Are The Dallas Stars Underachieving?

[hirawl]

Things will be better with Bichsel… what a start… plays a heavy game and is quite mobile for his size…

The stars have to many lefties as defensemen and need to do a trade… ship Lindell out and keep heiskanen, hartley and bichsel on the left side…

Shipping Lindell out would really make a difference. A huge negative one.

 

[dirtydanglez]

yes but that can all change in the playoffs.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Utah's been to OT 10 times, Calgary 12 times. Lots more coin flip points they've gotten thanks to that.

Regulation W-L is the only W-L worth looking at. The standings the NHL promotes is, and has been since 2005, full of lies.

I agree with your broader point about regulation results being more telling, but disagree that OT results are akin to a “coin flip.”

Edmonton is 7-2 in OT, is that because they’re lucky or because they have players whose skillset is well suited for a 3v3 format?

Even the rule that coincidental fighting majors don’t lead to 4 v 4 is premised on the idea that certain teams are better than others with the extra space afforded in such situations.

 

[ijuka]

The broader point about Dallas underachieving stands up under scrutiny here, but as to the point being made right here...by regulation win percentage:

12. Dallas: 17-13 (.567)
17. Utah: 11-11 (.500)
18. Calgary: 10-11 (.476)

They really aren't as close in terms of real performance as the standings make it seem. Dallas has only had two games last beyond 60 minutes this year, they've gotten very few of those bonus points. Utah's been to OT 10 times, Calgary 12 times. Lots more coin flip points they've gotten thanks to that.

Regulation W-L is the only W-L worth looking at. The standings the NHL promotes is, and has been since 2005, full of lies.

This is not how you look at regulation performance. Here's what it should actually look like:

Dallas: 17-13-2
Utah: 11-11-10
Calgary: 11-11-12

You can't just isolate the regulation-ending games and examine them in a vacuum. Being able to tie games instead of losing them is still valuable. And yes, it is valuable in the playoffs as well.

If we turned those regulation scores into points via the win-loss-draw system:

Dallas: 36p
Utah: 32p
Calgary: 34p

Or points per game:

Dallas: 1.125
Utah: 0.865
Calgary: 1.000

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Imagine losing to the Rongos right now

 

[PuckG]

They should have won Stanley Cup last season, they underachieved when they lost to Oilers. This season, after Seguin got hurt they are in the slump. I picked them last season to win SC, but not this year.

Every playoff team should have won the Stanley Cup, if they didn’t “underachieve” and lose in a previous round.

 

[Johnny Tomala]

Every playoff team should have won the Stanley Cup, if they didn’t “underachieve” and lose in a previous round.

They had better team than Oilers in my opinion and choked hard in Game 6, when they outplayed Edmonton handidly. This year with loss of Pavelski and Seguin I don't have Stars going far in the playoffs. Let's see if they add pieces at the deadline.

 

[account deactivated]

PP is dogshit. Hintz and Robertson aren't players you can rely on to carry a team, and while Duchene and Marchment are still getting some chances, the best line for the Stars (and one of the best in the league until Seguin's injury) doesn't have that same spark without him. The defense also hasn't been stellar with Lindell probably being the most consistently solid d-man in the group, though maybe the fancystats say otherwise, I'm too hungover to bother looking at em.

It's really just a confluence of all the top players playing mediocre hockey far too regularly at the same time.

I'd also argue that most teams this season have been in a similar boat. I don't see any teams this year that are head and shoulders above the rest thus far like we have had in previous seasons, it's strange. Maybe I'm just not following the league as closely, but it really does seem like any team can win on any given night.

Took Steve Spott longer than usual.

I firmly believe that Pavelski was actually the one running the PP while he was here because I feel like the drop off has been crazy, lol.

 

[PuckG]

They had better team than Oilers in my opinion and choked hard in Game 6, when they outplayed Edmonton handidly. This year with loss of Pavelski and Seguin I don't have Stars going far in the playoffs. Let's see if they add pieces at the deadline.

My point is, the better team doesn’t usually choke in game 6.

The Oilers outplayed them in the series and won.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Going all out from the first game seems to be a bad strategy.

Avalanche usually wastes their season to regular season.

Don't recommend

 

[JKG33]

Regular season means jack shit. Would you rather be the Stars, a team that will still easily make the playoffs and that's won a lot of playoff rounds in the last 5ish years.. or a team like Toronto or Winnipeg that's leading their division but has nothing to show for it come playoff time?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Their record will probably catch up to their GD soon

 

[Regal]

I agree with your broader point about regulation results being more telling, but disagree that OT results are akin to a “coin flip.”

Edmonton is 7-2 in OT, is that because they’re lucky or because they have players whose skillset is well suited for a 3v3 format?

Even the rule that coincidental fighting majors don’t lead to 4 v 4 is premised on the idea that certain teams are better than others with the extra space afforded in such situations.

It’s a fair point for the regular season. McDavid and Draisaitl with the extra space is ridiculous. If we’re determining who are the playoff contenders though it doesn’t matter much. Though I agree with the other poster that we can’t ignore the ability to keep games close and bring games to OT, even for the playoffs.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

I just don't trust DeBoer until he actually wins a Cup. He had a stacked Sharks team, a stacked Vegas team and now a stacked Stars team and he's yet to get it done.
But that's just my opinion.

Yeah, we learned that while DeBoer is certainly a very good coach, he can only take you so far. But that can still be pretty high.

IMHO, Dallas isn't struggling as much as the Western Conference is more tough than the last couple of years. There may be as many as six teams on the bubble going into March.

 

[Czechboy]

I was looking for my Oil in the standings and just kind of assumed Dallas was on top of their division. Amazing team. Surprised to see them a little lower. Nonetheless, this team is built amazing and will be a nightmare in playoffs. Cup contender and I think they may be cooking up a trade or two before TDL as well.

 

[timw33]

Took Steve Spott longer than usual.

Pete DeBoer personally making sure that man's kids get through college.

 

[Tkachuk4MVP]

Johnston’s been one of the biggest disappointments in the league for me so far this season. I expected him to really break through this year.

 

[onmygameboi]

This is not how you look at regulation performance. Here's what it should actually look like:

Dallas: 17-13-2
Utah: 11-11-10
Calgary: 11-11-12

You can't just isolate the regulation-ending games and examine them in a vacuum. Being able to tie games instead of losing them is still valuable. And yes, it is valuable in the playoffs as well.

If we turned those regulation scores into points via the win-loss-draw system:

Dallas: 36p
Utah: 32p
Calgary: 34p

Or points per game:

Dallas: 1.125
Utah: 0.865
Calgary: 1.000

Are you a wizard?

 

[VeteranPresence]

The Stars are in a weird place where their young guys are still a year out from being reliable contributors in key roles, and their older guys have fallen off a year earlier than people I think expected. With the deadline space they will have Dallas should be able to pick up some great depth, but they will need their best players to be their best and that isn't happening so far.