Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[tunnelvision]

I think Evason genuinely is open to the idea that Severson will have a chance in camp, clean slate. But I suspect the actual likelihood of that working out is more dependent on Severson himself improving, which I don't expect to happen.

Evason and Waddell might also think that chances of Severson improving enough (with or without the help of new D partner) for their liking are slim, but they're clearly willing to give it a try (unless Waddell is full of crap) instead of trading him in the offseason. Maybe in November it becomes clear that it just doesn't work out, and all parties will come to conclusion that it's better to move on, but until then Severson is a Blue Jacket, and that was my point.

I didn't hear a comment from Evason or Wads about getting a new D partner for Severson or that being the key to fix the issue. Did they say that?

No, that's just my guess. I assume that they think Severson is more likely to look better or good enough when there's a new guy to pair him with.

 

[Xoggz22]

And forwards.

They were shut out 9 times last year and scored 1 goal 7 times. That's 16 losses, half of their losses, where the goalie has to be perfect to win. They need better offense and more consistency up front.

While I'm not necessarily going to disagree with you, I would hope this team learned a ton by playing through meaningful games and recognizing the hard way to win is needed all year. The fact they won 6 straight to close the year, knowing these were the highest pressure games of the season, makes me think there was some learning there. Given the total goals scored, I think this team has enough offense to avoid the type of 16 games you point out. I'm not opposed to continued improvements up front, but I think it's secondary to continuing efforts to improving the back end of the puzzle. It takes 6 on the ice to defend, but the back three are the most critical and I think we feel short there. That's where I want the time and money focused first. If no changes up front, I think this team will continue to score at a good clip (if not even better). Dropping goals against by another 20-30 would be monumental (not easily done, but they can do it with changes)

 

[Xoggz22]

OK... you're the GM. Do you go on a podcast and come out and say Elvis isn't the goalie the club though he was when signed to the long term extension. I don't think he's played well enough to earn that contract so we're going to be looking elsewhere. OR... Do you say, Elvis won more games than he lost for this franchise and he stole X, Y and Z games. He showed tremendous growth and we know we can get more. I have full confidence...

Same scenario for Severson. There isn't a chance he's going to come out and say we're moving these guys. He's going to point to their potential and the good parts even though every other scout and GM in the league sees the same things.

 

[tunnelvision]

OK... you're the GM. Do you go on a podcast and come out and say Elvis isn't the goalie the club though he was when signed to the long term extension. I don't think he's played well enough to earn that contract so we're going to be looking elsewhere. OR... Do you say, Elvis won more games than he lost for this franchise and he stole X, Y and Z games. He showed tremendous growth and we know we can get more. I have full confidence...

Same scenario for Severson. There isn't a chance he's going to come out and say we're moving these guys. He's going to point to their potential and the good parts even though every other scout and GM in the league sees the same things.

Explicitly saying that someone will remain a Blue Jacket is an entirely different level of statement than only pointing out the positives about a player, imo.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

OK... you're the GM. Do you go on a podcast and come out and say Elvis isn't the goalie the club though he was when signed to the long term extension. I don't think he's played well enough to earn that contract so we're going to be looking elsewhere. OR... Do you say, Elvis won more games than he lost for this franchise and he stole X, Y and Z games. He showed tremendous growth and we know we can get more. I have full confidence...

Same scenario for Severson. There isn't a chance he's going to come out and say we're moving these guys. He's going to point to their potential and the good parts even though every other scout and GM in the league sees the same things.

Waddell hasn’t exactly been a mystery box. He’s outwardly said everything he’s wanted to do since he got here.

Fired Vincent, said it was because he couldn’t believe the things he heard that went on last year. Said we needed an experienced hand, tried to hire McLellan, and then hired Evason.

Said (essentially) we were stuck with Elvis last summer because he had no trade value and we couldn’t buy him out. Challenged him to be a better teammate.

Said he was going to keep Olivier.

Said we were going to look at depth additions at the deadline.

So I see what you’re saying, but DW hasn’t exactly been making any moves we haven’t seen coming. So, I tend to believe him when he’s implying that Severson and Elvis are going to be here next year

 

[VT]

This team improved defensively but there are some glaring issues that it will be interesting to see how GMDW resolves. Offensively it was pretty good.

Our goalies have to be near the top of the list for needing improvement. Elvis sv% was .892, tarasov .881, and jet. 938.

There's no way jet can sustain that and goalies are fickle but it seems the ship has sailed on the other two.

The team avg sv% was .903 (thanks to jet) which is a hair higher than league avg this year, but that really does not account for situational changes (backups vs starters, etc). We allowed 254 goals against. If all the goalies played to league avg, that would drop to 244. If we use team avg then it's 235.

That alone likely gets this team into the playoffs.

Other personnel changes are likely but this team is well positioned.

Jenner/Voronkov- Monahan - Marchy
JVR (UFA) - Fantilli - KJ
Jenner/Voronkov - Sillinger - Olivier
ZAR - Danforth - whoever

And finding a spot if Chinakov can get healthy (yes please). That's a dangerous team.

Defense is certainly messier. I'd love to get a 1RD and sign Fabbro to play with Mateychuk but that may be a luxury. If you have a LD depth chart of Werenski - Mateychuk - Provorov you don't have a shutdown but you do have options. As others have pointed out, something has to push with Severson and gudbranson but both looked improved at the end of the year. Basically, I have no idea what they'll do for our D.

It will be an interesting summer regardless, should be fun to watch (unless they don't fix the goalies lol)

Olivier to ZAR and Danforth and maybe try Chinakhov to Sillinger, he has chemistry with Silly and Boone/Dima. But it is a question whether Evason trusts Yegor and how he imagines the third line.

 

[VT]

Evason and Waddell might also think that chances of Severson improving enough (with or without the help of new D partner) for their liking are slim, but they're clearly willing to give it a try (unless Waddell is full of crap) instead of trading him in the offseason. Maybe in November it becomes clear that it just doesn't work out, and all parties will come to conclusion that it's better to move on, but until then Severson is a Blue Jacket, and that was my point.


No, that's just my guess. I assume that they think Severson is more likely to look better or good enough when there's a new guy to pair him with.

Evason liked the Mateychuk-Provorov pairing, Gudbranson is perfect in the third pairing. I don't know if Severson would be perfect for him. And not because he's a RH either, since Mateychuk and Provorov are LH.

 

[stevo61]

Olivier to ZAR and Danforth and maybe try Chinakhov to Sillinger, he has chemistry with Silly and Boone/Dima. But it is a question whether Evason trusts Yegor and how he imagines the third line.

I don't think Chinakhov trusted his back which was the issue. Before the injury Evason thought enough of him to play him on line 1, when he came back he was pretty tentative and Evason didn't have time for Chinakhov to find himself again.

Why didn't guys like Kunin get that same treatment sooner when all he did was chase hits and play horrible hockey? One of life's greatest mysteries

 

[VT]

I don't think Chinakhov trusted his back which was the issue. Before the injury Evason thought enough of him to play him on line 1, when he came back he was pretty tentative and Evason didn't have time for Chinakhov to find himself again.

Why didn't guys like Kunin get that same treatment sooner when all he did was chase hits and play horrible hockey? One of life's greatest mysteries

Evason likes players as Kunin, remember Minnesota. Also he probably wanted to get a chance Luke to get used to the new team.

 

[stevo61]

Evason likes players as Kunin, remember Minnesota. Also he probably wanted to get a chance Luke to get used to the new team.

I was willing to give it a chance with an open mind as the only good time Kunin had in the NHL happened to be under Evason but when it's clear it isn't working you have to adjust. It's one of the weirdest things almost every coach does, pick some random 3rd or 4th liner who is terrible but plays with some edge and give them too much trust. It got there eventually but took too long

 

[stevo61]

You are not alone. Some of our bigger guys like Werenski and Marchenko aren’t too physical and we probably don’t want them to be overly physical. Fantilli is learning but not there yet. We have the best fighter in the game and Gudbranson, but I look at some of the hits and I don’t see the current CBJ team doing similar things. I think we are built more for “Don’t take cheap shots against our young guys” than violent playoff hockey. The 2018-19 team would push around this team.

I agree with this. We have guys who can play through the physical stuff I think but Olivier is really our only guy that hits like he means it. Got some guys who can grind and would certainly be bothersome over a 7 game series but literally 1 dude other teams would worry about physically. I still hold out some hope that Voronkov steps up in that department during playoff hockey but we will have to wait and see on that one.

Not surprisingly with Waddell in here the drafting approach shifted and started taking big guys who can skate. Lindstrom and Elick have elements we desperately need, hopefully through health and development they both work their way to the big club someday

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

GMDW want to step in here and assist on this situation?

 

[Cowumbus]

GMDW want to step in here and assist on this situation?

Yes please. Yes yes yes

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

^^ That's probably getting solved now that their AHL affiliate is eliminated (Rockford just beat Chicago Wolves 2-0 sweep), so the only option is Carolina for Nikishin. So if Tulsky is true to his word, they'll sign him promptly now.

Coincidentally, one CAR fan in one of those Nikishin threads mentioned offhand that Tulsky has been true to his word so far "unlike Waddell". Make of that what you will. I'm prone to believe most GMs live in a world where what's true today isn't necessarily true tomorrow, so changes happen and it's no big deal.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

^^ That's probably getting solved now that their AHL affiliate is eliminated (Rockford just beat Chicago Wolves 2-0 sweep), so the only option is Carolina for Nikishin. So if Tulsky is true to his word, they'll sign him promptly now.

Coincidentally, one CAR fan in one of those Nikishin threads mentioned offhand that Tulsky has been true to his word so far "unlike Waddell". Make of that what you will. I'm prone to believe most GMs live in a world where what's true today isn't necessarily true tomorrow, so changes happen and it's no big deal.

I admit it had occurred to me the agent sounded like he was talking historically with a Carolina being difficult, which could be read as Waddell is difficult. Which makes the notion that we could step in to resolve anything kinda funny.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I admit it had occurred to me the agent sounded like he was talking historically with a Carolina being difficult, which could be read as Waddell is difficult. Which makes the notion that we could step in to resolve anything kinda funny.

It’s possible that the issue is the “collaborative decision-making process” often referenced with Carolina which also is said to include heavy involvement by the owner.

 

[Nanabijou]

What happens with Harris? I initially thought they were going to walk away from him, but he looked decent with Guddy at the end. I think CBJ will qualify him at $1.4 as extra insurance as a 6-8 D-man.

 

[majormajor]

What happens with Harris? I initially thought they were going to walk away from him, but he looked decent with Guddy at the end. I think CBJ will qualify him at $1.4 as extra insurance as a 6-8 D-man.

I don't think we will, he didn't have a strong game until the very end of the season. We have prospects who can give us that type of inconsistency and have a better chance of popping. Hunt and Svozil are pushing NHL ready. Guillaume Richard I'm not sure, since he just graduated college, but he might be the best of that bunch and give us a defensive option we don't have from anyone else. And we still have Christiansen, who has already been extended. All four of those are LD.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

It’s possible that the issue is the “collaborative decision-making process” often referenced with Carolina which also is said to include heavy involvement by the owner.

it has always sounded like to me that the owner was the biggest difficulty.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Waddell hasn’t exactly been a mystery box. He’s outwardly said everything he’s wanted to do since he got here.

he's been transparent, but there's a distinction between things he's saying that are plainly factual (i.e. saying they couldn't move elvis last summer) and posturing.

of course people are going to ask him about the two players who clearly don't fit (elvis + severson). but half of the teams in the league are still playing hockey. the offseason hasn't even started yet.

anything he says at this stage of the offseason is designed to not cost them potential leverage.

for example: he said they're not considering a buyout for elvis at this time. that leaves the door open for them to figure out a non-buyout solution between now and june 29. if they can't find one, i'm sure they'll change their tune and "consider" (read: execute) a buyout on june 30.

same story with severson. no reason to do a disservice to the player or reduce their own leverage by telegraphing a move that is going to be difficult to execute.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

he's been transparent, but there's a distinction between things he's saying that are plainly factual (i.e. saying they couldn't move elvis last summer) and posturing.

of course people are going to ask him about the two players who clearly don't fit (elvis + severson). but half of the teams in the league are still playing hockey. the offseason hasn't even started yet.

anything he says at this stage of the offseason is designed to not cost them potential leverage.

for example: he said they're not considering a buyout for elvis at this time. that leaves the door open for them to figure out a non-buyout solution between now and june 29. if they can't find one, i'm sure they'll change their tune and "consider" (read: execute) a buyout on june 30.

same story with severson. no reason to do a disservice to the player or reduce their own leverage by telegraphing a move that is going to be difficult to execute.

I really don’t think outwardly saying Severson is on the trade block affects his value. He didnt play for a week, it’s not exactly a secret.

We’ll see what happens but as of now I’m expecting both Severson and Elvis to be on the roster next year.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I really don’t think outwardly saying Severson is on the trade block affects his value. He didnt play for a week, it’s not exactly a secret.

with severson it has less to do with trade value and more to do with professionalism. front office reputation is important.

if waddell said "yeah we want to move severson, he's not a fit here" and then they're not able to make a move? that's a shitty thing to do to damon severson, the human being – who would get constant questions from the press – and a distraction for the team.

We’ll see what happens but as of now I’m expecting both Severson and Elvis to be on the roster next year.

don waddell has no reason to let the cat out of the bag right now with either guy. he doesn't need to commit to a buyout until the trade market has been exhausted. half the league is still playing right now, and the buyout window isn't even open yet.

he's a good GM. he's not going to telegraph his intentions with either guy until they're up against a hard deadline. in elvis's case, that's june 30, when the buyout window closes.

severson's situation is a bit harder to navigate due to the headwinds working against the jackets (term + NTC) and as such is a lot more fluid. feels like a mid-summer move for a team that misses out on the thin UFA RHD crop.

but also, the jackets might also be that team, which is why it's pragmatic for waddell to maintain a good relationship with the player.

 

[Xoggz22]

We’ll see what happens but as of now I’m expecting both Severson and Elvis to be on the roster next year.

I will only say that I will be disappointed if that's how it plays out. I certainly am not going to go out and say they will both be gone, but, as a fan, it just feels like that's not a step towards improvement and winning the cup. Granted the contract situation for both could dictate your statement becoming true. They may not have any market without the CBJ doing something completely painful and regrettable to move them. I'm just saying I will be disappointed and I DON'T expect both to return.

 

[tunnelvision]

What Waddell has said about Severson or Olivier is not comparable to what he said about Elvis, JVR, Provorov, Fabbro or Danforth. Why are we trying so hard to invalidate his words?

"He's going to be a Blue Jacket" and "He isn't going anywhere" are pretty cut and dried to me.

Whereas comments like "He won more games for us", "He's been a good veteran for us" and "We've had talks with his agent" leave much more room for interpretation.

 

[majormajor]

What Waddell has said about Severson or Olivier is not comparable to what he said about Elvis, JVR, Provorov, Fabbro or Danforth. Why are we trying so hard to invalidate his words?

"He's going to be a Blue Jacket" and "He isn't going anywhere" are pretty cut and dried to me.

Whereas comments like "He won more games for us", "He's been a good veteran for us" and "We've had talks with his agent" leave much more room for interpretation.

I suspect you might be right. But it also might be that he is trying to avoid any expectations set that he is trying to move Severson, which of course puts the player and team in a tough spot if you don't have a trade partner. With Elvis it's a little bit different because it has long been established that the player and team were trying to part ways.