Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames | Page 85 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League

Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

Trading the 2026 pick is the dumbest thing the Flames could ever do. McKenna is likely to be a franchise player and he would be the best player to ever play for the Flames if they got him. We got 2 shots at the number 1 pick next year and I hope we could get more as the 2026 draft is very talented. I would even trade this years picks for next years.
Got to give to get, the 2026 draft class is much better than 2025 but as it currently stands Calgary has zero shot at McKenna sadly. The team as currently built finished 15th in the league and that was already with an anemic offense. Vegas has absolutely no shot at being a bottom 5-10 team either so I wouldn’t get your hopes up their either.

Trading the 2026 instead of 2025 has a lot more value given the better draft and mystery box nature of it, and keeps this wave of prospects coming up close together when our cap starts getting tight in 3-4 years.
 
Got to give to get, the 2026 draft class is much better than 2025 but as it currently stands Calgary has zero shot at McKenna sadly. The team as currently built finished 15th in the league and that was already with an anemic offense. Vegas has absolutely no shot at being a bottom 5-10 team either so I wouldn’t get your hopes up their either.

Trading the 2026 instead of 2025 has a lot more value given the better draft and mystery box nature of it, and keeps this wave of prospects coming up close together when our cap starts getting tight in 3-4 years.
No it really isn’t. A team that can’t score and relies on goaltending and complete team adherence to a low impact defence first system to win is also one that is ripe for a bottom 10 finish as it doesn’t take much to lose those 1 goal games instead of win.
The 2026 1sts should be untouchable.
 
No it really isn’t. A team that can’t score and relies on goaltending and complete team adherence to a low impact defence first system to win is also one that is ripe for a bottom 10 finish as it doesn’t take much to lose those 1 goal games instead of win.
The 2026 1sts should be untouchable.
Calgary had 10 wins and 14 losses in extra time last season. In total in 1 goal games (counting empty betters) we were 27 wins, 24 losses so a middling performance in line with our total record. If anything we are likely to leave less points on the board if the 1 goal games started going our way. 11 times last season the other team forced OT by scoring in the final 10 minutes with 3 examples of us blowing a multi goal lead. Calgary only made a late come back 5 times last season to force OT. Those would be the “could go either way” close games you were referring to and Calgary got stomped in them.

Also ironically enough you say we relied on goaltending to get there, where other teams actually had much better goaltending in one goal games than us. We received .906 goaltending when games were within 1 goal which is pretty remarkable. Every other team however received .914 goaltending against us though in those exact situations, which is only beat by Winnipeg/Hellebuyck.

So if you’re looking for a swing in those one goal games, they’re more likely to swing in our favor than the opposite direction. To have gotten a shot at 1st overall this season Calgary would’ve had to have lost 12 more points in the standings than they did to finish 11th worst. That’d mean 6-12 more losses in 1 goal situations than we had this season. To get to 5th worst? 11-21 more losses in those 1 goal games. It’s truly just not happening, especially when it already looks like luck wasn’t on our side, and in this hypothetical we are adding offensive talent.
 
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So if you’re looking for a swing in those one goal games, they’re more likely to swing in our favor than the opposite direction.
This is completely untrue. What is more likely is we don't see 12+ 3rd period comebacks (and that's just games we started behind in the 3rd)... where we either won or forced OT
 
This is completely untrue. What is more likely is we don't see 12+ 3rd period comebacks (and that's just games we started behind in the 3rd)... where we either won or forced OT
We had 12 games where we came back in the 3rd, other teams had 11 games where they came back in the final 10 minutes (where once again, we had 5). People who want us to be bad see only 1 of those as unsustainable, whereas shooting percentages, improvement from our young core, and these hypothetical additions point to the other side being unsustainable.

The biggest difference already will just be team shooting percentages returning to normal. Coleman just had the 2nd worst on-ice shooting percentage of his career, Kadri his 2nd worst, Backlund his 3rd worst, Sharangovich his worst, Zary’s dropped 40% year over year, Huberdeau 4th worst (despite a career high personal shooting percentage that will drop, but also the lowest secondary assists he’s ever had by far), and Frost and Farabee their worst by a country mile with their time with the Flames. Goals are gonna come whether we add impact players or not, it’s just that adding talent will help them soar.

Can’t say this enough, we just had one of the worst 5v5 shooting percentages seen of the 2020s. This is not one of the worst groups assembled of the 2020s so far, any regression is likely positive not negative people. If I have to spend a second straight offseason telling people a bottom 5 finish is out of the cards so be it.
 
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Outside of Parekh literally no one in our prospect pool projects to be a game breaker.

Don’t rush the rebuild one year in. This team needs to keep compiling picks and making smart trades for younger players a la the Markstrom deal.

This team could absolutely fall off a cliff next year. Do I think they will? No. But it’s absolutely a possibility.
 
Got to give to get, the 2026 draft class is much better than 2025 but as it currently stands Calgary has zero shot at McKenna sadly. The team as currently built finished 15th in the league and that was already with an anemic offense. Vegas has absolutely no shot at being a bottom 5-10 team either so I wouldn’t get your hopes up their either.

Trading the 2026 instead of 2025 has a lot more value given the better draft and mystery box nature of it, and keeps this wave of prospects coming up close together when our cap starts getting tight in 3-4 years.
You must be new to this team. The team the exceeds expectations and gives fans hope and then shits the bed the next year. We’ve had these outlier seasons before and the following year was always reverting back to earth. It’s kind of the Flames thing. Boston, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Rangers, Islanders were all being talked about as playoff teams and some of them being Cup contenders. They all sucked balls this year and ended up with higher picks than they thought. I can say this. No one at the beginning of the year would have said the Islanders were going to be picking first in the draft. Your idea of trading the 26 pick is absolutely foolish and your expectations for the Flames can very much miss the mark next year. You never know what will ruin a season. A key injury and we very much could be picking first. Flames actually gave up the Dobson pick to try and get over the hump and win the cup. Didn’t happen. At this point we’d be much better off with Dobson + rather than Hamonic for that brief time. Hell we would have had Barzal if we didn’t trade our picks to get Hamilton. The next year we had the 6th pick. So these shortcut trades have actually hurt and not helped
 
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You must be new to this team. The team the exceeds expectations and gives fans hope and then shits the bed the next year. We’ve had these outlier seasons before and the following year was always reverting back to earth. It’s kind of the Flames thing. Boston, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Rangers, Islanders were all being talked about as playoff teams and some of them being Cup contenders. They all sucked balls this year and ended up with higher picks than they thought. I can say this. No one at the beginning of the year would have said the Islanders were going to be picking first in the draft. Your idea of trading the 26 pick is absolutely foolish and your expectations for the Flames can very much miss the mark next year. You never know what will ruin a season. A key injury and we very much could be picking first. Flames actually gave up the Dobson pick to try and get over the hump and win the cup. Didn’t happen. At this point we’d be much better off with Dobson + rather than Hamonic for that brief time. Hell we would have had Barzal if we didn’t trade our picks to get Hamilton. The next year we had the 6th pick. So these shortcut trades have actually hurt and not helped
Not at all new to this team, let me break it down for you. This team loves over achieving then under achieving, it’s an endless cycle. I can break it down for you on why the team exceeds expectations.

2014-15: year we over achieved. We had the 2nd highest 5v5 shooting percentage. Led to Hamilton trade.

2016-17: over achieved. Had the 16th best shooting percentage on what was truly a terrible flames forward group. Backlund and Frolik were top 5 in scoring amongst our forwards. Led to Hamonic trade.

2018-19: over achieved. Second in the nhl in points, 4th overall in 5v5 shooting percentage.

2021-22: over achieved. 6th in the NHL in points, 15th overall in 5v5 shooting percentage (4th overall in save percentage).

2024-25: 31st overall in 5v5 shooting percentage. Only better than Nashville, the by far biggest underachieving team of the year.

All of our over achieving years followed by under achieving followed one simple rule. Clear as day last season was an underachieving year, not an overachieving season. But again, you must be new to this team to not see that it’s cyclical.

This is clear as mud for anyone to witness by the way. I’ll make anyone a bet of a year off posting that Washington finishes next season with less points than this year, or Nashville finishes with more than this season. Colombus will score less goals next season than their 7th ranked offense, and Oilers improve on their 11th ranked offense next year. These super base line stats really lay out who suffered and were who were rewarded by outlier seasons, and the Flames were a group that suffered this year.
 
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Not at all new to this team, let me break it down for you. This team loves over achieving then under achieving, it’s an endless cycle. I can break it down for you on why the team exceeds expectations.

2014-15: year we over achieved. We had the 2nd highest 5v5 shooting percentage. Led to Hamilton trade.

2016-17: over achieved. Had the 16th best shooting percentage on what was truly a terrible flames forward group. Backlund and Frolik were top 5 in scoring amongst our forwards. Led to Hamonic trade.

2018-19: over achieved. Second in the nhl in points, 4th overall in 5v5 shooting percentage.

2021-22: over achieved. 6th in the NHL in points, 15th overall in 5v5 shooting percentage (4th overall in save percentage).

2024-25: 31st overall in 5v5 shooting percentage. Only better than Nashville, the by far biggest underachieving team of the year.

All of our over achieving years followed by under achieving followed one simple rule. Clear as day last season was an underachieving year, not an overachieving season. But again, you must be new to this team to not see that it’s cyclical.

This is clear as mud for anyone to witness by the way. I’ll make anyone a bet of a year off posting that Washington finishes next season with less points than this year, or Nashville finishes with more than this season. Colombus will score less goals next season than their 7th ranked offense, and Oilers improve on their 11th ranked offense next year. These super base line stats really lay out who suffered and were who were rewarded by outlier seasons, and the Flames were a group that suffered this year.
Your argument just made our case that trading the 2026 1st would be monumentally stupid.
This team massively overachieved this year based on a total team effort on defence. So based on history this team is gonna crash and burn in 2025/26
 
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We had 12 games where we came back in the 3rd, other teams had 11 games where they came back in the final 10 minutes (where once again, we had 5). People who want us to be bad see only 1 of those as unsustainable, whereas shooting percentages, improvement from our young core, and these hypothetical additions point to the other side being unsustainable.

The biggest difference already will just be team shooting percentages returning to normal. Coleman just had the 2nd worst on-ice shooting percentage of his career, Kadri his 2nd worst, Backlund his 3rd worst, Sharangovich his worst, Zary’s dropped 40% year over year, Huberdeau 4th worst (despite a career high personal shooting percentage that will drop, but also the lowest secondary assists he’s ever had by far), and Frost and Farabee their worst by a country mile with their time with the Flames. Goals are gonna come whether we add impact players or not, it’s just that adding talent will help them soar.

Can’t say this enough, we just had one of the worst 5v5 shooting percentages seen of the 2020s. This is not one of the worst groups assembled of the 2020s so far, any regression is likely positive not negative people. If I have to spend a second straight offseason telling people a bottom 5 finish is out of the cards so be it.
Have you looked at why the shooting percentage was low? There's a number of factors that impact shooting percentage. An everything on the net team will obviously have a much lower shooting percentage than a possession team. Any team that generates a lot of low danger, perimeter shots will have a very low shooting percentage overall.

Wolf is also a huge factor in the teams victories. He posted almost a .915 through the first 4 months and only about .900 through the last 3. Teams invest a lot of time in scouting goalies. Assuming that Wolf numbers will continue to increase in an upward trajectory is pretty optimistic. The fact is, he'll have to improve, in order to maintain his numbers and counter the scouting reports.
 
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Your argument just made our case that trading the 2026 1st would be monumentally stupid.
This team massively overachieved this year based on a total team effort on defence. So based on history this team is gonna crash and burn in 2025/26
Hod did you see a post laying out what every one of our overachieving seasons had in common, then show that we experienced the exact opposite of it last season, and come to the conclusion it proved your point?

To lay it plain, if you just applied the average shooting percentage of those 3 seasons (not including 2021-22 when we were just legitimately a good team), I showed and it applied to last year, Calgary scores 33 extra goals last year. That’s what overachieving looks like.
Have you looked at why the shooting percentage was low? There's a number of factors that impact shooting percentage. An everything on the net team will obviously have a much lower shooting percentage than a possession team. Any team that generates a lot of low danger, perimeter shots will have a very low shooting percentage overall.
Im under no illusion that the Flames are an offensive juggernaut, and they won’t ever naturally shoot the lights out. But there is still a very natural range to land in, and Calgary is just even at the bottom or below that range this season. For example, in the now 3 seasons we’ve seen since the big trade, we’ve finished 23rd, 21st and now 31st in 5v5 shooting percentage. Post Lindholm trade last season, our 5v5 shooting percentage was 8.16 with almost the exact same forward roster we rolled out this season. That was still the 8th worst in the league over that time span. It also would’ve meant an additional 18 goals just at 5v5 over the course of our season if we maintained it instead of our percentage this season. This is what I’m trying to show and people are refusing to acknowledge. We won’t ever have a good shooting percentage with our current play style. that is clear as day yet is what everyone’s counter argument always alludes to. We also won’t have another season as bad as this one, and remaining in the bottom 3rd still can be a swing of 15-25 additional goals just at 5v5 going into next season, without including any other improvements we could potentially add on top.
 
Hod did you see a post laying out what every one of our overachieving seasons had in common, then show that we experienced the exact opposite of it last season, and come to the conclusion it proved your point?

To lay it plain, if you just applied the average shooting percentage of those 3 seasons (not including 2021-22 when we were just legitimately a good team), I showed and it applied to last year, Calgary scores 33 extra goals last year. That’s what overachieving looks like.

Im under no illusion that the Flames are an offensive juggernaut, and they won’t ever naturally shoot the lights out. But there is still a very natural range to land in, and Calgary is just even at the bottom or below that range this season. For example, in the now 3 seasons we’ve seen since the big trade, we’ve finished 23rd, 21st and now 31st in 5v5 shooting percentage. Post Lindholm trade last season, our 5v5 shooting percentage was 8.16 with almost the exact same forward roster we rolled out this season. That was still the 8th worst in the league over that time span. It also would’ve meant an additional 18 goals just at 5v5 over the course of our season if we maintained it instead of our percentage this season. This is what I’m trying to show and people are refusing to acknowledge. We won’t ever have a good shooting percentage with our current play style. that is clear as day yet is what everyone’s counter argument always alludes to. We also won’t have another season as bad as this one, and remaining in the bottom 3rd still can be a swing of 15-25 additional goals just at 5v5 going into next season, without including any other improvements we could potentially add on top.
I understand perfectly what you're saying, I think everyone does, but you're definitely a glass half full kind of guy. It also wouldn't be unbelievable, by any means for this team to allow an extra goal, every 4 games either. Especially if we move Andersson and replace him with a rookie Parekh. Backlund is toast and Kadri isn't far behind him in age. An injury to Wolf and the 2026 1st is top 10.
While I think this team will probably finish in relatively the same spot next year, I don't think its the time to spend, at least not picks that literally be anywhere from #1 to #20.
 
I understand perfectly what you're saying, I think everyone does, but you're definitely a glass half full kind of guy. It also wouldn't be unbelievable, by any means for this team to allow an extra goal, every 4 games either. Especially if we move Andersson and replace him with a rookie Parekh. Backlund is toast and Kadri isn't far behind him in age. An injury to Wolf and the 2026 1st is top 10.
While I think this team will probably finish in relatively the same spot next year, I don't think its the time to spend, at least not picks that literally be anywhere from #1 to #20.
That’s the exact point. Calgary could see some regression from Wolf/our goaltending. That regression would likely offset any positive regression you’d see from some offense. Which leaves you right where Calgary finished anyways, middle of the pack and well out of McKenna range. Calgary’s shooting percentage was a lot more bad than Wolf’s season was good if that puts this season in perspective at all. Then your left to ask yourself in the end, is Calgary’s second worst 5v5 shooting percentage the franchise has seen in the salary cap era more likely to end, or Wolf stopping being good goalie more likely to happen? The only time Calgarys was worse, they climbed 23 points in the standings the next season by the way, which won’t happen this time but also paints a picture.

Also I think it’s pretty clear in any iteration where we are adding players like Barzal and Marner, we likely aren’t trading away our defenseman that lead the team in minutes in the same offseason.
 
Calgary had 10 wins and 14 losses in extra time last season. In total in 1 goal games (counting empty betters) we were 27 wins, 24 losses so a middling performance in line with our total record. If anything we are likely to leave less points on the board if the 1 goal games started going our way. 11 times last season the other team forced OT by scoring in the final 10 minutes with 3 examples of us blowing a multi goal lead. Calgary only made a late come back 5 times last season to force OT. Those would be the “could go either way” close games you were referring to and Calgary got stomped in them.

Also ironically enough you say we relied on goaltending to get there, where other teams actually had much better goaltending in one goal games than us. We received .906 goaltending when games were within 1 goal which is pretty remarkable. Every other team however received .914 goaltending against us though in those exact situations, which is only beat by Winnipeg/Hellebuyck.

So if you’re looking for a swing in those one goal games, they’re more likely to swing in our favor than the opposite direction. To have gotten a shot at 1st overall this season Calgary would’ve had to have lost 12 more points in the standings than they did to finish 11th worst. That’d mean 6-12 more losses in 1 goal situations than we had this season. To get to 5th worst? 11-21 more losses in those 1 goal games. It’s truly just not happening, especially when it already looks like luck wasn’t on our side, and in this hypothetical we are adding offensive talent.
Calgary had a -17 goal differential last year. based on that they were very lucky to get to 96 points.
 
Calgary had a -17 goal differential last year. based on that they were very lucky to get to 96 points.
Even just sorting by goal differential they were 19th (it was -13 by the way). 19th place finished the season with 89 points last season. So by your argument we overacheived by roughly 7 points last season, while having a massively under achieving offense which is laid out in previous posts.
 
Anyone looking at our roster and thinking we're going to improve in goals for is on some good shit, other than Coronato (and hopefully Zary) who the hell is going to improve? Everyone is either topped out and/or in their 30's. Even with a career high from Kadri and Huberdeau potting 28 the team finished bottom 3. I hope for the best, but Farabee looked cooked, Backlund is char grilled well done cooked, Coleman is on the brink, 4th line gives us nothing.

Beginning of the year Wolf played out of his mind, in the back 1/3 Vladar played out of his mind. Team still relies HEAVILY on goaltending and 3rd period comebacks to get within a sniff of the playoffs.

I do agree that it will be tough to get a top pick even in the top 10 is tough, there are some bad teams in the NHL with some bad coaching. Huska gets shit on routinely on this forum, but he's 10 times the coach some of these muppets in the NHL are.
 
Anyone looking at our roster and thinking we're going to improve in goals for is on some good shit, other than Coronato (and hopefully Zary) who the hell is going to improve? Everyone is either topped out and/or in their 30's. Even with a career high from Kadri and Huberdeau potting 28 the team finished bottom 3. I hope for the best, but Farabee looked cooked, Backlund is char grilled well done cooked, Coleman is on the brink, 4th line gives us nothing.

Beginning of the year Wolf played out of his mind, in the back 1/3 Vladar played out of his mind. Team still relies HEAVILY on goaltending and 3rd period comebacks to get within a sniff of the playoffs.

I do agree that it will be tough to get a top pick even in the top 10 is tough, there are some bad teams in the NHL with some bad coaching. Huska gets shit on routinely on this forum, but he's 10 times the coach some of these muppets in the NHL are.
Just for comparison's sake, though, what you are describing (an aging forward group with a few non-star young guys sprinkled through) is very similar to the Washington Capitals if you were looking at them last summer. They were extremely similar in 2023-24 to the 2024-25 Calgary Flames: low offence, but hard to beat due to a structure that worked. They scraped into the playoffs due to being in the East, but the team was arguably worse than this Flames team. If you think back to the discussion after they were quickly shown the door in the first round, the Caps were lumped in with the Penguins as teams in the unenviable situation of having a long rebuild in front of them, but not quite being ready to commit to it due to the star player on the roster.

Did anyone actually predict or think there would be a reason for the Capitals to get as much better for the next season than they did? Can we legitimately look back and say that we should have seen that coming? It is not a requirement that there be a clear, logical argument in place for a team to improve. Often times, it just happens. The Flames could have their Dylan Strome in Morgan Frost, their Electric Prostate Aleksei Protas equivalent in Adam Klapka, their Connor McMichael in Connor Zary, etc.

And the biggest wild card of all is Parekh, of course, because a dynamic offensive defenceman can make a world of difference in how a team plays. Adam Fox, as much as I hate him, made the mediocre roster on the Rangers into contenders for a while there.

Anyway, as much as anyone else I'll accept that the Flames are a team that still has tank potential next year. But there is not reason to argue against the existence of other possibilities.
 
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Just for comparison's sake, though, what you are describing (an aging forward group with a few non-star young guys sprinkled through) is very similar to the Washington Capitals if you were looking at them last summer. They were extremely similar in 2023-24 to the 2024-25 Calgary Flames: low offence, but hard to beat due to a structure that worked. But they scraped into the playoffs due to being in the East, but the team was arguably worse than this Flames team. If you think back to the discussion after they were quickly shown the door in the first round, the Caps belongs in conversation with the Penguins as teams in the unenviable situation of having a long rebuild in front of them, but not quite being ready to commit to it due to the star player on the roster.

Did anyone actually predict or think there would be a reason for the Capitals to get as much better for the next season than they did? Can we legitimately look back and say that we should have seen that coming? It is not a requirement that there be a clear, logical argument in place for a team to improve. Often times, it just happens. The Flames could have their Dylan Strome in Morgan Frost, their Electric Prostate Aleksei Protas equivalent in Adam Klapka, their Connor McMichael in Connor Zary, etc.

And the biggest wild card of all is Parekh, of course, because a dynamic offensive defenceman can make a world of difference in how a team plays. Adam Fox, as much as I hate him, made the mediocre roster on the Rangers into contenders for a while there.

Anyway, as much as anyone else I'll accept that the Flames are a team that still has tank potential next year. But there is not reason to argue against the existence of other possibilities.
tl;dr

Will the Flames be better or worse next year?
Yes
 
Conny needs to lock up Wolf/Zary quick here.

Flames should 100% put a large contract infront of knies 7-8 X 9.5-10Mil.

Brad will be not happy, but Knies is perfect age fit for the flames and a fairly safe bet to be a good/very good player floor and possible elite ceiling. With the cap going up, it doesn't really seem like a risky play.
 
Flames should 100% put a large contract infront of knies 7-8 X 9.5-10Mil.

Brad will be not happy, but Knies is perfect age fit for the flames and a fairly safe bet to be a good/very good player floor and possible elite ceiling. With the cap going up, it doesn't really seem like a risky play.
This is an absolutely awful idea. No, awful isn't good enough... it would be the absolute biggest mistake in franchise history.

Yes, let's give up 4 first round picks in the next 5 years for a winger because of some stupid vendetta against Treliving... that could see him get multiple top 10 picks... f***ing brilliant.
 
Conny needs to lock up Wolf/Zary quick here.

Flames should 100% put a large contract infront of knies 7-8 X 9.5-10Mil.

Brad will be not happy, but Knies is perfect age fit for the flames and a fairly safe bet to be a good/very good player floor and possible elite ceiling. With the cap going up, it doesn't really seem like a risky play.
What like an offer sheet? That's 4 1st round picks in compensation. Knies is a great complimentary player. He is no where near good enough to carry this team to the playoffs, let alone cup contention. Giving him that offer sheet would be beyond stupid. Calgary gave out the worst offer sheet ever in history when they tried to get Ryan O'Reilly, and this might top that.
 
Rasmus’ play at the World’s has looked really good. I’m curious if:

1) the Flames look at that, say ‘that’s our future captain’ and think ‘as our team improves we’ll be able to deploy him this way, we should keep him’.

2) other teams look at him and say ‘this would be a huge next step for us, we need to get this guy’.

one way or another, I think he did himself a huge favour going to this tournament.
 
Rasmus’ play at the World’s has looked really good. I’m curious if:

1) the Flames look at that, say ‘that’s our future captain’ and think ‘as our team improves we’ll be able to deploy him this way, we should keep him’.

2) other teams look at him and say ‘this would be a huge next step for us, we need to get this guy’.

one way or another, I think he did himself a huge favour going to this tournament.

We know what we have in Razzy. His decent play at the Worlds is definitely serving as a showcase, and his value will never be higher, especially if he were to come back to a middling Flames team for that final year of his contract. My guess is he’s gone sometime this summer.
 

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