It does and doesn't work that way.
Yes you can point to past success, but year to year teams have turnover that eventually either helps or deters them.
The Leafs are a completely different team outside their so called core.
Unless you firmly believe the core is the problem, it is ridiculous to say they will either win or lose.
Giving the benefit of the doubt to Tampa is equally as ridiculous as they are no longer nearly the team they were. They do however still have Vasi who can steal any series.
Judging a team by any one game, or henpecking a dozen to judge whether they are good or bad during the regular season is foolhardy and can't be taken seriously.
They have no better chance of winning the cup based on if thwy won last night or got smoked.
If they had won 7-2, it would have not changed your mind.