Speculation: Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

[Kielbasa]

Fun fact: Frost has already had a better season in his career (19-26-46) than Lindy’s best season was prior to being traded to the Flames (16-28-44) and their stats are virtually identical this season. You could argue that Lindy brings a defensive pedigree that Frost isn’t really known for, but is that really worth the extra $5.65M per season for Boston to be in the exact same place in the standings as Calgary? Lindy’s one season riding shotgun to Johnny and Chucky was the outlier that gave the sense he was a 1B capable when he is probably better suited as a middle-six. Cozens had his first 30-goal season at age 22, which was miles better than Lindy’s season at the same age and he still makes almost a milli less. What tf has Backs proven? He’s literally been the definition of mid for his entire career. You’re not going to convince me that Lindy-Naz-Backs is any better than Naz/Zary-Frost-Cozens, and we had one of our best offensive seasons ever with the former, plus it makes the Flames younger, and keeps the cost controlled moreso than if Conny were to throw top dollar at the first 1A to hit the market. Re-up Frosty on a three year bridge deal for like $3-4M per, and suddenly you have a decent window of time with versatile centers on every line.

As for Raz, it makes zero sense to re-up him for 6-8 years (and you know he’ll want that term) when RHDs are something we actually have an over abundance of, and when he’d likely fetch a 1st, or a 2nd in a deal like the one I proposed for Cozens. Not sure how you can consider that “gutting the defense” when Bahl-Weegar and Solo-Pachal could have the 1st and 3rd pairings on lock. Any two of Poirier, Kuznetsov, Parekh, Brzu, and Grush would undoubtedly be better than Bean, Barely, and Miro have been for us this year. Dealing Raz, either for a package that includes Cozens, or for another 2026 1st is just smart asset management.

First of all, that is Backlund libel. The man has finished top 10 in Selke voting three times. Just because he doesn't put up as many points, now Cozens is the better player? I get that he's a little cooked now, but that wasn't the case in 2022 when the decision was made.

Honestly, I get the sense we rate players very differently. I just can't get onboard with tossing any prospect in the AHL straight onto the second pair without a NHL proven D partner. That's bad development. Bruzstewicz? Dude hasn't even finished his rookie AHL season!

 

[Darth Vladar]

First of all, that is Backlund libel. The man has finished top 10 in Selke voting three times. Just because he doesn't put up as many points, now Cozens is the better player? I get that he's a little cooked now, but that wasn't the case in 2022 when the decision was made.

Honestly, I get the sense we rate players very differently. I just can't get onboard with tossing any prospect in the AHL straight onto the second pair without a NHL proven D partner. That's bad development. Bruzstewicz? Dude hasn't even finished his rookie AHL season!

Backlund libel? lol the Flames have made the playoffs a grand total of five times in his now sixteen seasons in the NHL, and only ever made it to the second round three of those five times. That is mid as mid can be. He might be valuable as a role player say, as the fourth line center as his career winds to a close, but ain’t no way in hell that man justifiably gets another Selke vote. I can’t say Cozens is the better player because he is twelve years younger, but yeah it’s worth noting that he’d already trumped Backs’ best season at 22 years old.

Re: the D, I didn’t mean hang these kids out to dry. Just that we literally have three RHD studs with arguably top-four ceiling, and another one on the left in Morin (two if you include Poirier). We’ve seen a 20-year old 62nd overall pick Lane Hutson flirt with NHL history straight out of college, with literally zero time as a pro. Not saying we should expect any of our three guys to do what he’s done, but there should be at least the one spot reserved for whichever of them has the best camp, and locking two of those right side spots down with Raz and Pachal for the next 6-8 years make it less feasible that we do so. Factor in that Raz could fetch us another 1st we could use to improve in another area.

I say lock that bottom pairing in place with Solo and Patches, play one of the studs with Bahl and the other with Weegar, and let the chips fall where they may. Parekh typically plays left side anyways, and Brzu usually plays on the right, so why not roll with that to start:

Parekh - Weegar
Bahl - Brzu/Poirier
Solo - Patches

Morin, Mews, Grush, Kuznetsov, Jamieson, and Aspirot would be holding down a stacked asf Wranglers D corps. And we’d be another 2026 1st rounder richer from moving Raz (or 2nd if we deal him for Cozens, plus an RHD prospect like Brunet!)

Morin - Brunet*
Kuzy - Mews
Aspy - Grush
Jamieson

 

[Volica]

Andersson paired with Dahlin today. Common Dahlin, convince the man Buffalo on the way up and to go play with him

(For the record I would prefer one of the younger prospect centers than Cozens, although with another piece cozens would do)

That coupled with a tough schedule could be a “we played well but ultimately come up short” and back down to a better draft pick and the rebuild continues

Byram has been Dahlin’s partner. I'd have to think Calgary would probably want to pull the trigger on that.

 

[Figgy44]

First of all, that is Backlund libel. The man has finished top 10 in Selke voting three times. Just because he doesn't put up as many points, now Cozens is the better player? I get that he's a little cooked now, but that wasn't the case in 2022 when the decision was made.

Honestly, I get the sense we rate players very differently. I just can't get onboard with tossing any prospect in the AHL straight onto the second pair without a NHL proven D partner. That's bad development. Bruzstewicz? Dude hasn't even finished his rookie AHL season!

I think get where @Darth Vladar is coming from though. The contingency plan is 4x 2C if we can't get a bonafide 1C. That's valid.

But I also assume you're saying that if we can get 4x 2C, just pay the price to get a 1C.

Is that correct? If so, you're talking same page different paragraph. I'm pretty sure @Darth Vladar isn't saying that we should settle with what we have right now for C. I'm saying that he perceives that after two drafts, if we don't have a 1C, then go back to jack of all trades backbone.

I think he's talking contingency, not primary plan. I think you're talking primary plan, not contingency. TBH, I think the two of you are mostly agreeable.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

None of Frost, Cozens, and Kerins are 1B capable centers now, nor do I believe they will become that. Cozens and Frost are 2/3 centres, and while a like Kerins a lot, he's nowhere near dynamic enough to be a 1C.

Meanwhile, Kadri is unlikely to maintain his level of play as he ages. So in the scenario where one or more of the former take the step up to 1B level, Kadri has most likely taken a step back by then.

I think it's ridiculous to write off a guy who put up 31 goals and 68 points as a 21/22 year old as not being 1B capable. The year he scored 31 he took 211 shots and had a shooting percentage of 14.7%. The last 2 seasons that S% has dropped to ~9%, which is abysmal for someone averaging over 200 shots a season. The problem is with Tage, Cozens becomes a bit redundant in that shooter role. They both want to line up in the exact same spot on the powerplay but Thompson has more of an Ovi-esque shot.

I think Cozens absolutely has that ability be a consistent 30+ goal 70+ point player in the NHL. That and factor in that he is just a workhorse of a player too, I think he is absolutely worth targeting if drafting a legitimate 1C is unrealistic.

 

[Kielbasa]

I think get where @Darth Vladar is coming from though. The contingency plan is 4x 2C if we can't get a bonafide 1C. That's valid.

But I also assume you're saying that if we can get 4x 2C, just pay the price to get a 1C.

Is that correct? If so, you're talking same page different paragraph. I'm pretty sure @Darth Vladar isn't saying that we should settle with what we have right now for C. I'm saying that he perceives that after two drafts, if we don't have a 1C, then go back to jack of all trades backbone.

I think he's talking contingency, not primary plan. I think you're talking primary plan, not contingency. TBH, I think the two of you are mostly agreeable.

I get were your coming from, but I see it differently. Since they would have to lock into those guys contractually, and you have to give up significant assets for Cozens, it doesn't really come across as a contingency plan. This would be the makeup of the Flames for 3+ years at that point.

Its my position that they need to start drafting centres ASAP, and a lot of them. Since management is very clear that they aren't interested in tanking, next best thing (IMO) is to try and make up for pick quality in the aggregate by drafting as much as possible.

Sorry if I came off a little combative . I know I'm new around here and maybe I shouldnt have jumped in with both feet.

 

[Kielbasa]

I think it's ridiculous to write off a guy who put up 31 goals and 68 points as a 21/22 year old as not being 1B capable. The year he scored 31 he took 211 shots and had a shooting percentage of 14.7%. The last 2 seasons that S% has dropped to ~9%, which is abysmal for someone averaging over 200 shots a season. The problem is with Tage, Cozens becomes a bit redundant in that shooter role. They both want to line up in the exact same spot on the powerplay but Thompson has more of an Ovi-esque shot.

I think Cozens absolutely has that ability be a consistent 30+ goal 70+ point player in the NHL. That and factor in that he is just a workhorse of a player too, I think he is absolutely worth targeting if drafting a legitimate 1C is unrealistic.

Yeah I'm pretty low on Cozens, and maybe being unfair. I've watched some tape and have not been that impressed, but I should probably give him the courtesy of a deeper dive.

That being said, his underlyings have about the same in the last three seasons, so possession wise he's generally a 50% CF and OZs start guy, which is fine but not dominant. He's also averaging five giveaways for every takeaway this year which is... Not great.

How many guys have an early breakout year that they never can recreate? Versus how many guys have an early breakout year that they eventually regain form after a multi-year slump?

Those are genuine questions, not sure how I'd run the analysis though.

 

[Figgy44]

I get were your coming from, but I see it differently. Since they would have to lock into those guys contractually, and you have to give up significant assets for Cozens, it doesn't really come across as a contingency plan. This would be the makeup of the Flames for 3+ years at that point.

Its my position that they need to start drafting centres ASAP, and a lot of them. Since management is very clear that they aren't interested in tanking, next best thing (IMO) is to try and make up for pick quality in the aggregate by drafting as much as possible.

Sorry if I came off a little combative . I know I'm new around here and maybe I shouldnt have jumped in with both feet.

Nah, it's cool. Always great to have someone willing to be passionate about their opinion.

Things are usually louder. I think we've been a little quieter lately with all of the bad news off ice wise (ie: Snowy, Gaudreau, coaches, player lawsuits etc.) and the current performance of the team. It'll probably get livelier as more time goes by and if there's playoffs and off season.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Yeah I'm pretty low on Cozens, and maybe being unfair. I've watched some tape and have not been that impressed, but I should probably give him the courtesy of a deeper dive.

That being said, his underlyings have about the same in the last three seasons, so possession wise he's generally a 50% CF and OZs start guy, which is fine but not dominant. He's also averaging five giveaways for every takeaway this year which is... Not great.

How many guys have an early breakout year that they never can recreate? Versus how many guys have an early breakout year that they eventually regain form after a multi-year slump?

Those are genuine questions, not sure how I'd run the analysis though.

Look I get your concerns but I think you need to look at the whole picture. Is it Cozens specifically or is it the team he's on.

I also think giveaway vs takeaway count is very misleading. Giveaways often represent who carries the puck the most and not whether a player is good or bad defensively. For example, Weegar has by far the most giveaways on our team this season, but he is also on of the strongest defensive dmen in the league. Ras has the 2nd most giveaways too. I think this shows more how badly rely on those 2 to generate any sort of offense up ice.

As for slumping after a breakout season at 21, it's pretty rare but Bergeron had 70 points at the same age then followed it up with a 39 point season a year later. Probably not the best example though since he's kinda of a special case of a player. Gabe Landeskog had a few bad years after a 65 point season at 21. Petr Nedvad dropped down to 20 points (in 21 games) and then 23 points in 46 games after his breakout year with the Canucks. When he went to the Pens he exploded again. Vyacheslav Kozlov struggled then turned it around again too. DeBrincat and Tanguay also come to mind as good examples.

There's always the risk he becomes another Devin Setoguchi but I think they chances of that are slim.

 

[Volica]

There's always the risk he becomes another Devin Setoguchi but I think they chances of that are slim.

I mean, to be fair the Guch (you know how to pronounce it) played with Jumbo in prime Jumbo years. The year after they acquired Heater who was a 40 goal man himself so an easy replacement for Devin.

Cozens doesn't play with a Jumbo.

 

[Kielbasa]

Look I get your concerns but I think you need to look at the whole picture. Is it Cozens specifically or is it the team he's on.

I also think giveaway vs takeaway count is very misleading. Giveaways often represent who carries the puck the most and not whether a player is good or bad defensively. For example, Weegar has by far the most giveaways on our team this season, but he is also on of the strongest defensive dmen in the league. Ras has the 2nd most giveaways too. I think this shows more how badly rely on those 2 to generate any sort of offense up ice.

As for slumping after a breakout season at 21, it's pretty rare but Bergeron had 70 points at the same age then followed it up with a 39 point season a year later. Probably not the best example though since he's kinda of a special case of a player. Gabe Landeskog had a few bad years after a 65 point season at 21. Petr Nedvad dropped down to 20 points (in 21 games) and then 23 points in 46 games after his breakout year with the Canucks. When he went to the Pens he exploded again. Vyacheslav Kozlov struggled then turned it around again too. DeBrincat and Tanguay also come to mind as good examples.

There's always the risk he becomes another Devin Setoguchi but I think they chances of that are slim.

Yeah, maybe I should give some credance to him being Buffalo'd. I don't think it's the worst bet, but it's a big bet and you lock yourself into it for a while. I'd rather put that faith in the Flames' amateur scouting and development teams tbh.

Regarding the giveaway/takeaway count, I think your argument is much more persuasive when talking about D men than forwards. Andersson and Weegar play like 25 min a night and are the primarily outlet passers on their pairings on a relatively undynamic transition team. It makes sense why they would rack up giveaways. Cozens is definitely not in that situation, so what's driving those giveaways?

I will note that he hemorrhages HDCA. His career average for HDCF% is around 45%, 42% this year which is almost -7% relative to team average. He's 2nd on BUF for HDCA/60 at 4.6, only Tuch gives up more. Also 46% of his giveaways are in the defensive zone.

 

[Figgy44]

In regards to Cozens, IMO due to the combination of being Buffalo'ed and his natural talent, I honestly don't think he's a bonafide 1C. IMO he's basically Lindholm 2.0.

I'd want to acquire him and utilize him in the same way we did Lindholm. I wouldn't want to acquire him as a 1C with no contingency plans (ie: struggles had with Monahan as 1C/shared 1C responsibilities).

Low end 1C at best, good 2C, a guy you'd prefer to have as first line wing, but can do a passable job at 1C or a good job at 2C. A type of guy you'd always want more of than less, but not a type of guy you'd be confident in just throwing him at other team's top lines every night (just some nights).

If the acquisition cost is reasonable/cheap or doesn't involve a C, absolutely go for him. If not, don't paint ourselves into a corner and keep options open.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Yeah, maybe I should give some credance to him being Buffalo'd. I don't think it's the worst bet, but it's a big bet and you lock yourself into it for a while. I'd rather put that faith in the Flames' amateur scouting and development teams tbh.

Regarding the giveaway/takeaway count, I think your argument is much more persuasive when talking about D men than forwards. Andersson and Weegar play like 25 min a night and are the primarily outlet passers on their pairings on a relatively undynamic transition team. It makes sense why they would rack up giveaways. Cozens is definitely not in that situation, so what's driving those giveaways?

I will note that he hemorrhages HDCA. His career average for HDCF% is around 45%, 42% this year which is almost -7% relative to team average. He's 2nd on BUF for HDCA/60 at 4.6, only Tuch gives up more. Also 46% of his giveaways are in the defensive zone.

Well for giveaways while you are right about those 2 playing 25 minutes a night and them being our primary outlet passers its also worth noting how many they actually have in comparison. Weegar has 102 giveaways this season and Andersson has 78. Meanwhile Cozens has 50 giveaways. I think for Cozens the number seems high because he is the primary puck carrier on his line. He's spent the majority of the year playing with 2 of Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, and JJ Peterka. If you look at last years stats when Kadri played the majority of the season with 2 rookies he had the 2nd most giveaways on the team, only behind Weegar. My point being that as the center of 2 other guys with still very little NHL experience it becomes his responsibility to play initiate breakouts. And as a young player himself that can probably be quite challenging. Put him with some more experienced players and I think he would thrive.

 

[Rubi]

Dylan Cozens is not a 1C.
Paying anything more than what a 2C is worth would be a huge mistake.

 

[Figgy44]

Dylan Cozens is not a 1C.
Paying anything more than what a 2C is worth would be a huge mistake.

And what do you think a bonafide 2C is worth? IIRC, in the past, 2C were going for like 2 late firsts or a mid first and a second round pick at minimum?

I'm going based on memory for Granlund, Dubois and Newhook trades.

Based on what I read from some NYR fans, it seems Miller was moved for quite a bit as a 1C. The first from NYR might be a mid first. Chytil is worth a bit (maybe late first?) and the dman it seems has raised his stock to be worth maybe a second round pick. There was also a slightly discount since it seemed Miller perhaps only wanted to go to a select few teams.

If those rates/values are in line with your expectations, then yeah. If we can get Cozens for a late first and extra, I consider it. If not... I prefer we pass.

I'm almost thinking I'd like to consider something like Pospisil and 2nd. As much as I like Pospisil, I'd have concerns about his long term health. If management has similar concerns, I'd hope they dangle that idea. If no concerns about his health, ignore me, I'm wrong.

 

[Darth Vladar]

Dylan Cozens is not a 1C.
Paying anything more than what a 2C is worth would be a huge mistake.

$7.1M for the next five years when the cap is going up is essentially 2C money.

 

[Kielbasa]

Well for giveaways while you are right about those 2 playing 25 minutes a night and them being our primary outlet passers its also worth noting how many they actually have in comparison. Weegar has 102 giveaways this season and Andersson has 78. Meanwhile Cozens has 50 giveaways. I think for Cozens the number seems high because he is the primary puck carrier on his line. He's spent the majority of the year playing with 2 of Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, and JJ Peterka. If you look at last years stats when Kadri played the majority of the season with 2 rookies he had the 2nd most giveaways on the team, only behind Weegar. My point being that as the center of 2 other guys with still very little NHL experience it becomes his responsibility to play initiate breakouts. And as a young player himself that can probably be quite challenging. Put him with some more experienced players and I think he would thrive.

Honestly I agree with you in theory. I just couldn't find the right stats on zone entries and progressive passes to confirm. Nor have I watched tape enough to say one way or another.

What insights I can glean from the stats is not great for Cozens. Peterka and Cozens actually have almost the same number of giveaways and takeaways; (50-12) and (53-12) respectively. Quinn is a little behind at (32-8). If we use that as a proxy it means that the transition responsibility is shared roughly evenly.

What's noticeable is how many defensive zone giveaways Cozens has, and how frequently his giveaways are in his own end. He's coughed up 23 D-zone giveaways, good for 46% of his total giveaways. That's more by count and percentage than any forward on either the Flames of Sabres. The next closest on the Sabres is Peterka by count (17/53, 32%) or Krebs by percentage (12/29, 41%). On the Flames its Huberdeau by count (19/63, 30%) and Sharangovich by percentage (14/34, 41%).

Takeaways vs giveways is also not great for Cozens (12/50, 24%) ranks him bottom third for forwards on the Sabres, and would be dead last on the Flames.

Put whatever you stock you want in that, but it's not a very good look for Cozens.

Edit: these numbers came from moneypuck, assumed minimum of 400 min played.