Are the Capitals and Jets PDO merchants ?

[Pablo El Perro]

Last year:

2023 - Vancouver 102.9%, Winnipeg 102.7%,

The Bruins from 2 years ago, the best record ever or whatever, were a 104.

 

[Oneiro]

They are good teams with a lot of experience and positive youth contributions and neither will win shit.

 

[wetcoast]

Maybe? I don’t know, hockey is random. I think the Caps could go to the SCF or get upset as the one seed. I think they’re good enough to make a run, and they’re going to get better with the addition of Ryan Leonard in April.

Agree on Leonard and I forgot about him but this team seems to have a bit of Cinderella going on, much like the Jets, and the clock will strike 12 at some point.

The Caps are much better than they were last year and it’s not particularly close. Last year the Caps either squeaked by for a win or got blown out, they had no margin for error because they weren’t very good. If you think the Caps of this year are the same as the Caps of last year I’m fairly confident that you didn’t watch either team very much. Washington has the second best GD this season and they’re tops in the league in goals per game.

Yes I agree that they are much better constructed than last year but they aren't as good as 2nd in GF and 2nd in GA suggests.

 

[TS Quint]

Why are people always up in arms over unsustainably high PDO but don't ever bring up low PDO as unsustainable?

Haters gonna hate.

 

[Mattilaus]

Well I did too eventually & that worked fine. My point was that we shouldn't 'have' to go digging through google to figure out what they're talking about. If the hockey version of PDO isn't the first result in a search, then it's not well known enough to be obvious & the thing to do is define it for those of us who had no clue.

After that the discussion can devolve into the usual "You don't know what you're talking about because of 'x' (advanced stat)" "Nuh huh, 'you're' the one that couldn't find your butt with both hands..." "Oh yeah, well your momma..." And life goes on.

You've been here since 2007 and you both, don't know what PDO is AND expect everyone to explain every stat they use, every time they make a thread involving one, unless it is the top google result? Do you know what SH% and GAA are? Because the top google results for those aren't about hockey either. In fact, most stats I look up, the hockey version of that stat is not the top result. PDO isn't even an "advanced stat", it's just save percentage and shooting percentage added together.

 

[43sfriends]

These stats just reveal that most people don't understand what numbers really are. Thinking a team HAS to play worse in the future just because they have a high shooting % or high save % is insane. They have those high statistics BECAUSE OF excellent play, whether it be superior shot selection or a goalie on top of his game. Thinking PDO means anything is putting the cart before the horse.

 

[SimpleJack]

Best 4C in the league, two 1Bs, and a solid 3C. Not flashy or spectacular but solid from top to bottom. I’d say they’re middle of the league if you were ranking each team’s overall strength at the center position.

Solid 3C? Maybe if it was 2018….but it’s 2025 Eller is washed. Weak compared to most other 3Cs on contenders. The caps basically have 2 2Cs and 2 4Cs.

 

[MessierII]

Jets are the reverse oilers. They start insane but slow down as the season goes on.

Caps are just on a lucky run but they are a better team than last year no doubt. I don’t see them as a series playoff threat but they could win a round potentially.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

PDO?

Heads off to the Googles...

1st result: Protected Designation of Origin... well, that didn't help

Ya know, unless your acronym has been around for half of forever, such as RBI in baseball, it would be polite to define what you are talking about the first time you use it in the thread...

****

And now knowing just what we're talking about. I don't see the Caps being able to sustain that high level through the rest of the season. Jets will probably fall but not as much due to their goaltending

PDO has been around for over a decade. It’s crazy to me that someone interested enough in hockey to have a membership in this board would not have heard of it before this thread.

 

[HTFN]

Solid 3C? Maybe if it was 2018….but it’s 2025 Eller is washed. Weak compared to most other 3Cs on contenders. The caps basically have 2 2Cs and 2 4Cs.

Calling Dowd a 4C is wild when he's been the default actual 3 for years now. Remember last year when there was some talk about if he'd merit a 1st? It's because he's not your average 4C and hasn't been for the majority of his time here. Buffalo basically bought 2/3rds of last year's line just hoping to get some of that overall impact, that man is massively underrated.

Yes I agree that they are much better constructed than last year but they aren't as good as 2nd in GF and 2nd in GA suggests.

What's leading you to that besides not wanting it to happen? That D corps is stacked and I'm not sure which of their 8 double digit goal scorers you think doesn't belong on the list... I guess it's a little early for Dowd but, you know, see above: he's been underrated and the Caps have had one of the best "fourth" lines for years as a result.

I mean, sorry that nobody wanted to listen to prospect hype from Caps fans surrounding Protas and McMichael but that happens when Washington takes good players, they just fade into the ether. If Leonard, Cristall, or Hutson were bigger market prospects nobody'd shut up about them.

You're seeing a clearly planned transition actually work, it's just that nobody cares enough about the team to call it anything but blind luck.

 

[PlushMinus]

Um okay sure but do you really expect a deep run with this group this year?

Sure some guys are having "career" years but it seems like they are really relying on goaltending, a bit like last year.

Although the East and Metro division are easier paths than the West.

Last year they finished 28th in the league in goals for. This season so far they are 3rd.

Last season they finished 17th in goals against. This season they are 3rd.

It's not just goaltending....and any team that makes the playoffs has a shot at the Cup. At least a better shot than the 16 who don't

 

[wetcoast]

Calling Dowd a 4C is wild when he's been the default actual 3 for years now. Remember last year when there was some talk about if he'd merit a 1st? It's because he's not your average 4C and hasn't been for the majority of his time here. Buffalo basically bought 2/3rds of last year's line just hoping to get some of that overall impact, that man is massively underrated.

What's leading you to that besides not wanting it to happen? That D corps is stacked and I'm not sure which of their 8 double digit goal scorers you think doesn't belong on the list... I guess it's a little early for Dowd but, you know, see above: he's been underrated and the Caps have had one of the best "fourth" lines for years as a result.

I mean, sorry that nobody wanted to listen to prospect hype from Caps fans surrounding Protas and McMichael but that happens when Washington takes good players, they just fade into the ether. If Leonard, Cristall, or Hutson were bigger market prospects nobody'd shut up about them.

You're seeing a clearly planned transition actually work, it's just that nobody cares enough about the team to call it anything but blind luck.

Not sure where the aggression is coming form as I'm not calling it blind luck or not wanting it to happen as I have no dog in the race but like I said if someone said hey at midseason the capitals would be second if GF and GA in the league and leading the Metro with a 46-31-10-5 record even most Capitals fans would have been really?

Like I stated upthread they have had excellent health on the back end and thompson has been lights out but I still don't see them as a strong contender but maybe they keep riding this streak who knows.

Also I'm a Canucks fan and I saw this last season with the canucks literally as a surprise and then their luck ran out in the second round and they were frankly lucky to take that series to 7.

for the record I've been saying for a while now that the capitals have one of the best systems that no one is talking about right now and I'm not even super high on Christall I just think that Leonard is going to be a very good player and some others will pan out as well.

 

[The Nuge]

Why are people always up in arms over unsustainably high PDO but don't ever bring up low PDO as unsustainable?

People do… last year when everyone said the Oilers suck, Oiler fans pointed out that it was basically historically bad luck and that it would turn around.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

People do… last year when everyone said the Oilers suck, Oiler fans pointed out that it was basically historically bad luck and that it would turn around.

Fans of the team sure. But seems like the main boards is all about tearing teams down. So you'll never get a neutral fan discussing this. It'll be "LMAO , the Oilers suck with McDavid".

 

[Oilslick941611]

Last year the Canucks never played a game without all of the top 6 and top pair defensman.

This year , they've played a grand total of 2 games with all of the same pieces in place. The second game was the win vs the Oilers.

so last year was just luck for the canucks then. Faced zero adversity all year, and now that have some adversity they crumble.

 

[43sfriends]

Luck is the word people use for events they can't explain, but every event in hockey can be explained. Was a guy who hit the post 'unlucky'?...NO, he missed the shot. Was the goalie 'saved by the post'? NO, it wasn't a shot on goal. There IS NO luck. And without luck, PDO is meaningless.

 

[PlushMinus]

Luck is the word people use for events they can't explain, but every event in hockey can be explained. Was a guy who hit the post 'unlucky'?...NO, he missed the shot. Was the goalie 'saved by the post'? NO, it wasn't a shot on goal. There IS NO luck. And without luck, PDO is meaningless.

Was a team unlucky because a goal was overturned for goalie interference after review? No - the league just doesn't know how to apply the rule consistently cos they are f***ing idiots