Speculation: Andersen in Vezina Convo?

[BertCorbeau]

He is in the conversation for sure but still on the outside looking in IMO.

I think it's a two horse race between Vasilevskiy and Rask right now (Rask's #'s since the end of November have been ridiculous)

Rinne and Hellebuyck are a step below but I would also add Andersen to that list as well. I'm not sure how much stock they put into advanced goalie stats when selecting a winner.

Vase and/or Rask would have to slip a bit down the stretch for Andy to really have a good shot at it.

Interesting that the top 3 Vezina candidates could be out of the Atlantic, and not one of them is Price.

If the season were to end today it would be Vase .. But if Boston keeps up their run with Rask playing like this, overtaking the Lightning in the division it will be Rask.

 

[Morgs]

GSAA (all situations) to me is the all encompassing Vezina stat due to workload + ability to keep up literally "above average" play throughout a season. It has to be all situations though, because it's not like GAA or sv% take a rest on the PK. right now my voting on the Vezina would be:

1. Andersen
2. Gibson
3. Rinne
4. Hutton
5. Bobrovsky

GSAA/30 and dSv% are better for figuring out who actually are the best goalies in the league (and especially if a backup can handle a starting role).

(Over 1000 minutes) the best goalies this season when in net:

1. Hutton
2. Crawford
3. Khudobin
4. Fleury
5. Rinne
6. Gibson
7. Andersen

It's too bad they still use GAA (which is useless) and sv% which doesn't tell the whole story.

 

[zeke]

The high amount of shots faced only help his SV% if he stops them though.

it's true, but in the leafs' case in particular remember that they actually are middle of the pack when it comes to high danger chances against, but give up the most low danger chances, so the high volume of shots freddy faces specifically probably helps him more than hurts him.

 

[justafan22]

He might get a vote or two. But his october will keep him from winning it unless he has a fantastic end to the season.

 

[zeke]

last 10 Vezina winners

Bobrovsky .931
Holtby .922
Price .933
Rask .930
Bobrovsky .932
Lundqvist .930
Thomas .938
Miller .929
Thomas .933
Brodeur .920
Brodeur .922

Since the generous legacy wins given to brodeur, the league voters have figured out that save percentage is the key. the winner has rightly gone to a guy with a .929+ sv%.

the one exception is Holtby winning with a .922, same as Andy this year. In that season, there were no .929+ starting goals, and Holtby unfortunately won due mostly to his win totals. Bishop should have won with his .926sv%, but at least voters saw .922 close enough to .o26 that they could look at other things, like wins.

This year, though, not only is vasilevsky posting a .929, but even if that gaps shrinks, vasilevsky still wins on all the other factors, like win-loss record.

Fact is that Andy's .922 is just not a serious vezina number, unless he has all the other numbers in his favour AND no other goalie posts a standout sv%.

 

[Gary Nylund]

last 10 Vezina winners

Bobrovsky .931
Holtby .922
Price .933
Rask .930
Bobrovsky .932
Lundqvist .930
Thomas .938
Miller .929
Thomas .933
Brodeur .920
Brodeur .922

Since the generous legacy wins given to brodeur, the league voters have figured out that save percentage is the key. the winner has rightly gone to a guy with a .929+ sv%.

the one exception is Holtby winning with a .922, same as Andy this year. In that season, there were no .929+ starting goals, and Holtby unfortunately won due mostly to his win totals. Bishop should have won with his .926sv%, but at least voters saw .922 close enough to .o26 that they could look at other things, like wins.

This year, though, not only is vasilevsky posting a .929, but even if that gaps shrinks, vasilevsky still wins on all the other factors, like win-loss record.

Fact is that Andy's .922 is just not a serious vezina number, unless he has all the other numbers in his favour AND no other goalie posts a standout sv%.

Seems spot on to me. Andersen is awesome but no Vezina for him, not this year.

 

[Buds17]

it's true, but in the leafs' case in particular remember that they actually are middle of the pack when it comes to high danger chances against, but give up the most low danger chances, so the high volume of shots freddy faces specifically probably helps him more than hurts him.

Would have to see how much of a correlation there is between number of goals allowed for each type of shot (high/low danger) for Andersen and other goalies that figure to be in serious enough contention, though that's one of many factors to judge the candidates on. I agree though that since Vas is leading the league in enough of the pertinent stats, that's essentially Vezina worthy as things currently stand.

 

[darrylsittler27]

In the year of the Goalie, I vote for the one that wins the cup. MVP for Tor? Need I say it? I seriously wonder where this team would be right now if he had been injured.

 

[hoglund]

Right now he should be in the conversation, it depends on his last 2o starts. If he has a good March, then he will likely win, but it's a bit early to discus that.

 

[Once]

Should definitely be a nominee. He's well on his way to being a top 5 goalie.

 

[Morgs]

last 10 Vezina winners

Bobrovsky .931
Holtby .922
Price .933
Rask .930
Bobrovsky .932
Lundqvist .930
Thomas .938
Miller .929
Thomas .933
Brodeur .920
Brodeur .922

Since the generous legacy wins given to brodeur, the league voters have figured out that save percentage is the key. the winner has rightly gone to a guy with a .929+ sv%.

the one exception is Holtby winning with a .922, same as Andy this year. In that season, there were no .929+ starting goals, and Holtby unfortunately won due mostly to his win totals. Bishop should have won with his .926sv%, but at least voters saw .922 close enough to .o26 that they could look at other things, like wins.

This year, though, not only is vasilevsky posting a .929, but even if that gaps shrinks, vasilevsky still wins on all the other factors, like win-loss record.

Fact is that Andy's .922 is just not a serious vezina number, unless he has all the other numbers in his favour AND no other goalie posts a standout sv%.

Maybe one day the people voting for these awards will try to look at the full-picture.

 

[rent free]

GSAA (all situations) to me is the all encompassing Vezina stat due to workload + ability to keep up literally "above average" play throughout a season. It has to be all situations though, because it's not like GAA or sv% take a rest on the PK. right now my voting on the Vezina would be:

1. Andersen
2. Gibson
3. Rinne
4. Hutton
5. Bobrovsky

GSAA/30 and dSv% are better for figuring out who actually are the best goalies in the league (and especially if a backup can handle a starting role).

(Over 1000 minutes) the best goalies this season when in net:

1. Hutton
2. Crawford
3. Khudobin
4. Fleury
5. Rinne
6. Gibson
7. Andersen

It's too bad they still use GAA (which is useless) and sv% which doesn't tell the whole story.

how is gaa useless?

 

[zeke]

Maybe one day the people voting for these awards will try to look at the full-picture.

they do a pretty good job of it. They won't vote for a guy with a great save percentage if he hasn't had a full starter's workload, for example.

 

[Mr Hockey]

how is gaa useless?

I am pretty sure I said i dont believe in any kind of hockey "war" stats.

GSAA = Goals Saved Above Average

 

[Stephen]

Plenty of season left for Andersen to make a serious case. Vasilevskiy is falling back to earth with Tampa Bay. And Boston can't stay hot forever.

 

[rent free]

I am pretty sure I said i dont believe in any kind of hockey "war" stats.

GSAA = Goals Saved Above Average

you said: It's too bad they still use GAA (which is useless), which is not true

 

[Mr Hockey]

you said: It's too bad they still use GAA (which is useless), which is not true

quote where I said that?

 

[rent free]

quote where I said that?

sure. my pleasure:

GSAA (all situations) to me is the all encompassing Vezina stat due to workload + ability to keep up literally "above average" play throughout a season. It has to be all situations though, because it's not like GAA or sv% take a rest on the PK. right now my voting on the Vezina would be:

1. Andersen
2. Gibson
3. Rinne
4. Hutton
5. Bobrovsky

GSAA/30 and dSv% are better for figuring out who actually are the best goalies in the league (and especially if a backup can handle a starting role).

(Over 1000 minutes) the best goalies this season when in net:

1. Hutton
2. Crawford
3. Khudobin
4. Fleury
5. Rinne
6. Gibson
7. Andersen

It's too bad they still use GAA (which is useless) and sv% which doesn't tell the whole story.

 

[Mr Hockey]

sure. my pleasure:



It's too bad they still use GAA (which is useless) and sv% which doesn't tell the whole story.

ok, sorry i thought your initial post was directed at me

 

[Morgs]

how is gaa useless?

GAA is like +/- with a glove and blocker. All it does is tell you how many goals they let in per 60 minutes. Not even a quarter of the story.

 

[Cor]

He may get a nomination, but the Vezina is Vasilevsky's to lose.

 

[rent free]

Plenty of season left for Andersen to make a serious case. Vasilevskiy is falling back to earth with Tampa Bay. And Boston can't stay hot forever.

andersen has to play outta his mind to be in the consideration. if he continues to play like this no chance does he get recognition

 

[rent free]

GAA is like +/- with a glove and blocker. All it does is tell you how many goals they let in per 60 minutes. Not even a quarter of the story.

how is it useless though? it shows how consistent a goalie is in terms of giving up goals/60. thats very important.

 

[Morgs]

they do a pretty good job of it. They won't vote for a guy with a great save percentage if he hasn't had a full starter's workload, for example.

Very true. But that's why I think GSAA should be the heaviest stat they invest in.

Because it's a counting stat it not only includes workload, but also how good/bad you were when taking into account the danger (and how often) you should be saving goals.

Vas would win today, no question. I don't think him or Rask deserve top-5 consideration though.

 

[Morgs]

how is it useless though? it shows how consistent a goalie is in terms of giving up goals/60. thats very important.

No it isn't. Take into account Freddy this week alone. He has over a 3 GAA, but he also has a +.930 sv%.

.930 sv% would lead the league, where as a 3 GAA would make him one of the worst starters in the league.