Analytics/Advanced Stats Threads
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NYRFANMANI
Department of Rempe Safety Management
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Small sample size, obviously. Since the TDL, at 5v5 (league rank in parentheses):
58.47 CF% (2nd)
56.84 xGF% (3rd)
1.001 PDO (T-15th) <- 89.69 SV% (27th) + 10.42 SH% (6th)
Pre-deadline, at 5v5:
45.19 CF% (30th)
45.47 xGF% (28th)
1.012 PDO (T-6th) <- 92.96 SV% (2nd) + 8.27 SH% (13th)
If the Rangers finish the season how they've been going since the deadline and Shesty goes back to his early season groove, they'll be a tough out.
58.47 CF% (2nd)
56.84 xGF% (3rd)
1.001 PDO (T-15th) <- 89.69 SV% (27th) + 10.42 SH% (6th)
Pre-deadline, at 5v5:
45.19 CF% (30th)
45.47 xGF% (28th)
1.012 PDO (T-6th) <- 92.96 SV% (2nd) + 8.27 SH% (13th)
If the Rangers finish the season how they've been going since the deadline and Shesty goes back to his early season groove, they'll be a tough out.
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If I had known we would be this good with just these additions I would have almost considered trading Schneider for JT Miller and really going for it.
Not to be a Debbie downer but we have to consider that we've played weaker competition.
PuckLuck3043
Stairway To Heaven
That really shouldn't matter because we have played better against the better competition, aside from last night which was a dominant performance.
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
while true, the Rangers were not nearly this good early in the season against these same teams. I think the improvement is real, maybe not to the tune of a 58% xG and corsi team, but certainly much better than where they were prior to the TD.
Yes and other than a few injuries to the Pens, the reason our schedule is soft is because we played a lot of good away teams earlier on, so these are the teams that are left. Plus we've been playing Georgiev more often so we have been "shorthanded" ourselves.
From the Miller thread. I've said this all year they have been our best pair. Our top 4 is insane. Better than anything we've had this decade. I think this pairing is officially better than the Staal-Stralman pairing that we've been pining for.
Greg02
Registered User
- Jun 28, 2009
- 4,534
- 4,047
Eh, honestly if we're comparing this D to those of yesteryear, Girardi could have been upgraded on as well. I know it doesn't matter since we won't be playing those teams in the playoffs.
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
The thing is every team has holes. The Blackhawks won three cups with no legit 2nd line center.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
I'm still waiting for the game where we get out-attempted like 78-30 and then that just becomes the norm.
The Rangers have...always done that? Sorry.
At the same time, could it be possible that Gallant is a good coach, AV and Quinn weren't, and we just didn't have the forward depth most of the yea?
I'm sort of looking for the qualitative justification for this turnaround being real. I guess that would be it.
Well you kept saying that it doesn't matter what players or coaches we have before the trade deadline because this is our system.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Fox went from 100th percentile to 96th percentile and people have the audacity to say he regressed.
Nah, bro, I thought he was gonna win 21 Norris Trophies. Can't believe he's slightly worse than that some years.
17futurecap
Registered User
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Well it is f***ing Carolina.You will be in the house for it Tuesday
They were 3rd in corsi when they were a lottery team.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
I mean, adding Copp/Motte/Vatrano, who are actually good/are NHL players was a start. By adding them, it pushed out some non-NHL players from the lineup, as well as push down NHL players into lower spots (but they're still actual NHL players). And that had actual immediate impact.
Forward depth was an issue all year, and where most of the "being caved in" happened. Shore that up, and...well...
It helps when you actually roll out as close to 12 NHL forwards as you can every night, and not the mish-mosh of AHL talent that they had most of the season.But of course now Motte is out, and he's the best player this Bottom 6 has had since Jesper Fast.
But it's still a small sample size, and unfortunately they won't have a full season to see if the impacts are real or not. They have a handful of games left and then it's showtime.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Here's a take: I'm getting sick of hearing about shooting percentage.
It was fine when it was in the analytics community and we would use it to call out seasons that were huge anomalies.
Now every f***ing schmoe looks at every guy having a good year and goes "well he's shooting higher..." No shit, guy. It's called variance. Some seasons are better than others.
On a related note, Kreider is only shooting 1.6% higher than he did last year. He's attempted almost 200 more shots. You absolutely love to see that.
It was fine when it was in the analytics community and we would use it to call out seasons that were huge anomalies.
Now every f***ing schmoe looks at every guy having a good year and goes "well he's shooting higher..." No shit, guy. It's called variance. Some seasons are better than others.
On a related note, Kreider is only shooting 1.6% higher than he did last year. He's attempted almost 200 more shots. You absolutely love to see that.
I can point to 4 things that led to the turn around.
1. The added depth. Copp is basically great at everything we were collectively bad at. Vatrano has been an incredible value add but I'm very skeptical about him keeping this up for much longer. Its entirely possible that he just needed opportunity, but I doubt it.
2. Miller being elite defensively since the ASB. It may be time to pair him with Fox and see where it goes.
3. Panarin coming back to life. Some of this may be tied to Copp, but this was the single biggest thing that this team needed. We haven't had him and Zibanejad going at the same time all year.
4. Quality of competition. They've stomped on a bunch of really bad teams (I know buffalo has been going pretty well lately) but the only playoff team they've seen since the ASB has been Pittsburgh, who have had their own struggles. Detroit, Ottawa, NJ? These teams suck balls. Yes they would get worked pretty good by the bad teams earlier in the year, but they haven't exactly been asked to beat the leagues best (or really even the leagues "good".)
It is pretty incredible how every team they've played lately (and stomp) ends up being the most disciplined team of all time. This is a trend that I don't like as it goes beyond team control. If the first round opponent is Pittsburgh, I'd expect to be out PP'd by at least a 3:1 ratio. It's been really egregious when the Rangers have played them.
With all of that said, tomorrow's game is a very nice litmus test for this team. It's the first time in 3 weeks that they've had more than a day off before a game (I think) and against the lone divisional opponent who is ahead of you in the standings.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
I always figured our relative inability to draw penalties was from never playing offense but strangely, the problem seems to get worse the better we play.
We have had the lean part of the schedule here but I think back to the two (somehow) wins against Arizona where it looked like men vs boys and they were the men. So there has to be some legitimate improvement there.
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
Tomorrow's game is going to be really fun to examine. If we stay toe-to-toe with the Hurricanes who have beaten the breaks off us both games it would signify this team is the real deal.
In addition to what you said @Uninstaaled something Vally brought up during the intermission shows that there is a real structural change in the way they are playing and that this might well be the true Rangers. They were 26th in rush chances or rush offense, I forgot how he defined it, and since the TD they are 5th. That is a massive difference and indicative of something that is sustainable and not just caused by facing weaker competition.
In addition to what you said @Uninstaaled something Vally brought up during the intermission shows that there is a real structural change in the way they are playing and that this might well be the true Rangers. They were 26th in rush chances or rush offense, I forgot how he defined it, and since the TD they are 5th. That is a massive difference and indicative of something that is sustainable and not just caused by facing weaker competition.
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