Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Man I think I'm not gonna let myself think that Larkin could be on his way in here. I'll acknowledge that stuff could be happening there, but it seems like too much to ask.

I agree with major though that the defense (-ive zone play as a whole) automatically gets better with him. But even then you'd still need to do something on D.

 

[Ice9]

Zach dangling a big carrot with $$ attached might have some weight with his “ole pal”!

 

[Misfire Puck]

Charlie McAvoy...write it down.

He would be PERFECT fit. Don't think Bruins are going for full rebuild sadly. But if they would be willing to trade him, oh boy...

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Could be. Guy might be retired by the time the Yzerplan is complete

not to mention that it would be extremely funny after years of red wings fans saying that werenski was going to force a trade to join him up there.

 

[Xoggz22]

The defensive side is where Larkin would help us the most.

Is he part of your desired shutdown pair?

 

[majormajor]

Is he part of your desired shutdown pair?

No but since good shutdown D are not that expensive, we don't have to choose between upgrading the defensive ability of the backend and upgrading our two way ability at center. Wads should be looking to do both.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

absolutely no way the leafs bring back marner. and he was very, very bad tonight.…but i'm absolutely convinced that he's the best possible move for the jackets this summer.

that whole leafs core is mentally broken from repeatedly failing in that pressure-cooker market. and that roster is a mess. every acquisition is an ill-fated attempt to improve the team by adding a specific element they're lacking. in practice, that's looked like giving a lot of term and money to declining name-brand guys of yesteryear, or one-dimensional players who aren't actually good.

by comparison, the jackets have:

• an incredibly strong culture in their room
• a low-pressure media market
• no specter of recent playoff collapses hanging over them
• good, young players
• a bona fide two-way #1 defenseman who can take over games
• big, physical players who actually move the needle (marchy, voronkov, jenner, olivier)
• an identity built around playing north rather than being flashy
• roster and cap flexibility
• a war chest of draft assets + deep prospect pipeline

i don't think waddell wants to play in the big-ticket UFA space but it does genuinely seem like a great fit for marner. i can't imagine him wanting to stay in toronto if they lose this series, and i think they'll have some real pressure to blow up what they can (meaning let him walk).

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

absolutely no way the leafs bring back marner. and he was very, very bad tonight.…but i'm absolutely convinced that he's the best possible move for the jackets this summer.

that whole leafs core is mentally broken from repeatedly failing in that pressure-cooker market. and that roster is a mess. every acquisition is an ill-fated attempt to improve the team by adding a specific element they're lacking. in practice, that's looked like giving a lot of term and money to declining name-brand guys of yesteryear, or one-dimensional players who aren't actually good.

by comparison, the jackets have:

• an incredibly strong culture in their room
• a low-pressure media market
• no specter of recent playoff collapses hanging over them
• good, young players
• a bona fide two-way #1 defenseman who can take over games
• big, physical players who actually move the needle (marchy, voronkov, jenner, olivier)
• an identity built around playing north rather than being flashy
• roster and cap flexibility
• a war chest of draft assets + deep prospect pipeline

i don't think waddell wants to play in the big-ticket UFA space but it does genuinely seem like a great fit for marner. i can't imagine him wanting to stay in toronto if they lose this series, and i think they'll have some real pressure to blow up what they can (meaning let him walk).

Counterpoint. They Keep Marner because he's younger and scored 100 points while letting Tavares walk and spend that money on someone else who can help fix their issues.

It's not like Toronto will be hurting with cap issues with the cap going up and moving on from the 11 million Tavares had now that he is 34 and declining.

The Toronto market is what it is but I can't see them blowing up their core and taking multiple steps backwards with Matthews, Marner and Nylander in their prime.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Counterpoint. They Keep Marner because he's younger and scored 100 points while letting Tavares walk and spend that money on someone else who can help fix their issues.

It's not like Toronto will be hurting with cap issues with the cap going up and moving on from the 11 million Tavares had now that he is 34 and declining.

The Toronto market is what it is but I can't see them blowing up their core and taking multiple steps backwards with Matthews, Marner and Nylander in their prime.

the perception is that the core is the problem. imo it has more to do with 1) the pressure of the market and 2) the largely bad moves they've made to support that core.

as you said, letting tavares walk does free up some cap. knies will probably get about $7m of that, maybe more. and then they'd have to go out and find a replacement 2C.

by the time they do that, they'll still have the same problem – a lack of depth, and too many one-dimensional depth players. they have five defensemen with term and NTC protection next year, four of them (rielly, oel, mccabe, carlo) don't move the needle, and the one who does (tanev) is a 35-year-old one-zone player with four years left.

secondary scoring? anything max domi creates offensively, he'll give back on the other end. is bobby mcmann still a 20-goal scorer without tavares? i don't think so.

their entire team is four expensive forwards, a fifth (knies) who is going to get expensive, and a bunch of overpaid depth guys with trade protection. none of their assets are moveable, and the ones that are don't hold much value.

and even if they do figure out a better way and keep marner, i think the weight of the past will still be too heavy.

as it stands, their only avenue for roster change (not necessarily improvement) is to let marner walk, make tavares take a haircut, and try to throw money at more uninspiring mid-market UFAs in a myopic attempt to support this core. it won't work. but running it back is indefensible at this stage.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

the perception is that the core is the problem. imo it has more to do with 1) the pressure of the market and 2) the largely bad moves they've made to support that core.

That's fair. But perception isn't always true. They've made the playoffs 9 straight seasons and it is a risk to re-do the core when these players are in their prime.

If they are doing it just to do it. It will probably fail. If they are doing it to fill a specific need than it could be a success. Florida blew up their core but got Tkachuk in return and he changed the game for them.

Just letting Marner walk as a UFA doesn't give them a game changer in return. Maybe they have options for a blockbuster that could maybe the team better. Or those moves could blow up in their face and set the team back 5 years or longer during the prime Matthews/Nylander period.

In any event, Toronto is not like Pittsburgh trying to hang on to relevency and be competitive with an old Crosby/Malkin/Letang. I don't think they "need" to blow it up, they just need to make the right moves. If they move on from any of them they need to fill it with a better fit of a replacement,

Additionally, if Marner is part of the "problem" shouldn't we be concerned that he can't be a success without the others in a different market?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

That's fair. But perception isn't always true. They've made the playoffs 9 straight seasons and it is a risk to re-do the core when these players are in their prime.

If they are doing it just to do it. It will probably fail. If they are doing it to fill a specific need than it could be a success. Florida blew up their core but got Tkachuk in return and he changed the game for them.

i don't view florida's move as "blowing up" their core – it was about creating efficiency. and it worked.

why give pending UFAs huberdeau and weegar huge contracts that go into their late-30s (paying for decline) when they can move off of those guys and bring in a 25-year-old core player in tkachuk, where you're paying for his absolute best years?

weegar is a dog, but they had no issue creating an elite defensive core after losing him because it meant more opportunity for their bargain-bin pickups (forsling, montour, oel eventually mikkola)

florida understands that it's not just about having the best players, it's about having the best years for your players. case in point, they had OEL on a cheap, short-term deal and he was awesome. toronto saw that and gave him a four-year deal that takes him until he's like 38. florida let him walk and replaced him with a post-buyout nate schmidt, who is 1) better and 2) cheaper in both cost and term.

the leafs have four (!!!) defensemen who are under contract past their age-36 seasons. none of them are particularly good, except for tanev, who is really good at being one-dimensional.

Just letting Marner walk as a UFA doesn't give them a game changer in return. Maybe they have options for a blockbuster that could maybe the team better. Or those moves could blow up in their face and set the team back 5 years or longer during the prime Matthews/Nylander period.

i absolutely agree with this – letting marner walk is a net loss of a game-changing player. there's no replacing him. but if they keep him they have zero flexibility to reshape or improve an already flawed roster. it's a no-win situation.

Additionally, if Marner is part of the "problem" shouldn't we be concerned that he can't be a success without the others in a different market?

i think the problem is two-pronged:

1. the market + repeated failures is a recipe for doom spirals like we're seeing now
2. the supporting cast is ineffective and inflexible

putting marner into a lower pressure market with a better culture and a more varied + flexible roster around him would yield different results.

i don't think he's the problem in toronto, i think the toronto organization has maneuvered themselves into an unfixable situation.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I agree that what Florida did worked for them and Toronto should try to do the same thing if they feel like they need to readjust or blow up the core. (whatever we choose to call it)

I'm just not sure Toronto is in a position to do what Florida did because Marner is so close to UFA. They were in a better position to do so last summer. It ultimately seems like losing Marner has a seriously high probability of taking the team a step backwards. I'm not sure Toronto management is willing to take that risk unless they are confident it will result in a step forward for the team. Florida had that confidence.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

For us Marner people, it appears he is looking to go to UFA.

 

[majormajor]

I agree that what Florida did worked for them and Toronto should try to do the same thing if they feel like they need to readjust or blow up the core. (whatever we choose to call it)

I'm just not sure Toronto is in a position to do what Florida did because Marner is so close to UFA. They were in a better position to do so last summer. It ultimately seems like losing Marner has a seriously high probability of taking the team a step backwards. I'm not sure Toronto management is willing to take that risk unless they are confident it will result in a step forward for the team. Florida had that confidence.

Toronto absolutely would have traded Marner a year or two ago, they knew they needed a new approach for the playoffs but everyone had NMCs.

Edit: Per the above report they asked him to waive the NMC as recently as this trade deadline.

i don't view florida's move as "blowing up" their core – it was about creating efficiency. and it worked.

why give pending UFAs huberdeau and weegar huge contracts that go into their late-30s (paying for decline) when they can move off of those guys and bring in a 25-year-old core player in tkachuk, where you're paying for his absolute best years?

Huberdeau was never Tkachuk when he was his age, and Weegar was a culprit for giveaways in the playoffs. It was not just about age, probably not even mostly about age. They wanted to win in the playoffs so they shifted towards players who were better built for that. I suppose that's a hard thing to say at the same time as you are arguing for acquiring Mitch Marner.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Toronto absolutely would have traded Marner a year or two ago, they knew they needed a new approach for the playoffs but everyone had NMCs.

Edit: Per the above report they asked him to waive the NMC as recently as this trade deadline.



Huberdeau was never Tkachuk when he was his age, and Weegar was a culprit for giveaways in the playoffs. It was not just about age, probably not even mostly about age. They wanted to win in the playoffs so they shifted towards players who were better built for that. I suppose that's a hard thing to say at the same time as you are arguing for acquiring Mitch Marner.

Well, the NMC brings a wrinkle into it but that's a part of the CBA. But if you really want to get out of Toronto, why wouldn't you waive it to go play somewhere else for a couple of months and then control your UFA destination this summer?

 

[majormajor]

I can see Marner helping us become the Leafs, but paying him might get us stuck as the Leafs and prevent us from ever becoming a true contender.

It would give us a ~$13m-$14m forward, at his age more analogous to Tavares on the Leafs where Fantilli, Marchenko, and KJ play the role of Matthews, Nylander, and Marner, and now need to be paid similarly to the older guy they will be outperforming.

 

[majormajor]

Well, the NMC brings a wrinkle into it but that's a part of the CBA. But if you really want to get out of Toronto, why wouldn't you waive it to go play somewhere else for a couple of months and then control your UFA destination this summer?

He has a newborn at home, and I'd imagine wanted one more try with his Leafs teammates.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

He has a newborn at home, and I'd imagine wanted one more try with his Leafs teammates.

Yes. The possibility of playoff success in Toronto would/could have been a significant piece of the decision-making process.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

He has a newborn at home, and I'd imagine wanted one more try with his Leafs teammates.

Possible.

But if he really wants to get paid and raise a family, I hear Columbus can do both of those. I'm just hesitant to know if he can really be "the guy" without Matthews and Nylander. If he can't thats a lot of money to wrap up in him.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

IMO, Marner returning to the Leafs has the same odds as me being prepared to run a marathon in a month. Not happening. He's the easiest piece to "fix" of the rotten core. Just let him go.

I used to want Marner on the CBJ. No more. He's a physically weak perimeter player. His game doesn't elevate at playoff time; it recedes if anything. Comes across as a bit of a prima donna as well. The CBJ led the league in 5v5 goals. They don't need him. Yeah, I get he's a great defensive player, but whenever I start thinking pro Marner to the CBJ, his playoff play/style immediately stops that line of thought.

I look at Marner and Matthews versus McDavid and Draisatl. The Leafs duo lacks the most important characteristic of a Champion; the Edmonton duo does not. I do not believe that Marner or Matthews NEED to win a Stanley Cup. Sure, they'd like to. But they don't need to. Do I know this for certain? Of course not. But I do know what I see and I don't see the evidence of the inner drive of a Champion in Marner. It's crystal clear that McDavid and Draisatl have it.

Hard pass on him for the CBJ. I'm almost certain that GMDW (who may have already built a Cup winner in CAR-we'll see) would not view Marner as the centerpiece of a Championship Team.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Maybe I’m alone on the Marner boat, which is fine, I don’t expect him to come anyway (I think he’ll go to Anaheim personally).

But I’ll put my reasoning out to combat the anti-Marner stuff.

1. Yes, he will be expensive. I think Major said 13Million, and yeah that sounds about right. However, he is only 28 years old. You’ll be getting him his entire prime and more.

2. I do generally think a lot of his issues stem from being in that pressure cooker of a market. He’s not been good this series, but he shoulders most of the blame despite Matthews not scoring a goal all series (to date). I think when he leaves Toronto he will be a better “playoff” player.

3. Us becoming the maple leafs would be a good thing. Look at their regular season success. Yes, they’ve fallen short in the playoffs. But we haven’t even made them in years. We have no idea how our young guys will perform at that level of play yet.

4. Marner would instantly become our best player for the foreseeable future and he wouldn’t cost any asset to acquire. We’d still have plenty of space now and in the future. We could keep the entire young core + Jenner + Werenski and still have money to spend for years to come.

5. The only good offensive right shot we have on this team is marchenko. We need another righty. And Marner would really balance our lines. Also, he’s very good defensively and would help our PK.

Voronkov-Monahan-Marchneko
KJ-Fantilli-Marner
Jenner-Sillinger-Olivier

Is a pretty top notch top 9. With Lindstrom and others still in the wings.

There would be work to do on the defensive end (Pelech maybe for a package of picks/prospects including Chinakhov+LDBB+?) but that’s a hell of a balanced forward group.

Using puckpedia, if we signed Marner (7x13), Voronkov (6x6.5) and Fabbro (4x4.5) you know how much money we still have left to spend this offseason? 17 million

The next offseason? 43 million.

We have plenty of money to keep everyone, add via trades, and also spend if we want to even if we signed Marner.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Huberdeau was never Tkachuk when he was his age, and Weegar was a culprit for giveaways in the playoffs. It was not just about age, probably not even mostly about age.

this is underselling huberdeau by a lot imo. his last four years in florida saw him put up 346 points in 286 games, culminating in his 115-point season. he wasn't a soft skill guy who did damage on the rush, he was one of the best cycle forwards in the league.

i remember watching him years before that when he was like 22 or 23 and was on a line with jagr and barkov and those dudes would put other teams in a blender in the o-zone.

They wanted to win in the playoffs so they shifted towards players who were better built for that.

i mean… they lost a lot of rugged "playoff style" guys that same summer, though. marchment was the big one who they let walk. also acciari and their their two big rentals (giroux and chiarot). the one big personnel move they made that year was the tkachuk trade.

huberdeau and weegar got a combined $18m aav for their age 30-37 seasons. tkachuk got half that for his age 25-32 seasons. better player who is set to age better and cost less, that's a much stronger motivator than "get tougher"

by creating efficiency there (age/window/cap) it freed up funds that they eventually used on things like the reinhart/forsling/verhaeghe extensions, or the marchand/jones trades down the road.

the tkachuk move was the lynchpin to creating the optimal roster construction. it also made them tougher to play against, but they build a sustainable contender on the back of the cap it opened up.

I suppose that's a hard thing to say at the same time as you are arguing for acquiring Mitch Marner.

they're not mutually exclusive sentiments.

i'm not saying florida's key to success is not paying anyone for declining years. they still do that – bob, jones, verhaeghe and reinhart are all signed through their late-30s – just that they were able to lengthen their contention window by consolidating UFA-aged talent into one elite RFA-aged player.

the jackets have high-end RFA aged talent, and prospects coming up behind them. but they also have a 28-year-old #1 defenseman whose game is built on mobility, and a 30-year-old 1C. there should be urgency to take as many bites at the apple as possible.

get there first, then tweak things. that's very much in line with what florida did with the tkachuk trade. extend the window, get your core guys in place, and leverage your roster flexibility to extract value for pennies on the dollar.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Series Talk: Post in thread 'ECSF: (A1)Toronto Maple Leafs vs (A3)Florida Panthers - (Series tied 3-3) Part 2'

May 15, 2025

• Monsieur Miz

• 

Scared of contact. Always has been. Always will be.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Series Talk: Post in thread 'ECSF: (A1)Toronto Maple Leafs vs (A3)Florida Panthers - (Series tied 3-3) Part 2'

May 15, 2025

• Monsieur Miz

• 

Scared of contact. Always has been. Always will be.

obviously this kind of stuff gets amplified under a microscope but i don't think "gets hit a lot" is the good trait that avery is making it out to be here.

he's a smaller finesse winger. the good ones are gifted at avoiding contact. patrick kane was a top player on three stanley cup teams. so was nikita kucherov, and he only hits guys in the head when they're not looking

not saying marner isn't a soft player in the playoffs, but it's not like he's build like a power forward or anything. matthews is and plays even softer. the whole team is charmin soft and it seems to be a collective mental thing based on the market and pressure.

also having a defensive core of one-dimensional old guys is a far bigger problem from a game control standpoint. like, morgan rielly is their #1, he's basically damon severson in terms of on-ice impact.

 

[koteka]

The local radio guys were asking Rimer about a return of Panarin in the offseason. He has one year left at a $11.64 million. He is owed a $7 million bonus and $1 million in salary. Panarin has a NMC so he has the power.

I hadn’t really considered him a target, but offer him the right extension and maybe he waives and comes back. New York clears out cap space and gets a decent return and can target Marner as a Panarin replacement. Two firsts and a prospect would be tempting to the Rags if they have Marner in their sights. I think we might be able to work out a larger trade with New York. We could absorb Kreider’s contract if they want to get rid of him - maybe that lowers the asking price on Panarin and then we retain on Kreider and trade him. Kreider has a $6.5 million cap hit and is owed $5 million.