Speculation: Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

[Figgy44]

Sorry to hear you've been ill. That sucks. Hope all is better or on the path.

We seem to narrow our focus way too much as fans, I see it even worse on X versus here (and we can get bad here). There's no right or wrong answer, but the 20,000 foot view of this team is that clearly unless goaltending just stops, they won't be in a position to recoup that top 10 pick from Montreal anyway. If they win in Dallas tonight, that Murder's row will end up 3-2-1, which would tell us Calgary can grind out some wins even against decent clubs.

Again, nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing this team can do in the next 36 hours will change the trajectory of this season. Unless they want to unload Wolf (and then be on the decades search for their elite #1 since Kipper) there's nothing this club can do that'll have us go 5-15-1 in the next 21 games; and there's nothing this club can do that'll have us go 15-5-1 either. This team will go somewhere in the 13-9-4 range and be in the WC2 slot.

Yeah. The recent bout seems to be pneumonia which is shittier than normal, and I had nagging coughs for basically most of 2024 calendar year. Fingers crossed it goes away. I'm on so many diff meds and supplements that my head gets foggy and loopier than normal at times.

Cheering for WC2 or even WC1. Let's go!

 

[DomBarr]

Again, nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing this team can do in the next 36 hours will change the trajectory of this season. Unless they want to unload Wolf (and then be on the decades search for their elite #1 since Kipper) there's nothing this club can do that'll have us go 5-15-1 in the next 21 games; and there's nothing this club can do that'll have us go 15-5-1 either. This team will go somewhere in the 13-9-4 range and be in the WC2 slot.

they won't do it BUT they could actually change the trajectory without unloading Wolf or reducing his playing time by trading away 2 or more key veteran players like Weegar and Andersson

this team doesn't have to do anything and it can absolutely go 5-15-1 or worse as when the key factor in how the team is doing is goaltending it can go south in a hurry and it wouldn't actually shock me to much if it happened however going 15-5-1 or better while possible is extremely unlikely with this team as goaltending can only take them so far.

 

[Lunatik]

It should also be noted that playoff revenue is as close to pure profit for a team as it gets, since the players have already been paid their salaries, so it's just utilities, gameday and FO staff getting paid... if the avg ticket price is 150ish for teh regular season, in the playoffs that is gonna be at least double.... at a 300 avg price playoff revenue for the Flames would be around 5m per home game.

So they'd essentially make enough to pay our highest paid player next season in just 2 games, that is definitely something that matters to NHL franchises too, especially teams receiving revenue sharing... which the Flames are

 

[JPeeper]

What's kinda nuts is even though they're 12th OA right now and 10 teams would need to pass them for them to fall that low.... they are still only 8 points up on Boston who currently sits 11th last.

And us, we're 16th OA and just as close to 7th OA as 6th last.

The parity this year is really incredible.

There is only 3 properly bad teams this year, Chicago, San Jose and Nashville (they've improved from earlier in the year but still not great). For the first 20-40 games the bottom looked the exact same as last year, but Montreal, Anaheim, Columbus, and Ottawa have all made strides towards improving this year with three of them fighting for a playoff spot, two of which are actually sitting in one right now.

The West has a couple teams fighting for that last WC spot. Flames, Vancouver and St. Louis withoutside shots to Anaheim and Utah, but they aren't consistent enough to make up ground. Whereas the East is a complete shit show for those last two WC spots as everyone except (obviously Buffalo) and Pittsburgh are really the only two teams out of it.

NHL is in a good spot right now in terms of parity, there is no real super team either. Should make for an exciting playoffs.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Nobody's trading a Clarke caliber prospect, much less a young NHLer for Ras. With the extra year, his value is something 1st, decent prospect, with legitimate depth potential and a cap dump. The prospect will vary depending on the dump.

You’re right, the Kings probably wouldn’t trade Clarke for Ras. But it seems like there’s a handful of high-potential young dmen that could (maybe) be moved for the right package (Clarke, Nemec, Zellweger, Power). I know it’s very unlikely that any of these guys get moved, maybe one or two at most, but I hope Conroy is putting in calls to all these teams and offering some combination of Rasmus and/or picks/prospects.

Jiricek went for 1st+2nd+3rd+4th, and Rasmus probably has the value of 1st+3rd+. So the value is probably there for one of those guys if we offer Rasmus+2nd/prospect, although those teams would likely prefer straight futures or a similar young player. Maybe if we got creative and got a 3rd team involved it could work (I know this is incredibly unlikely, but just hope Conroy puts in the calls). Zellweger might be the most realistic and would likely be cheaper than the rest. He’s from Calgary too.

I definitely acknowledge that it makes more sense to move Rasmus in the off-season, but if a team like LA or NJ wants a cup run and is open to offers, those are the guys to target. I’m all for keeping Rasmus for a playoff run but we’d be stupid not to at least make offers for those young potential stars.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

It should also be noted that playoff revenue is as close to pure profit for a team as it gets, since the players have already been paid their salaries, so it's just utilities, gameday and FO staff getting paid... if the avg ticket price is 150ish for teh regular season, in the playoffs that is gonna be at least double.... at a 300 avg price playoff revenue for the Flames would be around 5m per home game.

So they'd essentially make enough to pay our highest paid player next season in just 2 games, that is definitely something that matters to NHL franchises too, especially teams receiving revenue sharing... which the Flames are

It’s not nearly that simple. The Flames would only get a small portion of that revenue because league revenue sharing continues into the playoffs. Brian Burke was on a podcast with Jeff Marek the other day explaining that teams don’t see much revenue from ticket sales from the first few home playoff games. It’s only as a team progresses deeper in the playoffs that the added revenue becomes substantial.

"The first few home (playoff) gates are pooled. The way the playoff pool works, you don't see a lot of money from those first couple playoff games. Trust me. Trust me." -Brian Burke

Obviously any added revenue is a win, but we’d only see a small percentage of that $5mil per game revenue unless we advanced past round 1. All that to say it’s not nearly as beneficial (from a financial perspective) as people think to sneak into the playoffs just to get bounced round 1.

 

[Lunatik]

It’s not nearly that simple. The Flames would only get a small portion of that $5mil revenue because league revenue sharing continues into the playoffs. Brian Burke was on a podcast with Jeff Marek the other day explaining that teams don’t see much revenue from ticket sales from the first few home playoff games. It’s only as a team progresses deeper in the playoffs that the added revenue becomes substantial.

"The first few home (playoff) gates are pooled. The way the playoff pool works, you don't see a lot of money from those first couple playoff games. Trust me. Trust me." -Brian Burke

Obviously any added revenue is a win, but it’s we’d likely see a small percentage of that $5mil per game unless we advanced past round 1.

Considering we are a team getting revenue sharing, I think we'd be getting more than you think.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Considering we are a team getting revenue sharing, I think we'd be getting more than you think.

Maybe you’re right, but my understanding is that the majority of playoff ticket revenue from all playoff teams is pooled and then distributed across the league the same way regular season revenue is shared. So we’d still only get to keep the small percentage of revenue that does not go into the revenue sharing pool, and would get the rest as we would in the regular season.

Obviously even a few million is a huge win for our organization, but it’s not like it’s pure profit or some 10+ million dollar incentive just to sneak into round 1 and have a few home playoff games.

 

[Lunatik]

Maybe you’re right, but my understanding is that the majority of playoff ticket revenue from all playoff teams is pooled and then distributed across the league the same way regular season revenue is shared. So we’d still only get to keep the small percentage of revenue that does not go into the revenue sharing pool, and would get the rest as we would in the regular season.

Obviously even a few million is a huge win for our organization, but it’s not like it’s pure profit or some 10+ million dollar incentive just to sneak into round 1 and have a few home playoff games.

I also didn't factor that salaries are paid in USD lol

 

[Dack]

High teens or low 20s to Montreal while drafting with NJD at around 11-12 ish (protection cut off) in a vacuum should be a win.

But it's a specific scenario that should be dripping with extra bonus things to laugh about.



It is, but the losses are the silver lining to some of them, but they fail to remember if our pick is high, Montreal gets it anyways. Going on a run and gifting Montreal a shit pick is actually funnier and more satisfying than gifting them a top pick.

The asset management concerns is that Kadri or Coleman could suddenly become valueless again. Which I kinda get, but it seems our situation is balanced for asset value. Get assets for those guys, gift higher value assets to Montreal. Don't get assets for those guys, gift lower value assets to Montreal.

NJD's pick is pure gravy right now. We might be getting a dream scenario (drafting damn high and giving Montreal damn low AND playoffs) and there's still complaints. This is the perfect year to be unsustainable and next year is a perfect year for regression. All this while keeping culture strong so that we don't end up in a Buffalo style death spiral.



You're making me feel better about this season and I'm already thinking it's been well past expectations so far (minus me being ridiculously sick so ridiculously often and not being able to watch as much as I'd like).

Not just big picture, but patience as well. Zary was called a disappointment for a while. And now, as you said, he's performing at the same clip as picks 1 and 2. I haven't dug too deep, but this draft feels like a mixture of 2018 and 2020 to me. A combination of value across the board (2020), and a seemingly sudden decline at a certain point (pick 12 for 2018). IMO we likely get a good swing with our top pick, the second pick would be a good candidate for a split/trade/move to 2026 draft.

This is a very strange year, but on paper, IMO it's turning out better than imagined possible.

I have dug into this class a LOT. I've seen like ~5 games of each the CHL guys ranked in or around the 1st and I'm now looking at the Americans and Euro's ranked in that range. 2018 is the draft that I'm reminded of, I remember watching that draft and thinking as it got into the mid-late 1st that there's not many players that I'm jealous other teams selected.

This year I think depth is quite bad. There's probably around ~20 players I'd be happy drafting in the 1st round in a typical year and a handful of those guys are players that I think would've been ranked 25-30 or so last year. Looking back at last year, I think there were a lot of 2nd and 3rd rounders who are just as interesting as potential 1st round guys this year. For example, I think Basha is a better prospect than a lot of guys ranked 15 onward in this draft.

I still want to make at least one selection in this years 1st round. Ideally New Jersey falls off enough to land somewhere between 11-16 and at least guarantee somebody in the 3rd tier of this draft. I'm not looking to give away the other pick, there will still be good prospects avaliable in that range, probably a few of the guys I'd have tabbed as 1st round caliber players. However, if it's used in an appropriate deal I won't be too upset.


Unrelated but I have basically 0 interest in Clarke even though I think LA is being stupid here. He fills the same niche as Parekh, I think if you're looking to acquire young D-men you should probably be aiming for guys who skew more defensive or at the very least are strong 2-way players already considering what our current prospect pool looks like.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I also didn't factor that salaries are paid in USD lol

I didn’t think of that either lol, good point. I also didn’t realize that there is a player playoff pool fund that the NHLPA negotiated so that players get a percentage of the extra revenues.

Not that much per player when it’s split across a whole team, but another expense that organizations need to pay before they start seeing revenue.

 

[Darth Vladar]

I can foresee this being a fairly quiet deadline. More likely that Conny takes care of business in the summer.

 

[Lunatik]

View attachment 987923

I can foresee this being a fairly quiet deadline. More likely that Conny takes care of business in the summer.

So let me get this straight.... our UFAs may stay or may go.... way to keep us informed Elliot

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I'd be super surprised if Hanley doesn't become our next Michael Stone type figure.

 

[Lunatik]

I'd be super surprised if Hanley doesn't become our next Michael Stone type figure.

I'm not opposed... but Kuznetsov is waiver eligible next year and we re-signed Pachal... So we we'll have Rasm Weegs, Bahl, Pachal, Solo, Kuz and Miro all at least waiver eligible. If we can dump Miro somewhere (even if it's the bottom of the ocean), then it would be more palatable... but I also expect Conroy to try and bring in some top 4 help; whether than be trade (we've seen Carlo mentioned) or UFA (Lindgren, Chychrun, Pionk, Ekblad, Gavrikov, Provorov.. etc are all out there in a pretty stacked UFA class for defensemen)

 

[Darth Vladar]

I'm not opposed... but Kuznetsov is waiver eligible next year and we re-signed Pachal... So we we'll have Rasm Weegs, Bahl, Pachal, Solo, Kuz and Miro all at least waiver eligible. If we can dump Miro somewhere (even if it's the bottom of the ocean), then it would be more palatable... but I also expect Conroy to try and bring in some top 4 help; whether than be trade (we've seen Carlo mentioned) or UFA (Lindgren, Chychrun, Pionk, Ekblad, Gavrikov, Provorov.. etc are all out there in a pretty stacked UFA class for defensemen)

By all accounts, Chychrun is happy in Washington. I can’t see a reality in which they don’t get something done to keep him there. Hell yes to Pionk, if we end up moving on from Raz. Provorov would be ideal, but Lumbus has even more cap space than we do; the only way I can imagine them not re-signing him is if he legit doesn’t want to be there.

 

[Darth Vladar]

 

[Lunatik]

By all accounts, Chychrun is happy in Washington. I can’t see a reality in which they don’t get something done to keep him there. Hell yes to Pionk, if we end up moving on from Raz. Provorov would be ideal, but Lumbus has even more cap space than we do; the only way I can imagine them not re-signing him is if he legit doesn’t want to be there.

Lots of guys like a place and still move on. We've reached an era where top guys only hit UFA status once during their prime. So I think we're going to see more and more test the market to maximize their earnings, I know we're seeing it in baseball now.