Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[squashmaple]

Well that or we've become the Maple Leafs.

One thing the Jackets will have that the post-2016 Leafs critically have not had was a legit 1D. I think a team can probably do better with three forwards and a defenseman all making 9+ rather than four forwards. The elite defenseman behind the star forwards is why the Lightning and Avalanche have Cups and the Leafs and Oilers (so far) do not. Mo Rielly should have never, ever been put in the position to be a contender's 1D.

putting a pin in the marner discussion to throw out some trade targets who haven't been discussed much here, focusing on a few recently-eliminated western conference teams.

ross colton - center, colorado (2 years left at $4m AAV)

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have really liked the player dating back to his tampa days. good middle six forward, 20 goal/40 point type guy. had very strong defensive metrics this season. natural center, plays with some jam, tons of playoff experience, in his prime (28), two-year rental… lots to like here.​

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obviously center isn't an obvious need for columbus, and colton can play wing, but he'd be an awesome 3C here and a huge upgrade over what sillinger currently brings. that would then free up sillinger to get moved for a big-name defensive upgrade.​

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didn't watch much of colorado in the regular season this year, but it looks like they may have mostly used him on the wing? either way, he'd be a nice add to the roster and wouldn't be too pricy in terms of acquisition cost or salary.​

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charlie coyle, c/rw, colorado (1 year left at $5.25m)

colorado just acquired him, and i thought he was pretty solid in a third line role, but they could probably direct that cap space more efficiently to support the top parts of the roster. he's not what he used to be, but i bring him up as a specific example for a few big reasons:​

1. the jackets forward group really skews LH. he's a righty.
2. he's super versatile – plays center and wing, kills penalties, throws the body, etc.
3. he has a reputation as a great guy in the room, something waddell prioritizes
4. evason overlapped with him in minnesota for a year and has familiarity with the player

in some ways, the justification here is similar to ross colton, except as a pure rental and likely with a lower acquisition cost. could easily build a really tough third line around him and someone like jenner or olivier.​

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nic hague - D, vegas (RFA)

big, mean, young, and played a big role on a cup-winning team. this season his metrics took a big hit, and his deployment wasn't particularly difficult. vegas's defensive core is pretty much all under contract except him, including a young, cheap guy in korczak who looks to be coming along nicely.​

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so i think he could definitely be available. i mentioned malinski above as a second body to add, everyone has their sights set on gavrikov or other name brand guys, but a hague + malinski haul would check a lot of boxes, and could pair together, although i like the idea of putting hague with severson as they're both very good rush defenders.​

These three would be my picks, especially Colton. I am a huge Ross Colton fan.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

That's fair. But perception isn't always true. They've made the playoffs 9 straight seasons and it is a risk to re-do the core when these players are in their prime.

If they are doing it just to do it. It will probably fail. If they are doing it to fill a specific need than it could be a success. Florida blew up their core but got Tkachuk in return and he changed the game for them.

Just letting Marner walk as a UFA doesn't give them a game changer in return. Maybe they have options for a blockbuster that could maybe the team better. Or those moves could blow up in their face and set the team back 5 years or longer during the prime Matthews/Nylander period.

In any event, Toronto is not like Pittsburgh trying to hang on to relevency and be competitive with an old Crosby/Malkin/Letang. I don't think they "need" to blow it up, they just need to make the right moves. If they move on from any of them they need to fill it with a better fit of a replacement,

Additionally, if Marner is part of the "problem" shouldn't we be concerned that he can't be a success without the others in a different market?

Does Marner want to be there though? I feel like there’s:

A) From TML’s perspective: We like the player and we can make the money work, but it just doesn’t seem like it’s working out and maybe would be best to move on; AND

B) From Marner’s perspective: My dream was to be a Leaf and I’ve had some good times here, but the fanbase blames me for everything, it’s extremely stressful, and maybe it’s be best for me to move on.

If only one of those was applicable, then maybe it could work out. Will be tough to overcome both.

 

[Ice9]

Who knows if Marner would want to be here. There’s plenty of guys who have said how nice the area is for a young family so that has to account for something.

I just don’t want to avoid a high end signing because we fear all our young guys are going to be great players and we’ll need to spend all the money on them. That probably ain’t happening.

Be responsible but don’t be afraid to move forward because someone might breakout and need paid.

 

[CBJx614]

Well that or we've become the Maple Leafs.

Making the playoffs and losing in the first round every season would be a huge step forward for the franchise. We'd at least shed our current label

 

[majormajor]

Making the playoffs and losing in the first round every season would be a huge step forward for the franchise. We'd at least shed our current label

We were a goal post away from doing that this year, that's not a huge step forward.

 

[stevo61]

We were a goal post away from doing that this year, that's not a huge step forward.

Eh, depends. Id expect more competition next year for a playoff spot. The NYR should be better Id think, don't know what the NYI will do yet. Maybe 50th times a charm for Buffalo (lawl). I do expect Montreal to drop though

 

[CBJx614]

We were a goal post away from doing that this year, that's not a huge step forward.

One year is different than making the playoffs every year. While not a huge step forward, we need to become a perennial playoff team.

 

[Cowumbus]

MARNER IS NOT WHAT WE NEED

 

[majormajor]

One year is different than making the playoffs every year. While not a huge step forward, we need to become a perennial playoff team.

One decent shutdown pair and an average starting goalie, and we are going to make the playoffs ever single year with this core. I believe in Jet and from the looks of it we can get that shutdown pair without signing a $100m contract or trading away the farm. Do that and beyond making the playoffs you set yourself up for more playoff success than you would with Marner.

The Marner talk has been interesting but it's unlikely. There are teams that don't have the wing talent we do and will be offering $14m or $15m. With the cap increases there are established prestige clubs that have the cap space to add him.

And beyond unlikely it's not our top priority. I hope the FO comes to quick resolution on how to handle Marner and Ehlers - perhaps they think "ok let's offer $11.5m per to Marner and tell him it would be a great fit on a winning team here" - and then spend the bulk of their time figuring out how to get a new shutdown capable second pair.

But first of all extend Fabbro already, we lose Fabbro and our defense is likely worse than it was this year. The most likely explanation of course is that Waddell does things slowly - he got our FAs late, he hired our coach late, etc... Nonetheless it should be the #1 item on our to do list.

 

[CBJx614]

One decent shutdown pair and an average starting goalie, and we are going to make the playoffs ever single year with this core. I believe in Jet and from the looks of it we can get that shutdown pair without signing a $100m contract or trading away the farm. Do that and beyond making the playoffs you set yourself up for more playoff success than you would with Marner.

The Marner talk has been interesting but it's unlikely. There are teams that don't have the wing talent we do and will be offering $14m or $15m. With the cap increases there are established prestige clubs that have the cap space to add him.

And beyond unlikely it's not our top priority. I hope the FO comes to quick resolution on how to handle Marner and Ehlers - perhaps they think "ok let's offer $11.5m per to Marner and tell him it would be a great fit on a winning team here" - and then spend the bulk of their time figuring out how to get a new shutdown capable second pair.

But first of all extend Fabbro already, we lose Fabbro and our defense is likely worse than it was this year. The most likely explanation of course is that Waddell does things slowly - he got our FAs late, he hired our coach late, etc... Nonetheless it should be the #1 item on our to do list.

Oh I agree and think we're one or two smart moves away from being a yearly contender. I do think that Marner gets you there, but I agree also agree with your previous statements about the salary cap becoming an issue with him. I've tried explaining it to some of my friends who are casual fans and they just can't seem to grasp how expensive guys like Fantilli are gonna be on a long term deal. We'll be extremely lucky if we can lock him up long term for less than 7.5-8M/season. But it really all depends on the rising cap.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

MARNER IS NOT WHAT WE NEED

depends on the definition.

if it’s the broad “the team needs to be built to maximize standings points and make the playoffs” then marner fits.

if it’s an open-ended “this team needs to be built to maximize performance over the next decade” it’s hard to argue that there’s another single and attainable move out there that moves the needle more than marner.

if it’s a narrow “this team needs to get better at goal prevention” he still fits, he’s a better defensive forward than anyone we have.

if it’s just “he’s not a defenseman/goalie” then i’d need to point out that signing him doesn’t stop them from plugging those holes, and in fact makes it easier since he’d make it easier to trade a forward, if needed.

but if it’s just a “we need toughness” thing… then we simply disagree. the team is plenty tough as it is, between olivier, gudbranson, jenner, voronkov and others.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I agree with those who feel an upgrade on D and in goal makes us a consistent payoff team. Now if this team is going to spend $13M on a forward, it needs to be a guy who can put he team on their back to go on a deep playoff run.

Has Marner shown he’s that guy? He hasn’t been able to do it with Matthews, Nylander and Tavares so I wouldn’t expect that to change in a Blue Jackets jersey. Short of one of the superstars like Rantonen,McDavid, Draisatl, McKinnon - that level -give me a guy like a Sam Reinhart over Marner to take this team on that run.

 

[koteka]

depends on the definition.

We need to challenge for a Cup.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I agree that we need to improve the defense. You can still do that while pursuing Marner/Ehlers. It’s not a this or that thing.

You can go after one of the big guys in UFA, improve the D, and still have plenty of cap space to keep all the kids + Werenski on new contracts. Quite comfortably too.

Defense is probably going to require trades to fix as the market is very shallow. Two of the top guys are our own guys (and I am starting to grow pessimistic that either Provorov or Fabbro return) and the other is Gavrikov.

Goaltending isn’t going to be touched this summer aside from Tarasov not getting qualified. Greaves and Elvis is the tandem.

 

[majormajor]

We'll be extremely lucky if we can lock him up long term for less than 7.5-8M/season. But it really all depends on the rising cap.

I think we'd be lucky to lock up Fantilli long term at $9m. We'll see if they sign the extension this summer. Does Waddell's slow tendency include player's second contracts? Our only chance to get savings on it is to offer early.

I'll try and do a puck GM cap exercise for 2027-28 later, just to test my thinking on how much space we'll have.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

We need to challenge for a Cup.

and putting a 100 point winger who is over a point per game *this postseason* on a this team runs counter to that how, exactly?

the leafs are closer to winning a stanley cup today (6 of 16 wins) than the jackets have ever been in their franchise history (most was 5)

unless you’ve cooked up a way to get connor mcdavid (zero cups!) there’s not a better player they could realistically acquire to put them on a contending path.

 

[koteka]

and putting a 100 point winger who is over a point per game *this postseason* on a this team runs counter to that how, exactly?

I agree he would help us make the playoffs. He has a pretty good record of doing that. I don’t believe he would help us challenge for a Cup. I would rather use the Mitch Marner money on capable defensemen. Which is what Toronto should have done with one of Mariner’s and Tavares’ contracts. As I have said for years, we need a vision of the type of team we want to build, and then work towards it.

My vision involves centers and defense and limiting how much we spend on wings and left defensemen. If Marner could be a 1C and we could trade another good center prospect with team control for a really good right D, then I might feel differently.

 

[majormajor]

This is a projected lineup for three years from now, which is as far out as you can go in puckpedia.

I haven't made an "armchair GM" type lineup for us in ages. Apparently you can just copy and paste Puckpedia's Puck GM lineups, very convenient.

There is enough cap space here to sign Marner with a couple substitutions. You can downgrade at shutdown pair or 4th line or switch out Sillinger and Voronkov for cheaper players. But my concern is that these dollar figures for Marchenko, Fantilli, and KJ, as insanely inflated as they look here, are going to be even more inflated if you pay Marner a lot more than $11m.

I'm also not fully read up on the cap expectations, there is a significant chance of a recession which could give us a tighter cap than this. Although tariffs are often inflationary which, though not good for standard of living, could keep the dollar figures going up even if there is a recession.

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This is a quick and dirty exercise, but I'll explain some of the assumptions.

- Cayden Lindstrom here might be that guy like Knies who puts up points on his ELC. Or maybe he's just a big man who can play in traffic and retrieve pucks, either way top lines frequently have affordable third wheels like that. Dolzhenkov might also be able to play that big man role.

- Voronkov still has some issues and he can be extended now, so his contract extension might be one of our best deals if he can improve on his endurance. But I'm not sure our FO is willing to commit early on him.

- Sillinger isn't good right now but he figures to improve somewhat and the team loves him so you can assume he'll get paid. I like him on the wing.

- I wanted more veterans, and needed some guys who have a lot of playoff experience, hence JG Pageau. He'll be 35 and at that age you're largely paying by how much injury risk you're willing to take on with the term of the deal.

- It's similar with Pelech (33 here) and Zub (32), who both already have injury issues. That's two excellent shutdown D, our biggest upgrade here. Chris Tanev has managed to keep going despite breaking something almost every year, so I hope they keep going like that. And if/when they miss some time, I really like Richard's chances and Marrelli's chances. And some big guys who are far away now like Ashton and Henricks might be ready by then. Zub is our one big UFA signing here. Pelech is acquired for Severson and Chinakhov. Mateychuk continues in the "Sergachev Role" where he plays 3LD and tops up his minutes next to Werenski.

- I know not everyone is as confident in Greaves but either way this is a reasonable amount to spend on goalies, maybe a little low.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I would rather use the Mitch Marner money on capable defensemen. Which is what Toronto should have done with one of Mariner’s and Tavares’ contracts. As I have said for years, we need a vision of the type of team we want to build, and then work towards it.

There has not been one defenseman available for Mitch Marner money on the market since Pietrangelo.

I would also like to use that money on a defenseman, but there isn’t one. You can’t just hold the cap space in hopes one comes available one day.

We have the pieces necessary to swing a big trade if we want to. We have the money capable of signing a big name if we wanted to. The only big names are at forward, which matches up well with what we have a good stockpile of. You add a big name, Ehlers or Marner, and you can use your surplus to add that defenseman.

 

[Cowumbus]

depends on the definition.

Marner is not worth the money he is going to demand, plain and simple. He’s a great player though. Allocating 13 million dollars to a perimeter, often soft, player is not a good idea. Why would Marner sign here to begin with lmao?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Marner is not worth the money he is going to demand, plain and simple. He’s a great player though. Allocating 13 million dollars to a perimeter, often soft, player is not a good idea. Why would Marner sign here to begin with lmao?

Why wouldn’t he?

1. Young up and coming team.

2. At least knows Werenski from their draft year. Perhaps other friends as well?

3. Close to home so the family can still travel to see him play.

4. He’s got a young family with a newborn. We are a good family city and organization

5. Can offer him more money than just about anyone

6. Less pressured environment

 

[EspenK]

There has not been one defenseman available for Mitch Marner money on the market since Pietrangelo.

I would also like to use that money on a defenseman, but there isn’t one. You can’t just hold the cap space in hopes one comes available one day.

We have the pieces necessary to swing a big trade if we want to. We have the money capable of signing a big name if we wanted to. The only big names are at forward, which matches up well with what we have a good stockpile of. You add a big name, Ehlers or Marner, and you can use your surplus to add that defenseman.

koteka said defensemen. So 2 guys at 5 to 6mm apiece would work. No?

 

[Xoggz22]

I agree that we need to improve the defense. You can still do that while pursuing Marner/Ehlers. It’s not a this or that thing.

You can go after one of the big guys in UFA, improve the D, and still have plenty of cap space to keep all the kids + Werenski on new contracts. Quite comfortably too.

Defense is probably going to require trades to fix as the market is very shallow. Two of the top guys are our own guys (and I am starting to grow pessimistic that either Provorov or Fabbro return) and the other is Gavrikov.

Goaltending isn’t going to be touched this summer aside from Tarasov not getting qualified. Greaves and Elvis is the tandem.

I don't disagree with your post at all. I will point out that Marner and Ehlers are two completely different discussions - at least in my head. If you are paying a player $13MM AAV, for example, I would not expect him to be a complimentary piece but THE piece in the offense. I would expect a lot more from Marner and think he would come in with the expectation that he's a dominant force all year, including when it counts the most. That's the type of player I would want for that type of money. Ehlers would be a great fit as PART of the core and an improvement overall. That would be my preference. Still a big piece and improvement but not one that would be THE guy and fit in with the rest of the group. That's my aversion to Marner. I think it's a mistake to sign a guy to that much when he has shown so little success with an amazing core to drive the Laufs to the promise land. He's a great player, but I don't think he's THE piece that changes the long term of this franchise. I think we have them, they just haven't gotten there yet. Add Ehlers after you focus on a rework from the Goalie and D.

 

[tjcourt6]

absolutely no way the leafs bring back marner. and he was very, very bad tonight.…but i'm absolutely convinced that he's the best possible move for the jackets this summer.

that whole leafs core is mentally broken from repeatedly failing in that pressure-cooker market. and that roster is a mess. every acquisition is an ill-fated attempt to improve the team by adding a specific element they're lacking. in practice, that's looked like giving a lot of term and money to declining name-brand guys of yesteryear, or one-dimensional players who aren't actually good.

by comparison, the jackets have:

• an incredibly strong culture in their room
• a low-pressure media market
• no specter of recent playoff collapses hanging over them
• good, young players
• a bona fide two-way #1 defenseman who can take over games
• big, physical players who actually move the needle (marchy, voronkov, jenner, olivier)
• an identity built around playing north rather than being flashy
• roster and cap flexibility
• a war chest of draft assets + deep prospect pipeline

i don't think waddell wants to play in the big-ticket UFA space but it does genuinely seem like a great fit for marner. i can't imagine him wanting to stay in toronto if they lose this series, and i think they'll have some real pressure to blow up what they can (meaning let him walk).

It's not a super popular opinion among other cbj fans but I truly think this is the elite 1st liner we need to push marchy over that 80 point mark in a season. Marner - Fantilli - Marchenko could be a 100pt scoring line in 1-2 years. Marner plays RW with matthews but earlier in his career + in the juniors he was a LW. We need to spend roughly 18M to hit the cap floor anyways. Yes we still have some signings to do but I would not be surprised to see voro and fabbro get bridge deals while porvorov walks. Provorov was alright this year but still didn't live up to that contract. Analytically he was as defensively good as Lane Hutson. I would love to see us replace him with a big puck eater like a chris tanev type defensive defenseman who can give mateychuk more offensive freedom that he needs.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

koteka said defensemen. So 2 guys at 5 to 6mm apiece would work. No?

The only two defenseman worth over 6mill (equal to Marner money) would be Provorov and Gavrikov. Both who we’ve had before, and who play the same side naturally.