Analytics/Advanced Stats Threads

[SnowblindNYR]

Here's a take: I'm getting sick of hearing about shooting percentage.

It was fine when it was in the analytics community and we would use it to call out seasons that were huge anomalies.

Now every f***ing schmoe looks at every guy having a good year and goes "well he's shooting higher..." No shit, guy. It's called variance. Some seasons are better than others.

On a related note, Kreider is only shooting 1.6% higher than he did last year. He's attempted almost 200 more shots. You absolutely love to see that.

Someone on the main boards was like he's shooting a higher percentage and shooting more. I'm like it's either one or the other or both, no shit. What else is there?

 

[Ola]

Small sample size, obviously. Since the TDL, at 5v5 (league rank in parentheses):

58.47 CF% (2nd)
56.84 xGF% (3rd)
1.001 PDO (T-15th) <- 89.69 SV% (27th) + 10.42 SH% (6th)

Pre-deadline, at 5v5:
45.19 CF% (30th)
45.47 xGF% (28th)
1.012 PDO (T-6th) <- 92.96 SV% (2nd) + 8.27 SH% (13th)

If the Rangers finish the season how they've been going since the deadline and Shesty goes back to his early season groove, they'll be a tough out.

Depth matters a lot in this league. It’s not strange, they are on the ice for 1/3+ of the time.

If we traded for Eichel and Vegas improved their depth instead, which team is in a PO spot today, NYR or Vegas?

 

[Ola]

Another thing I would bring up with Kreider is the chemistry he and Ziba is showing.

It’s an area I am picky at, coming from a European background where smart puck possession plays are much more common than in NA (while players are much worse in other areas in Europe). I was for a long time faaar from Kreider’s biggest fan.

But he is playing a very smart game period. He and Ziba are very consistent in what they do on the ice, and are able to solve many high pressure situations enabling them to keep possession and play with the puck rather than without it.

This comes from Kreider being a great student of the game, but also simply from Kreider and Ziba having developed great chemistry over time. They have played together for big parts of 6 seasons right now, right? Or where they apart for any significant stretch after Ziba came here? My memory fails me.

Anyway, my point is just, when we look at how individual players perform in this league — chemistry with linemates — definitely matters. If Kreider and Ziba played together for the first time this spring if we got either of them at the TDL, I would bet my right arm that they wouldn’t be as effective.

A ton of things play into these things, how long it takes to develop, how easy it’s to adopt to a new environment and what not. And arguments can be made both ways, sometimes you can accomplish a lot in a short time, depends on the type of players etc. But when analyzing the game, it’s one of those things that you at least must be aware of that it — can — have an impact.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I can point to 4 things that led to the turn around.

1. The added depth. Copp is basically great at everything we were collectively bad at. Vatrano has been an incredible value add but I'm very skeptical about him keeping this up for much longer. Its entirely possible that he just needed opportunity, but I doubt it.
2. Miller being elite defensively since the ASB. It may be time to pair him with Fox and see where it goes.
3. Panarin coming back to life. Some of this may be tied to Copp, but this was the single biggest thing that this team needed. We haven't had him and Zibanejad going at the same time all year.
4. Quality of competition. They've stomped on a bunch of really bad teams (I know buffalo has been going pretty well lately) but the only playoff team they've seen since the ASB has been Pittsburgh, who have had their own struggles. Detroit, Ottawa, NJ? These teams suck balls. Yes they would get worked pretty good by the bad teams earlier in the year, but they haven't exactly been asked to beat the leagues best (or really even the leagues "good".)

It is pretty incredible how every team they've played lately (and stomp) ends up being the most disciplined team of all time. This is a trend that I don't like as it goes beyond team control. If the first round opponent is Pittsburgh, I'd expect to be out PP'd by at least a 3:1 ratio. It's been really egregious when the Rangers have played them.

With all of that said, tomorrow's game is a very nice litmus test for this team. It's the first time in 3 weeks that they've had more than a day off before a game (I think) and against the lone divisional opponent who is ahead of you in the standings.

Copp is not a PPG+ player, but I don't see why he can't match Strome's production with Panarin. He has good hands and a good shot, this isn't Fast. Strome isn't a world beater either.

 

[Ola]

Someone on the main boards was like he's shooting a higher percentage and shooting more. I'm like it's either one or the other or both, no shit. What else is there?

Yeah, lol, all of these things are tied together. Even +\- is just two steps removed from Corsi. Of all shot attempts a fairly consistent number of shots get through and of all shots that get through a fairly consistent number ends up in the back of the net.

What is the deal with the new possession data that supposedly was coming like a year ago? The data based on computer analyzed camera footage? That will provide some interesting conclusions I am sure, or already are, but when we start to hear about it.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Another thing I would bring up with Kreider is the chemistry he and Ziba is showing.

It’s an area I am picky at, coming from a European background where smart puck possession plays are much more common than in NA (while players are much worse in other areas in Europe). I was for a long time faaar from Kreider’s biggest fan.

But he is playing a very smart game period. He and Ziba are very consistent in what they do on the ice, and are able to solve many high pressure situations enabling them to keep possession and play with the puck rather than without it.

This comes from Kreider being a great student of the game, but also simply from Kreider and Ziba having developed great chemistry over time. They have played together for big parts of 6 seasons right now, right? Or where they apart for any significant stretch after Ziba came here? My memory fails me.

Anyway, my point is just, when we look at how individual players perform in this league — chemistry with linemates — definitely matters. If Kreider and Ziba played together for the first time this spring if we got either of them at the TDL, I would bet my right arm that they wouldn’t be as effective.

A ton of things play into these things, how long it takes to develop, how easy it’s to adopt to a new environment and what not. And arguments can be made both ways, sometimes you can accomplish a lot in a short time, depends on the type of players etc. But when analyzing the game, it’s one of those things that you at least must be aware of that it — can — have an impact.

Marchand and Bergeron would be the perfect example of this in the present moment. Both have miraculously improved year over year after their thirtieth birthdays. They've been stapled to each other for 10 years now. With the rate that players move around, and especially the salary cap, that kind of continuity is an increasingly rare thing.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Depth matters a lot in this league. It’s not strange, they are on the ice for 1/3+ of the time.

If we traded for Eichel and Vegas improved their depth instead, which team is in a PO spot today, NYR or Vegas?

To be fair, Eichel got traded while still injured. Eichel, healthy and in their lineup from early November onwards probably has the Knights comfortably in the playoffs right now.