Speculation: Another year of this Bluc **** (The 2024-25 season thread)

[Raccoon Jesus]

Can you explain what these mean to me like I am 5 years old?

CF% is simply shot attempts percentage--meaning 3/5 of the shots happening with Fiala on the ice were against.

SCF% is the same, but for scoring chances rather than raw shots.

GF% is a little more comprehensive, but is a general--if oversimplified--stat for quality of chances generated while on the ice. In this case, Kev was expected to have 2 goals against to every 1 for.


"In hockey, "expected goals for percentage" (xGF%) refers to a statistic that calculates the proportion of total expected goals a team generates compared to the expected goals against them while a specific player or line is on the ice, essentially showing how much better quality scoring chances a team creates relative to their opponents when that player is playing; a percentage above 50% indicates a team is generating more high-quality scoring opportunities than their opponent."


For Fiala to be worst on the team in all of the above while getting the most preferential deployment is actually a worse waste of minutes than PLD last year. The opportunity cost of deploying a liability who isn't scoring hurts the team.

Edit: funny enough with this year's preferential deployment his shot attempt stats are better but of course with his dogshit defense and reckless play his ACTUAL goals for/goals against is outright disgusting. He's at 43.59 GF%--with 17 goals for and 22 against. Next worst regular forward is Moore--at a great 54.84%.

 

[Lt Dan]

CF% is simply shot attempts percentage--meaning 3/5 of the shots happening with Fiala on the ice were against.

SCF% is the same, but for scoring chances rather than raw shots.

GF% is a little more comprehensive, but is a general--if oversimplified--stat for quality of chances generated while on the ice. In this case, Kev was expected to have 2 goals against to every 1 for.


"In hockey, "expected goals for percentage" (xGF%) refers to a statistic that calculates the proportion of total expected goals a team generates compared to the expected goals against them while a specific player or line is on the ice, essentially showing how much better quality scoring chances a team creates relative to their opponents when that player is playing; a percentage above 50% indicates a team is generating more high-quality scoring opportunities than their opponent."


For Fiala to be worst on the team in all of the above while getting the most preferential deployment is actually a worse waste of minutes than PLD last year. The opportunity cost of deploying a liability who isn't scoring hurts the team.

So with these metrics is it a "higher the number, the better" situation

where should they be? in the 80s?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So with these metrics is it a "higher the number, the better" situation

View attachment 959084

where should they be? in the 80s?

You would want them to be 50% to show you're consistently bettering the opposition.

55% over time is the top of the league.

60%+ is astounding. Prime Drew Doughty #s.

But of course this is all relative to team, and that's a different discussion altogether. That he puts up such dogshit #s on a team who is in the higher 50s makes it more appalling especially with the insulation.

 

[Lt Dan]

You would want them to be 50% to show you're consistently bettering the opposition.

55% over time is the top of the league.

60%+ is astounding. Prime Drew Doughty #s.

But of course this is all relative to team, and that's a different discussion altogether. That he puts up such dogshit #s on a team who is in the higher 50s makes it more appalling especially with the insulation.

Thank you for the explanation.

If I am understanding this right in musical terms, instead of listening to jazz, Fiala should be listening to Doo-Wop, Crooners and the best case scenario he would be listening to Bob Dylan or Zeppelin?

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

Kevin Fiala in that series was a 39% CF%, 38% SCF%, and a 33% xGF%.

Fiala IS AN ISSUE. He has always been an issue in the playoffs across now several teams. It's just now also manifesting in the regular season.

I'm sorry but I'm sick of people burying their heads firmly in their asses about this. It's visible AND it shows up in stats. What more will it take to at least make you guys say "huh, that is bad" rather than "Lol no problems?"

I try to give everyone here the benefit of the doubt but it seems some people are hypnotized by his razzle-dazzle and ignore the substance.

I have concerns with Fiala in the playoffs too.

More-so became annoyed with the condescending tone of the original reply and lack of actual argument presented. In these discussions, you always present an actual argument with actual evidence to support your argument - So I'm always down to talk even if we don't fully agree on something. Other posters seem to default to replying with a smart ass, know-it-all tone and little to no evidence - Which can be pretty frustrating.

Now you've presented some evidence to suggest that while yes in terms of point totals Fiala's production was great that playoff series - the underlying metrics seem to suggest that doesn't paint the full picture. So now I'm more willing to admit 'yeah, maybe Fiala was part of the problem despite the point production'.

We really need him to figure it out - both for the 2nd half of this season and the playoffs moving forward because trading him seems like a pipe dream.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I have concerns with Fiala in the playoffs too.

More-so became annoyed with the condescending tone of the original reply and lack of actual argument presented. In these discussions, you always present an actual argument with actual evidence to support your argument - So I'm always down to talk even if we don't fully agree on something. Other posters seem to default to replying with a smart ass, know-it-all tone and little to no evidence - Which can be pretty frustrating.

Now you've presented some evidence to suggest that while yes in terms of point totals Fiala's production was great that playoff series - the underlying metrics seem to suggest that doesn't paint the full picture. So now I'm more willing to admit 'yeah, maybe Fiala was part of the problem despite the point production'.

We really need him to figure it out - both for the 2nd half of this season and the playoffs moving forward because trading him seems like a pipe dream.

and to be fair--he was also hurt

but the problem is it's right in line with the rest of his playoff performances

@bland hates fancy stats but his observations nail it, he's usually good for a bunch of empty calories points, a high event guy that does enough scoring to cover his ass (like I always say, a forward erik karlsson)...but this year he's not doing that. So all the warts are on display and people are justifiably pissed because he's supposed to be our difference maker, not PLD 2.0.

Thank you for the explanation.

If I am understanding this right in musical terms, instead of listening to jazz, Fiala should be listening to Doo-Wop, Crooners and the best case scenario he would be listening to Bob Dylan or Zeppelin?

Usually he listens to 311 but dances like it's dubstep...this year he's not even listening to music and still freaking out. We need him to listen to Zeppelin and dance to the beat.

 

[Omni Owl]

Thank you for the explanation.

If I am understanding this right in musical terms, instead of listening to jazz, Fiala should be listening to Doo-Wop, Crooners and the best case scenario he would be listening to Bob Dylan or Zeppelin?

Fiala ought to be listening to kraut rock like Can, Cluster, or Neu!, it would get him in a nice consistent flow mentality.

 

[Bandit]

Can you explain what these mean to me like I am 5 years old?

It means he poops in his pants instead of in the toilet.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

I have concerns with Fiala in the playoffs too.

More-so became annoyed with the condescending tone of the original reply and lack of actual argument presented. In these discussions, you always present an actual argument with actual evidence to support your argument - So I'm always down to talk even if we don't fully agree on something. Other posters seem to default to replying with a smart ass, know-it-all tone and little to no evidence - Which can be pretty frustrating.

Now you've presented some evidence to suggest that while yes in terms of point totals Fiala's production was great that playoff series - the underlying metrics seem to suggest that doesn't paint the full picture. So now I'm more willing to admit 'yeah, maybe Fiala was part of the problem despite the point production'.

We really need him to figure it out - both for the 2nd half of this season and the playoffs moving forward because trading him seems like a pipe dream.

Maybe I don't know what I'm looking at, but these are the corsi stats I found for Fiala during the playoffs:

 

[Lt Dan]

Fancy stats aside my biggest problem is that he historically isn't playing a team game. He has tunnel vision of trying to make a play work and doesn't anticipate or seemingly doesn't care about the disaster he creates when these super high risk plays don't work out.

I used to use this story for PLD , but I was on a rare vacation last year when we played the Canes on the road and Sir Justin Williams was being inducted in to their ring of honor/ team HOF. I was listening to the iheart broadcast and someone was talking about how Lombardi classified players.
Williams was classified as a "winner". The closest guy we have to that right now , in my legless opinion is Kempe.

With Fiala
Adolph Hiller has done a much better job than the koala of keeping the "freak on a leash" and the optimist prime in me is hoping that something clicks and Fiala starts to ask himself "what would Justin Williams do?
Fiala needs a tatoo on his hand of WWJWD?

 

[bland]

Without additional context that’s some anti-vaxxer level of correlation = causation arguments.

I’m just saying, I don’t remember my view at the time but in general I felt there were far bigger issues than Fiala in that series even though he wasn’t 100% when he played.

If it were an outlier then it would be debatable. But it it wasn't, and it isn't.

In three playoff series against Edmonton, the Kings are 6-5 in games without Fiala, 1-7 with him.

Its not a coincidence. The game in which Fiala came back and got 3 points but lost was the turning point in that series. Let's discuss why.

Edmonton's entire plan is to outscore you. They want you to open up, they want open lanes, they want to exploit spacing so two of the most talented players in modern history can ply their trade.

The Kings only real chance at success depends upon limiting chances, controlling pace, keeping the game in a grind that controls the gaps Edmonton looks to exploit.

Its uncommon to score goals against the run of play, but it happens. It is extremely rare to win a game against the run of play, but it does happen. What does not happen is winning a series against the run of play. Sure, more "talented" teams have lost series, but hockey - at least it use to be - is the great leveler where team play can beat skill. But no team ever wins 4 games out 7 against the run of play.

Enter Fiala. There is no King in memory, sans Athanasiou, that plays such a risky style. It's his positioning. I have pounding my hands into this keyboard for three years now imploring stat heads to look at where Fiala sets himself up without the puck. His spacing is awful, it requires risky passed with low rewards. It creates epic amounts of quick fire counterattack opportunities and you cannot have that against the Oilers.

And here is why I call it video game thinking. Gsmes don't stop and start after every shift. Momentum means more in hockey than most sports. When Fiala is on the ice, the Kings lose momentum more than any player in memory. Its not unlike playing against a goalie who is known.to let in the occasional softy - you know that no matter how badly you are outplayed, you WILL get your chances and i inspires you to keep going.

The opponent is never out of the game when Fiala is on the ice. You WILL get high danger chances against, even when Fiala is producing. His offense at its best is a wash, but when he isn't scoring he is a tremendous liability. Against Edmonton? Forget it, any crack can turn into a chasm in a split second.

 

[King'sPawn]

Kevin Fiala in that series was a 39% CF%, 38% SCF%, and a 33% xGF%.

Fiala IS AN ISSUE. He has always been an issue in the playoffs across now several teams. It's just now also manifesting in the regular season.

I'm sorry but I'm sick of people burying their heads firmly in their asses about this. It's visible AND it shows up in stats. What more will it take to at least make you guys say "huh, that is bad" rather than "Lol no problems?" Why the hell is the bar for this guy set so low? We need him to be one of our best players, a true positive difference maker, not just 'not bad', especially given they've coddled him every god damn which way to no effect (except a bad PP and ever dwindling even strength play).

I try to give everyone here the benefit of the doubt but it seems some people are hypnotized by his razzle-dazzle and ignore the substance.

I think there's a happy medium at play as far as arguments. By focusing on Fiala and providing no other depth in the discussion or posts, it implies that he alone is the reason the Kings lost. Very similarly, people posting he scored 2 points per game in the series suggests he should be absolved. So people try to add context and layers instead of just nodding mindlessly.

I don't like the play on the ice, but Fiala has a dynamism to his game that, when channeled correctly, can at least make him a force. And I think the Kings need to determine sooner rather than later if the juice is worth the squeeze.

Frankly, I am ready to move on from him. But I also think more needs to be said than "Kings were 0-3 with him." So, I appreciate the attempts to add to the conversation.

I type this knowing damn well you have your head buried up your ass and won't see it, but holy shit there's more to the game than advanced stats.

Now, Fiala has not been good this year, he's had flashes of it, he's had some holy shit how did he do that moves, but by and large, he hasn't been good, and yet, he's still just a shade below a PPG for his Kings career.

So either we want players like that, and hmmm...Kaliyev......to be able to play their game....or we don't, but people like you want it both ways.....

Fiala is not the problem, simple as that.

We want players to get an opportunity to play their game so they can incorporate their skills into the Kings paradigm.

Fiala, a purely offensive player, gets the most powerplay minutes and among the highest deployments in the offensive zone. He is getting that opportunity and isn't fitting. And I don't think he's making the linemates better. That's just my opinion.

People don't want carte blanche. They want reasonable opportunity. And if they're a net positive, they want them to stay.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I think there's a happy medium at play as far as arguments. By focusing on Fiala and providing no other depth in the discussion or posts, it implies that he alone is the reason the Kings lost. Very similarly, people posting he scored 2 points per game in the series suggests he should be absolved. So people try to add context and layers instead of just nodding mindlessly.

I don't like the play on the ice, but Fiala has a dynamism to his game that, when channeled correctly, can at least make him a force. And I think the Kings need to determine sooner rather than later if the juice is worth the squeeze.

Frankly, I am ready to move on from him. But I also think more needs to be said than "Kings were 0-3 with him." So, I appreciate the attempts to add to the conversation.

We want players to get an opportunity to play their game so they can incorporate their skills into the Kings paradigm.

Fiala, a purely offensive player, gets the most powerplay minutes and among the highest deployments in the offensive zone. He is getting that opportunity and isn't fitting. And I don't think he's making the linemates better. That's just my opinion.

People don't want carte blanche. They want reasonable opportunity. And if they're a net positive, they want them to stay.

He's 100% having an off year this year.....something isn't clicking, and again, he's still a hair shy of a PPG during his career here, I'm ok with letting him figure it out.

I do agree Kings need to decide sooner/later to keep him or not,

 

[King'sPawn]

He's 100% having an off year this year.....something isn't clicking, and again, he's still a hair shy of a PPG during his career here, I'm ok with letting him figure it out.

I do agree Kings need to decide sooner/later to keep him or not,

He's having an off year offensively. But even when he was putting up points, it's arguable if it balances out the drawbacks, given the frequency.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Pretty sure, Fiala was Blake's best trade.

Edit: Moore maybe if he wasn't having a crap year. Gavrikov if he re-signs at a reasonable rate. Yup, Fiala is best trade so far.

 

[Lt Dan]

Pretty sure, Fiala was Blake's best trade.

Edit: Moore maybe if he wasn't having a crap year. Gavrikov if he re-signs at a reasonable rate. Yup, Fiala is best trade so far.

No way in hell.

History of hockey trades by general manager Rob Blake - NHL Trade Tracker

It's easily this trade, especially since (I think) that 3rd rounder became Alex Laferriere

 

[Omni Owl]

Pretty sure, Fiala was Blake's best trade.

 

[FSL KINGS]

I didn't say it was a good trade.
Just his best trade.


Edit: Assuming Fiala waives his NMC, what would his value be? Who should the King's target?

 

[Bandit]

I didn't say it was a good trade.
Just his best trade.


Edit: Assuming Fiala waives his NMC, what would his value be? Who should the King's target?

Brock Faber and Gabe Vilardi.

 

[shuchukfan]

Fiala ought to be listening to kraut rock like Can, Cluster, or Neu!, it would get him in a nice consistent flow mentality.

Neu!