Speculation: Another year of this Bluc **** (The 2024 season thread)

[Axl Rhoadz]

Hopefully he is a key role player on a championship Kings team, but that doesn't mean that the spot he was drafted at is justified.

And what determines that justification? Every top projection list out there had Turcotte going in the top 5.

This isn't Thomas f***ing Hickey.

 

[BigKing]

And what determines that justification? Every top projection list out there had Turcotte going in the top 5.

This isn't Thomas f***ing Hickey.

Results are being discussed, not what projections said at the time. If the results don't matter, just get rid of the draft and have the players assigned to each team by draft ranking and draft order, also known as the Dave Taylor.

It will be worse than Thomas Hickey if Turcotte doesn't have as good of a career as Hickey while actually being projected as a Top 5 pick.

I say all of this as someone that finally bought into this team having a chance to make noise due in part to Turcotte moving down the lineup to drive a killer 4th line. That doesn't change the fact that you don't go into the draft with a Top 5 pick and hope you nab Nic Dowd.

Remember that I paid real American dollars for seven season seats during the 2018-19 season and my reward--because the Kings owed me--was Alex Turcotte.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

I say all of this as someone that finally bought into this team having a chance to make noise due in part to Turcotte moving down the lineup to drive a killer 4th line. That doesn't change the fact that you don't go into the draft with a Top 5 pick and hope you nab Nic Dowd.

And then when you get a player like Alex Lafierriere in the 3rd round, maybe all of this is just a wash - and a crap shoot.

 

[All The Kings Men]

IIRC Danault is heading into his last year contractually which is also a factor.

Danault is currently in year 4 of a 6 year deal.

Next year will be year 5.

 

[BigKing]

And then when you get a player like Alex Lafierriere in the 3rd round, maybe all of this is just a wash - and a crap shoot.

Drafting is not an exact science, but to just say it is a crap shoot basically absolves any GM of responsibility as long as they follow CSB's rankings.

That is way too close to the "How was he supposed to know?" excuse that gets used for apologists of coaches and GMs worldwide. It is their job to be better than those of us on the internet that can read TSN's draft rankings.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Results are being discussed, not what projections said at the time. If the results don't matter, just get rid of the draft and have the players assigned to each team by draft ranking and draft order, also known as the Dave Taylor.

It will be worse than Thomas Hickey if Turcotte doesn't have as good of a career as Hickey while actually being projected as a Top 5 pick.

I say all of this as someone that finally bought into this team having a chance to make noise due in part to Turcotte moving down the lineup to drive a killer 4th line. That doesn't change the fact that you don't go into the draft with a Top 5 pick and hope you nab Nic Dowd.

Remember that I paid real American dollars for seven season seats during the 2018-19 season and my reward--because the Kings owed me--was Alex Turcotte.

Results are being discussed, but what he is saying is that by every metric out there, Turcotte was ranked in the top 10...before the draft.....you don't draft him hoping he will be a Nic Dowd, absolutely, but you can't sit here years down the road going, welp, they should have known, no one else would have drafted him that high (not saying that is what you are saying)

 

[King'sPawn]

Drafting is not an exact science, but to just say it is a crap shoot basically absolves any GM of responsibility as long as they follow CSB's rankings.

That is way too close to the "How was he supposed to know?" excuse that gets used for apologists of coaches and GMs worldwide. It is their job to be better than those of us on the internet that can read TSN's draft rankings.

Yup. It's important to acknowledge there are variables that come in play. Some can't be controlled by the player (e.g. genetic issues affecting how much he grows, unforeseen health risks, external issues with team dynamics). Some can't be controlled by the team (player has immaturity issues, player doesn't exercise along with team plans). And some that can't be attributed to anybody (i.e.the player just isn't good enough at the NHL level no matter how hard he tries). But even then, the onus is on the team to identify risk factors that contribute to this.

Just because there are variables doesn't mean it's a crap shoot.

On another note, Kenny Connors signed his ELC but has a broken foot:

BREAKING NEWS: LA Kings and Connors Agree to Entry-Level Contract

mayorsmanor.com

Kirill Kirsanov's team was also swept in the first round, so I'm curious if and when he'll sign.

 

[johnjm22]

If you miss on a top 5 pick, it's mostly just bad luck.

Americans set to dominate first round of the NHL Draft - TSN.ca

While NHL scouts can and will weigh and measure the merits of Jack Hughes vs. Kaapo Kakko, there’s no debating this - a Canadian will not be the No. 1 overall pick in the NHL draft for an unprecedented fourth consecutive year.

www.tsn.ca

1. Jack Hughes
2. Kaapo Kakko
3. Bowen Byram
4. Alex Turcotte
5. Kirby Dach
6. Dylan Cozens
7. Trevor Zegras
8. Vasily Podkolzin
9. Cole Caufield
10. Peyton Krebs

Those aren't just "TSN draft rankings" these are based on surveying actual NHL team scouts.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Drafting is not an exact science, but to just say it is a crap shoot basically absolves any GM of responsibility as long as they follow CSB's rankings.

That is way too close to the "How was he supposed to know?" excuse that gets used for apologists of coaches and GMs worldwide. It is their job to be better than those of us on the internet that can read TSN's draft rankings.

It's absolutley a crap shoot for a large majority of the picks... there is no guarantee even if a player is drafted #1.

EVERYONE had Alex Lafreniere as the next Sidney Crosby. How did that turn out?

 

[tbrown33]

delete

 

[KINGS17]

Drafting is not an exact science, but to just say it is a crap shoot basically absolves any GM of responsibility as long as they follow CSB's rankings.

That is way too close to the "How was he supposed to know?" excuse that gets used for apologists of coaches and GMs worldwide. It is their job to be better than those of us on the internet that can read TSN's draft rankings.

The chicken or the egg. Do the Kings amateur draft scouts suck, or does the development team suck?

 

[CarlSneep]

If you miss on a top 5 pick, it's mostly just bad luck.

Americans set to dominate first round of the NHL Draft - TSN.ca

While NHL scouts can and will weigh and measure the merits of Jack Hughes vs. Kaapo Kakko, there’s no debating this - a Canadian will not be the No. 1 overall pick in the NHL draft for an unprecedented fourth consecutive year.

www.tsn.ca

1. Jack Hughes
2. Kaapo Kakko
3. Bowen Byram
4. Alex Turcotte
5. Kirby Dach
6. Dylan Cozens
7. Trevor Zegras
8. Vasily Podkolzin
9. Cole Caufield
10. Peyton Krebs

Those aren't just "TSN draft rankings" these are based on surveying actual NHL team scouts.

In retrospect the fact that all the American players have Timothee Chalamet’s body type should have been a bigger red flag

 

[BigKing]

Results are being discussed, but what he is saying is that by every metric out there, Turcotte was ranked in the top 10...before the draft.....you don't draft him hoping he will be a Nic Dowd, absolutely, but you can't sit here years down the road going, welp, they should have known, no one else would have drafted him that high (not saying that is what you are saying)

I know what he is saying, which is why I'm responding to it. This started with Axl bemoaning the fact someone would complain about his draft position and just look at the positives of the Turcotte experience so far. Sorry, but it is a failure of a draft pick and there is nothing wrong with saying something like "Love that he has stayed mostly healthy this season and looks like he will be a useful player, but I wish they drafted someone else at 5OA because his output and most likely future in this league is not that of a 5OA player."

That is not what I'm saying, but I will say it now because, again, this is the apologist argument. They are paid to be the best at what they do, so they should know. Just because another team would have also drafted him that high, doesn't mean there is no blame to be applied. Like, if the f***ing Buffalo Sabres would have done it as well, should that mean it is okay? You want a GM that doesn't just do whatever everyone else would do. If that is what you have, what makes him anything special?

It's absolutley a crap shoot for a large majority of the picks... there is no guarantee even if a player is drafted #1.

EVERYONE had Alex Lafreniere as the next Sidney Crosby. How did that turn out?

There are no guarantees, but saying it is a complete crap shoot means they should just get rid of amateur scouting departments because none of it matters.

 

[johnjm22]

Kirill Kirsanov's team was also swept in the first round, so I'm curious if and when he'll sign.

I'll be curious to see how he turns out. A lot of outside observers liked that pick.

As of this year it looks like he was still spending significant time in the VHL.

Hard to gauge his progress unless you're watching/following Russian hockey.

 

[johnjm22]

I heard Stoll was complaining about the attendance last night?

It did look like a lot of empty seats.

LA has seen the second largest YOY attendance decline in the league.

 

[King'sPawn]

I'll be curious to see how he turns out. A lot of outside observers liked that pick.

As of this year it looks like he was still spending significant time in the VHL.

Hard to gauge his progress unless you're watching/following Russian hockey.

Part of the issue is similar to Koehn Ziemmer. Had an injury at a bad time and so physical fitness has been poor. With Ziemmer, you saw his play and production drop sharply as the season progressed. Kirsanov was moved around in the VHL and KHL all season. He finally ended in the KHL to conclude the season, but fitness is definitely the biggest question mark for both.

I'm hoping both come to So Cal sooner rather than later so people are pushing them to the gym.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I heard Stoll was complaining about the attendance last night?

It did look like a lot of empty seats.

LA has seen the second largest YOY attendance decline in the league.

So weird though. Lagging indicator? Because it makes no sense that the team is trash at home and sees great attendance then goes nuclear at home and sees bad attendance.

Season ticket drop?

Drop in # of seats with renovations? Isn't there a new luxury section or something that's always empty?

I question those #s., or at least the methodology...

 

[johnjm22]

So weird though. Lagging indicator? Because it makes no sense that the team is trash at home and sees great attendance then goes nuclear at home and sees bad attendance.

Season ticket drop?

Drop in # of seats with renovations? Isn't there a new luxury section or something that's always empty?

I question those #s., or at least the methodology...

NHL Attendance Report 2024-25 - Sound Of Hockey

With 20% of the NHL season now complete, we thought it would be a good time to check in on the attendance across the league.

soundofhockey.com

The article I pulled from speculates:

"The Kings and Penguins continue to experience soft attendance numbers, with the largest declines in the NHL season-over-season. Pittsburgh’s low numbers are likely due to missing the playoffs last season and a current season that appears to be heading in the same direction.

The Kings’ low attendance numbers are partially attributed to the devastating Los Angeles wildfires that impacted the area.”

 

[Coffee]

There are a lot of my fellow Kings fans who have refused to notice that they are bigger, faster, stronger along the walls, tougher, younger and better slotted than the pushovers that laid down for the Oilers over the past two years.

I’m an outsider, but wanted to post bland’s post here.

It’s true to be honest, not sure if you guys just don’t engage as much on main boards or if you guys are just underrating your players.


Of course just a generalized assumption here but wanted to share bland’s post and brief thoughts

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I heard Stoll was complaining about the attendance last night?

It did look like a lot of empty seats.

LA has seen the second largest YOY attendance decline in the league.

Who knew that pricing the fans out would lead to a drop in attendance? Their concession prices on top of all that are unreasonable.

 

[chris kontos]

This yrs version of the kings is ALOT more competative than in recent yrs. The tspe to tape passes, agressive play, solid goaltending are all good indicators of a team thats primed to win. But i dont think blame can be assigned to many of us that need to be shown that the team is in fact progressing from no playoff series wins in 10 yrs to at least progressing into the second round. The goal in any competition should be to be first- and not just to be counted among fellow competetors. This is the first yr in the present management's tenure that the team looks like a winner.

 

[bland]

Personally I haven't been to a home game since the 2014 Finals. Don't enjoy the experience much, and the cost of the night out hasn't been matched by the quality of the games. Can't say if that is the norm, but LA has always been a front runner city. If the Kings win a round it wouldn't surprise me to see an uptick in next year's crowds.

 

[bland]

I’m an outsider, but wanted to post bland’s post here.

It’s true to be honest, not sure if you guys just don’t engage as much on main boards or if you guys are just underrating your players.


Of course just a generalized assumption here but wanted to share bland’s post and brief thoughts

Oh, they hear my shit all the time.

I am far from optimistic, and my enjoyment of the sport is more based on longterm growth and development of the franchise than the game to game results.

Things changed this past summer. The "right" decisions for growth were made. They stopped chasing name talent with the only plan being to just squeeze them in somewhere. Every stinking time those moves pushed the kids out of the spots that would be best for their development. The team lacked balls, frankly. They lost the vast majority of board battles, and the 1-3-1 was just delayed capitulation.

So I think we were expecting Blake to go all-in on his failures for one last spin around the bowl before it flushed for good. Then something funny happened. He FINALLY focused on support/bridge players that would benefit the transition to the kids. I thought he massively overpaid for Edmundson and Jeannot, still do - but damned if they didn't add teeth to the team. Foegle was always a good signing. But getting out from under Dubois was a miracle. I was wrong about Kuemper, I thought he was cooked with Washington. The Kings make it easier on goalies than anybody, so I assumed it would be no different than Talbot last year.

Then Hiller changed the passive 1-3-1 to a FAR more aggressive 1-2-2 that encouraged outnumbered attacks going forward. Roy, who I was a fan of, was a safety first, second and third defenseman who couldn't clear the zone against Edmonton to save his life.

Doughty getting hurt was such a blessing. Both Spence and Clarke proved that they could move the puck at 5v5.

Byfield was FINALLY moved to center, and after a month of growing pains, proved that he is an outstanding defensive center and penalty killer.

Laferriere is the Kings Langebrunner. Smart effort, pucks always moving forward to the net.

Turcotte has been a spark everywhere except on the first line.

The Kings had a lot of trouble finding a way to get more than one line going at a time, so the 11/7 blender was engaged and the forwards started focusing on system over linemates. It didn't benefit everyone, but it did reinforce the aggressive system and each players role within it.

The Kuzmenko deal was a masterstroke with results that I don't think we're planned, but worked far better than imagined. The Kings PP has a threat down low for the first time in ages. Kopitar has thrived with a linemate perfect for his game. Foegle's simple approach has hit a stride with Danault and Moore, then Fiala finally found chemistry with a permanent line mate in Byfield.

There are so many positive things happening that realistically the Kings look more like a favorite in Round 1 than red shirt cannon fodder.

 

[Herby]

I don't think it's fair to call Turcotte an offensive black hole. He's a 200 foot forward who is generally on the + side but doesn't often figure on the scoresheet. Stats from Natural Stat Trick:

View attachment 1004205

When Turcotte played on the Kopitar-Kempe line, that line had a very good GF% of 61.5%, producing roughly 3 goals for per 60 minutes but giving up less than 2. Kopitar-Kempe was even better without Turcotte this season with a GF% of 64.6%, so Turcotte wasn't the best winger on that line.

What's interesting is that Turcotte is actually really good when he's not next to Kopitar and Kempe with outstanding CF%, SF%, GF%, and xGF%. He's a good player, but he's not the answer for the top line. He's actually quite good on the fourth line and not an offensive black hole.

I like Turcotte in his current 4th line role, I really do, and maybe using the term "black hole" is unfair, but he was woefully miscast in a scoring line role and his struggles to produce were weighing down on Kopitar and Kempe, and it's not a surprise how much better their production has been since the trade, and it wasn't like they traded for Kaprizov and you can attribute it to that, we all love what Kuz has brought, and I was yelling from the top of the mountain to acquire a player like him, but he isn't some star.

Every season there are huge offensive droughts with him and that make it just hard to count on him as more than a 4th liner until these can be fixed.

18 straight conference games without a goal at Wisconsin
2 over 24 games his first year on the Reign
Currently on a 1 goal in 27 run, many of those playing 1st line with Kopitar and Kempe before the trade.

Most teams have three scoring lines, for a team like the Kings without any 50 goal or 100 point types at the top they really need three lines producing and everyone in the top 9 pulling their weight offensively. As much as people have shit on Moore for alot of this year, he has 17 goals and has missed 10 games. Turcotte is going to have to find a way to produce at a clip similar to Moore (other than Moore's career year) to be an effective third liner in today's game.

I’m an outsider, but wanted to post bland’s post here.

It’s true to be honest, not sure if you guys just don’t engage as much on main boards or if you guys are just underrating your players.


Of course just a generalized assumption here but wanted to share bland’s post and brief thoughts

People have been saying for the previous two years why things would be different than the previous years, from the emergence of younger players, to Todd being fired, the Oilers getting worse etc.

The issue is still that the Kings are 14th out of 16 playoff teams in goals (despite no major injuries to any top 9 forwards), they are very much going to try and grind out 3-2 wins over the Oilers, and that is going to be extremely challenging to do with the Oilers firepower. The Kings are going to have to stay out of the penalty box and completely shutdown the Oilers secondary and depth pieces because 97 and 39 are going to get theirs.

 

[ru4reals]

Yup. It's important to acknowledge there are variables that come in play. Some can't be controlled by the player (e.g. genetic issues affecting how much he grows, unforeseen health risks, external issues with team dynamics). Some can't be controlled by the team (player has immaturity issues, player doesn't exercise along with team plans). And some that can't be attributed to anybody (i.e.the player just isn't good enough at the NHL level no matter how hard he tries). But even then, the onus is on the team to identify risk factors that contribute to this.

Just because there are variables doesn't mean it's a crap shoot.

On another note, Kenny Connors signed his ELC but has a broken foot:

BREAKING NEWS: LA Kings and Connors Agree to Entry-Level Contract

mayorsmanor.com

Kirill Kirsanov's team was also swept in the first round, so I'm curious if and when he'll sign.

Of course he would. LA Kings prospects for ya. *sigh*