Are we in Canada paranoid about 2026 or should we not be worried?

[ORRFForever]

I'm not sure I understand the Marchand hate. I understand his production has slowed down a bit but I think he's a good asset and deserves a spot on this team. He plays with an edge, can play a 200ft game up and down a lineup, has a knack for scoring clutch goals and producing in the playoffs. Oh and a natural LW, the FWD position with the least amount of elite options for team Canada.

Not "hate". He WAS awesome. Maybe he still is. I just think we can do better... and younger.

We'll know more in February - I'm not sure he makes the Olympic team.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not "hate". He WAS awesome. Maybe he still is. I just think we can do better... and younger.

We'll know more in February - I'm not sure he makes the Olympic team.

The biggest issue was picking him so early. Those picks are the no doubt guys. Picking a guy who maybe will come good and maybe won’t makes it a failure. Those should be the picks you don’t worry about.

 

[minibrodeur]

The biggest issue was picking him so early. Those picks are the no doubt guys. Picking a guy who maybe will come good and maybe won’t makes it a failure. Those should be the picks you don’t worry about.

I personally think he's a pretty safe pick, has proven chemistry with Crosby, lots of international success. If I were to choose now maybe Reinhart over him, but the picks were made this summer and there was uncertainty he could continue his elite production. Who would you have chosen instead?

 

[ORRFForever]

I personally think he's a pretty safe pick, has proven chemistry with Crosby, lots of international success. If I were to choose now maybe Reinhart over him, but the picks were made this summer and there was uncertainty he could continue his elite production. Who would you have chosen instead?

Like you said, Reinhart. My guess : Hockey Canada would have chosen Stamkos or Tavares.

 

[JackSlater]

Sweeney is the GM of Canada's team at the four nations event, it isn't that shocking that Marchand was picked. It's not the end of the world, he's adequate offensively, can PK, and brings a somewhat different element.

Regarding Mike Smith, he was the expected choice for Canada's third goaltender in 2014. Fleury was not expected as he was pretty much a league average goaltender who had multiple playoff flame outs. In the thread where people predicted Canada's 2014 Olympic roster the majority correctly had Price, Luongo, and Smith as the goaltenders.

 

[minibrodeur]

Not "hate". He WAS awesome. Maybe he still is. I just think we can do better... and younger.

We'll know more in February - I'm not sure he makes the Olympic team.

The 4 nations is a short tournament, I am expecting this team to be an experienced group as durability isn't a big factor. Maturity, role playing, versatility all super important. I would love to see the Bedards, Guenthers and Wyatts but I don't think they're quite ready yet. I don't even think Bouchard makes the team. LAF is real close wouldn't be surprised either way, although fully expect him there in 2026. I think the 4 Nations will give us a pretty good indication on if we need to go younger.

 

[ORRFForever]

Using my AWESOME lineup as an example, you want your players to be in the sweet spot age 25 to 29. With today's conditioning, 30 - 34 is okay. After 35, unless your Sid, you have to do better...

Hagel (26) - McDavid* (27) - Reinhart (29)

Duchene* (33) - MacKinnon (29) - Scheifele* (31)

Marchand (36) - Crosby* (37) - Konecny (27) / Stone (32)

Bennett (28) - Point * (28) - Marner (27)

 

[minibrodeur]

Like you said, Reinhart. My guess : Hockey Canada would have chosen Stamkos or Tavares.

Yea Reinhart now that he's shown last year wasn't a 1 off, but this summer it was much harder to call him a sure thing after he pretty much doubled his career goal totals and went from a 60pt player to a 90 pt player. As for Stamkos and Tavares I can't call them no doubt guys, I'm not sure they even make it.

 

[ORRFForever]

The 4 nations is a short tournament, I am expecting this team to be an experienced group as durability isn't a big factor. Maturity, role playing, versatility all super important. I would love to see the Bedards, Guenthers and Wyatts but I don't think they're quite ready yet. I don't even think Bouchard makes the team. LAF is real close wouldn't be surprised either way, although fully expect him there in 2026. I think the 4 Nations will give us a pretty good indication on if we need to go younger.

I agree, 100%. I see 4 Nations as a dry run for the Olympics.

The question is, especially since Team Canada has won with players in the past, when do you make the change to younger players? It can't be an easy decision.

Yea Reinhart now that he's shown last year wasn't a 1 off, but this summer it was much harder to call him a sure thing after he pretty much doubled his career goal totals and went from a 60pt player to a 90 pt player. As for Stamkos and Tavares I can't call them no doubt guys, I'm not sure they even make it.

I would not have gone with Stamkos or Tavares. I just know Hockey Canada likes to go with guys they know and who've won in the past. That's why I think HC would have named Stamkos or Tavares.

The smart move might have been to name another D-Man - instead of Marchand.

 

[minibrodeur]

I agree, 100%. I see 4 Nations as a dry run for the Olympics.

The question is, especially since Team Canada has won with players in the past, when do you make the change to younger players? It can't be an easy decision.


I would not have gone with Stamkos or Tavares. I just know Hockey Canada likes to go with guys they know and who've won in the past. That's why I think HC would have named Stamkos or Tavares.

The smart move might have been to name another D-Man - instead of Marchand.

Ah totally agree on the Stamkos Tavares/ familiarity thing. I'm also not sure we have another lock on Defence. Toews gets pencilled in because he's a solid 2-way player who has great chemistry with Makar. Morrissey/Theodore/ Pietrangelo? Like they're good players but those choices would also have been criticized.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I personally think he's a pretty safe pick, has proven chemistry with Crosby, lots of international success. If I were to choose now maybe Reinhart over him, but the picks were made this summer and there was uncertainty he could continue his elite production. Who would you have chosen instead?

It’s five picks, right?

Makar, McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Point/Marner

Think those are all extremely safe picks in June or whenever it was picked to still be clear selections in December.

 

[Crosby2010]

Eh.. I always thought Fleury was overrated. The 2016 Run was pretty much all Matt Murray and split the 2017 playoffs with him. He was huge in that 2017 run though, not diminishing that. I guess what I’m trying to argue is that I don’t think Fleury was ever a top 5 goalie in the NHL or if he was, it might have been for a couple of seasons.

From 2006-2011:
I’d have Brodeur, Luongo, Kiprusoff, Lundqvist, Thomas, Miller and Nabokov clearly over him.

To me, Fleury belonged with the Cam Wards, JSGs, Backstroms, Craig Andersons, Brian Elliots, Bryzgalovs and Marty Turcos

From 2011-2019:
Putrid 1st half of the decade by Fleury, solid 2nd half, but are you taking him over:
Price, Lundqvist, Quick, Rinne, Rask, Bob, Vasi?

He belongs in the Ben Bishops, Roberto Luongos, Corey Crawfords, Mike Smiths for me.

Could you argue he was Top 5 in 2021 with his Vezina? Sure? But that means you’re taking him over Vasi, Helleybuyck, Saros, Shersterkin, Bob, Rask, Sorokin, 2021 Playoff Price, and Rinne.

You can definitely argue this season, he may have been better than a handful of those guys, but it’s not clear-cut or “creme de la crop.”

He won the Vezina in 2021, so I think he was among the elite for sure. But his career isn't about the Vezina, or his finishes. It is about longevity, contributions to the team and wins. Also Cups. That's a hard guy to keep out of the HHOF. His career spans a long time and he doesn't really stand out in any particular era as "the" guy. A guy who is 2nd in career wins and then 3rd in playoff wins is going to get in. His highs make up for his lows.

Now that Brayden Point is back from his injury, where do I put him???

My Team Up Front :

Hagel - McDavid*- Reinhart

Duchene* - MacKinnon - Scheifele*

Marchand - Crosby* - Konecny / Stone

Bennett - Point * - Marner

I know you don't like Marner on anything but the 4th line but why? To me you put him somewhere with a sniper like a MacKinnon. I'd even like to see him with McDavid. He's a natural RW, he's a penalty killer, a Selke finalist and you can't deny his skill. He's a puck possession type. Sure the 50 points in 57 playoff games could be better, but Matthews has 48 in 55 games, they aren't keeping him off Team USA right? It isn't as if Marner is Yashin-like in the playoffs. He's been below expectations in the postseason. But he does not need to be the guy on Team Canada. He's maybe, maybe 5th on the forward pecking list. He's got a lot of help.

As for Point you have to put him with a skilled centre I think and move him over to the RW. McDavid or MacKinnon. Even with Crosby. That would be where he'd thrive. Unless you feel he fits the role of a 4th line checker. Either way, that's a 4th line that can and will score.

I’m Canadian and I’ve followed best on best hockey for the last 35-40 years. What I can tell you is that Canada at some point puts up a sour performance on occasion. It typically happens when Canadian hall of farmers are getting too long in the tooth, or the Calvary just hasn’t arrived yet like in 2006. The Americans might have the best talent they have ever had in hockey history for their country. Canada barely beat the USA in 2010 and Canada had pall their best players in their prime. I expect Canada to dissapoint unfortunately.

I think Canada wins, and they have the best team out there. But I will admit that Team USA is bringing those 1996-era vibes that are bothersome for us. 1996 and 1998 are the two years where I looked at their roster with a bit of a lump in my throat. Because they did not have a weakness in any of those years. Lots of skill, size and speed. Plenty of players in their primes and some surprising depth up front and on defense. And their goaltending does beat us.

 

[minibrodeur]

It’s five picks, right?

Makar, McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Point/Marner

Think those are all extremely safe picks in June or whenever it was picked to still be clear selections in December.

It was 6 picks but all 6 you mentioned I think are good options. While I would have been totally fine with those, I'm sure some people would have had issues with Marner as he seems to get roasted every year after the leafs exit the playoffs. In all honesty both players are and should be guaranteed spots on this roster so I personally don't really view his selection as a failure.

 

[centipede2233]

He won the Vezina in 2021, so I think he was among the elite for sure. But his career isn't about the Vezina, or his finishes. It is about longevity, contributions to the team and wins. Also Cups. That's a hard guy to keep out of the HHOF. His career spans a long time and he doesn't really stand out in any particular era as "the" guy. A guy who is 2nd in career wins and then 3rd in playoff wins is going to get in. His highs make up for his lows.



I know you don't like Marner on anything but the 4th line but why? To me you put him somewhere with a sniper like a MacKinnon. I'd even like to see him with McDavid. He's a natural RW, he's a penalty killer, a Selke finalist and you can't deny his skill. He's a puck possession type. Sure the 50 points in 57 playoff games could be better, but Matthews has 48 in 55 games, they aren't keeping him off Team USA right? It isn't as if Marner is Yashin-like in the playoffs. He's been below expectations in the postseason. But he does not need to be the guy on Team Canada. He's maybe, maybe 5th on the forward pecking list. He's got a lot of help.

As for Point you have to put him with a skilled centre I think and move him over to the RW. McDavid or MacKinnon. Even with Crosby. That would be where he'd thrive. Unless you feel he fits the role of a 4th line checker. Either way, that's a 4th line that can and will score.



I think Canada wins, and they have the best team out there. But I will admit that Team USA is bringing those 1996-era vibes that are bothersome for us. 1996 and 1998 are the two years where I looked at their roster with a bit of a lump in my throat. Because they did not have a weakness in any of those years. Lots of skill, size and speed. Plenty of players in their primes and some surprising depth up front and on defense. And their goaltending does beat us.

The Americans have stolarz a Woll as options for now and the 2026 team to. I feel stolarz should be one of their 3 goalies along with helle and Oettinger. I hope helle is the second comming of Ryan miller. Great reg season goalie, but wilts under pressure

 

[ORRFForever]

I know you don't like Marner on anything but the 4th line but why? To me you put him somewhere with a sniper like a MacKinnon. I'd even like to see him with McDavid. He's a natural RW, he's a penalty killer, a Selke finalist and you can't deny his skill. He's a puck possession type. Sure the 50 points in 57 playoff games could be better, but Matthews has 48 in 55 games, they aren't keeping him off Team USA right? It isn't as if Marner is Yashin-like in the playoffs. He's been below expectations in the postseason. But he does not need to be the guy on Team Canada. He's maybe, maybe 5th on the forward pecking list. He's got a lot of help.

As I've said before, after EVERY Leaf playoff run that ends in disaster, posters say, "Marner is useless in big games. I don't want him anywhere near Team Canada". Then, in November, when Marner is on fire, those same forgetful posters want him on Team Canada. (Un)Fortunately, I don't forget. I know what he's like when the games are important.

I am willing to meet half way. Yes, he can be on my team but only on the 4th line - where he can play strong defensive, use his PK expertise and add some scoring.

 

[ORRFForever]

ORRFF Stats Watch (November 26, 2024)

Positives :

* Dylan Guenther with his 10th Goal and 10th Assist.
* Jack McBain with his 8th Goal
* Jake DeBrusk with his 6th Goal.
* Alex Newhook with his 5th Goal.

Goalies :

* Sam Montembeault (Mont) gave up 3 Goals / 29 Shots in the loss to Utah.

 

[Nucks2001]

He won the Vezina in 2021, so I think he was among the elite for sure. But his career isn't about the Vezina, or his finishes. It is about longevity, contributions to the team and wins. Also Cups. That's a hard guy to keep out of the HHOF. His career spans a long time and he doesn't really stand out in any particular era as "the" guy. A guy who is 2nd in career wins and then 3rd in playoff wins is going to get in. His highs make up for his lows.



I know you don't like Marner on anything but the 4th line but why? To me you put him somewhere with a sniper like a MacKinnon. I'd even like to see him with McDavid. He's a natural RW, he's a penalty killer, a Selke finalist and you can't deny his skill. He's a puck possession type. Sure the 50 points in 57 playoff games could be better, but Matthews has 48 in 55 games, they aren't keeping him off Team USA right? It isn't as if Marner is Yashin-like in the playoffs. He's been below expectations in the postseason. But he does not need to be the guy on Team Canada. He's maybe, maybe 5th on the forward pecking list. He's got a lot of help.

Yeah, you can argue 2021 and Fleury is 100% a lock for the hall of fame. Just think people overrate him nowindays.

With respect to Marner, I 100% agree with your points. He's not playing with Tavares or Matthews on this roster, so you can rely on him in the top 6. McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon, Point, Makar and Reinhart will likely be relied on before Marner. I think he falls under the Stone and Morrissey role. Extremely skilled player that can fill a variety of needs and special teams for Canada without having to be the "guy."

 

[Crosby2010]

As I've said before, after EVERY Leaf playoff run that ends in disaster, posters say, "Marner is useless in big games. I don't want him anywhere near Team Canada". Then, in November, when Marner is on fire, those same forgetful posters want him on Team Canada. (Un)Fortunately, I don't forget. I know what he's like when the games are important.

I am willing to meet half way. Yes, he can be on my team but only on the 4th line - where he can play strong defensive, use his PK expertise and add some scoring.

As a Leaf fan, I am aware that Marner has yet to have that impact in the postseason. He isn't horrible, but a player of his skill you expect him to carry a team in a series or two by now. So I get it. But can you imagine him feeding someone like MacKinnon passes? Marner is a classic puck carrier, one who drives the play. I have always felt he drives the play more than Matthews and have always liked him more than Matthews. But just think of the options he'd have on this team. I think we need those types of guys on the ice as much as possible. The ones who control the pace of the game. That's a hard find.

The Americans have stolarz a Woll as options for now and the 2026 team to. I feel stolarz should be one of their 3 goalies along with helle and Oettinger. I hope helle is the second comming of Ryan miller. Great reg season goalie, but wilts under pressure

And to top it all off, Canada has had some of their goalies fall off a cliff. Jarry and Kuemper come to mind as goalies who most recently were thought to be solid picks on the team. Blackwood is in the middle of nowhere on San Jose and has never played a playoff game in his life. And one of the better picks in Hart is now facing criminal charges in court for the alleged sexual assault. Hart would have been a good choice before all of this went down. But not now.

 

[IHaveNoCreativity]

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but Joey D’Accord might be eligible.

 

[ORRFForever]

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but Joey D’Accord might be eligible.

Yes. Someone here suggested it - the poster, who I can't remember, is pretty smart - and it was on TSN last night. Supposedly, D'Accord does not have a Canadian Passport - he is, however, a Canadian citizen. I doubt he can get a Passport before February. The Olympics, however, should be doable.

Maybe the Americans or Swiss will offer him a spot just to stick it to us.

As a Leaf fan, I am aware that Marner has yet to have that impact in the postseason. He isn't horrible, but a player of his skill you expect him to carry a team in a series or two by now. So I get it. But can you imagine him feeding someone like MacKinnon passes? Marner is a classic puck carrier, one who drives the play. I have always felt he drives the play more than Matthews and have always liked him more than Matthews. But just think of the options he'd have on this team. I think we need those types of guys on the ice as much as possible. The ones who control the pace of the game. That's a hard find.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't want him on anything but my 4th line.

But, my guess, you'll get your wish and Hockey Canada will agree with you.

 

[IHaveNoCreativity]

Yes. Someone here suggested it - the poster, who I can't remember, is pretty smart - and it was on TSN last night. Supposedly, D'Accord does not have a Canadian Passport - he is, however, a Canadian citizen. I doubt he can get a Passport before February. The Olympics, however, should be doable.

Maybe the Americans or Swiss will offer him a spot just to stick it to us.


We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't want him on anything but my 4th line.

But, my guess, you'll get your wish and Hockey Canada will agree with you.

Oh dude he can get an expedited passport in a week if need be. You can rush that, and the federation can ask the goverment for a favour because it’s national interest.

Soccer player Alphonso Davies had his citizenship rushed by the Canadian government as the request of soccer Canada so he could represent us at a tournament. If D’Accord is a citizen, the passport is easy.

Doubt the US calls him to spite us, and he’s not stupid. He could be the 4th or 6th option there ??? The Swiss he’s a lock and I mean they could be a dark house at the Olympics and he would start forever so yea I can see that. But the path for us isn’t the muddiest.

 

[ORRFForever]

Oh dude he can get an expedited passport in a week if need be. You can rush that, and the federation can ask the goverment for a favour because it’s national interest.

Soccer player Alphonso Davies had his citizenship rushed by the Canadian government as the request of soccer Canada so he could represent us at a tournament. If D’Accord is a citizen, the passport is easy.

Doubt the US calls him to spite us, and he’s not stupid. He could be the 4th or 6th option there ??? The Swiss he’s a lock and I mean they could be a dark house at the Olympics and he would start forever so yea I can see that. But the path for us isn’t the muddiest.

I'm just glad Hockey Canada is exploring the idea.

 

[Crosby2010]

We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't want him on anything but my 4th line.

But, my guess, you'll get your wish and Hockey Canada will agree with you.

I don't know if there is room for him as it is on the top two lines. There may not be anyway. You'd have to think Point slides over there. Reinhart for sure as he is a RW as it is. There is also the possibility that MacKinnon slides on Crosby's right wing. But personally I like the idea of three centres in McDavid, MacKinnon and Crosby down the middle. Scheifele is a possibility for sliding on the right side. So it could be a numbers game for Marner. He still would make the team of course, but it is far from a sure thing he is on the top two lines. Lots of competition out there and he is a natural RW and they won't move him anywhere else. So in reality there is only 4 spots for Marner and they are all the RW position. You might get YOUR wish and he's a 4th liner

 

[Zybalto]

As I've said before, after EVERY Leaf playoff run that ends in disaster, posters say, "Marner is useless in big games. I don't want him anywhere near Team Canada". Then, in November, when Marner is on fire, those same forgetful posters want him on Team Canada. (Un)Fortunately, I don't forget. I know what he's like when the games are important.

I am willing to meet half way. Yes, he can be on my team but only on the 4th line - where he can play strong defensive, use his PK expertise and add some scoring.

I hear what you are saying about Marner as I've had all the arguments and Marners production certainly does fall in the big games (although his defensive numbers remain elite) but one guy from the Leafs that is the most puzzling is Morgan Rielly. (Marner ties in a bit later)

Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Rielly ranks 12th among all dmen in the NHL for PPG (4th among Canadian D) and has a 5v5 goal differential solidly above 50%.

When it comes to the playoffs, he hits another level.

Ranking of playoff dmen over the last 3 playoffs:
Goals per game (min 20 games played, 61 dmen total):
1. Makar
2. Rielly
3. Bouchard
4. Montour
5. Shultz


Points per game:
1. Makar
2. Bouchard
3. Fox
4. Hedman
5. Rielly

5v5 goal differential:
1. Whitecloud
2. Hague
3. Byram
4. Rielly
5. Burns

Statistically, Rielly is a top 5 playoff dman over the last 3 year, crap powerplay and all but it doesn't really feel that way does it.

The most interesting stat:

Top 5v5 goal differential relative other teammates. How much better have you been relative the rest of your team when it comes to 5v5 play results?

Top 5 among players in the league over the last 3 years (min 350 minutes played, 125 players total):
1. Rielly
2. McDavid
3. Marner
4. Lindholm
5. Burns

These 5 players meant the most to their teams 5v5 over the last 3 years in the playoffs when it comes to 5v5 outcomes.

Just fun to poke around the numbers and I hope you enjoyed my semi drunken rambling lol.

Now time to get ready for the game vs the cats.

Cheers.

 

[ORRFForever]

I hear what you are saying about Marner as I've had all the arguments and Marners production certainly does fall in the big games (although his defensive numbers remain elite) but one guy from the Leafs that is the most puzzling is Morgan Rielly. (Marner ties in a bit later)

Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Rielly ranks 12th among all dmen in the NHL for PPG (4th among Canadian D) and has a 5v5 goal differential solidly above 50%.

When it comes to the playoffs, he hits another level.

Ranking of playoff dmen over the last 3 playoffs:
Goals per game (min 20 games played, 61 dmen total):
1. Makar
2. Rielly
3. Bouchard
4. Montour
5. Shultz


Points per game:
1. Makar
2. Bouchard
3. Fox
4. Hedman
5. Rielly

5v5 goal differential:
1. Whitecloud
2. Hague
3. Byram
4. Rielly
5. Burns

Statistically, Rielly is a top 5 playoff dman over the last 3 year, crap powerplay and all but it doesn't really feel that way does it.

The most interesting stat:

Top 5v5 goal differential relative other teammates. How much better have you been relative the rest of your team when it comes to 5v5 play results?

Top 5 among players in the league over the last 3 years (min 350 minutes played, 125 players total):
1. Rielly
2. McDavid
3. Marner
4. Lindholm
5. Burns

These 5 players meant the most to their teams 5v5 over the last 3 years in the playoffs when it comes to 5v5 outcomes.

Just fun to poke around the numbers and I hope you enjoyed my semi drunken rambling lol.

Now time to get ready for the game vs the cats.

Cheers.

I don't like Rielly but I can't tell you why. I might be too close to the situation.