with his season officially wrapped up now, its time for the silayev report. the big one for the big man. might even rant a little
Silayev is not just a dominant shutdown presence, he is perhaps one of the best we’ve seen come through the draft. The player showcases an elite level understanding of the defensive position and he handles his own zone like a longtime veteran. His gap control is spectacular, he’s a complete menace in the corners fighting for pucks, his timing and anticipation are both excellent, and he defends middle ice like his life depends on it. In spite of his youth, Silayev’s defensive positioning is incredible, and every single movement he makes is deliberately calculated to suppress chances.
all still valid. i have a feeling when we look at future DFD prospects down the road, silayev is gonna be one of those benchmarks we compare to
I hinted at it before, but he’s a physical beast, too. Not quite at the level of a Stian Solberg type bully, but Silayev is an absolute nightmare for opposing forwards to go up against in puck battles. The young defender absolutely owns the ice outside the crease and is more than willing to make anyone pay for trying to drive it. And while defending the rush? He’s always ready to crunch an opposing forward trying to streak in. Now, I don’t want this to come off like he’s only ever trying to kill forecheckers, he’s great at simply finishing checks and making proactive contact to take away space, but I imagine some huge checks will be a staple of his game long term.
reading this back, obviously the physicality is great and the projection to be this punishing brute is still very much there, but i think i slightly overhyped the level it was
at that time, which mightve been a recency bias thing since i came out of the khl playoffs really liking his edge. the defensive stickwork is legitimately outstanding and i think dedicating a whole paragraph to just his physicality mightve originally overshadowed that
Silayev is also an immaculate skater. Not perfect per se, his acceleration isn’t high end and his start and stop ability could use some work, but his four-way mobility is sublime and his top speed is quite fast. This is not a defender who is going to struggle against speed or get beat by cuts along the boards.
so much had been said about his skating that i probably just didnt feel like rehashing the same things over and over, but i wish i added something about his skating being elite
not just for his size, and something about how great his backskating is. again, it takes about 5 seconds of viewing to figure that out for yourself, but id say the discussion is incomplete without mentioning it
And perhaps the greatest aspect to his defensive game? He does all of this in combination. Silayev applies his effortless skating, great defensive stick work, and excellent physical edge in unison to beat forecheckers in a multitude of ways. He engulfs opposing forwards like a wet blanket, dampening their attack thanks to his contact, positioning, and active stick. And reminder, he’s doing this all at the KHL level against grown men (yes I said the line), we’re not talking about him beating up on children in a junior league.
Now then, take everything I just said, and scale it up a 6’7” 207lb beast. Every single aspect of his game gets that much easier to translate, and that much more effective with his reach and frame. Getting excited yet?
i hate the term "unicorn" in prospect discourse because of how chronically overused it is (not much of a unicorn if theres 3-4 kids a year that get called one...) BUT this is ultimately why silayev kept getting called it. the point isnt just that hes a big guy who skates really well, you can find kids like that who arent discussed as one. silayev was considered a unicorn because he had this extremely advanced defensive game blending a variety of tools and reads (and a great compete level on top of it)
at his size and
with his skating level. that was the rarity of it. you werent trading mobility for size, or size for ability, or ability for polish. going into that draft, he was already big, mobile, toolsy, and successful in the 2nd best league in the world. that was why even the most anti-DFD/pro-offense outlets in existence
still had to respect what he could offer, because these types of prospects dont come around very often
Of course, we certainly have some deficiencies to discuss, but I’ll present a bit of a caveat at the end. The biggest issue is that something changes with the player when he’s possessing the puck. The elite reads and anticipation are not always apparent. That’s not to say he doesn’t know how to handle the puck, but it feels as though, when trying to get it up to his forwards, he locks in on the first option he sees and commits to it, for better or for worse. So, sometimes you see him make sublime tape to tape passes that get a counterattack going quickly. Other times, you see him lob it straight to the other team, with our without being under pressure. Which side of him is the real one? I think there’s reason to believe in the good, he’s by no means getting lucky with the attempts that do connect, but it’s absolutely critical he open his eyes more and learn how to survey chances before committing, because he’s going to be pretty turnover prone if not.
One minor point to mention here is that Silayev, as a left shot defender, played a lot of RD this year. By no means can we use that as an excuse for his puck movement issues, very clearly you can load up tape and see him struggle from just about anywhere, but it does make it harder to get pucks up effectively when you don’t have the boards to rely on, so perhaps some of it could be influenced by that.
that point, ultimately, was not very minor lol. there are flaws ill get into shortly that still exist, but there was an
instant improvement in his breakout passing ability once he moved to the left side. instant. those good moments automatically appeared more often, and he had fewer
direct turnovers, as in passes straight to the opposition. some of this is an improved patience on the puck, which also was a pretty immediate DY to D+1 change in his game, but the whole LD/RD thing is a great example of why context and environmental influences need to come into play when discussing prospects. it should be expected that a teenage defender playing his weak side in that good of a league would struggle moving the puck at times. and even though i acknowledged it, im still not sure i accounted for it enough. now, there were still enough puck play concerns to where i dont think i wouldve bumped him up
too much, but the breakout issues were one of the biggest things for me, so if i had believed more in the positional influence, i couldve seen him a spot or two higher on my board
allow me a minute here. i previously mentioned a theory i had developed about his puck management/turnovers that i think helps reconcile some of the inconsistencies to his game (because, truthfully, they arent always bad). ultimately, i think this is just an immaturity to his game. now, thats not to say he still doesnt botch reads or rush plays or anything, this isnt to excuse very legitimate deficiencies we observe in his game. he can make poor decisions, he can misjudge lanes, he can get sloppy, i know all of that can still happen. but, i believe, at its core, the main reason he struggles with clears/breakouts is because he has one goal in mind every time the puck enters his zone: get it out. silayev
does not want the puck anywhere near his net, and if its in his control, he will make sure that thing is launched out of the zone. and this is precisely what i mean when i talk about goofy clears or unforced icings. its not that hes always being pressured on these plays, or that hes looking for stretch chances or anything. sometimes hes just launching them out for seemingly no reason. and ive seen enough good plays from him (delays, D-D passes, controlled exits before moving it, etc.) to know that this isnt how he fundamentally reads play on the puck, which is the whole point of the "believe the good" thing in the original passage
i like to think of it this way. pretend we're talking about a scoring winger instead. those types of kids
love to shoot the puck. at all costs. sometimes they show really good positional instincts or drive translatable scoring lanes in the process. other times you know theyre just kind of launching it at the net for the sake of doing so. these players inevitably have to learn that the best way to set up a scoring chance isnt always just firing it on net. they need to learn that, sometimes, first passing the puck off to a linemate could be the way to tee up a high danger shooting chance. sometimes its delaying and trying to catch the goalie in motion. sometimes its cutting back to maximize the space they have to work with. the point of all of this being, thats how i view silayev on clears/breakouts. maybe launching the puck up the boards is the best chance of clearing it. maybe its not. when he intercepts a puck inside his zone, maybe he doesnt immediately have to send it back out. developing that comfort level to know he can make an additional play
to lead to the clear (as opposed to forcing it himself) is, in my opinion, the biggest priority here
He's also not particularly skilled offensively, so anyone looking for points to validate the pick will be disappointed. Don’t let the historic KHL production fool you, either. He went on an (extremely unsustainable) early season hot streak that padded those numbers. Of course, that’s not to say he doesn’t offer anything offensively, his shot is relatively heavy for example, but no one should be expecting that much production. One positive, though, which could be a long-term benefit if built upon, is that his off-puck offensive zone movement shows flashes of very good ideas. This is a player who can activate, cerebrally attack pockets of space, and keep lanes open for his teammates to hit. We don’t see it a ton yet, and worse so is we didn’t even really see it in the MHL at the end of the year, but it does exist to a degree.
that off puck movement thing (which even started to turn into
on puck movement/rotations over the course of the year) is so critical to how silayev involves himself offensively, it progressed exactly like i hoped it would. the game sense to join in on rushes, or slip behind coverage, or threaten up the boards...by no means is it perfect, sometimes his spacing is off, sometimes hes coming in too hot, sometimes he cant find that extra connection, etc., but theres way more intent to his offensive contributions now. hes not afraid of having the puck at the point/just trying to get it off, its not like "oh, cute, the big man wants to be involved" when hes skating up the ice. silayev is jumping up in these sequences as a viable option for the puck carrier. hes backing defenders up, hes driving the net, hes threatening rebound opportunities, and he even has some carries where hes trying to carry pucks deep up the boards or even cut from outside in to direct pucks toward the paint. and on top of all that, i look at his flashes of 3v3 and 4v4 play when he has more space to work with and i see this greater interest/comfort to up his pace of play and try more things on the puck (cut backs, dekes(!), off zone rotations) and it makes me think theres still another level to go. i dont think hes purely talented enough to forecast a big uptick in production this year (or likely to be in a role that would make it possible anyway), but i wont be surprised if theres some sort of spike, theres enough things trending in the right direction that i think he can start to piece it together. the numbers say he didnt improve at all from DY to D+1 (which in prospect land is actually considered regression), but i can assure you that would be incorrect, he was just insanely lucky to start his DY. the production this year, be it secondary points off making stops or jumping up and being part of the rush, is more...legitimate, for lack of a better description
im sorry for b2b lengthy commentaries but this is where im gonna pause to rant. i wouldnt say its the most prevalent thing, but there have been enough times, particularly when compared to someone like buium, that ive seen silayev made out to be some ogre on the puck who refuses to ever cross his own blue line and its just so wrong, i dont know why we're diminishing his game like that. no, hes not "dynamic." no, hes not the slickest passer. no, he isnt teeing up bombs from the point (actually, this did get somewhere by seasons end). but that doesnt correspond to being a bum on the offensive side of things. i mean really guys...go load up the literal last game he played, which, might i remind you, is the
championship clinching game for torpedo's vhl affiliate. even on their first goal of the game youll see him fly up the ice as 4th man in, threaten a one time chance in the high slot, and then try to retrieve a puck
below the opposing goal line mere moments before its sent out front for a tap in. like...i get it, hes never gonna QB one of our PP units, sorry. but silayev is the ultimate
modern day DFD, which means hes still competing across all 200ft of the ice. alright, i got that out of my system now
One last issue, which I really don’t care about but bares mentioning, is that his MHL playoff showing was bad. Straight up, just burn the tape bad. Minimal offensive contribution, sloppy puck management, and not even that great of shutdown play. This doesn’t really matter to me, though. Not only is it common for KHL level talents to underperform when sent down (his teammate Artamonov did the exact same thing), but it is quite easy to believe he was fatigued at that point. And, not to mention, his KHL playoff showing was so good that it seems silly to punish him for not playing down to the junior level. Still, it had to be said.
the couple vhl viewings i had this year were fine. i thought the whole sloppy clears/reluctance to go D-D thing did appear a bit more at this level than it did in the khl, but his bread and butter game was still steady. loved the ramped up physicality, that was a nice carryover from the main squad. and its not lost on me that my favorite viewing was the last one i saw, game 5 of the championship series
Now, what’s the caveat I was discussing? Well, I’ve already mentioned it: it’s the current composition of our roster. Silayev is not coming here to be a #1 or #2 defender, we already have young defenders who project to be that. He’s coming here to be an elite #3 who plays top penalty kill and eats a heavy, heavy defensive assignment. And guess what? That makes life easier for Luke and Nemo, too. They won’t need to be deployed in those types of roles as much now. His puck management, while still important to work on, is mitigated by the fact he has two of the best young defensive puck movers in the game next to him, as well as a forward core that’s absolutely loaded with them.
im not gonna complain if he overshoots and we view him as a bigger piece than, say, nemo, but this is still one of my favorite aspects of the pick. silayev is a near perfect complement for the major pieces we already have. he elevates the teams outlook by virtue of both what he'll do himself and what he'll do for other players. if this current postseason doesnt sell you know how important he can be, i dont know what will. (should note theres a couple later sections that basically embellish this point again so im gonna skip them because this is already too long lol)
Simply put, this player should not have been available at 10. Bob’s consensus list from earlier this week did not just have him ranked 4th, it had him a near tier above all other defenders not named Artyom Levshunov. And, if we go further, he got as many votes as Levshunov did for top defender in the class. Two of my favorite outlets, Steve Kournianos and HockeyProspect, had him ranked 2nd and 5th, respectively. Every quote you can find from scouts raves about him, and if we factor in real scouting agencies, not just pie-in-the-sky armchair scouts, he was a near automatic top 5 selection. None of this is to say I bank my own opinion off of what other say, but it’s important to frame what the scouting community as a whole thinks of him.
thank god this team drafts out of russia because the value there is comical, almost every russian in that class went lower than expected. demidov 5? chernyshov day 2? cmon. honestly, if we went carolina mode and basically only ever drafted out of there, i wouldnt complain. not like most of our NA picks pan out that well anyway...
And ultimately, that’s really what it boils down to. It is unfair that a team with a future blue line as good as ours is now adding this type of player, and I imagine anyone who’s currently down on the pick will inevitably see it that way long term. If Silayev can manage a measly 30 some points a season, at his size, with his mobility and advanced defensive game, and without being a turnover merchant, he will be seen as one of the best overall defenders in the league. Guaranteed.
Thank you, Tom, for wisely keeping the pick, and addressing a clear team need in the process. I promise you there were no Anton Silayev’s available on the trade market for 10th overall. This past season was unbearably bad, but I have no doubt Silayev’s long term value to the team will help ease the pain, in retrospect at least.
i wake up every morning thankful that tom kept this pick and didnt spend it on an eiserman type prospect (sorry cole). whether this player winds up some sort of new age slavin or hes just a really solid pking 4D, its gonna be hard to overstate his importance. think about it, if hes some...erik cernak type defender, are you really that upset with the pick? even if better players went after him? theres plenty of reasons to critique toms draft strategy but this isnt one of them, even if, yes, you had buium ranked higher (like i did, too). and (i know this is kind of dumb but) i hate seeing him involved in quinn trade proposals as well. not that a player of quinns caliber shouldnt be able to command that and much more, but because these profiles dont really move, particularly for another offensively minded player, and it defeats the purpose of rounding out the blue line by opening up that void. silayev is a glue piece, if we moved him wed just spend the next however many years trying to replace him
hope you guys enjoyed this series
