Speculation: Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

[crackdown44]

Both should normalize somewhat, right?
We have the 2nd best SV% 5v5 in the NHL.
We have the 3rd lowest SH% 5v5 in the NHL.
Our PDO is right in the middle of the league.

Telling us that a move to the mean would pretty much have us in the same result.

It's actually really funny, that this team when sorting for SH% is surrounded by teams that get caved in mostly 5v5. We are a flat out 50% club.

I agree with @Tkachuk Norris though. This team needs probably 2 or 3 elite pieces still. They got the goalie box checked. They might have a defender box checked with the young man in the OHL. Up front they need to add some big pieces here, and it's going to be interesting how they do it.

Agreed to an extent. I think truly elite goalies in the NHL will always get you average at worst, top ten being the minimum norm. But with every passing year, the number of goalies that can consistently do that drops.

Agree with both of you all I was trying to say is that it’s not fair to say this team will start scoring but goaltending will continue to be lights out. Both probably revert back a bit but the reality is our goalie is sick and our forwards aren’t so we’re probably right around where we should be

 

[Rubi]

So many posters seem to be excited about this team and possible player development and future playoff and cup possibilities.

Maybe I'm a glass half empty kind of guy but I'm finding it extremely difficult to get on the bandwagon as I see a team with a possibly elite goalie surrounded by average to below average NHL'ers who have difficulty scoring on a regular basis, and in order to win have to hustle their asses off every minute of the game and have to play near perfect mistake free hockey to give themselves a chance to win.... And that's in the regular season. The outlook looks dimmer in the playoffs when everyone ups their game .

The chances are extremely high that this team won't have a single 30 goal scorer on the roster. That's pitiful. Also we have dmen playing on the top 2 pairings that have no right to be there. Any other team and they'd be getting 3rd pairing minutes. We do have some nice prospects in the pipeline but I just don't see anyone that's a game breaker who opposing players and fans fear every time he has the puck on his stick. IMHO in order to have a legitimate change at winning the cup you, 9 times out of 10, need that type of player on your team.

For me, right now, I see a future chock full of mediocrity and disappointment.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

So many posters seem to be excited about this team and possible player development and future playoff and cup possibilities.

Maybe I'm a glass half empty kind of guy but I'm finding it extremely difficult to get on the bandwagon as I see a team with a possibly elite goalie surrounded by average to below average NHL'ers who have difficulty scoring on a regular basis, and in order to win have to hustle their asses off every minute of the game and have to play near perfect mistake free hockey to give themselves a chance to win.... And that's in the regular season. The outlook looks dimmer in the playoffs when everyone ups their game .

The chances are extremely high that this team won't have a single 30 goal scorer on the roster. That's pitiful. Also we have dmen playing on the top 2 pairings that have no right to be there. Any other team and they'd be getting 3rd pairing minutes. We do have some nice prospects in the pipeline but I just don't see anyone that's a game breaker who opposing players and fans fear every time he has the puck on his stick. IMHO in order to have a legitimate change at winning the cup you, 9 times out of 10, need that type of player on your team.

For me, right now, I see a future chock full of mediocrity and disappointment.

Honestly I completely understand where you’re coming from and for years before this year I had the same mindset.

But what changed for me is that Conroy DID make almost all the moves that a rebuilding team should/would make. We traded almost half of our roster, accumulated tons of picks and prospects (multiple firsts in three straight years is a massive boost to our prospect pool/long-term outlook), and let our young guys take big roles to the point where guys like Wolf/Zary/Coronato are three of our best players.

I fully did not expect us to be a playoff team this year and was ready to sell Rasmus for one more first and get that top-5 pick. But now that we’re here and we’ve outperformed expectations significantly over the first 50 games of this season, I think myself and most fans are starting to develop a bit of an “anything can happen with elite goaltending when you make the playoffs” type of attitude. It’s exciting to know that we could be in the midst of a Cinderella season despite selling of how our roster over the past year. Wolf’s elite rookie year is giving shades of Kipper’s insane 1.69 GAA 03-04 run.

However, this is not to say that I think we have the roster to contend year after year or that the rebuild/retool should be over. I think there’s a very good chance we regress next year and should then sell off guys like Rasmus and Kadri to complete the rebuild and get one or two top-5 picks over the next 3 years. But right now I’m just excited to have a GM that understands that we need to get younger, is putting together a great drafting resume, and seems to still understand that we have a long way to go to be actual contenders.

That’s why I’m glass half full and am just excited about this season without thinking that it may set our rebuild back slightly. And even if it does set our rebuild back slightly because we’re getting a worse pick than we could’ve, this detriment is offset by the experience that our young guys will get by putting together a strong 82 games at this point in their careers

 

[Anglesmith]

I think the last stretch, the Flames have definitely been slightly unlucky. Thinking about the Washington and Detroit games specifically, they generated multiple odd man rushes, but more importantly than that they were very consistently able to generate slot chances.

Not like point-blank chances between the hash marks, but those chances where they get the puck on the stick of a decent shooter with the defence backed in, he gets time and space to walk in a bit and pick a spot, the other skaters have time to create traffic, and the shot comes in with a decent chance of going in.... and the Flames have basically gone 0-for on dozens of those chances which historically go in fairly regularly.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Those “results” also say Columbus and Washington are two of the best offensive teams in the league, I’ll match whatever bet you make that Washington isn’t going to be the 3rd best offense next season and Columbus won’t be the 8th. It takes zero effort to look passed “results” to see what’s unsustainable, and Calgary’s offensive numbers are firmly in that group with Washington, Columbus, and Montreal’s offense not being sustainable, and Nashville, us, NYR, and Pittsburgh being massively due for positive regression.

Every year players and teams make fans have terrible takes based on massive outliers in these “results”, it’s why everyone who hopped on making fun of Edmonton to start this season is looking terrible currently unfortunately.

Plus it takes anyone a half second to see the quality of competition, percent of home games, and team rest Wolf gets instead of Vladar. Wild is obviously the better goalie, but it’s foolish to say we lose all of Wolf’s games if Vladar starts when he finally gets easier completion. Just like it was plain terrible to say we are obviously a bottom 5 team without Wolf.

Your argument is just pure nonsense. Underlying numbers and sustainability are worthless argument when we are talking about what has already happened. If this was about the rest of the season then sure, but it's simply not. We know exactly what happened in every game the Flames have played so far and it is factual that Calgary has massively struggled to score nearly every single game. Also the argument of workload is outdated. They stopped sheltering Wolf in that regard by the end of November.

It's really simple, in 30 games Wolf has a GSAx of +20, and in 22 games Vladar has a -6. Even if we got completely average goaltending that would still be nearly 1 extra goal against per game in any of his starts. There are many games where we won 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 with an EN, or made it to OT. With Vladar those games would have all almost certainly been losses.

 

[Dack]

I don't get the "The Flames are better offensively than they've shown" argument.

The majority of models I've seen have them bottom 10 in XGF/60. They may be on the cusp of leaving the bottom 10 after a few unusually strong games in the last month.

But also, if you had me choose a few teams that would underperform their XGF/60 before the season started the Flames would've been one of my 1st choices. They don't generate many dangerous passes and they lack finishing talent.

 

[Bounces R Way]

I like Kadri. But he’s a 2C in this league, especially on a contender. He has a low shooting percentage because he almost never makes a pass to a higher danger player. He is probably the most selfish player in the league in this regard. He’s effective but I don’t expect him to start lighting it up any time soon.

The Flames lack elite forwards, Huberdeau is the closest thing they have and he’s more a low end first liner at this point. Zary and Coronato look well on their way to being legit top 6 guys. There is no statistic you can point to that is going to convince me that this team is all of a sudden going to be anything more than a bottom 1/3 offensive team. They just don’t have the pieces.

So many posters seem to be excited about this team and possible player development and future playoff and cup possibilities.

Maybe I'm a glass half empty kind of guy but I'm finding it extremely difficult to get on the bandwagon as I see a team with a possibly elite goalie surrounded by average to below average NHL'ers who have difficulty scoring on a regular basis, and in order to win have to hustle their asses off every minute of the game and have to play near perfect mistake free hockey to give themselves a chance to win.... And that's in the regular season. The outlook looks dimmer in the playoffs when everyone ups their game .

The chances are extremely high that this team won't have a single 30 goal scorer on the roster. That's pitiful. Also we have dmen playing on the top 2 pairings that have no right to be there. Any other team and they'd be getting 3rd pairing minutes. We do have some nice prospects in the pipeline but I just don't see anyone that's a game breaker who opposing players and fans fear every time he has the puck on his stick. IMHO in order to have a legitimate change at winning the cup you, 9 times out of 10, need that type of player on your team.

For me, right now, I see a future chock full of mediocrity and disappointment.

Conroy has shed nearly 20 million of cap, looks to have knocked an entire draft out of the park, accrued two more 1sts in the next two drafts, successfully onboarded the young players that are vital to any sustained success, has now traded for two more age appropriate fwds with lots of team control for nothing nailed down, and has what was a vet group in total disarray playing cohesive and constructive hockey.

Like, I don't know exactly what there is to be upset about here? That an elite center hasn't fallen out of the sky into Craig's lap in his short two season term?

 

[Sparky93]

Are we going to do something crazy with Buffalo? Weekes is speculating something is happening in Buffalo and LeBrun said the Flames are still interested in Cozens.

Coincidentally, MacKenzie is saying the draft is weak, outside the top 20 and Thompson just went down.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Are we going to do something crazy with Buffalo? Weekes is speculating something is happening in Buffalo and LeBrun said the Flames are still interested in Cozens.

Coincidentally, MacKenzie is saying the draft is weak, outside the top 20 and Thompson just went down.

There's a lot of smoke. Has been for a while.

 

[Sparky93]

I can't even imagine what that trade would look like. I would have to think it would be bigger than just Cuzens because the pieces we'd have to consider moving aren't what you'd want to give up for a struggling played, regardless of pedigree.

 

[Darth Vladar]

There's a lot of smoke. Has been for a while.

I mean, Backs ain’t getting any younger. Once he has ridden off into the sunset, I wouldn’t mind rolling something like a Naz-Frosty-Coz-Kerins down the middle.

 

[Volica]

The Cozens thing isn't going away for a while. I just think he's their #1 target; and it checks a lot of boxes for them.

I just can't see how this comes together without a third team, and a futures related trade kind of thing.
Something along the lines of:

Calgary: Cozens
Buffalo: A couple solid pieces, including an age-appropriate player that fits their team.
Team 3: Futures from Calgary

 

[Rubi]

Cozens may be the best available young center, if he is in fact available at a reasonable cost, but I'm not convinced he's "the guy".... the 1C that we've all been looking for. His digression over the last two seasons bothers me. But then, without that digression, he likely wouldn't be a possible trade target.
Best you can do, I guess, is make the trade if the ask is reasonable and hope for the best. I'm not getting my hopes up though. Dealing with Kevin Adams is like trying to negotiate a fair deal for both sides with Donald Trump.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

The Cozens thing isn't going away for a while. I just think he's their #1 target; and it checks a lot of boxes for them.

I just can't see how this comes together without a third team, and a futures related trade kind of thing.
Something along the lines of:

Calgary: Cozens
Buffalo: A couple solid pieces, including an age-appropriate player that fits their team.
Team 3: Futures from Calgary

I was wondering if team 3 could be a Kadri reunion with Colorado. Gets way more complicated.

 

[Sparky93]

I was wondering if team 3 could be a Kadri reunion with Colorado. Gets way more complicated.

I can't really imagine Kadri returning useful pieces to a Cuzens deal. We already own two late 1st rounders. I don't think Kadri returns the young roster player that the Sabres would want.

 

[Mobiandi]

Don't think you can get Cozens without giving up Coronato. It's a tricky trade but unless Conroy catches another GM sleeping, I don't see how we else we can put together a trade for Cozens.

I'm looking at the Sabres depth chart man... I still don't understand how they're this bad.

 

[Rubi]

Don't think you can get Cozens without giving up Coronato. It's a tricky trade but unless Conroy catches another GM sleeping, I don't see how we else we can put together a trade for Cozens.

I'm looking at the Sabres depth chart man... I still don't understand how they're this bad.

I'm thinking Kevin Adams would ask for a young replacement center such as Zary.

 

[crackdown44]

Giving up coronato or Zary in a cozens deal would be disgusting. He’s overpaid for what he currently brings and if he’s ever going to provide top line upside it’s probably as a winger, not a center

Would be an awful trade

 

[Volica]

I'm looking at the Sabres depth chart man... I still don't understand how they're this bad.

I mean, it's not that hard.
It's a bunch of sub 26 year olds, mostly early 20somes who've gone right into professional hockey playing for a dog shit organization who know very little what it takes to be an actual pro.

I think of how Chicago did it when they started their dynasty.

Half their team played together in the AHL for 2-3 seasons.
The had really good veterans, Havlat, Campbell and Khabibulin.

There was a natural progression to things.

This team is just 'throw a bunch of high draft picks into a blender and hope it works out for the best.'

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I can't really imagine Kadri returning useful pieces to a Cuzens deal. We already own two late 1st rounders. I don't think Kadri returns the young roster player that the Sabres would want.

Shhh, don't ruin my dreams of the quantity for quality bamboozle that Conroy cooks up.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Actually, you need to check your math. I’ve never been a huge stats person for most things in life, especially sports, I think anecdotal evidence is far more meaningful.
However, you’re making a shit ton of assumptions math lord..
A) assuming that Nazem will continue to collect the same proportion of points of the goals while he’s on the ice, if his on ice shooting percentage increases dramatically.
B) assuming that he has the talent he has in past years surrounding him.

You always do this. You find obscure stats that confirm your bias. Last you were going off about how Vladar was way better than Wolf. That comparing Wolf to Markstrom was an absolute joke.

You add red herrings in the form of stats, instead of actually addressing the crux of my argument which is that the Flames lack elite offensive talent.

But if you really want to go and convince yourself Nazem Kadri is Nate MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov, or Connor McDavid. Go ahead. But it makes you look like a jackass.

The Flames don’t have elite talent. That’s why they struggle to score. They play a low risk dump and chase style. They don’t hold onto pucks at the blue line and try to make fancy plays. They try to make high percentage plays, get goals on screens and deflections. And they try to play mistake free hockey. And they are doing a good job at it. Because they simply don’t have the talent to convert on as high a percentage of chances as other teams.

Nah you just aren’t that good at following math, which is completely reasonable considering half the population aren’t math brained. Ironically you are referencing a stat and you just don’t realize it, it’s called IPP. I’ll humor you and assume his IPP would drop down to his average numbers, and using just his average on ice percentages, that’s still 48 points in 52 games. You can beat around the bush all you want, but anecdotal evidence has a lot more bias than just presenting numbers.

You also keep using cherry picked wrong, so I’ll help you out there. Cherry picking data is only using a select set of data to support one’s position, while ignoring any data that tends to counter one’s position. For example, someone says we are a terrible team at generating offense, so they use one stat and stick to it. Then when more stats are presented (like Sh%, OISh%, xGF, shots for, Corsi, chances generated so far), they ignore them, and dig in to their stance. It’s also called the backfire effect, where seeing information that go against your beliefs, actually makes people stand more firm on their beliefs and being dismissive of the the evidence.

Nobody is saying Kadri is McDavid that’s just nonsensical. This is what you like to do, blow things out of proportion and then resort to name calling when your beliefs get challenged. Funny to say check your math though, when you in no way, shape, or form even started diving in to numbers yourself.

 

[Yepthatsme]

This team is riding goaltending (primarily Wolf) to compete for the 2nd wildcard spot and if he had a 14-14-2 record (so lost 5 games that he won) this team would be tied for bottom 5 so it is kind of obvious.

You already played the the Flames are due for a positive improvement in offence during the offseason using the same stats and yet the Flames' offence is in the bottom 1/2 of the league for the 3rd season and its getting worse each year, there is NO positive improvement coming, as the younger players coming in are not driving net new offence. This trend is not going to change as long as Calgary looks at Kadri, Huberdeau, Backlund, Coleman, Andersson and Weegar as CORE pieces that they will not trade.

If we lost more games, we’d be a worse a team is something. Flames are actually right relatively close to where we should be when it comes to goals against. 14th in GA per game compared to 18th in xGA/60. This is mostly due to while Wolf is boosting us with 12.5GSAx, Vladar is actually dragging us down -4.2. It’s also because both goalies to an extent have been doing worse than they should be on the PK.

Most of our lost offense has come from Mantha being gone for the season (was at a 27 goal pace when he dropped which is right where I put him this offseason ironically), and Kuzmenko turning back into pre trade Kuzmenko which I was too optimistic on. I think I had us at ~270 goals, we are currently on pace for 222 so those two make up a large chunk considering they were replaced by the ghost of Kuzmenko and Pospisil in the top 9. Ironically once again our xGF which everyone loves around here is 18th where I had us finishing between 10th and 16th, so I’m actually not crazy far off there when it comes to expected results.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Your argument is just pure nonsense. Underlying numbers and sustainability are worthless argument when we are talking about what has already happened. If this was about the rest of the season then sure, but it's simply not. We know exactly what happened in every game the Flames have played so far and it is factual that Calgary has massively struggled to score nearly every single game. Also the argument of workload is outdated. They stopped sheltering Wolf in that regard by the end of November.

It's really simple, in 30 games Wolf has a GSAx of +20, and in 22 games Vladar has a -6. Even if we got completely average goaltending that would still be nearly 1 extra goal against per game in any of his starts. There are many games where we won 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 with an EN, or made it to OT. With Vladar those games would have all almost certainly been losses.

I just don’t think you’re following at all. Underlying numbers can tell whether results are indicative of quality of play, or whether there was other factors at play. No post is claiming that we are magically going to rewrite the past, but it can tell you if what we’ve seen is what we are likely to see. That’s what “unsustainable” means. Like in my previous post, it’s the reason that you probably shouldn’t put a large wager on Washington winning the cup next year, or that Columbus and Montreal have gotten over the hump and are finally good teams. It’s also the reason I wouldn’t go gloating over how bad NYR and Nashville have been because they’re primed for some extreme positive regression. Yet you point out that Calgary has plenty of indicators that say we are in the positive regression group and not pretend bubble teams like Montreal and Columbus, and everyone who sold the farm guaranteeing we’d be awful this offseason is full of vitriol.

 

[Lunatik]

So Cozens...

I agree with @Volica that it'd need to be a 3-team deal, but I have no idea who that team could be.... it feels like more teams are trying to exit rebuilds than enter them. Maybe NYI and Barzal to BUF? PGH? But I have no idea who could go to BUF. PHI again?

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Nah you just aren’t that good at following math, which is completely reasonable considering half the population aren’t math brained. Ironically you are referencing a stat and you just don’t realize it, it’s called IPP. I’ll humor you and assume his IPP would drop down to his average numbers, and using just his average on ice percentages, that’s still 48 points in 52 games. You can beat around the bush all you want, but anecdotal evidence has a lot more bias than just presenting numbers.

You also keep using cherry picked wrong, so I’ll help you out there. Cherry picking data is only using a select set of data to support one’s position, while ignoring any data that tends to counter one’s position. For example, someone says we are a terrible team at generating offense, so they use one stat and stick to it. Then when more stats are presented (like Sh%, OISh%, xGF, shots for, Corsi, chances generated so far), they ignore them, and dig in to their stance. It’s also called the backfire effect, where seeing information that go against your beliefs, actually makes people stand more firm on their beliefs and being dismissive of the the evidence.

Nobody is saying Kadri is McDavid that’s just nonsensical. This is what you like to do, blow things out of proportion and then resort to name calling when your beliefs get challenged. Funny to say check your math though, when you in no way, shape, or form even started diving in to numbers yourself.

So Nazem’s IPP is 83% at all strengths. 95 5 on 5. That’s obnoxiously high. His career average is around 60. So while his on ice shooting percentage might normalize. So will the IPP. And we are looking at a 60ish point player like he usually is. Also according to Natural Stat Trick his on ice shooting percentage is 7.75 all strengths (which isn’t too far off his career norms at about 10)

But continue to be a condescending know it all that thinks he is the smartest person in the room. Continue to enlighten our fan base how this team is actually elite offensively, they just have bad luck. How numbers avoid bias. And how the Flames are flush with elite scores.