Speculation: Are we nearing the end of the 7/8 year deals for players close to 30?

[tiburon12]

There are about 65 players in the league singed to 7/8 year contracts that were signed at age 27 or older. Of those, about half are a contract that is not, or isn't on pace to be, a boat anchor for the team and, as a result, the player.

As a Sharks fan, our team is the prime example of mistakes made giving out these contracts. Each of Couture, Burns, Vlasic, Karlsson, Kane, and Hertl's contracts fit this category and came back to bite the Sharks, all but one of which they are still eating the consequences of some 8 years later. Remember, Karlsson won the Norris and had no value because of his contract.

Just this off season, we've seen Skinner and Atkinson bought out, Trouba (likely) on the move, and Goodrow discarded (6 years contract, but still) just because of contracts, and that's not even beginning to talk about players on unmovable deals like Tavares, Huberdeau, Doughty, Nurse and so on.

And on top of these deals being bad for teams, they are really limiting to players outside of the immense money. I bet there are tons of players who would like a fresh start or chance in a different org that can't because of a bad contract. All in all, these contracts, more often than not, are limiting and restricting.

So, I know teams operate in a "worry about that later" mentality, but the writing is on the wall: these contracts rarely work out. Will we see an end to this and see more people follow Matthews and take shorter deals?

Here are the contracts. I've bolded the ones I feel are "bad" or represent a mistake that a team tried to get out of.

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Artemi Panarin
3. William Nylander
4. Erik Karlsson
5. David Pastrnak
6. John Tavares
7. Drew Doughty
8. Carey Price
9. Jonathan Huberdeau
10. Sergei Bobrovsky
11. Tyler Seguin
12. Johnny Gaudreau
13. Jamie Benn
14. Mark Stone
15. Seth Jones
16. Darnell Nurse
17. Roman Josi
18. Dougie Hamilton
19. Alex Pietrangelo
20. Filip Forsberg
21. Bo Horvat
22. Mika Zibanejad
23. Mark Scheifele
24. Connor Hellebuyck
25. Ilya Sorokin
26. Tomas Hertl
27. Logan Couture
28. J.T. Miller
29. John Carlson
30. Brent Burns
31. Sean Couturier
32. Jared Spurgeon
33. Morgan Rielly
34. Noah Hanifin
35. Devon Toews
36. Kevin Hayes
37. Anders Lee
38. Marc-Édouard Vlasic
39. Gabriel Landeskog
40. Nazem Kadri
41. Ryan McDonagh
42. Justin Faulk
43. Chris Kreider
44. Torey Krug
45. Colton Parayko
46. Brayden Schenn
47. Tom Wilson
48. Hampus Lindholm
49. Travis Sanheim
50. Ryan Ellis
51. Damon Severson
52. MacKenzie Weegar
53. Ryan Pulock
54. Valeri Nichushkin
55. Brad Marchand
56. Jonas Brodin
57. Gustav Forsling
58. T.J. Oshie
59. Vincent Trocheck
60. Zach Hyman
61. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
62. Scott Mayfield
63. Nicholas Paul
64. Pierre Engvall

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[DFC]

Not if Tampa has anything to say about it.

 

[TBF1972]

no

as long as the hard cap exists and the max contract length stays where it is today. agents and players will push for it and there are no alternatives for teams who want (to keep) a star player.

 

[tiburon12]

no

as long as the hard cap exists and the max contract length stays where it is today. agents and players will push for it and there are no alternatives for teams who want (to keep) a star player.

For star players i don't think it's going anywhere. But non-stars?

Every year we go "wow that will look bad in a few years" and it always does, yet we rinse/repeat over and over

 

[RedRocking]

For start players i don't think it's going anywhere. But non-stars?

Every year we go "wow that will look bad in a few years" and it always does, yet we rinse/repeat over and over

Yea, I actually think about this problem a lot. Especially as I watched my team turn into a retirement home. I guess you just look at is as the “bill coming due” after a decade of contention.

Generally speaking - it is kinda ridiculous that everyone knows these contracts will age terribly the very day they are signed. Teams get boxed-in, just by trying to do right by their stars. Obviously, part of the problem is how long guys have to wait until they get true UFA money. They’re often underpaid in their 20’s, so they get “back pay” in their 30s - even though it’s a totally inefficient practice per traditional aging curves. But that’s a whole other conversation.

It is interesting that guys are taking shorter deals with the new CBA coming up - not sure if this is a trend that will continue. And even if so, it probably only works for the very top players that can withstand the risk.

To your original point about it limiting non-stars - it would be cool if the NHL adopted something akin to the NBA’s mid-level exception, so that non-star players could still move around. Of course, instituting any kind of soft cap would be controversial. But imho it would be good for the league if there was less stagnation, and more player movement. Maybe Vegas is showing everyone else how this can be done, I dunno.

 

[Sparky206]

I wouldn't classify doughy as any sort of mistake, he's had minimal drop off and amazing health over his career. This year he nearly set a career high I goals.

Provides leadership, plays as a producing 1D. Hes a hockey iq player, same a kopitar so they don't loose that as they age.

 

[trick9]

Please do tell why John Carlson -contract is ''bad or represents a mistake''.

 

[Bank Shot]

Zero chance.

Nine 7-8 year contracts for 30+ players have been signed in the last 2 years.

Good players have all the leverage when they are UFAs. There isn't enough talent to go around.

30+ year old players will continue to get these contracts unless the league changes the rules to further limit contract length. Bettman was pushing for 5 year max term during the last CBA negotiation. Apparently he couldn't even get buy in from the teams for this. It would make the league better though.

 

[MikeyMike01]

GMs will always choose a lower AAV over shorter term. The incentives don’t align. The 8th year of that deal is probably someone else’s problem.

 

[tiburon12]

Please do tell why John Carlson -contract is ''bad or represents a mistake''.

Is John Carlson worth 8 million dollars today? was he worht it last year? Was he worth it the year before?

That's why

 

[tiburon12]

I wouldn't classify doughy as any sort of mistake, he's had minimal drop off and amazing health over his career. This year he nearly set a career high I goals.

Provides leadership, plays as a producing 1D. Hes a hockey iq player, same a kopitar so they don't loose that as they age.

I don't think he's worth 11 million dollars, nor is he worth 2 mil more than Makar, and nor will he be any better 3 years down the line when this contract is still going.

 

[Devonator]

I hate these 8 year contracts....I wish they would make a rule that you cannot sign a contract longer then 5 years....it would protect a lot of teams from making some real stupid moves.

 

[JAK]

I hate these 8 year contracts....I wish they would make a rule that you cannot sign a contract longer then 5 years....it would protect a lot of teams from making some real stupid moves.

Then what would the owners give up to the players during the CBA negotiations?

Earlier free agency?

 

[trick9]

Is John Carlson worth 8 million dollars today? was he worht it last year? Was he worth it the year before?

That's why

This season? Yes, played the most minutes in the NHL and helped carry Capitals to the Playoffs.

Last season? Yes, until injury in december. Hit in the head with a puck, team fell apart without him.

The year before? Yes. 10th in Norris -voting.

The year before that? Received Norris -votes again.

The year before that? Received Hart -votes and finished 2nd in Norris -voting.

The year before that (1st of his contract): Finished 4th in Norris -voting.

I assume you don't follow the East that much?

 

[tiburon12]

This season? Yes, played the most minutes in the NHL and helped carry Capitals to the Playoffs.

Last season? Yes, until december. Hit in the head with a puck, team fell apart without him.

The year before? Yes. 10th in Norris -voting.

2 seasons ago he was worth it, and every year since he's been worse. He will only start to decline (obv puck to head is not his fault or indicative of previous health concerns) and deteriorate playing all those minutes. That was the point.

But fine, to make you happy you can take Carlson off the list. It doesn't affect the topic at hand in any way.

All I know is that I wouldn't pay that guy 8 million for the next two seasons.

 

[KingsFan7824]

No. You give out the 7/8 year deal because if you don't, you don't get the player, and non-completely rebuilding GMs, which most of them are at any given time, want to get the player. And due to the cap, the most important thing is keeping the cap hit down as much as possible, so that you can fill out the rest of the roster. You want years 1-3 for the guys getting close to 30, but you have to pay for years 5/6/7/8. That's just the industry. Every team goes through it. If you haven't yet, or recently, just wait. It's going to happen if you want any talent.

It would be great if you could squeeze everything out of a guy until 27, trade him a year too early at his peak value for the hot shot 20 year old top 10 scorer, and you keep rolling along, never missing a beat. There's only so many players, and only so many teams though.

Florida lucked out, and look where they're at. Hubedeau had a great year, at the same time that Tkachuk had a great year in Calgary, and wanted out. If Tkachuk was content in Calgary, the Panthers probably re-sign Huberdeau to the stupid contract, and there's no Cup. Or, if Huberdeau has his average year, kind of a pt/game play making winger, nearing 30, needing a contract, he doesn't sniff Tkachuk in a trade. Or, of course, if Calgary accepts reality as Tkachuk and Gaudreau are wanting to leave(much like Buffalo needed to when Drury and Briere walked out the door), you get the 20 year old hot shot for the 25 year old Tkachuk. The way the Flyers got Schenn and Simmonds for Richards.

 

[Jumptheshark]

We are waiting on confirmation of the Reinhart signing, He turns 29 when the seasons starts

 

[Chet Manley]

A lot of these will be okay with the cap going back up again.

 

[Grigowski]

54. Valeri Nichushkin

Sorry, but that contract is not "bad"

The problem with that player, and for the AVS, is the off-ice-life and problems of that player.

 

[Djp]

There are about 65 players in the league singed to 7/8 year contracts that were signed at age 27 or older. Of those, about half are a contract that is not, or isn't on pace to be, a boat anchor for the team and, as a result, the player.

As a Sharks fan, our team is the prime example of mistakes made giving out these contracts. Each of Couture, Burns, Vlasic, Karlsson, Kane, and Hertl's contracts fit this category and came back to bite the Sharks, all but one of which they are still eating the consequences of some 8 years later. Remember, Karlsson won the Norris and had no value because of his contract.

Just this off season, we've seen Skinner and Atkinson bought out, Trouba (likely) on the move, and Goodrow discarded (6 years contract, but still) just because of contracts, and that's not even beginning to talk about players on unmovable deals like Tavares, Huberdeau, Doughty, Nurse and so on.

And on top of these deals being bad for teams, they are really limiting to players outside of the immense money. I bet there are tons of players who would like a fresh start or chance in a different org that can't because of a bad contract. All in all, these contracts, more often than not, are limiting and restricting.

So, I know teams operate in a "worry about that later" mentality, but the writing is on the wall: these contracts rarely work out. Will we see an end to this and see more people follow Matthews and take shorter deals?

Here are the contracts. I've bolded the ones I feel are "bad" or represent a mistake that a team tried to get out of.

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Artemi Panarin
3. William Nylander
4. Erik Karlsson
5. David Pastrnak
6. John Tavares
7. Drew Doughty
8. Carey Price
9. Jonathan Huberdeau
10. Sergei Bobrovsky
11. Tyler Seguin
12. Johnny Gaudreau
13. Jamie Benn
14. Mark Stone
15. Seth Jones
16. Darnell Nurse
17. Roman Josi
18. Dougie Hamilton
19. Alex Pietrangelo
20. Filip Forsberg
21. Bo Horvat
22. Mika Zibanejad
23. Mark Scheifele
24. Connor Hellebuyck
25. Ilya Sorokin
26. Tomas Hertl
27. Logan Couture
28. J.T. Miller
29. John Carlson
30. Brent Burns
31. Sean Couturier
32. Jared Spurgeon
33. Morgan Rielly
34. Noah Hanifin
35. Devon Toews
36. Kevin Hayes
37. Anders Lee
38. Marc-Édouard Vlasic
39. Gabriel Landeskog
40. Nazem Kadri
41. Ryan McDonagh
42. Justin Faulk
43. Chris Kreider
44. Torey Krug
45. Colton Parayko
46. Brayden Schenn
47. Tom Wilson
48. Hampus Lindholm
49. Travis Sanheim
50. Ryan Ellis
51. Damon Severson
52. MacKenzie Weegar
53. Ryan Pulock
54. Valeri Nichushkin
55. Brad Marchand
56. Jonas Brodin
57. Gustav Forsling
58. T.J. Oshie
59. Vincent Trocheck
60. Zach Hyman
61. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
62. Scott Mayfield
63. Nicholas Paul
64. Pierre Engvall

O e been saying it for years. This is going to end.

Other than the gate drivers like Crosby or mcdavid. Others just won't get that. There is too much risk and they can be replaced by those 21-25.

You will see Wingerd like how nfl is eith RB. You need to br a 40+ score like ovie or s tkachuk type of player

 

[Kuz]

2 seasons ago he was worth it, and every year since he's been worse. He will only start to decline (obv puck to head is not his fault or indicative of previous health concerns) and deteriorate playing all those minutes. That was the point.

But fine, to make you happy you can take Carlson off the list. It doesn't affect the topic at hand in any way.

All I know is that I wouldn't pay that guy 8 million for the next two seasons.

Then you come to the point that if the Capitals wanted him shorter they probably had to give him 9-10 million the years before. So length vs salary is always a discussion point.

Carlson have not been a problem in any of the 6 seasons so far and since his 8 million contract he is third in the league in Points by defencemen. Only behind Josi and Hedman and tied for 4th in PPG with Hedman behind Makar, Hughes and Josi. Certainly sounds like a defenceman that have been worth his contract.

Then you have a contract like Bobrovsky which was considered one of the worst in the league when he had a bad year and Knight was pushing him out of the team for a little while. Then now after the Stanley and his amazing play things have changed.

 

[SomeDude]

How many GM’s last at their team by the time these long term deals really start to hurt. Hell, there are a few GMs who would consider not dying of old age in the next 8 years to be a win.

They don’t care how bad they’re screwing the team in the future if it extends their job expectancy by an extra year.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

And on top of these deals being bad for teams, they are really limiting to players outside of the immense money. I bet there are tons of players who would like a fresh start or chance in a different org that can't because of a bad contract. All in all, these contracts, more often than not, are limiting and restricting.

I believe players and teams can mutually void a contract. Clearly players don't really care about a fresh start otherwise more of that would happen.

The buyout is the other option.

What may make sense is to make buyouts easier, and maybe soften the cap hit structure. Unlimited and can happen at anytime. I mean, there is no disadvantage to the player, as they get all their money, AND get new opportunities.

The only risk is teams with more money would use it to circumvent the cap more often, but as it isn't really used heavily today, there is room to tweak it.

 

[Curufinwe]

8 years is risky even for a young player. One unlucky injury can make them a shell of the player they were at the time of signing.

I would hope the NHL tries to get the max length down to 6/7 years in the next CBA.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

As long as GMs are ambitious? Hell no.