RobertKron
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- Sep 1, 2007
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Anthony Romani (RW, OHL - North Bay) | 162nd Overall 2024 Draft
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RobertKron
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- Sep 1, 2007
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I think there's typically a correlation between teams drafting overagers and teams looking to speed up the development times needed for their prospects. I think in hockey, there's a genuine "risk" with drafting overagers all else being equal. Hockey talent is usually pretty heavily scouted from a young age that rarely do you have a player who was bypassed in a draft previously develop into a top 4 Dman or top 6 forward in the NHL. With that said, I don't have a problem with drafting overagers especially in the later rounds. Scouting is scouting and the Canucks have had some success signing CHL overagers (e.g. McEwen and Chatfield), and I would say Bains would have been worth drafting with a late round pick.
I think the most successful overager pick in recent memory is Tanner Pearson? Mallet is probably the worst.
I think the most successful overager pick in recent memory is Tanner Pearson? Mallet is probably the worst.
I think it has more to do with de-risking the pick than speeding up development time. We just spent a 6th round pick on a player that had a steeper development curve in his D(e)+1 season than any forward drafted out of the OHL last season....including all the 1st rounders. It's crazy to me that we got him where we did. I get that there are some areas he needs to improve, but IMO they are at least areas that can be improved. He'll get faster as he gets stronger, which will help his off puck neutral and defensive zone defending. I'd rather take (6th round) shots on guys like this than 1st round shots on guys with a big shot and great wheels but no hockey sense and shitty work habits (Virtanen for example).
Romani missed being first time eligible for the 2024 draft by only two months. And with some fairly ordinary stats, he sailed through seven rounds of the the 2023 draft without being selected.
But just imagine if the Canucks, or any other NHL team or that matter, had taken a flier on him in the 7th round of the 2023 draft......and then he goes back to the OHL and wracks up 58 goals and 111 points. Fans would be doing handsprings.
I have no idea what limitations he might have as a hockey player--but 111 points in any junior league is no walk in the park. He's got some serious offensive upside, there's no doubt about that.
But just imagine if the Canucks, or any other NHL team or that matter, had taken a flier on him in the 7th round of the 2023 draft......and then he goes back to the OHL and wracks up 58 goals and 111 points. Fans would be doing handsprings.
I have no idea what limitations he might have as a hockey player--but 111 points in any junior league is no walk in the park. He's got some serious offensive upside, there's no doubt about that.
And as it applies to Romani, I agree. Like I said, I don't know much about the player but I like the pick and don't have a problem with picking overagers.
I'm not quite sure what you mean here. I assume you're not saying that you rather have 6th round picks than 1st round picks if it means using 6th round picks on guys like Romani vs 1st round picks on guys like Virtanen. I mean 6th round picks carry little risk so you might as well swing for the fences or draft a player with outstanding traits that might translate.
Virtanen was considered an elite talent in his draft class. He didn't have the highest hockey IQ, but his size, speed, shot combination was second to none in his draft class. He was also one of the youngest players in his draft class. There was a lot to like and if not for his shoulder and off ice issues he probably would have a better career. He's more of a case who never figured out the type of player he needed to be. There was nothing wrong with drafting a player like Virtanen. The issue is the players that the Canucks bypassed to draft him.
correct, I'm not saying I'd rather have 6th round picks than 1st round picks. But i do take issue with the idea that 6th round picks carry little risk. All picks have essentially the same risk....it's the expected reward which changes as you move along in the draft. the expectation for reward is a lot lower late on the 2nd day of the draft and teams are usually taking players with fairly major flaws in their game. I like the idea of using these picks on guys that are successful despite the flaws...particularly if the flaws are addressable...or at least partly so.
I don't want to make this thread about Virtanen, i used him as an example because the pick was a near perfect illustration of what can happen on draft day when you're mesmerized with physical tools and ignore what should be serious red flags (in his case hockey IQ and injury concerns). That pick also highlights the risks of drafting someone who's fully developed physically vs under developed physically. Brayden Point let the U18 (WHL) scoring race that year by 20 points (Virtanen was 2nd) despite being 5'9,160lbs and playing on a godawful MJ team. Virtanen already had NHL size and speed.
yeah, he's absolutely perceived differently because he went undrafted last year (vs being a late 2nd day pick), despite having decent numbers....good for top 15 U18 scoring and not massively different than Easton Cowan (3 more goals 13 fewer assists).
The limiting factor for him will be foot speed. If he can get a little quicker (and a lot stronger), he has a legitimate chance at a pro career.
Tim Calhoun
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- May 31, 2006
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Probably not even the best overage pick in his own draft: Hellebuyck, Ullmark, Andersen, Parayko, Hutton, Martinook, Gostisbehere were all overage picks in 2012. Not to mention Nikita Gusev who is a KHL superstar.
There have been tons of more successful, more recent overage picks than Pearson.
Weegar
Copp
Arvidsson
D. Toews
Merzlikins
Matt Roy
Mangiapane
Gavrikov
Garland
Durzi
Colton
Batherson
etc.
There will be 5 guys on next year's Canucks who were overage picks (Garland, Soucy, Heinen, Desharnais, Aman).
Overage picks in rounds 3-7 are generally safer than first-time entries and have higher hit rates without really sacrificing any upside. This market just has some bizarre PTSD related to the Mallet pick in 2012 even though we got a massive hit with an overager on literally our very next pick with Ben Hutton.
Yeah agree there's often valued to be mined with overagers. But I think they should really be a star player in their league at that point to warrant consideration.
If you're still looking at "attributes" and projecting a jump in development with an overage player like Perkins last year (rather than picking a player who has demonstrated one), I think that's a pretty poor swing unless there's something truly spectacularly special with that player.
I generally agree (and you see this with hits like Mangiapane and Garland) but one thing I'll say is that production in the USHL is really f***ing hard to get a read on. Like, I've followed drafts and the CHL for decades now and generally speaking I understand the CHL and what the production there means and how it translates relative to other leagues. The USHL I have no idea. And you have stuff like this happening that makes no sense to me :
Like, *theoretically* the USHL is a worse league than the WHL/OHL but also there are virtually zero 16 year olds and far fewer 17 year olds (outside of the stacked NDTP team) and lots of 18-19 year old players which compensates for that, and there are also *a lot* of one-and-done rookies there who don't have the 2-3 years at the same level that CHL draftees do and are in an adjustment period for much of their draft year and under-produce relative to their abilities. So in the case of USHL guys like Perkins and Gaudette I don't think it's quite so easy to figure out.
Guys like Carson Focht and Brett McKenzie who were sub-PPG in the CHL in their draft+1? Yeah, those picks sucked.
I stand corrected. I was thinking of Pearson being a unique case where he was bypassed in 2 drafts and was drafted high.
Goalies are certainly different.
I think of the guys in the list, I would say the goalies and Paryko are better. Ghost is borderline better.
Anders Lee as well. PTSD from the Mallet pick is a real thing.
This thing where people freak out about overage picks is unique to this market and dates directly from the Mallet pick. It's totally PTSD.
But again, the weird thing is that we took another overage guy with our next selection who was a big hit and *nobody* remembers that.
Also Mallet went 57th and Jordan Martinook went 58th and Martinook was a double overage but nobody remembers that either.
The issue with Mallet wasn't that he was an overage pick, it's that he was a bad pick who just couldn't skate who the scouts overrated because he could really fight.
Tim Calhoun
#11
- May 31, 2006
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Mallet wasn’t even the worst double overage pick in that round: the Avs took some guy named Mitchell Heard 15 picks before us.
- May 3, 2021
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Mallet is still playing hockey! He just lead Dragons de Rouen to a championship in Synerglace Ligue Magnus, the highest tier of French hockey.
An aside - how the f*** does *France* support a 4 tier pro hockey structure with a total of 76 teams. The mind boggles.
An aside - how the f*** does *France* support a 4 tier pro hockey structure with a total of 76 teams. The mind boggles.
BenningHurtsMySoul
Unfair Huggy Bear
Mallet is one of the worst overage picks I've ever seen. 20 year old with pedestrian numbers in the Q that can fight. You can sign that guy 10/10 times in the offseason for free or offer a PTO.
RobertKron
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Not to defend the pick, but FWIW, he was a couple points away from top-10 in QMJHL scoring while also top-10 in PIM. You can kind of see what they were going for, in that it was hopefully an indicator that he had hands enough to be a useful bottom six guy with toughness. You wonder if things somehow turn out differently if they send him back for an OA season, or do the Grenier thing and send him to Europe instead of letting him end up in the coast.
Man that was slow with zero movement dead center over the plate Nd still sailing into the upper deck.
Yeah, there was a skill/grit/toughness toolset there where you can see where they were going for an Andrew Shaw-type projection (Shaw coincidentally was also a double-overage pick in the 2011 draft) but they just totally whiffed on his skating ability which was immediately exposed in pro hockey. Plus they probably overrated the importance of his fighting skills.
Probably also didn’t help that he was dropped into the Chicago Wolves era of AHL development.
Lindgren
Registered User
- Jun 30, 2005
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Daniel Wagner has a pretty thorough (and optimistic) look at Romani at Pass it to Bulis:
Canucks Prospects: Could Anthony Romani be the steal of the 2024 draft?
Canucks Prospects: Could Anthony Romani be the steal of the 2024 draft?
Exactly the kind of 'home run swing' you should be taking in the sixth round.
And Romani is one of only two guys drafted after round #5 to be invited to the Summer Showcase Development Tournament. Hopefully he sticks and and can get off to a hot OHL start--making him eligible for consideration on Canada's World Jr. Hockey Championship team.
And Romani is one of only two guys drafted after round #5 to be invited to the Summer Showcase Development Tournament. Hopefully he sticks and and can get off to a hot OHL start--making him eligible for consideration on Canada's World Jr. Hockey Championship team.
Nick Lang
Registered User
- May 14, 2015
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More than just goals, Romani led all under-19 players in the OHL with 111 points. The next highest was Quentin Musty, a first-round pick from last year’s draft. In fact, Romani out-scored several first-round picks from 2023: Easton Cowan, Calum Ritchie, Oliver Bonk (to be fair, a defenceman), Colby Barlow, and even 10th-overall pick Dalibor Dvorsky.
Musty was born on July 6, 2005. 6 days before Romani. He outscored all of these guys ... all older than he is.
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Draft Years that were considered weak at the time of the draft- Latest: Hockeyville USA
