Anyone notice Martin Necas's start?

[Reverend Mayhem]

It’s not unsustainable. Things finally clicked for him but anyone who’s watched him play in the past knows he’s capable of being a top 5 forward in the league like he’s playing right now

Yeah I dont mean to piss on anyones parade, but can a Canes fan tell me year-over-year is Necas' shot really improved to be twice as good? The man is shooting at 26.2% and is career 12.3? I'm not saying he's a bad player, just that I done this before that dopamine hit of "this player I always believed in is doing it!"

Hey, I'm even still doing it holding the bag thus far on Pettersson. His earlier shot totals in his career make me go "hmm" a bit more now. I'm really happy too, Necas I drafted this year. But if I gave more of a shit I'd be selling the shit high out of him right now and if you wouldn't do the same I don't know what to tell you. He'll hit a PPG for sure this year, all that said lol.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Yeah I dont mean to piss on anyones parade, but can a Canes fan tell me year-over-year is Necas' shot really improved to be twice as good? The man is shooting at 26.2% and is career 12.3? I'm not saying he's a bad player, just that I done this before that dopamine hit of "this player I always believed in is doing it!"

Hey, I'm even still doing it holding the bag thus far on Pettersson. His earlier shot totals in his career make me go "hmm" a bit more now. I'm really happy too, Necas I drafted this year. But if I gave more of a shit I'd be selling the shit high out of him right now and if you wouldn't do the same I don't know what to tell you. He'll hit a PPG for sure this year, all that said lol.

Take away 6 of his 11 goals to account for the shooting percentage if you'd like. Still 24 points in 17 games. And the eye test for anyone who has been watching him this year and in the past is that he's always had utterly insane talent and natural skill and ability, like in that McDavid tier (or 1 below if you put him on his own tier) even. His skating is just unbelievably good. His past issues have been in decision making and strength on the puck, which is where a switch seems to have flipped here because this year I haven't really seen a single bad decision made with the puck this year and he's become very hard to knock off the puck. He's finally seeing the ice and using his skills and his teammates to the best of his ability.

Also, I wasn't really clear in my other post. He's pacing for 145 points--no, I don't see that being likely to happen/being sustainable. What I meant by it being sustainable was that he has taken a step forward and this level of play is sustainable, I didn't mean that I think the level of production will hold up. But I do see him settling in as a consistent 82-100 point guy going forward. Maybe he does take another step even past that and could come closer to that 145 pace than anyone could've imagined. I don't see that happening but I wouldn't completely rule it out from watching him this year. Seriously, just watch the guy out there this year. He's been the best player on the ice damn near every shift and is a threat any time the puck is on his stick anywhere on the ice.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

Yeah I dont mean to piss on anyones parade, but can a Canes fan tell me year-over-year is Necas' shot really improved to be twice as good? The man is shooting at 26.2% and is career 12.3? I'm not saying he's a bad player, just that I done this before that dopamine hit of "this player I always believed in is doing it!"

Hey, I'm even still doing it holding the bag thus far on Pettersson. His earlier shot totals in his career make me go "hmm" a bit more now. I'm really happy too, Necas I drafted this year. But if I gave more of a shit I'd be selling the shit high out of him right now and if you wouldn't do the same I don't know what to tell you. He'll hit a PPG for sure this year, all that said lol.

His 5on5 shooting % is also almost twice his career average. The highest he’s seen his career to date is 8.6%, last season he was 7.3%. Right now he’s riding 15%(!)

10% is pretty good, 12% is too high, and 15% is absolutely absurd. For context McDavid’s 5on5% was 11% last season and 9.5% the year he put up 150.

Necas is very good but he’s not McDavid, and right now way too many goals are going in when he’s on the ice than can be reasonably expected. A career year is definitely happening but this torrid pace is way too hot for even someone like McDavid to sustain.

And the 26% personal sh% speaks for itself. That will come down also. Especially when his SOG/60 rate is actually the lowest it’s been in three years.

 

[DuklaNation]

1st line talent was treated as 2nd/3rd line talent for too long. That's on the coach.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

1st line talent was treated as 2nd/3rd line talent for too long. That's on the coach.

Yes and no. Necas in previous years did not play a good team game and utilize his teammates or gel with guys like Aho, Svech, etc. when given the opportunity. He would often play the game like it was him against the world and try to take on the entire team 1 v 5. He would often pull off some amazing things but then get pinned in or stripped of the puck leading to odd man rushes. No one knew how to play with him because he was playing with his head down trying to go it alone.

The Canes have a been a top team and competitive the last 5 seasons so they weren't going to disrupt their system of what was working in order to cater to Necas so he could get his cookies. With some players leaving in the off-season which has opened up more space and reliance on Necas, combined with Martin taking a much smarter approach we are seeing the results of both things coming together at the right time.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Not that Necas did anything to deserve the PP ice time cut, but the coach wasn't in the wrong there either. The structure (Burns/DeAngelo RHS point, Aho LHS left half wall, Svechnikov LHS right half-wall, Bunting/Guentzel LHS bumper, Jarvis RHS goal line) worked really well. Carolina finished with the #2 PP in the league last year.

 

[Svechhammer]

Yeah I dont mean to piss on anyones parade, but can a Canes fan tell me year-over-year is Necas' shot really improved to be twice as good? The man is shooting at 26.2% and is career 12.3? I'm not saying he's a bad player, just that I done this before that dopamine hit of "this player I always believed in is doing it!"

Hey, I'm even still doing it holding the bag thus far on Pettersson. His earlier shot totals in his career make me go "hmm" a bit more now. I'm really happy too, Necas I drafted this year. But if I gave more of a shit I'd be selling the shit high out of him right now and if you wouldn't do the same I don't know what to tell you. He'll hit a PPG for sure this year, all that said lol.

I mean with all due respect, its not like we're sitting here all saying that we expected Necas to have this kind of form this year. If anything, we're all just enjoying the ride for right now fully expecting him to come back down to earth at some point.

With that being said, we're nearly 25% into the season and he's still scorching hot, and the more you watch you start to realize he's playing a different game than he did in the past. Even last year, he had a tendency to skate himself into trouble, often. He basically led the team in turnovers his whole career, because he has a bad habit of trying to single handedly beat 4 opponents in the offensive zone by himself. But we're not seeing that this year. We're seeing him make the smart decisions to buy time and dump the puck to a corner or pull back and dump it to an open teammate behind the play that has never really been a part of his game so far. He's also moving the puck with intent to open up space for other players, which hasn't really been something he had shown before this season, and its helping him get a lot of primary and secondary assists.

Its as if the game slowed down for him at the World Championships this summer. We always knew he had an incredible amount of talent, and its long been said he had the most raw offensive talent on the team since he came in as a rookie, the only concern was if he would ever put it all together, and before this season there wasn't a lot of confidence he would be able to do it, at least not with the Canes. And so far this year, he's proving that thinking wrong.