Are we in Canada paranoid about 2026 or should we not be worried?

[WarriorofTime]

I expect they'll make those not criminally charged eligible again soon enough

 

[ORRFForever]

All members of that team are banned. Including Hart and Makar. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure that is the current ruling.

Yes, you are right. My bad.

No one from that current team, is eligible at the moment I thought.

You are right.

 

[HFpapi]

Minus your last paragraph, I agree with everything you wrote. We're on top now and for the foreseeable future.

Curious why you disagree with the last paragraph that the USA will never be anything less than equals moving forward?

They have 350 million people, their hockey program is dialed in and they have a rapidly growing number of kids playing the sport.

They used to get all of their players from Minnesota, Massachusetts, and New York.

They weren't tapping into 47 states. Now they have stars coming out of Arizona, Florida, Texas, California.

 

[93LEAFS]

One last thing to mention, Canada is deep when it comes to centres, not just on this team but in the NHL overall. The best Canadians are usually centres. However, Canada has always had this problem. If you go back to 1976 there were some great players that were playing out of position on the wing that you couldn't leave off. 2010, 2014 and especially 2016 come to mind and we won all of those tournaments. Sometimes you can't leave a guy off if he is too good. I think Mike Keenan made this mistake with someone like Yzerman in 1991. Yes we still won, but for a guy like Yzerman at that stage of his career you put him on the team on the wing but in whatever way you have to.

2016 we had a total of two natural wingers among the forwards (Marchand and Perry) and it is worth noting that Perry was added only when Jeff Carter went down with an injury (although Jamie Benn was a natural winger and got hurt in a preseason game). So I honestly think if a player is good enough he can adjust to the wing. There are those that are good fits for that.

Yeah, also, pretty much any elite center can play the wing if needed. Look at how Matthews was used on Team North America with McDavid. Having too many centers is rarely a problem, it's the most versatile position in hockey.

 

[ORRFForever]

Curious why you disagree with the last paragraph that the USA will never be anything less than equals moving forward?

I don't believe they are our equals now nor do I see it happening anytime soon.

You are saying, going forward, best case scenario, Canada will be equal to the U.S.? That's silly when it's not even the case in 2024.

 

[ORRFForever]

Good answer when asked about the goalie situation...

Videos - NHL, NBA, NFL, Super Bowl, CFL, MLB, Golf, Tennis, Soccer

TSN's latest highlights and features from around the sporting world. NHL, NBA, NFL, CFL, MLB, PGA, LPGA, MLS, EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga, Serie A, FIFA World Cup, Euro, ATP Tennis, WTA Tennis, Curling, Scotties, Brier, World Juniors.

www.tsn.ca

Only one non Canadian goalie has won the Cup since 2014.

 

[FDBluth]

The good for Canada is that MacK, McD and Makar is hard to match up against. That is as good a start as anyone can possibly have (Matthews, Eichel and Hughes?).

The more good is that Bedard should be a cemented stud by then too.

The bad for Canada is that Makar probably isn't going as that court case seems years away.

I wonder if McDavid and Mackinnon would play on the same line. Having McDavid, Mackinnon and Makar regularly on the ice all at the same time would be absolutely devastating to any other team. Especially if they're all playing 20+ min.

I have a feeling Hockey Canada will make those players not involved in the incident eligible after the initial hearing.

 

[Czechboy]

I wonder if McDavid and Mackinnon would play on the same line. Having McDavid, Mackinnon and Makar regularly on the ice all at the same time would be absolutely devastating to any other team. Especially if they're all playing 20+ min.

I have a feeling Hockey Canada will make those players not involved in the incident eligible after the initial hearing.

I'd seperate them. Give one of them old man Crosby and the other Bedard.

Curious how it goes with the cases and decisions. Shame it takes 2 years to get things like this to trial.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Curious why you disagree with the last paragraph that the USA will never be anything less than equals moving forward?

They have 350 million people, their hockey program is dialed in and they have a rapidly growing number of kids playing the sport.

They used to get all of their players from Minnesota, Massachusetts, and New York.

They weren't tapping into 47 states. Now they have stars coming out of Arizona, Florida, Texas, California.

Canada still has a big edge numbers wise in terms of Junior players. That won't change in the immediate future unless the number of junior hockey clubs significantly expands in the United States or significantly contracts in Canada.

Keeping track of it all is very difficult, but this is the rough state of play of what would be considered high-end junior leagues, note that there are even leagues beneath these ones. Players can and do cross the border frequently on both ends.

USHL: 16 teams (one of which is the USNDTP)
NAHL: 32 teams
EHL: 21 teams
NCDC: 18 teams

QMJHL: 18 teams
OHL: 20 teams
WHL: 22 teams
BCHL: 22 teams
AJHL: 11 teams
SJHL: 12 teams
MJHL: 13 teams
SIJHL: 7 teams
NOJHL: 12 teams
OJHL: 22 teams
CCHL: 12 teams
LHJQ: 12 teams
MHL (not the Russian one): 12 teams

There are prep schools in each that operate outside the junior umbrella, some of which are definitely better than some of these lesser junior ones, but usually feed kids directly into juniors unless they are good enough to jump straight to NCAA. Bigger thing in the U.S. but exists in Canada as well.

 

[ORRFForever]

Canada....

Do you think Bedard is ready to be on a Best On Best Canadian team? @WarriorofTime

 

[FDBluth]

I'd seperate them. Give one of them old man Crosby and the other Bedard.

Curious how it goes with the cases and decisions. Shame it takes 2 years to get things like this to trial.

Yeah, I guess what I'm getting at is that Hockey Canada will probably find a way to make sure Makar gets onto the team for such a major tournament (as long as in some bizarre twist it ends up he actually was involved somehow). Just reading a link from Sportsnet in February and it says players are suspended until its own investigation is complete--since it's just a self-imposed mandate, I think it will find a way to allow Makar onto that team.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Do you think Bedard is ready to be on a Best On Best Canadian team? @WarriorofTime

If a team on merit was being chosen today (as in the top 12/13 forwards that you'd pick taking into account how well they mesh and slide into various roles, and not just a pure skill all star team), no, but I think they should give him a spot in the 4 nation thing for 2025 so that he will be ready to go by 2026 and be an olympic veteran by 2030.

I wonder if he will go to Prague for the WC this year, no reason he shouldn't, as he has 2 years left on his ELC and I'm sure he's mad about the missed time while out with the jaw injury.

 

[ORRFForever]

If a team on merit was being chosen today (as in the top 12/13 forwards that you'd pick taking into account how well they mesh and slide into various roles, and not just a pure skill all star team), no, but I think they should give him a spot in the 4 nation thing for 2025 so that he will be ready to go by 2026 and be an olympic veteran by 2030.

I wonder if he will go to Prague for the WC this year, no reason he shouldn't, as he has 2 years left on his ELC and I'm sure he's mad about the missed time while out with the jaw injury.

Great answer. Thanks!

 

[JackSlater]

In what sense? Is Canada a favourite and probably the favourite for a 2026 Olympics? Yes. There's no need to worry that Canada is not a legitimate contender. Is Canada in worse shape than it has been for a long time and is the gap a lot smaller than it was in the 2010s and other points? Yes.

Canada tends to oscillate between having by far the most talented team or just the most talented team, and many times (not always) the results indicate which period is which. In my opinion at a theoretical 2018 Olympics Canada would have had by far the strongest team, but by 2022 that was no longer true. The Canadian players who entered the draft from 2003-2010 were a much stronger group than the players that have come since, though some drafts were still very strong. These things do ebb and flow though. Canadian hockey was a lot stronger in the late 1950s and early 1960s than it was in the decade following WW2 or the late 1960s and especially early 1970s. Canada's strongest hockey generation would be the players who were around in the 1980s and early 1990s, with the players who came in the mid- late 1990s and early 2000s clearly lacking. There are natural ebbs and flows but it is important to avoid complacency. Some people are fine as long as Canada won the most recent best on best, but that's a tiny sample size and it's been a decade since a legitimate best on best. Those people who claim that everything is great will also be the first to go overboard in the other direction if Canada loses the 2026 Olympics.

Realistically there is a lot of room for improvement, as in my opinion Canada should be judged against itself historically rather than what other countries happen to be doing at a given time. There's no need to be worried but decision makers should be realistic, there are long standing issues that remain in terms of player development in Canada.

The good for Canada is that MacK, McD and Makar is hard to match up against. That is as good a start as anyone can possibly have (Matthews, Eichel and Hughes?).

The more good is that Bedard should be a cemented stud by then too.

The bad for Canada is that Makar probably isn't going as that court case seems years away.

Hockey Canada decided on its own to make those players ineligible. No one really cares about what happens in the iihf world championship but in an Olympics with NHLers there is no chance that Makar, or any other player who might help the team win, will be ineligible. Making players ineligible was for PR but winning matters more.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Good answer when asked about the goalie situation...

Videos - NHL, NBA, NFL, Super Bowl, CFL, MLB, Golf, Tennis, Soccer

TSN's latest highlights and features from around the sporting world. NHL, NBA, NFL, CFL, MLB, PGA, LPGA, MLS, EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga, Serie A, FIFA World Cup, Euro, ATP Tennis, WTA Tennis, Curling, Scotties, Brier, World Juniors.

www.tsn.ca

Only one non Canadian goalie has won the Cup since 2014.

Have to laugh at the TSN content machine calling Canada an underdog, even if they aren’t worlds in front of everyone like they were in the 2010s it’s quite clear they’re at least a slight favourite with the luxury of having the three best players in the world on the ice for virtually the entire game…. Any other country would kill for that

 

[ORRFForever]

Have to laugh at the TSN content machine calling Canada an underdog, even if they aren’t worlds in front of everyone like they were in the 2010s it’s quite clear they’re at least a slight favourite with the luxury of having the three best players in the world on the ice for virtually the entire game…. Any other country would kill for that

I agree. Click bait... and I fell for it.
And, to make things worse, I shared it.

 

[Crosby2010]

Re : "I don't know why, but we always do."

It's an insecurity thing and, yes, we always do.

As I mentioned elsewhere, in late 2023, posters were laughing at our stats and throwing dirt on Hockey Canada's grave. Now, mid March, last time I looked (2 days ago?), 23 of the Top 50 players were Canadian. 24 if you include Nylander. Also 7 of the Top 12 D-Men (points) were Canadian

As for you concerns : The garbage Canada produced from 2016 to 2019 cannot be underestimated. For 4 years in a row, Canada <bleeped> the bed. The players from those 4 drafts should be ashamed of themselves. If any other country had 4 horrific drafts like we did (in a row), they'd be a mess.

The players from those 4 drafts should be stepping up and replacing Marchand, Stamkos, Crosby and Bergeron. Instead, we're asking the Golden Generation to hold on for a few more years.

For Canada to have 4 drafts like that and still produce the best squad on paper speak volumes and is something we should be proud of.

I was surprised, but yes you are right, 23 of the top 50 scorers in the NHL are Canadian. 5 of the top 10 rookies, 5 of the top 10 defensemen. I don't think there is a roster that would omit Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for instance, but I don't think there is room for him on Canada. Yeah those drafts in general were pretty bad, and I think they were thought to be bad even then. 2017 and 2018 I can very much remember not being good at the time. 2019 as well. Hey, Makar came from those drafts so I guess it isn't all bad.

Re : "The 2023 draft was Canadian-laden, the 2024 draft especially in the 1st round is at least half Canadians, and the 2020-'23 drafts have been loaded with talent that will be on these teams. Players we aren't thinking about yet too."

From the 2020 draft on, we are more than fine. In fact, we are doing GREAT. And yes, the 2024 draft will be outstanding for Canada.

Remember, everything goes in cycles and other countries will have bad drafts - maybe 4 bad drafts in a row. When that time comes, expect Canada to jump ahead.

P.S. When Canada was <bleeping> the bed from 2016 - 2019, the U.S. was having some of their best drafts. 2016 is obscene with U.S. high end talent.

P.S.S. When Nick Suzuki (oy) is the best offensive players Canada produced from 2016 to 2019, we needed to hang our collective heads in shame.

What it reminds of is that great 2003 draft and the incredible 2005 WJC team Canada iced. You knew that many of the players on the 2010 Olympic team were part of that core and I get the same feeling with these last few drafts. You can see the guys that are going to be part of these tournaments. No doubt we are missing guys that are bound to make leaps and bounds over the next year or two. For instance, Iginla was probably an afterthought in the summer of 2001, but came out in the fall of 2001 like a flash and was a lock to make the Olympic team and stayed there until 2010.

 

[Crosby2010]

Have to laugh at the TSN content machine calling Canada an underdog, even if they aren’t worlds in front of everyone like they were in the 2010s it’s quite clear they’re at least a slight favourite with the luxury of having the three best players in the world on the ice for virtually the entire game…. Any other country would kill for that

There is no doubt on paper we are the favourite. Now, that being said, a one-game elimination could have the Americans win. We don't know that yet. But I really don't see another country giving us a threat. U.S. will do what they often do and play us hard either way. But like I was saying, imagine a 1-2-3-4 centre position of McDavid, MacKinnon, Bedard and Crosby. That's just tantalizing and to boot you have Makar on the ice for 25 minutes. The concern I have is that while we probably still have the best defense overall, there is a gap from Makar to the next best defenseman for us (Theodore?). I know Makar is a special talent, but I think they rely on him being healthy. He's like a Bourque or Coffey back there, except there isn't another Bourque or Coffey after him.

 

[ORRFForever]

I was surprised, but yes you are right, 23 of the top 50 scorers in the NHL are Canadian. 5 of the top 10 rookies, 5 of the top 10 defensemen. I don't think there is a roster that would omit Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for instance, but I don't think there is room for him on Canada. Yeah those drafts in general were pretty bad, and I think they were thought to be bad even then. 2017 and 2018 I can very much remember not being good at the time. 2019 as well. Hey, Makar came from those drafts so I guess it isn't all bad.



What it reminds of is that great 2003 draft and the incredible 2005 WJC team Canada iced. You knew that many of the players on the 2010 Olympic team were part of that core and I get the same feeling with these last few drafts. You can see the guys that are going to be part of these tournaments. No doubt we are missing guys that are bound to make leaps and bounds over the next year or two. For instance, Iginla was probably an afterthought in the summer of 2001, but came out in the fall of 2001 like a flash and was a lock to make the Olympic team and stayed there until 2010.

Re : "Hey, Makar came from those drafts so I guess it isn't all bad."

Yes, a diamond in all that coal.

Re : "No doubt we are missing guys that are bound to make leaps and bounds over the next year or two."

They'll appear. They always do.

*******************************************************

Are things perfect for Hockey Canada? No! When the average NHL career is 4.5 years and we have a 4 year black hole in our feeding system, it's tough. But things are looking up. As @Mathieukferland said (paraphrasing), "We have the 3 best players in the world and, with Bedard at a PPG at the age of 18, we could soon have the Best 4. Every other country would kill for that - cause it's hard to beat".

 

[ORRFForever]

There is no doubt on paper we are the favourite. Now, that being said, a one-game elimination could have the Americans win. We don't know that yet. But I really don't see another country giving us a threat. U.S. will do what they often do and play us hard either way. But like I was saying, imagine a 1-2-3-4 centre position of McDavid, MacKinnon, Bedard and Crosby. That's just tantalizing and to boot you have Makar on the ice for 25 minutes. The concern I have is that while we probably still have the best defense overall, there is a gap from Makar to the next best defenseman for us (Theodore?). I know Makar is a special talent, but I think they rely on him being healthy. He's like a Bourque or Coffey back there, except there isn't another Bourque or Coffey after him.

Re : "there isn't another Bourque or Coffey after him."

A little patience. We have a lot of young D-Men on the horizon.

Re : ", imagine a 1-2-3-4 centre position of McDavid, MacKinnon, Bedard and Crosby."

Imagine, indeed. When Crosby is your 4th best Center, things aint too bad.

 

[ORRFForever]

McDavid is the best hockey player in the world and yet, somehow, MacKinnon is better than him right now. How do you stop a team with that as your first and second center?

 

[dalewood12]

I still give them the slightest of edges over Team USA, but there is no doubt that Canada's D depth and especially Goaltending is weaker than the 2014, 2010 and 2002 teams.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Re : "Hey, Makar came from those drafts so I guess it isn't all bad."

Yes, a diamond in all that coal.

Re : "No doubt we are missing guys that are bound to make leaps and bounds over the next year or two."

They'll appear. They always do.

*******************************************************

Are things perfect for Hockey Canada? No! When the average NHL career is 4.5 years and we have a 4 year black hole in our feeding system, it's tough. But things are looking up. As @Mathieukferland said (paraphrasing), "We have the 3 best players in the world and, with Bedard at a PPG at the age of 18, we could soon have the Best 4. Every other country would kill for that - cause it's hard to beat".

Yes, to largely echo this point there are many issues currently with the CHL and hockey Canada, but for the moment it’s not as if the talent pool has turned into that of Latvia overnight.


The last thing I’ll add the no one has mentioned when comparing Canada and their likely top competitor, the USA, is that Canada is filled with serial winners at the biggest tournaments and, well, it’s not the case for the USA. Despite the great strides I thinly USA hockey and the ADM have made, these results kind of speak for themselves when it comes to performing in the biggest moments (take this as my most recent roster mock as well):

Combined WJC/WC/WCUP/OG/SC victories in ()


L1

Crosby (8)

MacKinnon (2)

Marchand (4)



L2

Hyman (0)

McDavid (2)

Bédard (2)



L3

Scheifele (1)

Point (3)

Reinhart (2)



L4

Stone (2)

Thomas (2)

Marner (0)


D1

Toews (1)

Makar (2)



D2

Theodore (2)

Pietrangelo (5)



D3

Morrisey (1)

Doughty (6)

G

Hill (2)

Binnington (1)




———————

L1

B.Tkachuk (0)

J. Hughes (0)

Connor (0)


L2

M. Tkachuk (0)

Matthews (0)

Miller (1)


L3

Robertson(0)

Thompson (1)

Kreider (1)



L4

Eichel (1)

Larkin (0)

Trochek (1)



D1

Fox (1)

McAvoy (1)



D2

Q. Hughes (0)

Slavin (0)



D3

Werenski (0)

Sanderson (1)


G

Hellebuyck (0)

Demko (0)

Quick (2)

 

[WarriorofTime]

Combined WJC/WC/WCUP/OG/SC victories in

American players only care about Stanley Cup and Olympics. Of course WJC matters for junior aged players and for the USNDTP guys, the IIHF U18s matter a lot too, which I know Canadians don't care about because it conflicts with the CHL Playoffs other than rare cases like 2021. NCAA Championship matters a lot for American kids, just as I'd imagine the Memorial Cup might for Canadian kids.

The legacy Olympic/WCup stuff is fine but the last olympics were 10 years ago, there will be a small handful of guys come then that played in 2014 that played in 2026. I'm not gonna fault any American under 28 or so that hasn't won a Stanley Cup yet, there's a lot of time there. It's kind of amusing the Americans lose in the World Championship semifinals every year, but a good portion of the team are college players and AHL players on the U.S. side. I know Canada doesn't bring their best either but the U.S. buy-in for that one is particularly bad. There's a pretty big age gap between U.S. and Canada based solely on the rosters you posted there and a lot of padding from some of those older ones.

I'm not ready to write off the next American olympic squad as a bunch of losers. This is the generation of Americans that has proven they can go toe to toe with Canada at the U20s and it's basically anyone's game when the puck drops at that level at this point. Without any other best-on-best competition at the senior level in a long time and that involves the current American generation, I don't think the world championship monkey on the back is enough to prove that they just can't hang or have that winner's mentality.

 

[Mathieukferland]

American players only care about Stanley Cup and Olympics. Of course WJC matters for junior aged players and for the USNDTP guys, the IIHF U18s matter a lot too, which I know Canadians don't care about because it conflicts with the CHL Playoffs other than rare cases like 2021. NCAA Championship matters a lot for American kids, just as I'd imagine the Memorial Cup might for Canadian kids.

The legacy Olympic/WCup stuff is fine but the last olympics were 10 years ago, there will be a small handful of guys come then that played in 2014 that played in 2026. I'm not gonna fault any American under 28 or so that hasn't won a Stanley Cup yet, there's a lot of time there. It's kind of amusing the Americans lose in the World Championship semifinals every year, but a good portion of the team are college players and AHL players on the U.S. side. I know Canada doesn't bring their best either but the U.S. buy-in for that one is particularly bad. There's a pretty big age gap between U.S. and Canada based solely on the rosters you posted there and a lot of padding from some of those older ones.

I'm not ready to write off the next American olympic squad as a bunch of losers. This is the generation of Americans that has proven they can go toe to toe with Canada at the U20s and it's basically anyone's game when the puck drops at that level at this point. Without any other best-on-best competition at the senior level in a long time and that involves the current American generation, I don't think the world championship monkey on the back is enough to prove that they just can't hang or have that winner's mentality.

Yeah fair enough with NCAA championships and mem cups, I just included the competitions specificed because everyone on those teams has at a certain point had the opportunity to play in them.

The serial winning point makes me wonder if they try to bring names like Kane and McDonough, players that have elevated their game on the biggest stage and, in Kane’s case, has put a team on his back in key moments