Speculation: Anthony Cirelli offer sheet

[McJedi]

For record I think COL gets Killorn passes on Johnson.

As far as Johnson lets just say TB had to give up a 2 for giggles. So what does acquiring team get? Well you get 5m hit and actual 3.75m salary player and guessing owners in this climate really like saving money. Maybe even get it down to 4m and 2.75 actual and TB retains. If you are having cap issues then you leave available in ED. The forwards available are not looking great and a reasonable salary mid 6 guy probably flows to Seattle depending upon team acquiring (Colorado is deeper for example). IF Tb retained 1m a 4m Johnson would absolutely go in ED. So team gets one year of Johnson and a free 2nd for cap space.

Seattle would take Cernak over Tyler Johnson without hesitation if both are exposed by Tampa as has been speculated often at HF when looking at who Tampa would leave exposed. Now if Tampa retained $1.25MM of TJ's contract and traded the Avs a 2nd round pick, that is something Sakic could consider.

To Avs. Tyler Johnson at $3.75MM AAV
2021 Tampa 2nd round pick

To Tampa. Some 32 year old AHL player.

Not pretty for Tampa, but they have no leverage in a trade talk with Avs over a Tampa player with full NTC Tampa wants off their roster to resign other players.

 

[BatVader]

Jets will be out of OS contention because our 3rd will be going to Vegas... but I’m all for trading for Cirelli.
Would Tampa be interested in ‘21 1st + Lowry (50% retained) + Logan Stanley/Sami Niku/or Leon Gawanke?

 

[Richard88]

Unless Tampa is dumb enough add a sweeter to the Avs to take on Killorn, that deal never happens. The Avs have ample cap space to add to their roster without trading for a 29 year old making $4.5MM with pretty significant NTC. That contract has negative value to the Avs, but real value to other teams with less cap space.

Tampa will find a better dance partner for a Killorn trade than the Avs. And the Avs will find better use of their cap space than helping out Tampa via trade for one of their older wingers that doesn't fit the Avs timeline or roster. The Avs will use UFA and RFA offer sheets when the off-season starts. They may just blow mush of it on Taylor Hall as he'd be a good fit stylistically on the 1st line, allowing them to move Landy to the 2nd line with Kadri and Burakovsky. That's not what I hope they do, but it won't surprise me if it is what they pursue.

I don't see why Killorn would have negative value to Colorado but real value to other teams with less capspace than Colorado.... Surely it's the other way around?

Colorado have excess capspace so Killorn's $4.5m contract wouldn't be an issue, but for other contenders with less capspace a contract like that would be a more significant dent in their roster.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Seattle would take Cernak over Tyler Johnson without hesitation if both are exposed by Tampa as has been speculated often at HF when looking at who Tampa would leave exposed. Now if Tampa retained $1.25MM of TJ's contract and traded the Avs a 2nd round pick, that is something Sakic could consider.

To Avs. Tyler Johnson at $3.75MM AAV
2021 Tampa 2nd round pick

To Tampa. Some 32 year old AHL player.

Not pretty for Tampa, but they have no leverage in a trade talk with Avs over a Tampa player with full NTC Tampa wants off their roster to resign other players.

Part of getting Seattle to take money, Cernak or Foote has to be traded pre ED. agreed 100%. Knowing you should get at least a 1st for either player I would think trade before ED or trade with Seattle to take different player.

As far as Johnson above its not pretty for TB but its a far far far better option than trading Serge for picks or Cirelli for d men you can't keep in ed. Johnson can waive with chance to win.

Your post is well thought out.

 

[CraigsList]

Seattle would take Cernak over Tyler Johnson without hesitation if both are exposed by Tampa as has been speculated often at HF when looking at who Tampa would leave exposed. Now if Tampa retained $1.25MM of TJ's contract and traded the Avs a 2nd round pick, that is something Sakic could consider.

To Avs. Tyler Johnson at $3.75MM AAV
2021 Tampa 2nd round pick

To Tampa. Some 32 year old AHL player.

Not pretty for Tampa, but they have no leverage in a trade talk with Avs over a Tampa player with full NTC Tampa wants off their roster to resign other players.

Or Tampa Bay can just pay Seattle to take Johnson. Many teams did that with Vegas and it turned out to be a better deal for Vegas.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Or Tampa Bay can just pay Seattle to take Johnson. Many teams did that with Vegas and it turned out to be a better deal for Vegas.

TB need the cap space now. Killorn is gone and one of Gourde, Johnson, Palat, Ryan Mc have to go to retain Cirelli and Serge. You may have to retain 1 million, or trade picks or even both to make it happen.

As far as ED assuming Cernak and Foote were on roster next year.
a) you move one of them pre ED.
b) You go 4x4 and loses Palat or kid f. Losing kid doesn't solve cap issues and Seattle you bet would be bluffing. And multiple years of Cernak control (assuming you are planning to keep long term) is more valuable than 1 year of Palat control.
c) Prearrange trade with Seattle. You better believe Seattle will want 1's or young forwards to do this.
d) What should NOT be an option is leaving Cernak or Foote available and lose for free.

 

[Richard88]

Or Tampa Bay can just pay Seattle to take Johnson. Many teams did that with Vegas and it turned out to be a better deal for Vegas.

The ED is 1 year way though, and Tampa need capspace for 2020/21.

 

[JTBF81]

The ED is 1 year way though, and Tampa need capspace for 2020/21.

Yes, but the point holds true that Tampa would likely pay Seattle to take the F they wanted between the remaining 2 of Palat/TJ/Gourde in order to keep the 5 defensemen. The only way I couldn't see this happening is if Tampa really wanted to part ways with McD after next year(seems doubtful), or one of Cernak/Foote(trade one before the draft). Some of this will depend on if they can re-sign Coleman and Goodrow and how the newer, younger forwards continue to progress. If Tampa gets a good year out of the 5 main dmen though, it's hard to see them not wanting to keep that core together past next year.