Player Discussion: Anthony Cirelli

[These Are The Days]

Cirelli is gonna be fine. He's not the problem with the team as much as his cap hit is problematic. The fastest way to fixing this him playing better. But you can say that about everyone on the team

 

[Rschmitz]

If they kept him at 3c and paid him like one we'd be in good shape. But this was a contract they gave him in anticipation of him being a solid 2c, and he simply doesn't have the offensive game for it.

 

[These Are The Days]

If they kept him at 3c and paid him like one we'd be in good shape. But this was a contract they gave him in anticipation of him being a solid 2c, and he simply doesn't have the offensive game for it.

A lot of it is the playoff effect. He will be dog turds for the season and come playoff time he's one of out best guys on the ice by playing smart, effective hockey even if he is not scoring. Sergachev is the exact same way. These guys earn their paychecks in the Conference Finals and not December.

I think one can argue it was a mistake to offer such a deal but I will defend a manager for taking care of his guys after they took pay cuts

 

[LightningStrikes]

It’s not like he’s successfully shutting anybody down right now. Team gets blown out every other night. So either pinch in offensively or let’s look into moving him.

I know we paid for two Cups (and more) where he’s been a big part defensively but that’s a hell of a lot of money and cap tied up for nothing on both sides of the ice right now.

 

[These Are The Days]

It’s not like he’s successfully shutting anybody down right now. Team gets blown out every other night. So either pinch in offensively or let’s look into moving him.

I know we paid for two Cups (and more) where he’s been a big part defensively but that’s a hell of a lot of money and cap tied up for nothing on both sides of the ice right now.

Sadly there's not a lot of cap space happening around the league

 

[Stammertime91]

Up to five goals now! Crazy production!

 

[RDTBay4]

I truly don't understand the Cirelli hate.

 

[Sky04]

It’s not like he’s successfully shutting anybody down right now. Team gets blown out every other night. So either pinch in offensively or let’s look into moving him.

I know we paid for two Cups (and more) where he’s been a big part defensively but that’s a hell of a lot of money and cap tied up for nothing on both sides of the ice right now.

Did you watch the 2020 run? He got his ass carried to a cup trying to re-learn how to skate after that break. The only run where he was in a significant defensive role was 2022/23 after we lost the Gourde line, aside from that he was on a scoring role in both cup runs, the 2020 run was brutal as him, Johnson and Killorn was easily our worst line and the only line to get scored on far more than they were scoring.

 

[Stammertime91]

Did you watch the 2020 run? He got his ass carried to a cup trying to re-learn how to skate after that break. The only run where he was in a significant defensive role was 2022/23 after we lost the Gourde line, aside from that he was on a scoring role in both cup runs, the 2020 run was brutal as him, Johnson and Killorn was easily our worst line during that run and the only line to get scored on far more than they were scoring.

Agreed. He was far more important in the second and I thought he did well the 22 run and against Toronto last season. He's good but still a premium or luxury for us, still. He's a 2.5C getting paid 2C money when he's better suited in a checking role. He does enough to warrant keeping because he's good defensively but offensively, if we have to rely on him, we are up shits creek without a paddle as our 2C.

 

[Tampa22]

I truly don't understand the Cirelli hate.

Come on, he's clearly overpaid. I don't think anybody hates him, but his salary is the reason of any debate about him.

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Come on, he's clearly overpaid. I don't think anybody hates him, but his salary is the reason of any debate about him.

Yikes!! Terrible takes here, you guys really showing your lack of hockey knowledge. The fact you all believe he was carried by the Gourde line is pretty sad, short term memory to justify your weak arguments. He finished top 5 in selke voting twice, with that on his resume including 2 stanley cups, playing against the other teams top line, and a top 5 forward in mins played....was NOT carried. In the open market he would have fetched near $7+. You want to judge a contract based on 25 games in the 1st year of an 8 yr contract, when your team is in transition, a new bottom 6, missing arguably the best goalie in the NHL?? Tell me who is regular linemates have been, how much PP time, how much PK time, zone starts, etc. Simple to just look at G/A when the team is clearly struggling.

 

[Tampa22]

You can explain and debate all what you want, but if I'm a GM never pay 6 m to a 3rd line center with 6, 2 or none Stanley cups. I get all the pros about Cirelli but it's not about the knowledge of the sport, it's just about don't have cap space to get a decent defense.

 

[JTBF81]

He's at most 1 million overpaid, and probabaky closer to 750k. In any case, even if he had signed in the 5.3-5.5 range, there would have been no real space to address the defense with anyone that was going to be significantly better than what they have now. Perhaps if JBB hadn't drastically overpaid Serg and also slightly overpaid Cernak, then in combination with the slight overpay on Cirelli there would've been enough to add an actual defensive improvement, but the difference in Cirelli's contract between what he got and what fans think he deserved isn't the reason a better dman wasn't acquired.

 

[Sky04]

Yikes!! Terrible takes here, you guys really showing your lack of hockey knowledge. The fact you all believe he was carried by the Gourde line is pretty sad, short term memory to justify your weak arguments. He finished top 5 in selke voting twice, with that on his resume including 2 stanley cups, playing against the other teams top line, and a top 5 forward in mins played....was NOT carried. In the open market he would have fetched near $7+. You want to judge a contract based on 25 games in the 1st year of an 8 yr contract, when your team is in transition, a new bottom 6, missing arguably the best goalie in the NHL?? Tell me who is regular linemates have been, how much PP time, how much PK time, zone starts, etc. Simple to just look at G/A when the team is clearly struggling.

I'd say if your opinion is the opposite of a delusional Leafs fan then it's probably right.

He didn't play against the other teams top lines in the cup runs though, wanna know who did? Starts with a G.

 

[Stammertime91]

It's more of "live up to it" than anybody hating him. He needs to produce. We didn't pay him to defend and not score. Score. Pretty simple ask.

 

[JTBF81]

Perhaps if Cirelli could develop any rhythm with stable linemates, that would also help. He's been shifted around a bit this season already. He's still hovering around the .5 ppg mark, which is slightly below what he usually produces. It'd be great if he could hit 50 points or better, but if he's going to be deployed and used as a 3C and not given PP1 time, that will also negatively affect his offensive output. He's slightly overpaid, but not by enough to be the reason why Tampa doesn't have another viable top 6 winger or top 4 dman.

 

[LeafLoyalist]

I'd say if your opinion is the opposite of a delusional Leafs fan then it's probably right.

He didn't play against the other teams top lines in the cup runs though, wanna know who did? Starts with a G.

I live with delusional Leaf fans, i am certainly not one of them. I do recall Cirelli being a huge factor in both cup runs, and a quick look will show you he averaged 2 mins ice time per game more than Gourde and more over Goodrow/Coleman in 2019/2020 and 3rd highest forward mins, and his highest opponent mins were against the likes of Marchand/Pastarnak, Dubois/Bjorkstrand, Barzal/Eberle, Seguin/Pavelski....pretty sure those were the best of the best for each team. The 2020/2021 run wasn't as difficult though, but was still 4th highest in total F mins, just behind Gourde Point Kucherov, still playing against tough opponents but not as difficult as 2019/2020, and all this while being youngest F on the team. And looking in 2021/2022 he was 2nd highest in F mins just behind Kucherov, losing in the Cup final, and he in fact faced the most difficult opposition the entire playoffs. With Point out and him seperating his shoulder could have possibly been a 3peat. How quick fans forget the impact players have made to their success to only run them out of town when things get tough....i know that being a Toronto fan.

Are you not all surprised to the struggle out of the gates for your team? Best goalie out, almost an entire new bottom 6, and from what i have heard a new defensive system? I remember when we played you guys he was on 3rd line with Jeannot and Eyssimont, and nowhere near PP, i don''t know much about those wingers but doubtful they have above average offensive talent.

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Did you watch the 2020 run? He got his ass carried to a cup trying to re-learn how to skate after that break. The only run where he was in a significant defensive role was 2022/23 after we lost the Gourde line, aside from that he was on a scoring role in both cup runs, the 2020 run was brutal as him, Johnson and Killorn was easily our worst line and the only line to get scored on far more than they were scoring.

FYI he had more mins than Gourde, Cirelli averaged 20:08/game, Gourde 18:19/game....and Cirelli had much more difficult match ups than Gourde line in 2019/2020.

 

[Rschmitz]

Let's compare him to O'Reilly. ROR has never scored 30 goals and has only topped 70 points once in his career.

Cirelli has never hit 20 goals and has never had more than 44 points. Right now he's projected to score 16 goals and 35 points. That's not good enough as a #2 C.

He needs to be between O'Reilly production and his career high production. 20-25 goals and 55-60 points. I don't think that is asking too much, he gets 18 minutes of ice time a game and plays with enough offensive minded forwards.

BTW O'Rielly right now is being paid 4.5 AAV and is projected to score 38 goals and 72 points. Pisses me off that he was available this offseason and we didn't go out and get him.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I'd say it's more about recent play than previous. Which should be understandable. Most people tend to look at what have you done for me lately not the past as valuable as he was during those runs. He is still a valuable player in those situations. I think we just need more offense out of him right now. Especially right now when it's mostly top line players doing it and not much else. At his pay it's not a huge ask. Regardless of how good he was in those runs.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Let's compare him to O'Reilly. ROR has never scored 30 goals and has only topped 70 points once in his career.

Cirelli has never hit 20 goals and has never had more than 44 points. Right now he's projected to score 16 goals and 35 points. That's not good enough as a #2 C.

He needs to be between O'Reilly production and his career high production. 20-25 goals and 55-60 points. I don't think that is asking too much, he gets 18 minutes of ice time a game and plays with enough offensive minded forwards.

BTW O'Rielly right now is being paid 4.5 AAV and is projected to score 38 goals and 72 points. Pisses me off that he was available this offseason and we didn't go out and get him.

O’Reilly made more in his prime and was a bonafide #1C, probably an unfair expectation. But I generally agree, another comparable would be Phillip Danault. $5.5M per year while providing elite defense and scoring 50-55 points a year. I would be perfectly happy with that.

Last year I gave Cirelli the benefit of the doubt because of his injury. This year I expect a step up. I get the arguments for the value his brings in the playoffs, but our current composition isn’t getting us there. With how much he makes you start to question whether having a shutdown specialist making $6M is a luxury for a top-heavy team.

 

[OffBy1]

He's at most 1 million overpaid, and probabaky closer to 750k.

For 8 years....

 

[Rschmitz]

O’Reilly made more in his prime and was a bonafide #1C, probably an unfair expectation. But I generally agree, another comparable would be Phillip Danault. $5.5M per year while providing elite defense and scoring 50-55 points a year. I would be perfectly happy with that.

Last year I gave Cirelli the benefit of the doubt because of his injury. This year I expect a step up. I get the arguments for the value his brings in the playoffs, but our current composition isn’t getting us there. With how much he makes you start to question whether having a shutdown specialist making $6M is a luxury for a top-heavy team.

About a million more.


I'm not holding the bar for Cirelli at O'Rielly's level of play in his prime though

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Let's compare him to O'Reilly. ROR has never scored 30 goals and has only topped 70 points once in his career.

Cirelli has never hit 20 goals and has never had more than 44 points. Right now he's projected to score 16 goals and 35 points. That's not good enough as a #2 C.

He needs to be between O'Reilly production and his career high production. 20-25 goals and 55-60 points. I don't think that is asking too much, he gets 18 minutes of ice time a game and plays with enough offensive minded forwards.

BTW O'Rielly right now is being paid 4.5 AAV and is projected to score 38 goals and 72 points. Pisses me off that he was available this offseason and we didn't go out and get him.

Comparing someone who plays top line mins and top pp with a player playing with 3rd liners and minimal pp2 mins is weak. Cirelli hit 44 pts in a shortened season, would have been most likely 50+ and again hardly any pp time. Tampa has struggled this season for many reasons and hard to make projections of players 20+ games into an 8 yr contract. I’m sure you can agree most 2c players typically play regularly on pp1 and with more regular line mates, Cirelli has shown he should easily hit 50-55 pts as a minimum if given the opportunity, hard to fault a player for lack of pts without given the opportunities… who have been his most regular line mates this season… jeannot and eyyisimont hardly offensively talented wingers. And his 18 mins per night are pretty much a lot of pk mins and toughest matchups. Oreilly ev points 12 playing on top line, Cirelli Ev points 10 playing with 3rd liners.
Sometimes it’s best to look at current situation before making judgements.

 

[Rschmitz]

Comparing someone who plays top line mins and top pp with a player playing with 3rd liners and minimal pp2 mins is weak. Cirelli hit 44 pts in a shortened season, would have been most likely 50+ and again hardly any pp time. Tampa has struggled this season for many reasons and hard to make projections of players 20+ games into an 8 yr contract. I’m sure you can agree most 2c players typically play regularly on pp1 and with more regular line mates, Cirelli has shown he should easily hit 50-55 pts as a minimum if given the opportunity, hard to fault a player for lack of pts without given the opportunities… who have been his most regular line mates this season… jeannot and eyyisimont hardly offensively talented wingers. And his 18 mins per night are pretty much a lot of pk mins and toughest matchups. Oreilly ev points 12 playing on top line, Cirelli Ev points 10 playing with 3rd liners.
Sometimes it’s best to look at current situation before making judgements.

I was comparing Cirelli to O'Rielly because in his prime he was considered the best two way center in the game, a perennial Selke candidate, and Cirelli is our version of him. I did not say Cirelli was O'Rielly.

I made the point that even so, O'Rielly couldn't score 30 goals and only hit 70 points once, to show that the offensive expectations people have for Cirelli should be modest.

Yet after your entire post you conclude that Cirelli should be good for 55 points, that is the number of points I concluded Cirelli should put up to meet expectations. Um, okay, what was your point again?