Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[CBJWerenski8]

Freddy Andersen is also off the board as a potential goalie signing. The list of UFA goalies got weaker and I think the odds of Elvis returning are in the 90% range.

Also been thinking, Cleveland is going to need another goalie. I know Gardner isn’t eligible yet and I know Ivanov isn’t coming over yet. Is it worth signing Tarasov to a 1 year RFA deal (at his QO or whatever) and have him in Cleveland (assuming he gets through waivers)? You won’t get too much better than him on the market for your organizational #3 goalie and he does still have potential.

 

[majormajor]

Freddy Andersen is also off the board as a potential goalie signing. The list of UFA goalies got weaker and I think the odds of Elvis returning are in the 90% range.

Also been thinking, Cleveland is going to need another goalie. I know Gardner isn’t eligible yet and I know Ivanov isn’t coming over yet. Is it worth signing Tarasov to a 1 year RFA deal (at his QO or whatever) and have him in Cleveland (assuming he gets through waivers)? You won’t get too much better than him on the market for your organizational #3 goalie and he does still have potential.

I think if he understands the assignment then yes. The only other issue is the QO is about $1.25m or so, I'm not sure if the club has to pay all of that even if the player is in Cleveland? That might be deemed too much of a luxury.

 

[Xoggz22]

Freddy Andersen is also off the board as a potential goalie signing. The list of UFA goalies got weaker and I think the odds of Elvis returning are in the 90% range.

Also been thinking, Cleveland is going to need another goalie. I know Gardner isn’t eligible yet and I know Ivanov isn’t coming over yet. Is it worth signing Tarasov to a 1 year RFA deal (at his QO or whatever) and have him in Cleveland (assuming he gets through waivers)? You won’t get too much better than him on the market for your organizational #3 goalie and he does still have potential.

I mean he initially refused a short term assignment to Cleveland. I don't see any way he accepts being the third GK. He'll head to Europe - likely the KHL. I think they will want a Vet in Cleveland adn it will be a late Summer signing.

 

[majormajor]

FWIW AHL conditioning assignments are fully optional for players and from what I can tell it's not considered remarkable if they choose not to go down. Tarasov's contract didn't hinge on his willingness to go down. But at this point, his next contract probably would hinge on being willing to play in both leagues, and he might come around to that. Or maybe he'd prefer the KHL route. It's not that obvious to me which route he'll take, he might keep fighting to get back to the NHL.

 

[Spurgeon]

Wild fan checking in.

Completely understandable that you guys would have no interest in moving KJ, but I’m just trying to figure out teams that would make sense for a Rossi trade. Assuming Guerin’s plan is to bring in a cheaper forward that gives them more cap flexibility for a UFA signing, then somebody like KJ makes a lot of sense to me. Especially given the recent trade history between MIN & CBJ.

Do you guys see KJ as completely untouchable or are there more pieces in addition to Rossi that would make sense in a trade?

 

[Youngguns80]

Wild fan checking in.

Completely understandable that you guys would have no interest in moving KJ, but I’m just trying to figure out teams that would make sense for a Rossi trade. Assuming Guerin’s plan is to bring in a cheaper forward that gives them more cap flexibility for a UFA signing, then somebody like KJ makes a lot of sense to me. Especially given the recent trade history between MIN & CBJ.

Do you guys see KJ as completely untouchable or are there more pieces in addition to Rossi that would make sense in a trade?

Untouchable

 

[Spurgeon]

Untouchable

Makes sense, that contract is a beauty during a time period where the cap is going to raise to over $110M.

 

[stevo61]

definitely not available and the team likes Monahan-Fantilli as their top 6 centers with other guys like Sillinger/Jenner/Danforth/Voronkov all able to fill the role or will fill the role in the bottom 6

 

[majormajor]

Makes sense, that contract is a beauty during a time period where the cap is going to raise to over $110M.

The contract is only a short term plus for us, and that only when the team has more cap space than it can use. We consider KJ untouchable because of his upside. He's just getting started.

 

[Spurgeon]

definitely not available and the team likes Monahan-Fantilli as their top 6 centers with other guys like Sillinger/Jenner/Danforth/Voronkov all able to fill the role or will fill the role in the bottom 6

Would someone like Sillinger make sense in a 1-1 trade for Rossi?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Assuming Guerin’s plan is to bring in a cheaper forward that gives them more cap flexibility for a UFA signing, then somebody like KJ makes a lot of sense to me. Especially given the recent trade history between MIN & CBJ.

i suggest you shift your sights toward cole sillinger. one more year left at $2.2m, and just 21 years old. nearly 300 games played already, too.

dean fed him very tough minutes (basically used him as a matchup center) and he struggled in that role. once fantilli hit his stride and monahan came back, sillinger's minutes got easier and he got to be the skill guy on a secondary scoring line. he looked awesome in that role.

despite what the body + compete level would suggest, i think he's more of a scoring line guy with plus physical traits rather than a play-driving shutdown center, and that's why he might be available this summer.

Do you guys see KJ as completely untouchable or are there more pieces in addition to Rossi that would make sense in a trade?

KJ is 22, just scored at a ~70 point pace and has two more years left at $1.8m.

theoretically he's not untouchable but the only way MIN gets him is in a blockbuster for, like, kaprizov.

all that said, i do really like rossi, and despite the center depth chart do think he could fit here (fantilli's rush patterns often resemble a wing more than a center) – seems like there's a solid mutual fit with sillinger even if CBJ's more immediate need is on the blueline.

 

[Youngguns80]

With Noah Dobson in the lineup, it could give Evason and DW a chance to evaluate him as a potential trade target.

I’d also like to see them kick the tires on Tom Willander—he might be ready for part-time NHL duty this season, and we definitely need to inject some youth on the right side of the defense.

It might also be worth exploring a trade for the rights to Isaac Howard. He’s a high-upside winger who looks close to NHL-ready, and it could be a smart alternative to relying solely on the lottery and long-term development through the draft.

 

[stevo61]

Would someone like Sillinger make sense in a 1-1 trade for Rossi?

Maybe but management and the coaches seem to hold Sillinger in pretty high regard and must really believe in the potential so I don't know if they'd be keen on it

 

[majormajor]

dean fed him very tough minutes (basically used him as a matchup center)

What is the proof of this? I know Jody and company talked about it endlessly whenever he was in a matchup role but that seemed to be in only a few of the games.

On the season Cole's zone starts skew offensive at 54%, matchup centers more typically play in their end as the best opponents start in the offensive zone.

It's hard to tell from the opposition log, maybe you'll be able to interpet it better than me. Almost everyone plays less than 50% of their opponent's ice time, because there isn't that much line matching in the regular season. There were only a handful of players that look like Cole was matched with - Bedard and Kurashev in Chicago, Coronato and Sharangovich in Calgary, and Svechnikov in Carolina. And others where he was matched but against weaker opponents - Mangiapane was his most frequent opponent on the Caps, Simon Holmstrom was for the Islanders, Vatrano for the Ducks - perhaps because coaches were trying to get other lines to do the harder matchup work.

Unless there is some evidence I'm missing, this appears to be a myth.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

What is the proof of this? I know Jody and company talked about it endlessly whenever he was in a matchup role but that seemed to be in only a few of the games.

pocke cbj's year-end post got into it in detail right here. specifically this part:

Cole Sillinger continued to get the most difficult matchups against the top competition despite failing to make ground as an all around playdriver. Perhaps this was a mandate to “figure out what we have” from Don Waddell but he certainly didn’t pass the perhaps unfair to a 21 year old challenge. Worth mentioning that Dean Evason sort of always has a center he likes to give heavy competition minutes to, it was Justin Danforth while Sillinger was injured, so this might just be a deployment quirk that Waddell has to account for.​

and this one:

​

As the season wore on, Sillinger’s assignments were reduced by way of Monahan’s taking more, but on the aggregate he took the most difficult, defensive assignments​

another schumaker piece from the last game of the season (here) had a whole section on sillinger and how he seems miscast as a matchup center. said he's best suited as an offensively-focused center and compared him to a bigger, "forecheckier" version of max domi.

Unless there is some evidence I'm missing, this appears to be a myth.

from the same piece:

It’s that spirit that defines the race to single metrics like WAR and why they are generally preferred to simply using points. We could use simple on-ice metrics like CF%, GF% or xGF% but those don’t necessarily factor in more meta influences like coaching deployment, quality of linemates or quality of competition. ​

​

There are some factors, like time on ice, that suggest a coach believes they do things correctly and are deserving of better matchups, which might mean things like “points per game” or “played against the best players” could be appeals to their expert opinions are more correct, but for now we can simply use tools that mathematically filter that information. This is called Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus and it’s one of the best tools we have for evaluating a player while accounting for the quality of their teammates and competition and difficulty of situation.​

 

[koteka]

Do you guys see KJ as completely untouchable or are there more pieces in addition to Rossi that would make sense in a trade?

I don’t see him as completely untouchable, but his bargain contract for the next two years makes him incredibly expensive. What the Jackets need is a really good right D. You have one of those, but he is untouchable on your end. You have a right D who was a high draft pick, but he is a guy we already gave up on, so that won’t go anywhere. I don’t think the Wild and Jackets are good partners for a major trade.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I also don’t see KJ as untouchable but there’s an asterisk to that.

If we can sign a guy like Marner or Ehlers, then I’d be all aboard shopping him for a D upgrade. And if it doesn’t happen, then I’ll just keep my loaded offensive roster and try to improve the D elsewhere throughout the season.

But if that signing doesn’t happen (which I don’t anticipate) then I see no real need to move him unless you’re getting a major piece defensively.

 

[majormajor]

pocke cbj's year-end post got into it in detail right here. specifically this part:

Cole Sillinger continued to get the most difficult matchups against the top competition despite failing to make ground as an all around playdriver. Perhaps this was a mandate to “figure out what we have” from Don Waddell but he certainly didn’t pass the perhaps unfair to a 21 year old challenge. Worth mentioning that Dean Evason sort of always has a center he likes to give heavy competition minutes to, it was Justin Danforth while Sillinger was injured, so this might just be a deployment quirk that Waddell has to account for.​

and this one:

​

As the season wore on, Sillinger’s assignments were reduced by way of Monahan’s taking more, but on the aggregate he took the most difficult, defensive assignments​

another schumaker piece from the last game of the season (here) had a whole section on sillinger and how he seems miscast as a matchup center. said he's best suited as an offensively-focused center and compared him to a bigger, "forecheckier" version of max domi.


from the same piece:

It’s that spirit that defines the race to single metrics like WAR and why they are generally preferred to simply using points. We could use simple on-ice metrics like CF%, GF% or xGF% but those don’t necessarily factor in more meta influences like coaching deployment, quality of linemates or quality of competition. ​

​

There are some factors, like time on ice, that suggest a coach believes they do things correctly and are deserving of better matchups, which might mean things like “points per game” or “played against the best players” could be appeals to their expert opinions are more correct, but for now we can simply use tools that mathematically filter that information. This is called Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus and it’s one of the best tools we have for evaluating a player while accounting for the quality of their teammates and competition and difficulty of situation.​

I like Schumacher's analyses but I think starting the Sillinger analysis with how difficult his matchups were is misleading. He lost his matchups vs everybody, not just vs the opposing topliners. And there's very little difference between his deployment and the average, it looks like a guy who was used as a matchup center only sporadically:

To me it's in myth territory if we're trying to spin this as a guy who was buried by his coach in hard matchup minutes or leaned on heavily in that role.

 

[majormajor]

For me KJ is untouchable.

We need a big shutdown upgrade on D - those are expensive but not that expensive.

 

[tunnelvision]

I think for now KJ is untouchable for Waddell.

Developmentally he had a remarkable season, he proved he's got potential to become a main core player in a SC contender. I believe they very much appreciate his love and determination for the game and the kind of impact he might have on other likely future core guys on the team, like Fantilli and Marchenko. By trading KJ now Waddell could easily upset those guys or at least cause some sort of confusion in the room, which definitely should be avoided considering what they've gone through this year and with previous management, and where they are in the team building process.

However I think it's up in the air whether he'll be considered untouchable a year or two from today. What if he stops growing? What if another young playmaking winger like LDBB has a great offseason and then during the season gets an opportunity in a scoring line and PP, managing to do a lot of the things KJ is capable of doing, and maybe even outperform him in some aspects? And what is he going to look like in playoffs? I don't think Waddell has answers to those yet.

 

[tunnelvision]

I like Schumacher's analyses but I think starting the Sillinger analysis with how difficult his matchups were is misleading. He lost his matchups vs everybody, not just vs the opposing topliners. And there's very little difference between his deployment and the average, it looks like a guy who was used as a matchup center only sporadically:

To me it's in myth territory if we're trying to spin this as a guy who was buried by his coach in hard matchup minutes or leaned on heavily in that role.

I have trouble understanding what those orange-colored bars on top left chart are.

 

[stevo61]

I think for now KJ is untouchable for Waddell.

Developmentally he had a remarkable season, he proved he's got potential to become a main core player in a SC contender. I believe they very much appreciate his love and determination for the game and the kind of impact he might have on other likely future core guys on the team, like Fantilli and Marchenko. By trading KJ now Waddell could easily upset those guys or at least cause some sort of confusion in the room, which definitely should be avoided considering what they've gone through this year and with previous management, and where they are in the team building process.

However I think it's up in the air whether he'll be considered untouchable a year or two from today. What if he stops growing? What if another young playmaking winger like LDBB has a great offseason and then during the season gets an opportunity in a scoring line and PP, managing to do a lot of the things KJ is capable of doing, and maybe even outperform him in some aspects? And what is he going to look like in playoffs? I don't think Waddell has answers to those yet.

What if "insert worry for literally every young player"? I'm sure as hell willing to wait and find out.
What if they traded Marchenko a year before his breakout and he instantly surpassed who he was traded for?

 

[AndBoomGoesTheCannon]

Wild fan checking in.

Completely understandable that you guys would have no interest in moving KJ, but I’m just trying to figure out teams that would make sense for a Rossi trade. Assuming Guerin’s plan is to bring in a cheaper forward that gives them more cap flexibility for a UFA signing, then somebody like KJ makes a lot of sense to me. Especially given the recent trade history between MIN & CBJ.

Do you guys see KJ as completely untouchable or are there more pieces in addition to Rossi that would make sense in a trade?

With DW’s first draft, I’m not sure he would even be interested in an undersized player.

 

[tunnelvision]

What if "insert worry for literally every young player"? I'm sure as hell willing to wait and find out.

That's why I don't like this word and usually get annoyed when people try to proclaim someone untouchable, as if their personal opinion on the player were shared by GMs. Ultimately, can there even be an untouchable player? When I look at the roster, I can see players that might be hard to replace and unlikely to be traded, and then there are guys who are replaceable but can become those player types, and finally, those who are just replaceable.

Very hard to replace and very unlikely to be traded: Werenski

Hard to replace and unlikely to be traded: Monahan, Marchenko, Olivier, Jenner

Could become very hard to replace and is very unlikely to be traded: Fantilli

Could become hard to replace and is unlikely to be traded: KJ, Mateychuk, maybe couple others as well

 

[majormajor]

I have trouble understanding what those orange-colored bars on top left chart are.

I spent five minutes staring at that and couldn't figure it out. The blue bars aren't that obvious either - neither seems to correspond to shared ice time with specific teammates? The distribution is too flat.