquire. If true, that’s good, but that also feeds into attempting a big time addition up front. If we can get said defensemen (multiple, since I’m starting to doubt Fabbro and Provorov are coming back) pretty easily and relatively cost efficient.

If we're opportunistic then yes I think we can get our most important upgrades (shutdown D) without giving up top assets. But that's not like going to the shutdown store and buying however much you want whenever you want to. Especially not at RD. It's finding maybe one good trade per year. If we lose Fabbro, I think we are unequivocally f*****. The D group as a whole would likely take a step back from this year.

Adding a Marner/Ehlers/Boeser (who we were linked to at the deadline from some in Vancouver media) doesn’t have to come at the expense of defensive upgrades.

Boeser plays so much like JVR, slow plodding player who can make smart plays if you have other guys get the zone for him. Some similarities to other older slower players like Toffoli - Canucks fans often noted that Boeser was basically just a younger Toffoli in terms of what he brought in different parts of the ice.

So wouldn't it be smarter to just keep JVR? Or sign Nyquist? Or both of them? I understand we have a lot to spend so we could get Boeser, but the competition to sign Boeser is not a competition you want to win. You'll be left with that contract for a long time.

There’s plenty of money to go around this offseason to get a big fish forward, get multiple D, and have plenty left over to sign our kids in the future.

What's your interpretation of this exercise I did a couple pages back?

2027-28 cap projection.

For me it's more like "maybe just enough to sign our kids in the future assuming Marner's contract doesn't raise their demands (a la Tavares) and the league doesn't have any financial issues* that keep the cap from hitting $113m".

* e.g. a recession, or possibly a change in the regulation on sports betting companies.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

More often than not you're handcuffing yourself with an overpaid and underperforming asset for the cost. I do agree with you that they need to be smart. I don't know what that looks like with a guy like Marner. I'd prefer Ehlers who also makes us better (much) and doesn't impact 2-3 years down the road when Fantilli, KJ, Marchy, others? all are either being paid or need to be paid. I guess maybe we worry about it then. Just not my preference for that big fish (Marner).

Here's the thing though.

Most people on this board are araid to spend money on someone with a certain amount of proven success in another city because they "might" not be a success here.

They'd rather hold onto that money to spend 2-3 years down the road to pay someone who "might" never be worth what they wish they will be worth.

There is not a definitive right answer that that varies from player to player.

However, I'm a fan of the saying "wish in one had and sh*t in the other and see which one fills up first."

We have some good players for once who have a good chance of commanding big money in the future but I feel like we address that when the time comes and not be afraid of winning right now. We always look too far down the road. The cap will go up. Trades will happen. Players will come and go. Great teams find a way to figure it out every year.

 

[majormajor]

Here's the thing though.

Most people on this board are araid to spend money on someone with a certain amount of proven success in another city because they "might" not be a success here.

The more common lines of argument we see here against signing Marner presuppose that he would be good here.

The cap will go up. Trades will happen. Players will come and go. Great teams find a way to figure it out every year.

You ever hear that saying about wishing in one hand and so on? I can't quite remember how it goes.

We always look too far down the road.

No we don't. Myopia is almost always the dominant bias.

Most years I'm here beating the drum on getting the best players we can from UFA. I was penciling in Gaudreau when everyone said it was an impossibility. I'm not doing that with Marner because he isn't worth $14m long term to a team that has in-house wingers like KJ and Marchenko and will need help in other areas and in the playoffs.

 

[alphafox]

Now even me as a “we should go after Marner” guy thinks we shouldn’t go above 13. I know Pierre is just spitballing but there is definitely a limit to how far I’d stretch for him.

Also to pivot the conversation, I want to bring up this tweet from a Vancouver radio show in January:



Just something to keep in mind as it appears he’s going to UFA.

Would be an incredible add in my opinion. When healthy Boeser is a legit 1st liner and he would be incredible on a line with either Monahan or Fantilli. It would also allow us more ability to trade out of the forward Depth to secure a major upgrade in Goal or on the Blue line assuming a package centered around a Sillinger and a 1st. A top 9 like this is a legit playoff threat with an upgraded back end.

Vronk-Monahan-Marchy
Boeser-Fantilli-KJ
Chinakov/Jenner-LDBB/Jenner-Olivier/Brindley

 

[CBJWerenski8]

What's your interpretation of this exercise I did a couple pages back?

2027-28 cap projection.

For me it's more like "maybe just enough to sign our kids in the future assuming Marner's contract doesn't raise their demands (a la Tavares) and the league doesn't have any financial issues* that keep the cap from hitting $113m".

* e.g. a recession, or possibly a change in the regulation on sports betting companies.

It’s hard to really project those things in bold. Without getting political, the economists have projected a recession ever since these tariffs started and yet the markets continue to fight off all issues. Maybe they will be right, they probably will, but we know for sure what the cap is going to be for the next 3 years and it’s going up a ton. All we know is the league is doing well, and the cap is linked to league revenue. But if ownership has some insider information that suggests the cap could crash in 3 years, then yeah, proceed with caution. But we’re not privy to that information as fans so until otherwise we should be full steam ahead on adding top end talent if available.

We’ve done enough of the being patient aspect of this rebuild. We shouldn’t just sit on this cap space in hopes of spending it a year or two from now on our own guys. f*** that. If they earn the deals, great. Nobody is advocating for spending 40 million this summer alone in long term deals. I hope Waddell signs Fantilli and Voronkov long term this summer and locks them down at a lower aav.

I would be very disappointed if we were in the top 5 of cap space after this summer. Tolling away at the bottom of league spending and potentially having a set back season next year is a very quick way to see Zach Werenski requesting a trade. He wants to win now. We don’t have the time people seem to think we do.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I would make a pitch for Marner but at decent price and I'm sure some other team would top that offer.

i get the sentiment here but in practice it just means nothing ever gets done. here's how it plays out:

1. you identify marner as being worth a certain number
2. you won't go above that number in negotiations
3. he signs somewhere else for about $1-2m per year more than you offered

if you're taking this approach with a good player, that's fine. let's say you offer brock boeser $6.5m a year and he signs elsewhere for $8m. you can get creative and find another $6.5m player elsewhere.

but with an elite player? like if a "decent" price is $12m and he's gonna get $13.5m, all you're doing is ensuring you miss out on a player who your own data shows is a top 10-15 player in the league. the $1-2m extra AAV is marginal, you can make up that efficiency elsewhere in the lineup.

in the jackets case, it's really easy to make that up. they have guys on rookie/bridge deals, the cap is set to go up, and their problem contracts aren't that bad (elvis/gudbranson come off the books soon and severson might be able to be moved).

contract efficiency in the aggregate is more important than absolute contract efficiency. maximizing the production from a top-line roster slot has a bigger impact than having an underpaid third line guy playing on a fourth line.

case in point: florida's a wagon, and their cap sheet is efficient, but they still have some (arguably) inefficient contracts on the book in bobrovsky, verhaeghe and jones. same story for dallas and edmonton.

when the top of your lineup absolutely kicks ass, you can live with having some dudes who get too much money. you just need to make up for it by having guys outperform their contracts elsewhere.

But to address greater need, RD, who are there to target? Andersson? One of Utah's rd's (Durzi, Marino, Kesselring)? One of NJ's? Larsson? Pulock? Schneider? Cernak? McAvoy is pipedream of mine but not happening.

i can't see seattle moving larsson or new york moving schneider. cernak has a full NTC and doesn't pay state taxes. and while andersson plays big minutes and can throw the body, he's more of a pure puck moving type, plus he'll be up for a huge contract soon.

if you're in the mood for a hockey trade, a sillinger-kesselring swap makes sense. i really like the player – may be a bit risky as a mateychuk partner, but all the traits are there.

i get the sense that the jackets will end up getting a top four LHD rather than a RHD. it just gives them some more options (like mateychuk on his off-side or severson in the top four) and there's more of a market.

 

[majormajor]

It’s hard to really project those things in bold. Without getting political, the economists have projected a recession ever since these tariffs started and yet the markets continue to fight off all issues. Maybe they will be right, they probably will, but we know for sure what the cap is going to be for the next 3 years and it’s going up a ton. All we know is the league is doing well, and the cap is linked to league revenue. But if ownership has some insider information that suggests the cap could crash in 3 years, then yeah, proceed with caution. But we’re not privy to that information as fans so until otherwise we should be full steam ahead on adding top end talent if available.

Most economists know that we collectively aren't good at knowing when a recession might start. If we were good at that we'd all be rich. When people ask me what my professional opinion is, all I say is "maybe, the fundamentals are bad". Markets haven't stomached tariffs, more like they've tanked when tariffs are put in place and recovered when tariffs are removed. And it's all changing day by day, folks are still waiting to see what happens next before they make any big decisions.

We’ve done enough of the being patient aspect of this rebuild. We shouldn’t just sit on this cap space in hopes of spending it a year or two from now on our own guys. f*** that. If they earn the deals, great. Nobody is advocating for spending 40 million this summer alone in long term deals. I hope Waddell signs Fantilli and Voronkov long term this summer and locks them down at a lower aav.

I would be very disappointed if we were in the top 5 of cap space after this summer. Tolling away at the bottom of league spending and potentially having a set back season next year is a very quick way to see Zach Werenski requesting a trade. He wants to win now. We don’t have the time people seem to think we do.

I'm not advocating patience. I hope they go for it next year by adding shutdown D-men and playoff type veterans who can help guide our group on a long run to the cup. There's just no place in that plan for paying Mitch Marner $13m or $14m per, it has nothing to do with patience.

 

[punk_o_holic]

Any thoughts on Aaron Ekblad? Is he still injury prone? Looked like he was healthy this year but he did have that 20 game suspension. Does he stay in Florida but I'm not sure they have the cap or would want to use the cap on him.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

The more common lines of argument we see here against signing Marner presuppose that he would be good here.



You ever hear that saying about wishing in one hand and so on? I can't quite remember how it goes.



No we don't. Myopia is almost always the dominant bias.

Most years I'm here beating the drum on getting the best players we can from UFA. I was penciling in Gaudreau when everyone said it was an impossibility. I'm not doing that with Marner because he isn't worth $14m long term to a team that has in-house wingers like KJ and Marchenko and will need help in other areas and in the playoffs.

Or lots of people assume he will suck here and not be worth the money.

I'm not a proponent of him being a need because we have bigger needs but I'm not going to turn him down if he's an option and we still address those needs.

Also, the biggest complaint I read from anyone one here when it comes to any free agent is the worry about saving cap space for 2-3 years down the road because we might have to pay player X a ton of money. In many of those instances in our history that has not panned out and that player moved along.

As I said, we actually have a good possibility those pan out with players like Fantilli and Marchenko on his next deal. However, we can deal with that when the time comes. UFA does cost a lot but some players might actually be worth it just like we all thought Bob wasn't worth 10 million.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm not advocating patience. I hope they go for it next year by adding shutdown D-men and playoff type veterans who can help guide our group on a long run to the cup. There's just no place in that plan for paying Mitch Marner $13m or $14m per, it has nothing to do with patience.

Maybe for you, but I keep reading “use the cap for a D” when there isn’t a D to use it on. If you’re going to go bargain hunting for the next Fabbro, you’re still going to have a hell of a time getting to the salary cap floor.

Meanwhile there’s 2 high tier forwards on the market that you can splurge on and add to your young and dynamic offense. Last summer the Eagles had a great run game and a good offense, yet they still went out and spent top dollar on Saquon Barkley and it took them over the top. Different sport, but I think the example applies.

There is a limit on what I’d spend for Marner (12-13M) but if we want to opt to undercut the market and get Ehlers while everyone chases Marner, I’m completely fine with that too. I do have a sneaky feeling we may get Boeser instead of Marner or Ehlers though, and I’m not sure how I feel about that one.

TLDR, I want us to spend money this summer to improve and not just sit on our hands to spend it on our current players a year or two from now. I’m glad you agree on spending now, but not everyone does. I wish there was a Defenseman worthy of spending top dollar on in the market, but there isn’t one. Maybe we can trade for that guy.

 

[majormajor]

Maybe for you, but I keep reading “use the cap for a D” when there isn’t a D to use it on. If you’re going to go bargain hunting for the next Fabbro, you’re still going to have a hell of a time getting to the salary cap floor.

Meanwhile there’s 2 high tier forwards on the market that you can splurge on and add to your young and dynamic offense. Last summer the Eagles had a great run game and a good offense, yet they still went out and spent top dollar on Saquon Barkley and it took them over the top. Different sport, but I think the example applies.

There is a limit on what I’d spend for Marner (12-13M) but if we want to opt to undercut the market and get Ehlers while everyone chases Marner, I’m completely fine with that too. I do have a sneaky feeling we may get Boeser instead of Marner or Ehlers though, and I’m not sure how I feel about that one.

TLDR, I want us to spend money this summer to improve and not just sit on our hands to spend it on our current players a year or two from now. I’m glad you agree on spending now, but not everyone does. I wish there was a Defenseman worthy of spending top dollar on in the market, but there isn’t one. Maybe we can trade for that guy.

The issue at the moment is that there are too many teams that think its time to load up. Great teams that want to keep being a contender, good teams that think now is the time to become a contender, or teams that are done rebuilding, or bad teams that are deluding themselves into thinking that they don't need to rebuild or are done rebuilding. There's all this cap space, everyone's theoretically flexible to make upgrades. So all these clubs bid up the price on everything. A guy like Boeser who couldn't command a 1st at the deadline is going to get like $8.5m x 8 in a trade-sign deal and score 47 pts a year. If there's even one team that's selling off they'll get an insane haul.

A month or two into the season the bubble is going to pop for a lot of these clubs. They will come to reality. And then you'll start to see more and more pieces become available. They will come to reality and the prices will come to reality. And that's when you want to have cap to spend. Whatever you do don't go into this summer thinking you have to spend it right away.

Regarding the cap floor - I just tried it out in puck GM and it's not too hard to get there. I didn't do any big signings, and only one trade acquisition (I wish I could think of another D trade target beyond Pelech lol), and still ended up almost $9m over the cap floor.

If you start from here then you have a lot of cap and assets to use when the in-season trade market opens up. I've been thinking that we shouldn't get too attached to the prospects we select in the first round of this draft. Given the state of the market this summer, we probably can't sell the picks for big upgrades. But during the season I think we can sell the prospects.

 

[majormajor]

Teams that might flounder early and then finally have to sell during the season, along with potential players of interest:

Nashville: Forsberg, O'Reilly, Josi
Seattle: McCann, Schwartz, Larsson
Pittsburgh: ewww
NYR: Panarin, Soucy, K'Andre Miller, Trocheck, etc...
NYI: Pelech, Pulock, Horvat, Barzal, Lee, Pageau, etc...
Boston: McAvoy , Pastrnak, H Lindholm
Vancouver: Garland, Joshua, Sherwood

It's easier to imagine these teams trying to win, failing at it, and then selling, than it is to imagine them choosing to sell off this summer.

 

[koteka]

I've been thinking that we shouldn't get too attached to the prospects we select in the first round of this draft. Given the state of the market this summer, we probably can't sell the picks for big upgrades. But during the season I think we can sell the prospects.

I am with you on this strategy. Imagine the the types of trades we could be discussing now if we had chosen Demidov instead of swinging for the fences with Lindstrom. Demidov, two firsts, and good prospects like LDBB could get the Jackets some serious defensive upgrades. I am against drafting risky injured guys in the upcoming draft because we might need to do some serious trading in the next two years. A downside of drafting Lindstrom that I haven’t seen mentioned is everybody is in wait and see mode with him, while a cost controlled stud Russian wing would have some other GMs drooling.

 

[koteka]

It’s hard to really project those things in bold. Without getting political, the economists have projected a recession ever since these tariffs started and yet the markets continue to fight off all issues.

Unemployment in Ohio has been steadily creeping up.

https://dam.assets.ohio.gov/image/upload/jfs.ohio.gov/RELEASES/Unemployment%202025/OhioUnemploymentRateApril2025.pdf

A lot of the federal people that are out of work are still technically employed - they’ll hit the unemployment numbers in the fall when their paychecks stop.

There are plenty of signs that an economic downturn is coming. The beginning of the year was weird because people brought forward purchase to beat the tariffs. It will be interesting to see what happens when the 2nd quarter numbers start to come out.

 

[majormajor]

Any thoughts on Aaron Ekblad? Is he still injury prone? Looked like he was healthy this year but he did have that 20 game suspension. Does he stay in Florida but I'm not sure they have the cap or would want to use the cap on him.

I've been thinking about it. He'll probably be signing somewhere for 7 years and might not have half that many years left in him. But he's a good player and we need RD. Very unsure about this one.

 

[alphafox]

I've been thinking about it. He'll probably be signing somewhere for 7 years and might not have half that many years left in him. But he's a good player and we need RD. Very unsure about this one.

I'd be willing to overpay to shorten the contract length as I think Florida will let him and Marchand walk to keep Bennett. Given his roughly 50-ish game campaigns each year I suspect he won't be completely breaking the bank and he would give us a veteran cup (potentially back to back cup) winner so you check a few boxes with the upgrade.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

The issue at the moment is that there are too many teams that think its team to load up. Great teams that want to keep being a contender, good teams that think now is the time to become a contender, or teams that are done rebuilding, or bad teams that are deluding themselves into thinking that they don't need to rebuild or are done rebuilding. There's all this cap space, everyone's theoretically flexible to make upgrades. So all these clubs bid up the price on everything. A guy like Boeser who couldn't command a 1st at the deadline is going to get like $8.5m x 8 in a trade-sign deal and score 47 pts a year. If there's even one team that's selling off they'll get an insane haul.

Oh I agree. With the uptick in cap there’s going to be silly spending. Especially for Marner. That’s why I have a limit of 12-13 on where I’d go. But maybe he’d be willing to play ball and take less to go to a spot he wants. That’s not been his history though. Boeser’s next contract scares me, and I do think we’ll be in that bidding.

A month or two into the season the bubble is going to pop for a lot of these clubs. They will come to reality. And then you'll start to see more and more pieces become available. They will come to reality and the prices will come to reality. And that's when you want to have cap to spend. Whatever you do don't go into this summer thinking you have to spend it right away.

Regarding the cap floor - I just tried it out in puck GM and it's not too hard to get there. I didn't do any big signings, and only one trade acquisition (I wish I could think of another D trade target beyond Pelech lol), and still ended up almost $9m over the cap floor.

I like the Pelech idea, and I want to keep Fabbro. But is one move adding to the D enough? Especially with that goaltending.

Up front, adding Nyquist in addition to JVR makes us slower. I know Nyquist brings other important things to the table but he looks cooked offensively. You have him on the second line.

I think your moves are realistic, and maybe what will happen, but I would be pretty disappointed and underwhelmed personally.

 

[koteka]

If people want to overpay for a wing, how about Marchand? Can’t believe I am suggesting it. But 2 or 3 years is not a huge commitment. Might be a good influence. The guy knows how to go all the way to the edge without (usually) crossing it and he is a hard worker.

 

[majormajor]

Up front, adding Nyquist in addition to JVR makes us slower. I know Nyquist brings other important things to the table but he looks cooked offensively. You have him on the second line.

He's a year past scoring 75 pts. I think he might pop back up, though perhaps in spot duty. I've been thinking that JVR and Nyquist would both be ideal veterans to have either in rotation with each other or filling in for injuries. I have no problem having guys like that as the third man on the second line.

I think your moves are realistic, and maybe what will happen, but I would be pretty disappointed and underwhelmed personally.

And you understood that this is just the summer shopping, where supplies are very limited? I would also prefer to get all our new toys as soon as possible, but if the best one or two pieces come a few months later then what's the big deal?