Axl Rhoadz
Binky distributor
- Apr 5, 2011
- 5,343
- 3,959
another great article from the Athletic...
- Thread starter Axl Rhoadz
- Start date
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KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
- 11,767
But, but...the season starts in and odd-numbered year and we know Kopitar shows up for seasons starting in odd-numbered years. Doughty can't possibly be as lazy as he appears to be, and surely the Bluc will find him a competent partner before the season starts. Carter at age 32 will have recovered from his injury and get two steps back. Toffoli is in a contract year so he will decide to actually try at practice. Kupari at age 19 is going to be playing on the first line by the middle of the season and put up 40 points. Then there is Kovalchuk, even though he is getting old he still can shoot it. Unfortunately, Kovalchuk can't find his own zone without a map and a compass.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
- 21,478
- 18,922
I don't think the Kings will be the worst team in the NHL. I think they'll finish closer to 20th than 31st.
The predictive model used in this article is heavily influenced by last year's results.
I wish there was some way to account for coaching. I bet Vegas, NYI and Edmonton all finish significantly better than this model predicts because of their coaches.
The predictive model used in this article is heavily influenced by last year's results.
I wish there was some way to account for coaching. I bet Vegas, NYI and Edmonton all finish significantly better than this model predicts because of their coaches.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
I didn't realize Willie Desjardins was returning behind the bench.
King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
- Jul 1, 2003
- 23,190
- 24,101
Unfortunately the misuse of analytics will lead to people dismissing them when they do properly get applied.
I think we can expect bounce backs from at least 3 of 5 of Kopitar, Toffoli, Quick, Doughty and Kovalchuk. Maybe even through Carter having a better season in there. So this scares me as I think it will push LA not into the playoffs but high enough to miss out on the best draft odds.
I can definitely see taht especially if we manage to move out some veterans by the TDL..
With that said, I full expect a huge rebound from at least Kopiatr, Carter, Toffoli and Martinez.. and if health permits then from Quick..
The real questions are, will any of our kids in Ontario and Porks step up to become something..dependale/reliable(Dman), Offensive(Porks..etc) we have a pipeline with guys that have loads of talent. The question is can they force themselves up by midseason.. if that happens, I give a rats ass about point total! it means our rebuild has taken an accelerated path and thats always good..
With that said, I full expect a huge rebound from at least Kopiatr, Carter, Toffoli and Martinez.. and if health permits then from Quick..
The real questions are, will any of our kids in Ontario and Porks step up to become something..dependale/reliable(Dman), Offensive(Porks..etc) we have a pipeline with guys that have loads of talent. The question is can they force themselves up by midseason.. if that happens, I give a rats ass about point total! it means our rebuild has taken an accelerated path and thats always good..
"The Brown Hole"
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
They also forget about the Dion Phaneuf factor. He would have guaranteed -60 points in the standings.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
- 19,537
- 7,615
They're not going to get only 58 points. It's very likely they'll be a complete chore to watch again, but those projections clearly don't take the winner points into account. It has only 4 teams breaking 100. More than double that has broken 100 the last however many years, every year. I don't know exactly what I'm looking for, but I couldn't find the WAR stats they were using from the link they provided. I would like to see it if anyone has it. For the life of me, I could not find it. Now it's like a song that you're trying to look up, and you sort of remember one line from it, but not the title, and it bothers you all day. I saw goals above replacement, which is equally horrific for this bunch, but not the other one. Was that the same thing?
Why is it funny though? We know they're going to suck, whatever the point total ends up being. We want them to suck. They know they're going to suck. The players know they're not a good team. A roster full of players doesn't quit in training camp if they have any notions of being competitive. Vegas beat that will out of them a year and half ago. I thought the whole point was to tank? I don't know why someone predicting the Kings to be bad seems to be considered an insult to the team? Is there anyone left with any illusions about this roster making noise? Even Robitaille and Blake aren't trying to sell that anymore.
If they only got 58 points, with the OT winner points, that would be far worse than last year, and last year they didn't even care. It would actually be quite an accomplishment to finish with 58 points in the current NHL. Only 4 teams have done that in the last decade, two of them Buffalo.
Why is it funny though? We know they're going to suck, whatever the point total ends up being. We want them to suck. They know they're going to suck. The players know they're not a good team. A roster full of players doesn't quit in training camp if they have any notions of being competitive. Vegas beat that will out of them a year and half ago. I thought the whole point was to tank? I don't know why someone predicting the Kings to be bad seems to be considered an insult to the team? Is there anyone left with any illusions about this roster making noise? Even Robitaille and Blake aren't trying to sell that anymore.
If they only got 58 points, with the OT winner points, that would be far worse than last year, and last year they didn't even care. It would actually be quite an accomplishment to finish with 58 points in the current NHL. Only 4 teams have done that in the last decade, two of them Buffalo.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
- 21,478
- 18,922
We can't blame Willie D too much. They were bad before he was hired.
I think the forward group is okay. But our defense looks BAD.
It's possible for the Kings to be competitive, but in order to do so they'll need to get back to playing tight structured team defense to make up for their lack of depth on the back end. And they'll need good goaltending as well obviously.
I think the forward group is okay. But our defense looks BAD.
It's possible for the Kings to be competitive, but in order to do so they'll need to get back to playing tight structured team defense to make up for their lack of depth on the back end. And they'll need good goaltending as well obviously.
Wait, so the Kings are predicted to finish with 6 less points than the Senators had last year? That would be the worst record since the 2016-17 Avs abomination of a season. I highly doubt the Kings have fallen that far, hell even last years mess of a team got to 71 points.
Was this prediction done using some sort of flawed model developed by Dom?
Was this prediction done using some sort of flawed model developed by Dom?
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
The defense improved dramatically with Dion Phaneuf removed from the roster. His dumb ass alone contributed to many goals against.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
- 21,478
- 18,922
Part of Phaneuf's problem was just lack of effort and being burned out. No motivation.
I like that MacDermid, LaDue, Roy and Walker are all prime ages (24-26), have ample pro experience (including NHL experience), and should all be hungry to establish themselves in the NHL. They should be primed and ready to play some decent hockey for us.
Hopefully we get a surprise in camp and a dman we're not expecting makes the team. I hope it's Brickley. He gets a pass from me for his play last year after what he went through off the ice.
Like I said, you play some good structured team D, get some good goaltending, and hope your young Dmen put in a strong effort and the team may turn out to be more competitive than we expect.
I certainly wouldn't bet on them making a playoff push, but it's not impossible. The NHL is crazy. There's tons of variance year to year.
I like that MacDermid, LaDue, Roy and Walker are all prime ages (24-26), have ample pro experience (including NHL experience), and should all be hungry to establish themselves in the NHL. They should be primed and ready to play some decent hockey for us.
Hopefully we get a surprise in camp and a dman we're not expecting makes the team. I hope it's Brickley. He gets a pass from me for his play last year after what he went through off the ice.
Like I said, you play some good structured team D, get some good goaltending, and hope your young Dmen put in a strong effort and the team may turn out to be more competitive than we expect.
I certainly wouldn't bet on them making a playoff push, but it's not impossible. The NHL is crazy. There's tons of variance year to year.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
58 points seems very very low, but the defense is going to be so bad it's going to take Kopitar, Doughty and Quick to have seasons like they had in 2018 for the team to even sniff playoff contention, and that is ok. The Kings have greatly improved their farm system since Blake took over but are still missing the elite high end scorer in the pipeline. The 2020 draft is loaded with goal-scoring wingers and getting a top 5 pick is better than being on the fringes of the WC chase.
Axl Rhoadz
Binky distributor
- Apr 5, 2011
- 5,343
- 3,959
The Kings are going to be a very bad team this year. They may not be the worst, but they will finish in the bottom 5 again. The Front Office knew this and that's why they sat on their hands and did nothing in the offseason but stay the course.
You can see the clear gap in teams.
bouncesonly
Registered User
If we got rid of Forbort, the defense would be 3.6 Roentgen:
The forwards on the other hand.....anticipating much of the same as last year. I don't see Toffoli bouncing back. Kopitar might have a slight uptick. Brown shouldn't be that worse off. Kovalchuk....getting older and slower, even if he can still shoot. I'm betting Carter is done. Grundstrom might be the only bright spot? Possibly Wagner?
My optimistic take....Quick goes lights out cause he knows this Kings core is done. Gets traded at the deadline and wins another Stanley Cup.
The forwards on the other hand.....anticipating much of the same as last year. I don't see Toffoli bouncing back. Kopitar might have a slight uptick. Brown shouldn't be that worse off. Kovalchuk....getting older and slower, even if he can still shoot. I'm betting Carter is done. Grundstrom might be the only bright spot? Possibly Wagner?
My optimistic take....Quick goes lights out cause he knows this Kings core is done. Gets traded at the deadline and wins another Stanley Cup.
bland
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2004
- 8,244
- 12,608
If you break the forwards into three groups depending on likely roles:
I see an old, below average group of top 6 forwards who may see an upswing from 18-19 production due to a new coach who will be given at least cursory respect.
I see an underperforming middle 6 with a very mismatched collection of talents that has yet to find any kind of chemistry, and hasn't changed at all since a very bad year.
I see a hardworking group of respected and respectful bottom 6 forwards. This, sadly, is the current strength of the roster, and these types of players rarely receive the praise they deserve on bad teams. Quality role players are largely wasted on teams with poor primary and secondary scoring.
Defensively, this is probably the worst unit in the league and hopefully will see fresh faces get worked in and out the lineup all year. The worst thing MacLellan could do would be to ride his defense as though they are chasing the playoffs. This must be a year of change for this group, as the placeholders have proven to be less than NHL playoff caliber.
Goaltending could be a strength, but will likely be put rough spots.
The power play will continue to be a major weakness, but the penalty kill should be improved under a disciplined coach.
I see the Kings hanging around thru February before dropping out of the playoff picture, finishing in the bottom 7-8 of the league at years end.
I see an old, below average group of top 6 forwards who may see an upswing from 18-19 production due to a new coach who will be given at least cursory respect.
I see an underperforming middle 6 with a very mismatched collection of talents that has yet to find any kind of chemistry, and hasn't changed at all since a very bad year.
I see a hardworking group of respected and respectful bottom 6 forwards. This, sadly, is the current strength of the roster, and these types of players rarely receive the praise they deserve on bad teams. Quality role players are largely wasted on teams with poor primary and secondary scoring.
Defensively, this is probably the worst unit in the league and hopefully will see fresh faces get worked in and out the lineup all year. The worst thing MacLellan could do would be to ride his defense as though they are chasing the playoffs. This must be a year of change for this group, as the placeholders have proven to be less than NHL playoff caliber.
Goaltending could be a strength, but will likely be put rough spots.
The power play will continue to be a major weakness, but the penalty kill should be improved under a disciplined coach.
I see the Kings hanging around thru February before dropping out of the playoff picture, finishing in the bottom 7-8 of the league at years end.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
2017-18
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]+36
2018-19
[TBODY]
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There were no real massive changes in those lineups. I really don't believe that losing Pearson and Muzzin hurt us THAT much.
Quick is going to be one of the biggest wildcards.
This guy nailed it
I totally agree with this
I am guessing we will finish in the Mid 80's point wise and miss the playoffs. It will be better than last year, but not good enough
| 82 | 45 | 29 | 8 | 98 | 43 | 239 | 203 |
2018-19
| 82 | 31 | 42 | 9 | 71 | 28 | 202 | 263 | -61 |
There were no real massive changes in those lineups. I really don't believe that losing Pearson and Muzzin hurt us THAT much.
Quick is going to be one of the biggest wildcards.
This guy nailed it
I totally agree with this
I am guessing we will finish in the Mid 80's point wise and miss the playoffs. It will be better than last year, but not good enough
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DoktorJeep
Luc and Rob are a waste of time and money.
The only sane plan to improve next season is to spread the minutes out better. You can’t have Kopitar, Doughty, and Brown getting 20+ minutes a night consistently. Toddy Mac needs to find a way to get those guys taking shorter shifts and making them play with youth without a locker room revolt.
People expecting this team to make a large point jump are going to most likely be disappointed. This team is in a large transition mode and it's going to be awhile before they are relevant again. It's going to be up and down but they will finish in the bottom 5 again.
They are stuck in a group with ANA, EDM, DET and OTT. Some other teams could slip but the Kings did nothing to improve their team at all in the offseason. They have several players who play regular shifts that are moving into the wrong side of 30 and the kids are still developing.
It's possible that Quick(33), Carter(34), Kovy(36), Brown(34), Kopitar(31), Martinez(32) and Lewis(32) can carry this team but that's a group of players who have logged a lot of miles and they looked like it last year. Injuries are going to be a big part as well since older players get hurt, a lot.
I am just hopeful that the organization gives the younger guys more minutes in key spots so they can continue to develop. There is a reason that the Kings didn't go out and get some veterans to fill spots and move guys this offseason or at the draft. They are expecting to be bad again and are just working through it right now. Another top 5 draft pick and moving AMart, Toffoli and hopefully Quick for assets is a better plan than shuffling around. If they can have another solid draft then things are going to start trending back up once they can shed some contracts.
They are stuck in a group with ANA, EDM, DET and OTT. Some other teams could slip but the Kings did nothing to improve their team at all in the offseason. They have several players who play regular shifts that are moving into the wrong side of 30 and the kids are still developing.
It's possible that Quick(33), Carter(34), Kovy(36), Brown(34), Kopitar(31), Martinez(32) and Lewis(32) can carry this team but that's a group of players who have logged a lot of miles and they looked like it last year. Injuries are going to be a big part as well since older players get hurt, a lot.
I am just hopeful that the organization gives the younger guys more minutes in key spots so they can continue to develop. There is a reason that the Kings didn't go out and get some veterans to fill spots and move guys this offseason or at the draft. They are expecting to be bad again and are just working through it right now. Another top 5 draft pick and moving AMart, Toffoli and hopefully Quick for assets is a better plan than shuffling around. If they can have another solid draft then things are going to start trending back up once they can shed some contracts.
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Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
You have people saying that they could be a playoff team or be right there. That's not going to happen. They will have to jump several teams to get there and they don't have the horses to do that anymore. Every year, guys like Carter get older and he isn't a workout warrior either. Players like Justin Williams are rare in that they keep it up as they age. Hockey destroys bodies as they age. For the Kings to make any jump, they will need big seasons from several older players. That's asking a lot.
