I think it's long past time to mix up the top line, specifically to get Kempe some help up there, because it has been hideous for a while now. Kopitar and Turcotte are completely destroying the offensive upside of the Kings' best player, and the results are tough to ignore, as we’ve seen with the lack of goals from that line. The depth guys certainly aren't going to be mistaken for the Triple Crown Line, but the problem starts at the top. This needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.
Since December 1st, Kopitar and Turcotte have played a combined 50 games and have failed to score a goal in 44 of them. Kopitar has four goals, all in two games against the Flyers, but he hasn’t scored against anyone else since November. And again, it’s not like these guys are playing with Trevor Lewis, this is all with Adrian Kempe as the third member of the line. I fear that Kempe and Kopitar are going to become the new Carter/Richards, where the insistence that they must play together ends up dragging Kempe down with a declining player.
The concern with moving Byfield up is that the line might become weaker defensively when facing top scorers, but the bigger issue is how Byfield will perform against top checkers. Teams will be matching against whatever line Kempe is on, not necessarily Kopitar’s. Byfield isn’t exactly lighting it up against lesser matchups, but he also doesn’t have a game-breaking offensive player to help him, aside from the rare occasions when Fiala plays above his potential. At this point, there’s really nothing to lose, other than in the PR department, where they might have to explain moving an iconic player down the lineup. But this has happened plenty of times around the league. Kopitar shouldn't automatically be handed the 1C role until retirement. Ideally, one of the top C picks would have forced him out of that spot by clearly outperforming him, but we aren’t there yet. Unfortunately, we might already be at the point where his offensive decline is undeniable and you have nothing to lose seeing if QB can take off.
I think we all agree that Byfield is the logical choice to replace Kopitar at center. He has improved defensively to the point where he’s probably above average, and Kempe is one of the best defensive wingers in the league. The question is who plays left wing. Is that enough to compensate for having the worst defensive player on the team as the other winger? Would Foegele make sense to add some grit, or is he not really an upgrade over Turcotte in that regard? Moore is another option, but he has been an offensive black hole. Kempe plays better on his off-wing, and Laferriere plays better on his strong side, so Laf probably isn’t an option for LW.
Would a lineup like this make the team more well-rounded?
Fiala - Byfield - Kempe
Turcotte - Kopitar - Laferriere
Foegele - Danault - Moore
At home, the Kings can line-match more easily to limit Byfield’s exposure to players like McDavid and MacKinnon, using Kopitar and Danault against them. On the road, it’s tougher. But for once, defensive concerns need to take a backseat, because the lack of offense has already likely crushed their chances of finishing as the second seed in the Pacific, and now it’s threatening their playoff hopes entirely. What happens if Kuemper gets hurt, wears down or if the same regression to the mean that hit Kopitar and Laferriere affects him too?
Not a fan of trading Spence, especially with how Doughty has looked since returning. Granted, he's still getting back to speed - but trading Spence would be a mistake IMO unless it's part of a larger package to return a true difference maker (Ex: a player like Barzal, Tuch, etc).
It'll never happen but honestly, the smart thing to do is probably give Doughty the rest of this season to see if he returns to form. If he doesn't, it may be time to sit him down in the off-season and discuss options for the future. If the Kings were to trade Doughty at 25% retained this offseason they would likely be able to do so - and could potentially get a half decent return given his cap hit would only be $8.25m with the retention.
That would give them the flexibility to re-shape this blue line and build for the future centered around Spence, Clarke, and Anderson. At that point, they wouldn't have any big contracts on the blue line locked up long term. They could re-sign Gavrikov pretty easily if they chose to go that route - or they could try to sign/acquire a different big-ish name defenseman to fill out the top 4.
Hell, maybe a team like Toronto is looking to make some big changes in the offseason assuming they come up short in the postseason again? What if we saw a Morgan Reilly / Drew Doughty swap? At 25% retained Doughty's cap hit is hardly much larger than Reilly's and that would give the Leafs that minute eating right shot D man they've been looking for for years now. Plus they wouldn't be tied to Reilly long term. I've heard Leafs fans may be souring on Reilly but he's still a good player - maybe just needs a change of scenery to get going again. Obviously super unlikely but just an interesting idea.
Reilly would be a great fit for the Kings right now, and Toronto might be looking to make a drastic move, as you said, if they collapse in the playoffs. The problem is that if the Kings also struggle in the playoffs, it likely signals the end of this team viewing itself as a contender. With Blake's contract expiring, it’s very unlikely he would be brought back after a first-round exit. If the new GM gets approval from Drew to trade him, he would likely focus on recouping draft capital and rebuilding the prospect pool that Blake has mostly depleted over the last few years, rather than bringing in a 31-year-old defenseman making $7.5 million per year until 2030.
If Doughty is traded, it would likely mean a Danault trade follows soon after, Gavrikov walks for a big-money deal from a contender, and Kopitar either retires or approves a trade to a contender for one last shot at a third Cup. A Doughty trade would mark the beginning of a full-scale rebuild, not an attempt to patch holes and contend with a group that isn't capable of winning as currently constructed.
The frustrating part is that it has been obvious for years that this team desperately needed a puck-moving, left-shot defenseman (like Reilly) along with a right-shot goal-scoring forward. You can see this just by looking at discussions on this forum going back five years. Blake never addressed it when given the opportunity. Instead, he traded young players, used significant draft capital, and signed players to big contracts who were left-shot forwards, right-shot defensemen, or stay-at-home defensemen. He even traded a right-shot forward for a left-shot center. While I still believe they needed a center to push Kopitar for any chance at a Hail Mary Cup run, they traded for the wrong one.
The sad reality is that there is solution to fixing the mess Blake created in enough time to contend again with Kopitar and Doughty. The original plan to add a few top picks and plug-and-play stars to the tail-end of Kopitar and Doughty’s careers wasn’t a terrible idea, but it was high-risk if the plan to move forward in the summer of 2021, was set in stone, regardless of how the picks turned out. The problem is they didn’t land franchise players with either pick in 2019 and 2020, and Blake’s inability to accept that and adjust his course led to all the poor decisions since then, as he tried to turn this group into a contender by trading youth and picks to fill the holes he couldn’t at the draft with guys like PLD and Fiala. Accepting this fact, and waiting another 2-3 years to add veterans would have allowed them to see they had a couple of gems in Faber and Vilardi. It also would have given them the opportunity to address the franchise center issue to eventually replace Kopitar with high picks in 2022-2024. It’s truly a tragic what-if for this franchise because, in an ideal scenario, they could have been positioned to come out of this rebuild right now in excellent shape, especially with the cap increasing. Because outside of the inability to draft franchise guys in top-5 they otherwise drafted pretty well. Faber is a 1D, Vilardi is a 1RW, Laf is a 2/3RW Anderson is a 3D, Spence is a 4/5D and all 25 or under.